The sketchy plan to build a Russian Android phone

A Russian tech giant plans to launch new Android phones and tablets.



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[effgee]

There's a pretty expansive national security exception to the TRIPS treaty so I wouldn't get too excited about the WTO getting involved.

https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/27-trips_09_e.htm
Article 73 specifically.

Good point. I'd meant this as more of a theoretical point than anything, since even if any international body decided Russia couldn't just use other people's IP and not pay for it, I'd gladly put down $50 on Putin not giving a fuck and "decreeing" that his minions continue stealing IP from "unfriendly states'" anyway.

 

[effgee]

WTH? Moon-shark-induced double-post, apologies.

 

[Chuckstar]

The USA, arguably the richest and most capable country in the world, cannot build a entirely domestically sourced sophisticated product. Global cooperation is such a huge amplifier of capability and progress that non-participation isn't even worth serious consideration. But apparently it is being considered in Russia.

My point was that it's not just an amplifier of capability and progress, but also quite simply a reducer of cost. The concept of comparative advantage shows us that both sides come out ahead by applying their efforts where they have a comparative advantage, and then trading the excess production (above what they need domestically) with each other.

Just to be clear, the simple economics-textbook examples of comparative advantage tend to result in country A making product X and country B making product Y. We look around the world and see that it doesn't really work that way. In the real world, the optimization function is simply more complex than those simple textbook examples, but still works in the same underlying manner. In the real world, the comparative advantage might result in both countries making some of each product, but not in the same proportion that they consume the product, such that they end up trading the excess with each other.

 

[xoe]

Android isn't just an O/S. It's suite of applications that requires a a Google account to operate. You can copy the O/S but that won't give you access to your Gmail account, Google maps or access to the app store

I don't see anything about a Google account, Gmail account, Google maps, or the app store here: https://www.android.com/intl/en_ca/what-is-android/

 

[tehnoloski_komentari]

Everybody now just makes sure the phones pass thrpigh Armenia or another country that trades with Russia and that makes iPhones and Samsungs still very available there. Not mentioning that reality makes this a shallow article.
Yes, Russia is seeking to make something for the political points, but there is no problem with getting consumer electronics in Russia

 

[coremelt]

China is now fabbing RISC-V chips that are plenty fast enough for a smart phone. eg the Leapfive NB2. It's 12 nanometer but so what? Russia could probably license the design and fab it locally eventually.

But lets face it they'll just buy chinese made complete phones off the big manufacturers, rebadge them and replace the play store with the Russian one.

 

[Albino_Boo]

I don't see anything about a Google account, Gmail account, Google maps, or the app store here: https://www.android.com/intl/en_ca/what-is-android/

For the 4th time in this thread. That's no good to you if you loose the ability to use Googles services that require an account. So if you loose Gmail you loose all your existing email. Hint reading and logic are a thing

 

[Albino_Boo]

China is now fabbing RISC-V chips that are plenty fast enough for a smart phone. eg the Leapfive NB2. It's 12 nanometer but so what? Russia could probably license the design and fab it locally eventually.

But lets face it they'll just buy chinese made complete phones off the big manufacturers, rebadge them and replace the play store with the Russian one.

There's absolutely no way Russia can build a fab that can build 12nm. Selling them a lithography machine is blocked by sanctions and creating the ability to manufacture a lithography machine is decades of work.

 

[Faanchou]

There's absolutely no way Russia can build a fab that can build 12nm. Selling them a lithography machine is blocked by sanctions and creating the ability to manufacture a lithography machine is decades of work.

By Tom's Hardware: last April, one of the short-term goals was to ramp up Russian chip production in 90nm fabrication technology by the end of 2022 and a longer-term goal was to establish manufacturing using a 28nm node by 2030. So yeah, not quite 12nm ready there yet.

 

[effgee]

Everybody now just makes sure the phones pass thrpigh Armenia or another country that trades with Russia and that makes iPhones and Samsungs still very available there. Not mentioning that reality makes this a shallow article. ...

Доброе утро, товарищ марионетка!

You do realize this article isn't an editorial, do you? All it does is report what's been announced by NCC (or its founder), and then put that into perspective with the current situation surrounding sanctions due to Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine and how that would impact the creation of an all-Russian smartphone.

This article is not about whether or not you can buy a gray market $799 iPhone for 82 590 ₽/$1,100 (*) imported illegally by some scumbag smuggler. Impress me and show me how you'll get that thing repaired by Apple under warranty if it fails, and I'll send you a case of vodka.

..., but there is no problem with getting consumer electronics in Russia

Let me go ahead and call bullshit on that one. Since yer own Denis Manturov, Russia's minister for industry and trade (also deputy prime minister, a man of many criminal connections talents), himself said last year that smuggling, errr... 'parallel imports' in 2022 would reach around 4% of Russia's entire 2021 import volume.

