Russia seems to have lost contact with its first lunar probe in half a century
- Thread starter JournalBot
- Start date
ColdWetDog
Ars Legatus Legionis
Oh no. Not again.
Reuters is reporting that the Russians are reporting that the craft was hit by a micrometeorite.
It isn't just Pureed Carrot that can't be arsed to come up with new excuses.
Reuters is reporting that the Russians are reporting that the craft was hit by a micrometeorite.
It isn't just Pureed Carrot that can't be arsed to come up with new excuses.
Upvote
171
(171
/
0)
Obviously this failed. Ruzzia does not have the tech to go to the moon. Hell, they can barely make a progress capsule that doesn't have holes in it. Their only tech is ancient soviet stuff and that's not going to cut it for a complex mission like that.
Upvote
46
(53
/
-7)
It's not terribly "satisfying" to see failures like this...
Who the fuck am I kidding. I'm getting flashbacks to the 1960's from this when it was all about "beat the Soviets to the moon!"
Different times. Different politics. Same fucking feeling. I wish it was otherwise.
IIRC, when Ars reported the launch, I posted a prediction that "something would go wrong and the mission would fail" (or words to that effect). And though it may be premature to call them out just yet, the countdown to that seems to be underway without much sign of life on the mat.
Russia devotes considerably less resources to their space program than the Soviet Union did. They have had a massive brain drain after the fall of the USSR when their people could still travel mostly freely, and sought greener pastures elsewhere. ESPECIALLY in the technology sectors. That, plus the economic crisis they've experienced due to sanctions imposed after their invasion of Ukraine, means they're shoe-stringing their space program with people who are NOT, on average with the rest of the world, the best in the business.
And it shows.
The QC issues in their MANNED space program ranged from somewhat dangerous to potentially catastrophic, with only luck preventing any deaths. It would be a reasonable guess that they'd devote the most resources to keeping their cosmonauts alive compared to the resources they'd throw at their unmanned propaganda missions.
Given all that, since there seems to have been some major issue on every manned mission in the last couple of years, it seemed very likely (to ME at least) that their lunar mission would end badly.
Hence, the (apparent) accuracy of my prediction.
I SERIOUSLY doubt that Russia would have said ANYTHING about this "glitch" if they had a path to fix it. Any delay would have been explained away as being part of the mission parameters in selecting an ideal landing site (or some other propagandist rationalization). So once it became clear that they'd lost the mission, they report a slight issue, and may not say anything more.
Dictatorial nations hate it when their propaganda efforts go awry. So the less said about it the better. They'd rather people think "Whatever happened to that mission?" than "Holy shit, can't we do anything right anymore?"
They REALLY need to stop using Roscosmos as a propaganda tool at this point. They need to get it through their heads that they aren't the Soviet Union anymore, and they lack the resources and ability to do what the Soviet Union did.
Who the fuck am I kidding. I'm getting flashbacks to the 1960's from this when it was all about "beat the Soviets to the moon!"
Different times. Different politics. Same fucking feeling. I wish it was otherwise.
IIRC, when Ars reported the launch, I posted a prediction that "something would go wrong and the mission would fail" (or words to that effect). And though it may be premature to call them out just yet, the countdown to that seems to be underway without much sign of life on the mat.
Russia devotes considerably less resources to their space program than the Soviet Union did. They have had a massive brain drain after the fall of the USSR when their people could still travel mostly freely, and sought greener pastures elsewhere. ESPECIALLY in the technology sectors. That, plus the economic crisis they've experienced due to sanctions imposed after their invasion of Ukraine, means they're shoe-stringing their space program with people who are NOT, on average with the rest of the world, the best in the business.
And it shows.
The QC issues in their MANNED space program ranged from somewhat dangerous to potentially catastrophic, with only luck preventing any deaths. It would be a reasonable guess that they'd devote the most resources to keeping their cosmonauts alive compared to the resources they'd throw at their unmanned propaganda missions.
Given all that, since there seems to have been some major issue on every manned mission in the last couple of years, it seemed very likely (to ME at least) that their lunar mission would end badly.
