Cities are dynamic, not static grids, and urbanization is a "spiky," cyclical, and asynchronous process.
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Sounds like your municipality is doing mixed use wrong?You could give my local municipality all the information in the world and they're still going to insist on "mixed-use" development when there is zero demand for another square foot of retail or office space for miles in any direction and twenty year old developments have not been fully absorbed.
We could just build badly needed housing, but noooo... we're building live-work innovation hubs and check out these renderings of nordic women and european market SUVs on some bullshit Telluride knock-off looking street some urban planners in Denmark came up with.
So instead, nothing gets built, model train nerds have garrisoned a centrally located storefront for their train layouts because it costs them almost nothing and developers are hoarding land waiting for a changing of the guard.
I wouldn’t bother engaging with that person. Their rant about Telluride and Danish planners is bizarre. The fact that they mentioned “European market SUVs” indicates that their post is gibberish.Sounds like your municipality is doing mixed use wrong?
The point is to build at a minimum housing and retail in proportion to what's needed. Unless the problem is that everyone in the area only shops at mega-chains, in which case perhaps some small business incentives could help?
Mixed use really is vastly more pleasant (and healthy) to live in vs. gigantic housing developments with zero retail where you have to drive to do anything, but you have to get the incentives and proportions right.
P.S. A storefront dedicated to model trains sounds fun! You do need some retail to go with it, but it sounds like the perfect draw for kids. Overpriced retail spaces that keep out this kind of more whimsical use of space also aren't necessarily healthy or something to strive for.
Sounds like your municipality is doing mixed use wrong?
The point is to build at a minimum housing and retail in proportion to what's needed. Unless the problem is that everyone in the area only shops at mega-chains, in which case perhaps some small business incentives could help?
Mixed use really is vastly more pleasant (and healthy) to live in vs. gigantic housing developments with zero retail where you have to drive to do anything, but you have to get the incentives and proportions right.
P.S. A storefront dedicated to model trains sounds fun! You do need some retail to go with it, but it sounds like the perfect draw for kids. Overpriced retail spaces that keep out this kind of more whimsical use of space also aren't necessarily healthy or something to strive for.
There are basically two factions that dominate the area, the families who have been out here for a hundred years since it was a railroad resort area
The "factory town" wasn't so much the railroad as the forestry operations, but they didn't survive the great depression.I believe that the original term for those "railroad resorts", back when the railroads had the power of airlines and oil companies combined, was "factory towns". The cost of moving raw goods in was cheap, but the cost of moving anything, especially people, out from the town to the coast was incredibly expensive...except for the railroad owners.
Hence the landowning families and neo-feudal politics. Can't imagine why the middle class knowledge workers, skilled tradespeople, and small business owners have little to no presence, the Industrial Revolution just moved the Deep South further West.
Urgh. Zoning. A decent idea destroyed by regulatory capture.You could give my local municipality all the information in the world and they're still going to insist on "mixed-use" development when there is zero demand for another square foot of retail or office space for miles in any direction and twenty year old developments have not been fully absorbed.
Harvey is in my pantheon. Ars is a great place!Sometimes I read the bibliographic references to studies like this before digging into the substance. I did not expect to find references to Lefebvre, Mumford, Harvey, Elster(?!), Saarinen...
perhaps is could be useful as a broad classification tool, hopefully based not on cultural or ethnic metrics. How do the flows of urban pulse compare between cities and what might that indicate for planning etcIs there a path towards anything predictive here, or are the data effectively just noise?
Agreed. It is an interesting paper, especially because they did root it in Lefebre's work on rhythmanalysis. About the only thing that I'm a bit more critical about is the opening statement that "ubanization is traditionally measured as a static outcome". I don't think that this is the case, most urban planners (and scholars in urban planning) know full well that urbanization is a process that is not static. In fact, stability is a process too (it is the reproduction of the same). I also have questions about the case selection, with Dubai in particular being an example of an 'unnatural' rhythm mostly fueled by petrol dollars and speculation. That said, this is a very enjoyable paper. Thanks for discussing it here, otherwise I might never see it.Sometimes I read the bibliographic references to studies like this before digging into the substance. I did not expect to find references to Lefebvre, Mumford, Harvey, Elster(?!), Saarinen... Props to the researchers for anchoring their work to old(er) urban planning and design scholars. (Elster's a philosopher who has done work in game theory and probability.) Two planners who came to my mind are Kevin Lynch, whose The Image of the City, published in 1960, by its title alone represents the traditionally static approach to analyzing urban form; and Christopher Alexander's Notes on the Synthesis of Form (1964), which maybe anticipates this dynamic approach.
