Trump official plots “impossible” deal moving Taiwan’s chip supply chain into US.
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Taiwan pressured to move 50% of chip production to US or lose protection
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They’d probably say yes if we switched recognition from PRC to Taiwan and build some U.S. military bases there.
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I know that this has been said a few times, but why exactly would they do that? Let’s say that China succeeded in invading Taiwan. Taiwan then destroys their most valuable industry? China does not want to take over Taiwan because it has a chip industry, they want Taiwan as they see it as “completing the job” started by Mao.
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Does the world, and the U.S. in particular, need to diversify chip production out of Taiwan, and pronto? Yes. Duh.
Is the way to go about that through tactics that are best characterized as being virtually indistinguishable from a protection racket? No. No, it is not.
Is the way to go about that through tactics that are best characterized as being virtually indistinguishable from a protection racket? No. No, it is not.
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Slightly off-topic, but did anyone notice recently when Trump proposed to double the number of Chinese foreign exchange students studying in the US?
I wonder how he thinks thats going to happen since that is their choice to come here. Also he doesn’t even acknowledge the reality of why he’s being told he needs to do this. That foreign exchange students through their expensive tuitions are largely subsidizing a lot of higher education for Americans to attend at less cost?
I swear my blood pressure rises whenever I hear one of these Trump humpers try to give the president credit for solutions to the problems that he creates.
I wonder how he thinks thats going to happen since that is their choice to come here. Also he doesn’t even acknowledge the reality of why he’s being told he needs to do this. That foreign exchange students through their expensive tuitions are largely subsidizing a lot of higher education for Americans to attend at less cost?
I swear my blood pressure rises whenever I hear one of these Trump humpers try to give the president credit for solutions to the problems that he creates.
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Maybe they should make Taiwan the 51st state instead of Canada or Greenland!
I think we're learning over and over again that, while DJT and Co may have watched Goodfellas, they didn't really understand from it how you run an extortion ring.
"It would be really bad for us if something were to happen to you" is not quite how the line works.
It feels like they keep using the stick when they think they're using the carrot: The tone would be a lot different if the approach were: "Hey guys! We're really committed to protecting you, but we're also really worried about losing access to technology for the military purposes we need them for to protect you. Help us build up capabilities to better protect you. If you do, we'll give you big revenue incentives, help you with capital costs, and have you help us set up factories for you, but here in the US."
We could call it the CHIPS Act, or something.
I think we're learning over and over again that, while DJT and Co may have watched Goodfellas, they didn't really understand from it how you run an extortion ring.
"It would be really bad for us if something were to happen to you" is not quite how the line works.
It feels like they keep using the stick when they think they're using the carrot: The tone would be a lot different if the approach were: "Hey guys! We're really committed to protecting you, but we're also really worried about losing access to technology for the military purposes we need them for to protect you. Help us build up capabilities to better protect you. If you do, we'll give you big revenue incentives, help you with capital costs, and have you help us set up factories for you, but here in the US."
We could call it the CHIPS Act, or something.
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TSMC will play this like every other company that has faced the same dilemma has played it.
They will say "sure thing, we'll start planning now", then let things move at a slow enough pace that they can be cancelled later due to "changing market conditions".
I mean, companies know the playbook. Build goodwill with a plan that is in sync with the administration's pet issues, then quietly abandon the plan later.
Just look at Foxconn's Lordstown EV plant, which was meant to create US manufacturing jobs. Due to "changing market conditions" it has now been sold to a mysterious "partner" and will become an AI data center instead.
They will say "sure thing, we'll start planning now", then let things move at a slow enough pace that they can be cancelled later due to "changing market conditions".
I mean, companies know the playbook. Build goodwill with a plan that is in sync with the administration's pet issues, then quietly abandon the plan later.
Just look at Foxconn's Lordstown EV plant, which was meant to create US manufacturing jobs. Due to "changing market conditions" it has now been sold to a mysterious "partner" and will become an AI data center instead.
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It's an economic nuclear deterrent.
Chip fabs are very complex, expensive and slow to build.
Thus here's very little slack in the global capacity and a lot of them are in Taiwan.
If the chip fabs in Taiwan were to be destroyed then the entire world will suffer through a decade of severe chip shortages until replacement fabs are build somewhere else.
This will hurt everyone including China.
But specially China.
On one hand consider all those smartphones that are assembled in China with batteries manufactured in China.
With Taiwanese fabs gone there will be a shortage of smartphone SoCs so both the Chinese battery manufacturer and the Chinese assembly company will have to stop.
And on the other hand the entire World is going to (correctly) blame China for that mess.
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The US does not have the know-how/talent or infra to handle even 30% of chip fabrication, even in 10 years.
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Ah yes, what is worse Taiwan loses protection or US loses every single microchip? 
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New flash! A "guarantee" from the US is a oxymoron and 100% worthless.
