Soldier won $410K in Polymarket bets on timing of Maduro capture, US alleges
- Thread starter JournalBot
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Look, look everyone! See, we are strong tough boi on crime ! Look over there! I'm not doing the same, or worse or picking your pocket while I distract you. No no no ,not at all.
And the idiots will lap it up.
Sure doesn't make you wonder if this guy is just a scapegoat for someone higher up in the admin.
And the idiots will lap it up.
Sure doesn't make you wonder if this guy is just a scapegoat for someone higher up in the admin.
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This is something that a good portion of the Trump administration is doing, but of course only the little people are held accountable for it.
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any details on how they found him?
my understanding is that access to Poly is very restricted inside the US (without a VPN?) and transactions are typically linked to crypto accounts?
I know such things are not 100% private, but he probably jumped through a few hoops to hide his identity
my understanding is that access to Poly is very restricted inside the US (without a VPN?) and transactions are typically linked to crypto accounts?
I know such things are not 100% private, but he probably jumped through a few hoops to hide his identity
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Humans will manipulate anything for profit.
The moment you can bet on something there is incentive to alter it.
Prediction markets are massive grift factories, by their very nature.
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100%
I guarantee that if I brought this topic up, the first thing I would get back is "they're prosecuting that soldier for market manipulation, it seems weird to assume that the administration itself is doing that".
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Problems due to unprincipled gamblers making bets with inside/secret/classified information will eventually force the government regulate and possibly shut down these gambling sites markets.
But we will have to wait, as it will take more than one sergeant. It may require an operation to be blown by large bets tipping off a target. Then the administration will say "no one could have predicted a leak like this ..."
But we will have to wait, as it will take more than one sergeant. It may require an operation to be blown by large bets tipping off a target. Then the administration will say "no one could have predicted a leak like this ..."
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Like Pete Rose? You mean the guy you convinced MLB to make hall of fame eligible again? That guy? The pedophile? That guy? You love him!
That dumb fuck and his cronies/assistants are all making these bets. Why else would the White House tell them not to use prediction markets? The hypocrisy and attempts at gaslighting are infuriating
That dumb fuck and his cronies/assistants are all making these bets. Why else would the White House tell them not to use prediction markets? The hypocrisy and attempts at gaslighting are infuriating
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He used classified information to do this. Problem is that he's very likely not alone.
I wonder how serious this administration is going to take this potential risk to national security
I wonder how serious this administration is going to take this potential risk to national security
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Um. They've proved Crypto is not anonymous. And as it's a public ledger it's 100% Not Private. But this is probably one piece of evidence linking the person to the bet. I'm guessing as this was a substantial bet when the US Government comes knocking of your door. These prediction markets will answer any door to try to claim transparency when the outcome makes them look like they aren't the ones doing the crime and hand over the information.
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they'll take it very seriously - by launching the new $TRUMPMarket prediction market…
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Funny how emphasis goes in the newstitles...
Most play on the "Soldier charged for betting" tune, then a few "...using classified info". Kudos to Ars for stating this correctly...
I find the idiocy of taking the risk of leaking info that can get your people killed by taking bets that make hostile entities' ability to put two and two together to be orders of magnitude higher than the betting itself.
Genuinely curious - can this even qualify as insider trading?
The guy used information about an upcoming military action, but no result of that action was guaranteed.
Are boxers that are overwhelmingly favorites prohibited from betting on themselves winning? This stuff has always been quite foggy to me. An imaginary boxer shouldn't be prohibited from betting on therself just because they feel in great shape, would they?
Most play on the "Soldier charged for betting" tune, then a few "...using classified info". Kudos to Ars for stating this correctly...
I find the idiocy of taking the risk of leaking info that can get your people killed by taking bets that make hostile entities' ability to put two and two together to be orders of magnitude higher than the betting itself.
Genuinely curious - can this even qualify as insider trading?
The guy used information about an upcoming military action, but no result of that action was guaranteed.