I think it depends also on the cases that are bunched together. The current set up works as a proof of concept. For more rigorous testing of rhythms, they would have to group more similar cases first (e.g., a group of mega-cities, a group of ordinary cities, grouped by geographies and jurisdictions, etc.)So… this sounds like interesting work, but it also kinda sounds like “we put a bunch of effort into quantifying these data but we couldn’t find any useful patterns in it”. Is there a path towards anything predictive here, or are the data effectively just noise?
I may be hallucinating, but it sounds like they found patterns of activity that should have been expected, but were not properly described?So… this sounds like interesting work, but it also kinda sounds like “we put a bunch of effort into quantifying these data but we couldn’t find any useful patterns in it”. Is there a path towards anything predictive here, or are the data effectively just noise?
So it's like how babies grow. Interesting. Genuinely interesting. Should have been obvious, admittedly. And this connects to the whole idea of populations in ecosystems, modeled by the logistic distribution. The cumulative of the logistic distribution being especially useful — like in the activation of artificial neurons. Which, obviously, models a "population" of artificial neurons connected to the dendrites, and provides a good threshold for activation.There are sharp, short-lived spikes in activity, not smooth continuous growth.
No it's not. The world population is trending upwards. The rate of change in the population is trending downwards, but even if it continues to do so, the world population won't peak until around the 2080s, and will be over 10 billion at that point.the world population is trending downwards
Honestly, well done to the "model train nerds". Plus the building owners deserve some credit for even entertaining the idea.So instead, nothing gets built, model train nerds have garrisoned a centrally located storefront for their train layouts because it costs them almost nothing and developers are hoarding land waiting for a changing of the guard.
You could give my local municipality all the information in the world and they're still going to insist on "mixed-use" development when there is zero demand for another square foot of retail or office space for miles in any direction and twenty year old developments have not been fully absorbed.
So instead, nothing gets built, model train nerds have garrisoned a centrally located storefront for their train layouts because it costs them almost nothing and developers are hoarding land waiting for a changing of the guard.
As paraphrased, I don't see the import of this work. An area has already been identified as a city, construction activity is tracked over a span of years, and hey, it doesn't occur at a constant rate. The null hypothesis would be "this activity is random, and randomness creates clusters."Zhu et al. got their data from the NASA Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 databases to analyze new construction, repairs, improvements to infrastructure, green space expansions, and demolitions [...] Their analysis revealed three distinctive “vital signs” for monitoring cities. First, urbanization is “spiky”: There are sharp, short-lived spikes in activity, [...] Second, urbanization is cyclical and non periodic: There are distinct phases of building/expansion [...] Finally, urbanization is asynchronous: [...]
Oh, I thought it was new Joy Division album art.Visualization of Dubai’s rapid expansion as a glowing “urban pulse.” Credit: Zhe Zhu/GERS Lab
So, unlike the vast majority of American municipalities that have very little mixed-use zoning and impose building single-family homes and only that if you want to build much housing at all, even though there would be demand for more dynamic and interesting mixed-use neighborhoods with things like corner stores... your municipality has the opposite problem, that it's been desperately trying to build mixed-use neighborhoods but there is no demand for nothing like housing?It isn't a question of doing it wrong, they have just spent the last thirty or more years pursuing commercial and retail development for which there is no demand and trying to link it to housing, so the result is just that very little housing is getting built because developers aren't interested in adding to the inventory of vacant commercial space. I don't think you could get an apartment building approved of any description without ground floor retail.
There are basically two factions that dominate the area, the families who have been out here for a hundred years since it was a railroad resort area. And the former hippies who turned up here in the sixties and seventies and then returned as well heeled boomers who want everything to be the way they think they remember it.