"... The full-year parallel imports assessment that Manturov provided accounts for 4.2% of Russia's overall imports... [of] the country's 2021 balance of payments. ..." (source)​

Four-point-two-fucking-percent.

Не волнуйтесь, это все картошка. Товарищ Пригожин будет вами гордиться. Или все равно отправить вас в мясорубку, кто может сказать в эти дни?


(* – edit: now with more sauce)

 

[bolomkxxviii]

I am sure a Russian cell phone will perform just as well as a Russian tank performs against a Javelin anti tank weapon.

 

[dmoan]

Russian gov uses Russian apps to track and keep a close eye on its citizens you can bet this phone now bring that in OS level. Why is that bad? Well people who have challenged Kremlin or even simply achieved business success (you can guess who gets all the money when they die) have a strange habit of falling out of windows.

 

[odikweos]

The USA, arguably the richest and most capable country in the world, cannot build a entirely domestically sourced sophisticated product. Global cooperation is such a huge amplifier of capability and progress that non-participation isn't even worth serious consideration. But apparently it is being considered in Russia.

It's not that we can't, we don't choose to organize that way. It is entirely a matter of philosophy - caring more about efficiency than self-sufficiency. Change the philosophy and change the options.

 

[Captain Trips]

We need to keep a close eye on this; there's a chance we might get to see the world's first smartphone powered by coal...

To paraphrase Stephen Colbert: "Is powered by potato."

I do like the coal powered alternative. Maybe the Pro models will be powered by coal?

 

[raxx7]

By Tom's Hardware: last April, one of the short-term goals was to ramp up Russian chip production in 90nm fabrication technology by the end of 2022 and a longer-term goal was to establish manufacturing using a 28nm node by 2030. So yeah, not quite 12nm ready there yet.

And that was with now sanctioned western sourced suppliers.

There isn't a country on this Earth who can build a 2 digit nm fab without relying on suppliers from around the world.
And when the bulk of the most industrialized nations sanction you, you're going to be missing a lot of critical things.

 

[raxx7]

To paraphrase Stephen Colbert: "Is powered by potato."

I do like the coal powered alternative. Maybe the Pro models will be powered by coal?

They'll be powered by vodka.

 

[Shazster]

Who wouldn't want a smartphone that will likely burn half its processing mining shitcoin, another quarter pushing out ransomware, and the last quarter informing on you to the FSB if it hears the word "Navalny"?

Cool.

 

[Shazster]

Russian gov uses Russian apps to track and keep a close eye on its citizens you can bet this phone now bring that in OS level. Why is that bad? Well people who have challenged Kremlin or even simply achieved business success (you can guess who gets all the money when they die) have a strange habit of falling out of windows.

I predict the top app will be: "Am I too high in building?"

Paired with the smarthome app: "is window closed? IS FUCKING WINDOW CLOSED!?!?" and these things will sell themselves.

 

[effgee]

China has its own lithography machines that they claim can do 10 nm.

No, they do not claim that. At all. Even the [Chinese] source you posted there says:

China created the first independent new lithography machine, which can make 10nm chips in the future.​

"On November 29th, Beijing time, the Institute of Optoelectronic Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced that the National Research and Development Equipment Development Project “Super Resolution Lithography Equipment Development” passed the acceptance test and became the world's first 22nm resolution lithography machine realized by ultraviolet light source. ..."​

The equipment they developed there has a resolution of 22nm. 10nm "in the future"... as in: "not presently". And further down, they also write:

"... ASML equipment still dominates, and domestic efforts still need to work hard. ..."​

So no, China has no 10nm capability.

And if you then look at actual, proven news sources, you find gems like this one from Reuters:

"Beijing is readying a $144 billion fiscal package aimed at supporting tool and machinery manufacturers that are woefully behind Dutch and Japanese rivals. A combination of targeted subsidies and local demand will help. But catching up will be a years-long, if not decades-long, slog. ..."​

Let's stick with reliable news sources and provable facts where possible, yes?

 

[mhalpern]

My point was that it's not just an amplifier of capability and progress, but also quite simply a reducer of cost. The concept of comparative advantage shows us that both sides come out ahead by applying their efforts where they have a comparative advantage, and then trading the excess production (above what they need domestically) with each other.