Are boxers that are overwhelmingly favorites prohibited from betting on themselves winning? This stuff has always been quite foggy to me. An imaginary boxer shouldn't be prohibited from betting on therself just because they feel in great shape, would they?
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Thanks for the reminder; that quote sounded to me like Trump saying he didn't see anything wrong with what the Soldier did because he didn't bet against the USA succeeding and the context makes that impression stronger.
How long before the guy gets a pardon in exchange for buying $100k worth of Trump-Coin?
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Very seriously - all bets from the White House will be routed through the Atlantic!
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If I were a betting man, I’d be on poly market betting Trump would respect the grift with a stern don’t do it again and pardon him. But maybe the man only does things that benefit him.
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No- these markets rely on insider trading - if there are no insiders the bets aren’t accurate. This a feature not a bug.
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Statistical
Ars Legatus Legionis
If people with information didn't bet to move the odds, it wouldn't be a prediction market anymore than a magic eight ball is.
Even if you agree with the premise of prediction markets has value, the entire concept is based around the idea if the question is "will X happen" that people who know about X will make wagers and that will bias the odds towards the the likely outcome. Now gambler be voting both for and against X just because people like to gamble but those who know would only be betting in the likely outcome so odds should shift to reflect that information. At least in theory. Now personally I don't see any real world utility in prediction markets but to have any utility requires "insider trading".
To be clear though despite the article headlines this soldier was NOT charged with insider trading in the traditional sense. Insider trading is specific to trading of securities (stocks). There is no such thing as insider gambling. The soldier was actually charged with misusing classified information which is a crime no matter how he misused it.
Arguably "markets" involving classified materials should be inherently illegal. The only way they could work to have predictive value is if people unlawfully use classified knowledge so not really the kind of thing we should be providing a financial incentive for. A prediction market on when with New Glenn return to flight also has to involve insider information to be anything but a random guess but that information isn't classified.
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Van Dyke‘s biggest mistake was not being a member of Congress (or an administration official) when placing the bets.
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There is no practical utility. Polymarket says Switzerland will lose Eurovision with their current band but there is no practical mechanism to change the band. This soldier clearly gave Venezuala a heads up the raid was coming and Maduro did nothing. The Mets are clearly on a losing streak in spite of tons of Polymarket “information” about their lineup.
There is no practical mechanism for using any of this “information.” Paradoxically, the bets only carry weight if you know it is insider information.
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Yeah and guess why the government won't regulate Polymarket? Someone called Donald Trump Jr. is on the board.
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Betting platforms like polymarket are causing chaos on even the most banal things. Apparently people were manipulating thermometers in France to win bets (article in Dutch):
Thermometer manipulation in France
Thermometer manipulation in France
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Everyone I know in the military/DoD and adjacent industries immediately knew it was an insider, someone with clearance and eyes on shit they should not be talking about, making those bets. It's not at all surprising.
The question was never was it an insider, it was how high up the chain were they. This guy wasn't close enough to Trump to get away with it, that's all.
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Exactly this. It’s crazy that it’s OK for politicians to use inside information to trade on, but no one else can.
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I don't think that is true. Your premise relies on the idea that forecasting can't be done well/usefully, can't be better in one person versus another, and that ultimately an aggregation of forecasts can't provide any useful utility that exceeds the individual forecast. I don't have a proof handy but it seems totally nuts to draw those conclusions in the age of ML, let alone being so bearish on the powers of us limited human beings.
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You’re okay with unregulated legalized gambling in which corruption and insider trading goes unchecked?
Really?
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How much of that $410k will he have to use to
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pixithacat
Smack-Fu Master, in training
If the leadership is corrupt, corroption is normalized and will tickle down to the lower ranks..
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Meanwhile, Bosnia has been pressured into signing a pipeline deal with a newly created company that just happens to be run by Trump's personal lawyer, without putting it out for tender:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ump-linked-balkans-pipeline-plan-intervention
Emoluments clause anyone?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ump-linked-balkans-pipeline-plan-intervention
Emoluments clause anyone?
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