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The GOP voting base willfully failing to understand American diplomatic soft power and interpret it as a waste of money, and further misunderstand realpolitik that anyone not inundated in Fox News could grasp in a few minutes if their lives depended on it (and chances are they do) is not news.
Dismantling globalization instead of giving it to the populist Left to regulate properly at 1950's tax rates with no loop holes and massive estate/capital gains taxes will be the greatest self-blunder of not only this century but the next two after (around 5 or 10 generations) with a larger negative worldwide impact on economic growth than World War 2. This is an undeniable fact, and the GOP was willing to do this on the basis of propaganda bullhorns not properly arrested and put underground in 1973 (Heritage Foundation) and 1982 (Federalist Society) respectively, freedom of speech be damned.
Failure to criminalize those two institutions and the fruits of the poisoned trees flowing therein is why Taiwan is in such dire straits now.
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Taiwan wasn't gifted its dominant position in the chips market. It's not like they come out the ground and Taiwan happens to be in the spot where a huge reserve of chips are. They gained that position through great effort and smart investments.
Maybe instead of strong-arming them try making it such that the conditions are favorable to build it in the US. Isn't it what the free-market you pretend to defend is about?
Nothing looks as much as a declining empire than one that starts trying to change the rules of the game it created when other players get better at their game.
Maybe instead of strong-arming them try making it such that the conditions are favorable to build it in the US. Isn't it what the free-market you pretend to defend is about?
Nothing looks as much as a declining empire than one that starts trying to change the rules of the game it created when other players get better at their game.
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It’s Biden’s. So of course he wants to cancel it. He has another he wants to do with HIS name on it. What’s else can we expect from him?
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One of the problems is what Taiwan said would happen if China successfully invaded, is not to worry because they would blow up the factories and all of the information needed to recreate them, so that China wouldn’t get any of it.
Sure, that’s very reassuring. And then where do WE get chips?
Sure, that’s very reassuring. And then where do WE get chips?
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Secretary of Commerce Howard Buttlick should have his own late night comedy show.
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If China can gain possession of the island of Taiwan, even if the factories are destroyed, it will have in its hands, Dominion over the lives of those with the knowledge to rebuild those factories and the skills to run them.
if history has taught us anything is that authoritarian regimes can be very persuasive in extracting compliance from just about anyone In their possession. The Soviets did as much with the German scientist who were given a choice to either assist in the development of their rocket program, or they can build roads on the way to the Gulag, along with their families.
As far as the whole world being mad at China, well they will just learn to keep their feelings to themselves if China Is able to get the factories rebuilt And now becomes the only source for these chips.
I mean at this point I think we are living in fantasy land if we think that the rest of the world thinks it’s worth it to wait longer for Americans to start producing those chips then the Chinese I mean, that might’ve been the case with our close allies before Donald Trump, but he’s destroyed all of that Goodwill. That’s gone it’s not coming back.
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If Taiwan would comply those whom would set up the factories would be deported by ICE
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I'm sure someone may have already mentioned this, but just in case, here's my thinking:
Taiwan holds all the cards here, at least in the short term - there's no one who can do what they can do at this time. So, Taiwan tells Trump: "Go fuck yourself. If China invades, your national security is shot. You morons don't have the expertise to do what we do."
What's he going to do? even the incompetent asshats in the current administration understand this. Also, the Saudi's who depend on US technology know this - you think they would let this orange doofus endanger their own skins?
So, where's the incentive for Taiwan to play ball here?
As an admittedly a non-expert in geo-politics, how many subtleties am I missing here?
Taiwan holds all the cards here, at least in the short term - there's no one who can do what they can do at this time. So, Taiwan tells Trump: "Go fuck yourself. If China invades, your national security is shot. You morons don't have the expertise to do what we do."
What's he going to do? even the incompetent asshats in the current administration understand this. Also, the Saudi's who depend on US technology know this - you think they would let this orange doofus endanger their own skins?
So, where's the incentive for Taiwan to play ball here?
As an admittedly a non-expert in geo-politics, how many subtleties am I missing here?
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Didn't they already pay a kick back to the orange buffoon? How's that working out for them?
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To be fair, Homer does work in the Springfield nuclear plants control room.
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Actually the Soviets got the German rocket scientists to cooperate by ... paying them and treating them well, better than Soviet rocket scientists.
I guess that they did learn that sending their own rocket scientists to the Gulags was not an efficient way to run a rocket program.
Not only people won't give it "their best" but some people will actively sabotage the efforts. And in something as complex as a chip fab, it's not hard to find ways to subtly sabotage things and put them out of orders for a long time.
So no, China won't get far with trying to coerce Taiwanese into rebuilding the fabs.
Furthermore those fabs require machinery, supplies and support from western-aligned countries.
China will also need the cooperation of those countries to get what they'd need to rebuild those factories.