Hence, the (apparent) accuracy of my prediction.
I SERIOUSLY doubt that Russia would have said ANYTHING about this "glitch" if they had a path to fix it. Any delay would have been explained away as being part of the mission parameters in selecting an ideal landing site (or some other propagandist rationalization). So once it became clear that they'd lost the mission, they report a slight issue, and may not say anything more.
Dictatorial nations hate it when their propaganda efforts go awry. So the less said about it the better. They'd rather people think "Whatever happened to that mission?" than "Holy shit, can't we do anything right anymore?"
They REALLY need to stop using Roscosmos as a propaganda tool at this point. They need to get it through their heads that they aren't the Soviet Union anymore, and they lack the resources and ability to do what the Soviet Union did.
Upvote
141
(146
/
-5)
The Soviets sent plenty of probes to the Moon. The problem is that Russia can't even measure up to the Soviet space program anymore.
Upvote
120
(121
/
-1)
Not saying that this is what happened, but this kinds of missions that receive commands from Earth, what kind of protections do they have for malicious actors? Could somebody with a powerful transmitter send a replay attack to this spacecraft?
Upvote
12
(22
/
-10)
They're bombing hospitals, schools, residential buildings, theaters.... yeah, I feel the same way. Fuck their entire barbaric system, let it crash and burn.
Upvote
242
(249
/
-7)
Eh. I'm perfectly fine with Russia not being involved in lunar exploration. Or with anything else outside their borders.
Upvote
158
(160
/
-2)
Science is pure and faultless. But unlike spherical cows, science doesn't exists in a vacuum. Scientific achievements can be used for propaganda and for evil.
Upvote
54
(60
/
-6)
I mean it’s Russia. Just copy and paste a few photos from other moon missions, maybe flip a few of them horizontally to make them extra believable. Then say everything is fine and throw a few of the higher-ups from Rosmosmos out of a high rise building and get on with your day.
Upvote
78
(79
/
-1)
Technically and legally speaking, Russia is a successor state of the USSR - UN Security Council is probably the most pronounced example of the fact.
Upvote
45
(55
/
-10)
Upvote
38
(38
/
0)
OneWeb nefariously hid defective components in their satellites that failed after Russia
Upvote
57
(57
/
0)
Putin 2022: "But they told me, three days and our army is in Kiev..."
Putin 2023: "But they told me, three days and our spacecraft is at the Moon..."
Putin 2023: "But they told me, three days and our spacecraft is at the Moon..."
Upvote
140
(141
/
-1)
I was just listening to a podcast about how terrible satellite security often is, and how trivial it is for ordinary people to get access to ground stations - you can literally rent time on a GS network from Amazon or Microsoft.
It's doubtful, but not impossible, that someone took advantage of downtime and sent disruptive commands to the spacecraft. If it broadcasts a rickroll or the bayractar song before crashing, I'm gonna cheer.
note: let me just say this is VERY doubtful. Russia doesn't need any help to fuck things up, and space is hard.
It's doubtful, but not impossible, that someone took advantage of downtime and sent disruptive commands to the spacecraft. If it broadcasts a rickroll or the bayractar song before crashing, I'm gonna cheer.
note: let me just say this is VERY doubtful. Russia doesn't need any help to fuck things up, and space is hard.
Last edited:
Upvote
67
(72
/
-5)
Ahem, technically and legally speaking, that's not as clear‑cut as you make it sound to be. Like any international legal matter, there are a few caveats and objections to it...
Upvote
67
(68
/
-1)
It depends on the spacecraft. Reportedly modern satellites are well protected with security credentials and access controls, but often there is little to no onboard security because a) the now possibly mistaken belief that a malicious actor has no access to deep space broadcasting or receiving (security by obscurity), or b) that there is extreme worry that bitflips to a critical storage area (like where the keys are stored) could lock you out of the spacecraft entirely. For this reason, many spacecraft have the ability to read out and alter arbitrary memory locations via radio, and in fact this has saved several missions.