Just to be clear, the simple economics-textbook examples of comparative advantage tend to result in country A making product X and country B making product Y. We look around the world and see that it doesn't really work that way. In the real world, the optimization function is simply more complex than those simple textbook examples, but still works in the same underlying manner. In the real world, the comparative advantage might result in both countries making some of each product, but not in the same proportion that they consume the product, such that they end up trading the excess with each other.

also applies to advanced weapons, though there are strong geopolitical incentives that influence who makes what parts, few of the more advanced weapons systems are completely produced in a single country. For example the Stryker Mortar Carrier uses an Israeli mortar system, Javelin and NLAW use parts made across NATO and MNNAs and so on

 

[mhalpern]

There's absolutely no way Russia can build a fab that can build 12nm. Selling them a lithography machine is blocked by sanctions and creating the ability to manufacture a lithography machine is decades of work.

also you'd think they'd focus what fab capability they have on import substitution for military systems, not on cellphones.

 

[papito10]

If it was something that Russia could steal, maybe it would work. But I have doubts about their ability to actually build anything. Corruption and graft will cripple every aspect of this project from design to software to production. It won’t be that they can’t make something, it’ll be someone’s desire to make an extra ruble or two that’ll tank this.

I believe Anatoly Chubais was in charge of the previous "russian phone". Or it may have been the first domestic CPU. Either way, the project went nowhere, and Chubais himself already peaced out to Israel.

 

[Oldmanalex]

I wonder if the Chinese manufacturer will make the extra effort to stamp "Made in Russia" in Cyrillic rather than Roman text?

 

[watermeloncup]

There's absolutely no way Russia can build a fab that can build 12nm. Selling them a lithography machine is blocked by sanctions and creating the ability to manufacture a lithography machine is decades of work.

Yeah, Chinese companies basically need to choose between being able to sell their advanced electronics in the West, or getting sanctioned and thus being limited to the Chinese and Russian markets. They can sell on the black market with the former but there is a risk and it's necessarily lower volume. But that doesn't work for something as massive as a lithography machine. Also, isn't China still reliant on ASML for even remotely advanced processes?

Even if Russia somehow got lithography equipment for a relatively modern process, I doubt they'd be able to use it effectively. They've been failing at building an indigenous 65 nm fab for over a decade, and the yields on their 90 nm fab suck despite buying all the equipment from ST over a decade ago. Kleptocracies aren't very good for building extremely complex things.

 

[EBone]

100% Russian phone with 100% spying 100% of the time. That’s 300% better than American phone!

 

[Chuckstar]

also applies to advanced weapons, though there are strong geopolitical incentives that influence who makes what parts, few of the more advanced weapons systems are completely produced in a single country. For example the Stryker Mortar Carrier uses an Israeli mortar system, Javelin and NLAW use parts made across NATO and MNNAs and so on

Exactly. Both that they are multi-nationally sourced and that they aren’t sourced from current/likely adversaries. It’s one of the reasons weapons systems are more expensive than they “seem” like they should be. They’re not made on Foxconn assembly lines in Guangzhou. (Before anyone starts lecturing me, no… it’s far from the only reason.)

 

[John Savard]

I keep being astonished when the sanctions against Russia are listed. Phones under $300 aren't banned? I would think that by now sanctions against Russia should be simple and comprehensive. The full force of the Trading with the Enemy Act, or its equivalent, should apply in every Western nation. If you couldn't export it to Nazi Germany in 1942 from an Allied nation, you shouldn't be able to export it to Russia now. There's a war on, in case people lhave forgotten.

 

[John Savard]

And what exactly will Google be able to do to enforce the terms of their license in Russia? Threaten to exit Russia? Sue them (in Russia)?

Someday, the war in Ukraine will end. So when Russia finally surrenders, so as to resume normal relations with the rest of the world, then they will get sued. So, either they can get sued, or they will be doomed forever to live in a Russia denied access to the rest of the world's technology.

 

[mhalpern]

Exactly. Both that they are multi-nationally sourced and that they aren’t sourced from current/likely adversaries. It’s one of the reasons weapons systems are more expensive than they “seem” like they should be. They’re not made on Foxconn assembly lines in Guangzhou. (Before anyone starts lecturing me, no… it’s far from the only reason.)

it also spreads out the development cost burden, and allows countries to specialize based on what their MIC is configured for, allowing the leveraging of economies of scale, with a larger reliable customer base, that's how the F-35A cost can be lower than contemporary 4.5 gen fighters

 

[Truscott]

You laugh, but potato battery is thing. And when depleted, instead of sending to some far off land to be recycled, you just make vodka!

Russian smart!

How on earth can this reply be downvoted?

 

[DovePig]

[...]
Even if Russia somehow got lithography equipment for a relatively modern process, I doubt they'd be able to use it effectively. They've been failing at building an indigenous 65 nm fab for over a decade, and the yields on their 90 nm fab suck despite buying all the equipment from ST over a decade ago. Kleptocracies aren't very good for building extremely complex things.

