Tech giants pour billions into Anthropic as circular AI investments roll on

Bongle

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So if everyone knows it's a bubble...What do you do? Sell off all your stonks or what?
In another thread, someone suggested that if you're a boring index-fund investor, move to a "capped" index-fund where no one element (NVDA, etc) can be as super-overweighted as they are in a conventional index fund. This means that when/if the magnificent N deflate, instead of starting from 30% of the index, they're starting from like 5%. Timing the pop of the bubble is basically just a matter of luck. Maybe it was a month ago! Maybe there's another 50% pump still to come.

People knew the 90s dot-com bubble was an irrational bubble for years before it finally popped. Greenspan noted the exuberance in like 1996, IIRC. So you could short it or buy puts, but the market might still have upside which could hurt you pretty bad. Even pros: Michael Burry even announced another big short against AI, and but then wound up his hedge fund this month.
 
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Tapeworm

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PBG4 Dude

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When the AI bubble pops, there's a best case and a worst case scenario. Best case, it deflates gently while Big Tech finds another hype to throw billions at. Minimal collateral damage. Worst case, it crashes hard and makes 2008 look like a picnic.

Looks like these investors are all in for the hard crash.
These two situations are nowhere near congruent. If Microsoft loses their $100B investment in OpenAI, that sucks for Microsoft. These are not collateralized debt obligations where junk debt was mixed with good debt, then sliced up and all sold as good debt.
 
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Oldmanalex

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I worry that the AI bubble will turn out like the crypto bubble, which keeps rising, sucking in huge amounts of capital and energy, then popping and destroying vast amounts of value, then rising again and causing the same problems. I suspect that AI isn't going away any time soon, but neither will it generate much in the way of value for anyone.

This will keep happening as long as the underlying cause goes unaddressed - there is too much money in the hands of very few people, with nowhere to usefully invest it or spend it.
Heaven forbid that the money do anything which might help to improve the lives, and futures, of the ordinary people , whom our masters despise care for so much.
 
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cheetah-spottycat

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These circular investments will abruptly stop when the AI bubble bursts, so which companies, apart from nVidia, will suffer serious harm when this happens?

I thought this kind of roundtripping is officially illegal. Yet, everybody just goes on, fully aware what they're doing, while everybody just watches, equally aware what they're doing ...

What is this, history's most expensive game of "chicken"?
 
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Bongle

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These two situations are nowhere near congruent. If Microsoft loses their $100B investment in OpenAI, that sucks for Microsoft. These are not collateralized debt obligations where junk debt was mixed with good debt, then sliced up and all sold as good debt.
There's a lot of loans from normal-economy sources propping up datacenter construction. If OpenAI folds, then those datacenter companies fold, then those loans go bad. Microsoft/Google/etc are protected because of their financial engineering. A lot of the loans are collateralized with GPUs. Do you think those GPUs will hold their value in a world where datacenters are going under? You'll end up with a bank or private equity firm holding onto a bunch of now-worthless silicon along with a giant cash loss.
 
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$1.4 trillion of whose money?

With the copyright suit and other stuff Anthropic has been in the news for recently, I am kind of surprised these companies are willing to give them more money.
If there's anyone familiar with my posts I'm not surprised, I've been saying they're purposely trying to destroy money in ways that don't give regular people any benefit. No shoes, no shirts, no services, no food. Just getting rid of money without having inflation go off the rails. Why? They see how far away and hostile Mars is and they think it's the cheapest and lowest-effort way to keep Earth habitable for themselves and their descendants. They just need to be able to kill anyone coming at them with pitchforks and torches and they're golden. They know their bank balance doesn't actually matter.
 
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Sam Altman has already said that he thinks of the federal government as "the insurer of last resort". Why anyone should think this is beyond me, except that we've bailed out banks on multiple occasions, auto makers, we subsidize some of the most already profitable enterprises in the world for some reason....and all at the expense of regular people. Always, always, the regular people just trying to get by.
Sounds like Florida brain to me or do other states have a state insurer of last resort?
 
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For those not familiar with the AI circle
data-src-image-ed810554-1dd1-46fc-aecc-9cbd75eb5073.png
Oh no, it has hemorrhoids, internal and external. Anyone have any rubber bands?
 
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wk_

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Imagine that someone asks what is the net amount of cars that entered/left California on a certain day. And someone replies: 5,000 cars entered from Nevada more than left, 3,000 cars net from Oregon, and 6000 cars net left to Mexico. So the total is 2,000 cars? No, it is 102,000. How come? Well, 50,000 cars went from LA to SF and 50,000 cars went from SF to LA. Your immediate reaction would be "that is not how the things work!", but the economists for whatever reason think it is ok and you still let them deal with your retirement money.
 
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