And with all of those in short supply, everyone will rather see those directed to replacement fabs somewhere more... stable.
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I must say that as much as I criticize Trump and my own country’s missed steps on policy here, there is an odd lack of logic to a lot of the arguments that are made against the US, which seems to be a theme that runs along the lines of you can’t make a profit so don’t even try. That sounds like propaganda to me. And there’s so much misinformation out there and it happens even on these forum as that I suspect where that’s coming from.
Whether the US can make a viable business case for chipmaking remains to be seen. since no one has invented the ability to predict events before they happen, no one can make that claim for certain. If the nation fails on its efforts, I will be the first to concede that was a failure.
However, at the moment, the very investments the US had made with the chips act or was trying to make looks no different than a lot of of those initial efforts early on in all of those nations and around the world, including Taiwan. I’m sure at some point someone could’ve said there was no point in doing that when America was by far and away the leader in that field.
Fortunately, someone was able to make the business case and persuade a very successful American company to plow billions of dollars into the Taiwan industry to build all of that infrastructure which leads us to where we are at today. So there is that.
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You underestimate how much the Taiwanese don't want to be annexed by the CCP. We saw what happened in Hong Kong.
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Practically speaking, the 50% move is good for the whole world because it means humanity doesn't have all its eggs in one basket. Even with no malicious intent, natural disasters or other things could happen, and if Taiwan is crippled then there would be no backup. See also various medical supplies or other things where practically all production is in a single place, and that going offline has no backup. We need multiple sites for everything important.
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So Taiwan is supposed to cede a massive chunk of marketshare that, incidentally, makes them indispensable to rather a lot of people in exchange for a 'pinkie swear we'll still care' signed in sharpie by the guy whose hobby is yelling at yelling at NATO about how we should leave their sorry asses to the wolves?
Call me a humorless member of the reality-based community; but that sounds like an astonishingly stupid idea.
Call me a humorless member of the reality-based community; but that sounds like an astonishingly stupid idea.
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Nuke Taiwan in order to protect U.S. military security.
Now, I freely admit that’s the most ridiculous ‘solution’ imaginable. But that’s the problem with Trump: you can never rule out the most ridiculous ‘solution’ in any given scenario.
And I guarantee he wants an excuse to nuke something. Kegsbreath doubly so.
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When I was a child, the US was the big brother you could trust and looked up to, now it has become a mentally unstable, blackmailing bully 
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How long before China ramps up its chip design and manufacture so that they don't need TSMC? (I've heard good things about their CPU and GPUs) They don't need to catch up, just to be good enough. The day it happens, China will invade Taiwan, and the rest of the world will be in in big trouble.
Maybe the US gvt should treat Intel/Global Foundries as something more than just another source of big, beatiful bribes. They're not the best, but they're still pretty good at making chips.
Maybe the US gvt should treat Intel/Global Foundries as something more than just another source of big, beatiful bribes. They're not the best, but they're still pretty good at making chips.
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Yes-ish. If you ignore their grubby hands all over short-sighted regime changes around the world, their constant warmongering (and actual warring), their iron fist diplomacy (better hidden but almost as bad) and their need for economic control, yes, you can claim they were a benevolent big brother.When I was a child, the US was the big brother you could trust and looked up to, now it has become a mentally unstable, blackmailing bully
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Yes, they're all idiots and they feel no shame about it. The incompetence is the entire point.
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Scary Devil Monastery
Ars Scholae Palatinae
From a slightly different perspective, I got another read out of this;
"So our options are to kneel to Trump and his successors, in a fascist foreign regime likely to be cut from the same die he is and motivated only to gouge us for all we have...or to join China and at least be considered a pseudo-autonomous province under the rule of people with whom we share a culture and society?
<sigh>
Call Beijing and let's start arranging for the transfer of power."
This could, if Trump doesn't pull another TACO, end up with China's hold on chip manufacturing becoming massively consolidated. Taiwan doesn't want anything to do with China but if you told the average taiwanese the alternative was to be the permanent gofer of Trump and the New American Order?
This is why Trump is not a businessman. His "partnerships" end up being more odious than anything the competition can muster.
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Scary Devil Monastery
Ars Scholae Palatinae
...meanwhile, China, soft power artists better than the US at that arena than the US at any time since FDR and Truman, is setting out to be the "Good neighbor" who dominates with heavily skewed but still 'win-win' scenarios all over the world.
Trump is going for "America Alone", not "America First" which is logical since any fascist regime must ensure it has no friends so it can tell its domestic population that it's surrounded by enemies and Dear Leader is all that keeps them from your doorstep.
By the time the US manages to shake off the GOP, chasing all of MAGA into a quarantined wilderness to be as hateful as they like to one another, the rest of the world will still look at the US the same way we look at Russia today - as a nation which can not be trusted with anything longterm since they're apt to at whim elect a malicious clown.
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