Even if they somehow got magicked a possibly working 22 nm lithography machine into Moscow, would they be even able to use it? A lithography machine is not a whole fab – and as I understand it, the higher you go in resolution, the more faster all the other process purity problems, chemical purity problems, clean room problems etc. do really mount up quickly.

Training workers and the whole supply chain from pretty sketchy yields on 90 nm to good yields on hypothetical 22 nm might be a decade or more – especially if your best young tech people are long gone, escaping draft to Georgia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc, while the remaining supply chain is heavily prone to corruption or even still random drafts to the meat‑grinder...

And strongman Xi just suddenly deciding to send over a whole subsidised fab factory with thousands of skilled Chinese workers, its own supply chain direct from China and all that? It seems a bit unlikely. Especially since Xi has its own plans for the "Northern China" territories (read Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and even further), should Russia ever hick up considerably...

 

[Static and Noise]

I keep being astonished when the sanctions against Russia are listed. Phones under $300 aren't banned? I would think that by now sanctions against Russia should be simple and comprehensive. The full force of the Trading with the Enemy Act, or its equivalent, should apply in every Western nation. If you couldn't export it to Nazi Germany in 1942 from an Allied nation, you shouldn't be able to export it to Russia now. There's a war on, in case people lhave forgotten.

The countries that were at war with nazi Germany didn't trade with them. But that wasn't all countries, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland etc traded with Nazi Germany (well, until 1943-44 or so). Oh, and the US traded with Nazi Germany until they declared war, too.

Currently, no Western country is at war with Russia.

 

[randomcat]

Even if they somehow got magicked a possibly working 22 nm lithography machine into Moscow, would they be even able to use it? A lithography machine is not a whole fab – and as I understand it, the higher you go in resolution, the more faster all the other process purity problems, chemical purity problems, clean room problems etc. do really mount up quickly.

Training workers and the whole supply chain from pretty sketchy yields on 90 nm to good yields on hypothetical 22 nm might be a decade or more – especially if your best young tech people are long gone, escaping draft to Georgia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc, while the remaining supply chain is heavily prone to corruption or even still random drafts to the meat‑grinder...

And strongman Xi just suddenly deciding to send over a whole subsidised fab factory with thousands of skilled Chinese workers, its own supply chain direct from China and all that? It seems a bit unlikely. Especially since Xi has its own plans for the "Northern China" territories (read Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and even further), should Russia ever hick up considerably...

Indeed, this sort of equipment is basically scrap without a broad, thriving ecosystem of industrial processes around it and experienced technicians and engineers to operate it. The only reason to go through the trouble of acquiring it would be to look like you're doing something for the higher-ups (and maybe pocket half of what it "cost" for yourself).

 

[Rauth85]

“There's still a lot of competition,” says Counterpoint’s Stryjak. “I don't think there's a huge gap in the market for a new player.”

I don’t understand this analysts assumption that the Russian market is free enough that regular competition theory holds. Can’t Russia quite easily impose import restrictions (tariffs, quotas, bans) targeted to shift purchases to homespun versions? Notions of competition and product equivalence seem fanciful to me. Am I missing something here?

Black market

 

[Rauth85]

The USA, arguably the richest and most capable country in the world, cannot build a entirely domestically sourced sophisticated product. Global cooperation is such a huge amplifier of capability and progress that non-participation isn't even worth serious consideration. But apparently it is being considered in Russia.

Well it could… but it would require spinning up a lot of old nasty resource extraction. It chooses not to, and ceded other industries to international partners, but it could still return to them.

 

[Rauth85]

China has its own lithography machines that they claim can do 10 nm.

http://www.tbcoer.com/en/new/new-43-290.html

I wonder if some of these old accounts posting garbage have been stolen. A lot of that over at slashdot.

 

[Rauth85]

How on earth can this reply be downvoted?

Oh what is the name of that space idle/puzzle game based on potato tech?

 

[Rauth85]

Even if they somehow got magicked a possibly working 22 nm lithography machine into Moscow, would they be even able to use it? A lithography machine is not a whole fab – and as I understand it, the higher you go in resolution, the more faster all the other process purity problems, chemical purity problems, clean room problems etc. do really mount up quickly.

Training workers and the whole supply chain from pretty sketchy yields on 90 nm to good yields on hypothetical 22 nm might be a decade or more – especially if your best young tech people are long gone, escaping draft to Georgia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc, while the remaining supply chain is heavily prone to corruption or even still random drafts to the meat‑grinder...

And strongman Xi just suddenly deciding to send over a whole subsidised fab factory with thousands of skilled Chinese workers, its own supply chain direct from China and all that? It seems a bit unlikely. Especially since Xi has its own plans for the "Northern China" territories (read Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and even further), should Russia ever hick up considerably...

You mean xeihai and xeiing?

 

[Rauth85]

Del. New system not good at mobile.