Probably not a huge worry for a deep space mission, but it's a major concern for orbital resources these days.
Upvote
73
(73
/
0)
Yeah, it was mostly a fait accompli. Russia just sat down in the USSR's position on committees, and unfortunately nobody fought it at the time because relations were good. A lot of things might be different if they had lost some of those veto powers.
Upvote
107
(107
/
0)
Have you ever considered that the inanimate objects might not like being anthropomorphized?
Upvote
146
(148
/
-2)
ColdWetDog
Ars Legatus Legionis
Who? The Ukrainians? They have better things to do. I suppose the Chinese (or the US) could do it but why?
Don't substitute Mylar foil for aluminum....
Upvote
35
(36
/
-1)
One factor of course is that Ukraine and Belarus already had UN membership from 1945. Another that the breakup of the USSR was not a single event, morphing into the CIS with Russia dominant. There was never really a moment to contest the matter even without the policy of other Security Council members to support Yeltsin and ensure a peaceful transition.
But can Russia claim the achievements of Ukrainians just because they happened to be Soviet citizens at the time, or because Russia now claims sovereignty over parts of Ukraine? That is another matter.
Upvote
75
(75
/
0)
I'm pretty sure that if the probe was in a low lunar orbit, it will find a way to impact the surface soon enough. Orbits around the moon aren't particularly stable. What would be awesome is if other countries' probes could find the Russian lander and track it to the very end. Perhaps we can get some spectroscopy of the ejecta and get useful information out of the event.
Upvote
77
(77
/
0)
The soviets had tracking ships to provide coverage. Contact referenced them. Guess they were sold off for mega yachts and hookers.
Upvote
45
(45
/
0)
And russia is a very ... girthy... country, they can increase their coverage by putting receivers on either end. But still, it's not full coverage.
I wonder if someone else sent that thing some updated mission parameters while they didn't look at it.
Upvote
6
(8
/
-2)
Upvote
9
(11
/
-2)
Upvote
15
(15
/
0)
I'd have though the emission spectra of S. tuberosum are pretty well characterised by now, but what do I know ;-)
Upvote
21
(21
/
0)
Well, scientifically there may not even be a difference between luck and random events.It seems obvious that luck (if luck even exists...there's no proof it does...reality may very well be a chain of totally random events) can't be manipulated - otherwise there would be how-to's on YouTube and everyone who watched them would be able to win the lottery, get the girl ánd live happily ever after, just to name some stuff.
Same for negatively manipulating luck known in the US as "jinxing" ..if that was a real thing for example many if not all institutions would employ battalions of jinxers to mess with perceived enemies' luck etc.
Still, in spite of what logic and experience dictate these superstitions remain véry popular.
Interesting creatures, humans.
But that doesn't stop youtube from being full of those how-to's and doesn't stop the net being full of grifters trying to sell you those how-to's.
Upvote
13
(14
/
-1)
I have to admit... My first thought was to wonder what they actually launched.
A functional spacecraft or a bucket of bolts destined for failure?
It is smoke and mirrors over that way.
A functional spacecraft or a bucket of bolts destined for failure?
It is smoke and mirrors over that way.
Upvote
25
(27
/
-2)
Doesn't take a nation state to send commands into space:
https://aws.amazon.com/ground-station/https://www.viasat.com/space-innovation/space-and-networking-technology/ground-network/
Upvote
57
(57
/
0)
Not me. We're way past Schadenfreude by now, and I'd rather Russia be forced to contemplate the consequences of their decisions than them being able to blame (again, but correctly for once) foreign agents and sabotage.
Upvote
39
(42
/
-3)
I'm betting the potato battery didn't last as long as planned. Shoulda used a bigger potato.
Upvote
39
(41
/
-2)
Spacex could probably get a probe there in time to live stream the Russian crash.
Upvote
13
(23
/
-10)
I believe that all sciences use the right-hand rule for defining things like that, so even without a magnetic field there would still be a top and bottom of the axis of rotation. We just happen to call those north and south respectively.
Upvote
71
(71
/
0)