But the one thing they agree on is a shared delusion that this area is something, anything other than drive till you qualify exurbia. Which it has been for decades. They want to believe that this can be a boutique resort town again, which is ridiculous.
The train dudes can afford to keep their layouts there because there is absolutely nobody interested in leasing the space on commercial terms. To the best of my knowledge they're paying nothing but the cost of insurance and utilities.
I can confirm that this is actually a thing, at least in some areas. I'm in a mid-sized American city, where there is a zoning mandate of some kind that in areas with a certain level of density or a certain project size (not 100% sure on the exact criteria), ground-floor commercial space is required and you can't just build a five-floor residential-only apartment building without a variance.So, unlike the vast majority of American municipalities that have very little mixed-use zoning and impose building single-family homes and only that if you want to build much housing at all, even though there would be demand for more dynamic and interesting mixed-use neighborhoods with things like corner stores... your municipality has the opposite problem, that it's been desperately trying to build mixed-use neighborhoods but there is no demand for nothing like housing?
Either there are major missing pieces to this story (like, this is a small part of a car-dependent wasteland created by single-home-only-zoning in the first place, for instance), or it's so remarkable that I'd like to know more about this place that is like an upside-down average USA town.
That is the entire point of the study. i.e. given the wall of data about the history of a city, how can we analyse it to produce some classification and patterns.I can't help but wonder that if no two city is the same, and none of them develop the same way using these metrics that these metrics are just picking up a bunch of noise.
Then, I did the classic of not reading the study so perhaps there is something groundbreaking I'm missing here.
I can confirm that this is actually a thing, at least in some areas. I'm in a mid-sized American city, where there is a zoning mandate of some kind that in areas with a certain level of density or a certain project size (not 100% sure on the exact criteria), ground-floor commercial space is required and you can't just build a five-floor residential-only apartment building without a variance.
Interesting. This does sound like doing mixed-use developments wrong. If there is already mixed use of space in the neighborhood, imposing minima of commercial space in new developments does seem counterproductive. It would be more sensible to have flexible use, commercial if there is demand for it, otherwise residential.I can confirm that this is actually a thing, at least in some areas. I'm in a mid-sized American city, where there is a zoning mandate of some kind that in areas with a certain level of density or a certain project size (not 100% sure on the exact criteria), ground-floor commercial space is required and you can't just build a five-floor residential-only apartment building without a variance.
My neighborhood, which is fairly walkable, is mainly composed of small, closely spaced turn-of-the-century SFHs but also has patches of older commercial real estate and interspersed larger apartments (mostly newer development). I live in one of several large, newer buildings in a row that have a variance for this mixed-use requirement or started construction before it came into effect. Their ground floors are mostly taken up by some amenity space as well as several walk-up units. There are also other large developments in the general area which didn't get a variance, and have very large, totally empty commercial spaces taking up >90% of their ground floor. Restaurants and shops are located primarily in the existing commercial corridors very near by, with established foot traffic and (I assume) cheaper rent (smaller, older spaces).
Large empty spaces in buildings that aren't bringing in rent revenue are certainly increasing the project cost without a corresponding benefit. If there was no mandate, that space could have been built as housing units that would increase the housing supply and bring in more rent to amortize the building cost. It's not a common problem, but it is an unintended consequence that's reducing supply (when that "extra" space is the difference between a development being profitable or not, so it doesn't get built) in some specific locations.
Ok, so I did go skim the study now. And the point is:That is the entire point of the study. i.e. given the wall of data about the history of a city, how can we analyse it to produce some classification and patterns.
"people have to spend half their income on their mortgage..."
"people live in tiny spaces, such as four adults sharing a one-bedroom apartment..."
-- Steve Inskeep of NPR visits Shenzen, China"a handshake building [where you can open a window and shake hands because] there's another building two feet away"
-- Human Rights Research article"this cycle of abuse, marked by systemic injustice and exploitation, has not gone unnoticed. Its reverberations reach far beyond the UAE's borders, resonating globally as a reminder of the fragile state of human rights in the pursuit of economic gain."