Russia’s space chief is “very unhappy” with “hostile” US policy

"I am very unhappy with the openly hostile policy of the USA toward my country."

Read the whole story

 

[Chuckstar]

Wouldn't china have pretty good air supremacy? Naval blockade. Air and missile saturation if needed, but I bet they think they can win without shooting. .As long as they can keep USN carriers at an ineffective distance, they can soften up the shore and ground defenses. No need to rush. USN subs should be effective, but just too many targets. It becomes a battle of political will, and west is likely to back fown (especially with angry racist bully in charge, he always caves and screams that he won).

For air supremacy you need to be able to suppress anti-aircraft systems, in order to operate in the air with effective impunity. We’re seeing in Ukraine what happens if both sides are able to maintain meaningful AA. Neither can use air power as much besides expensive, long-range heavy artillery (lobbing glide-bombs and launching cruise missiles from out of AA range). That would be an unfortunate turn of events for Taiwan, who would hope to use air power to interdict assault forces and reinforcements while still at sea. At the same time, though, such an aerial stalemate would help Taiwan avoid the problem the Germans had in Normandy — being unable to use maneuver warfare to advantage, due to aerial interdiction of maneuvering forces.

Obviously, there is meaningful simplification in what I’m saying. As well as that the drone situation is ever evolving. So I don’t mean to sound like I have “the all encompassing answer”, or anything. I’m just riffing on some broad parallels.

 

[mhalpern]

For air supremacy you need to be able to suppress anti-aircraft systems, in order to operate in the air with effective impunity. We’re seeing in Ukraine what happens if both sides are able to maintain meaningful AA. Neither can use air power as much besides expensive, long-range heavy artillery (lobbing glide-bombs and launching cruise missiles from out of AA range). That would be an unfortunate turn of events for Taiwan, who would hope to use air power to interdict assault forces and reinforcements while still at sea. At the same time, though, such an aerial stalemate would help Taiwan avoid the problem the Germans had in Normandy — being unable to use maneuver warfare to advantage, due to aerial interdiction of maneuvering forces.

Obviously, there is meaningful simplification in what I’m saying. As well as that the drone situation is ever evolving. So I don’t mean to sound like I have “the all encompassing answer”, or anything. I’m just riffing on some broad parallels.

also worth noting, the drone factor, you will be seen, and any unit can have organic CAS

 

[Chuckstar]

also worth noting, the drone factor, you will be seen, and any unit can have organic CAS

Until someone figures out efficient anti-drone defense. But we’ve been back and forth a million times on that, so neo need for a repeat.

 

[mhalpern]

Until someone figures out efficient anti-drone defense. But we’ve been back and forth a million times on that, so neo need for a repeat.

thats just the counter-counter measure problem, efficient drone defense just means improvements in drones and drone tactics to counter said defense, like say a zat resistant drone that seeks out sources of high intensity microwave emissions, cant use them all the time, and ideally it'd be more for locating for other munitions to deal with, but you get the idea. you may be able to create pockets where enemy drones are sufficiently suppressed, but they'll just make themselves known elsewhere.

 

[DanNeely]

It's been a while since we've had one of these:


Radio Yerevan is asked: is it true that Finland has a higher purchasing power than we do in the Soviet Union?

Radio Yerevan answers: On the contrary, the Soviet people can afford to buy all the stores empty, in Finland the store shelves are always full.

 

[Cthel]

Wednesday morning's missile/drone attack report from Ukraine:

• 7x Iskander-M/S-400 SAMs (6 intercepted)
• 123x Shahed aerial torpedoes & decoys (71 intercepted, 40 decoys crashed)

Spoiler: Telegram Embed (UKR)

View: https://t.me/kpszsu/28631

 

[Cthel]

Counterintelligence's work is never done

SBU exposes top FSB rat in its ranks! The traitor was detained this morning personally by the SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk

As it turned out, the head of the SBU Anti-Terrorist Centre Headquarters was working for the enemy.

Vasyl Maliuk said that the SBU had documented 14 episodes of the ‘rat's’ illegal activity.

The SBU Head personally was a member of the operational-investigative group that developed the traitor and led the operation to detain him. Vasyl Maliuk directly reported on all stages of the special operation to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

"It was an extremely complex development and subsequent multi-stage implementation, during which we used all possible overt and covert forms and methods of our activities, as well as the entire possible palette of operational and technical measures. Using encrypted software bookmarks, we penetrated the traitor's gadgets - mobile terminals and computers. We actually lived with him, conducted audio and video monitoring. In the process of all this, we managed to qualitatively document the collection and transmission of relevant information by the traitor to the enemy," said Vasyl Malyuk.

The SBU has also been using the traitor to pass disinformation to the enemy for a long time: first as part of counter-intelligence measures, and later as part of criminal proceedings.

"The SBU's self-purification continues. No matter how hard the enemy tries to infiltrate our ranks - he thinks he has all the possible forms and methods of secrecy - he will not succeed. Because we detect and document them in a timely manner.

The SBU will announce the details of this special operation in the near future.

Spoiler: Telegram Embed (UKR)

View: https://t.me/SBUkr/14091

 

[The Dark]

Wouldn't china have pretty good air supremacy? Naval blockade. Air and missile saturation if needed, but I bet they think they can win without shooting. .As long as they can keep USN carriers at an ineffective distance, they can soften up the shore and ground defenses. No need to rush. USN subs should be effective, but just too many targets. It becomes a battle of political will, and west is likely to back fown (especially with angry racist bully in charge, he always caves and screams that he won).

Taiwan has a lot of air defense systems, both imported (Patriot, land-based Sea Sparrow launchers, Skyguard, Stinger, Chaparral) and domestic (Sky Bow, Antelope, Land Sword). Even if China can keep the Taiwanese Air Force grounded, the air space is still going to be spicy. And keeping Taiwan grounded will be a bit of an open question, because it's so large. Ukraine had around 75 fighter aircraft pre-war, with around 50 MiG-29 and the remainder Su-27. Taiwan has around 250 between F-16 Block 72, Mirage 2000, and F-CK-1 Ching-kuo. China is a sharper foe than Russia, but Taiwan has a stouter shield than Ukraine. It probably wouldn't be enough in a long, determined conflict, but it probably is enough to prevent a short, victorious war.

 

[Cthel]

Taiwan has a lot of air defense systems, both imported (Patriot, land-based Sea Sparrow launchers, Skyguard, Stinger, Chaparral) and domestic (Sky Bow, Antelope, Land Sword). Even if China can keep the Taiwanese Air Force grounded, the air space is still going to be spicy. And keeping Taiwan grounded will be a bit of an open question, because it's so large. Ukraine had around 75 fighter aircraft pre-war, with around 50 MiG-29 and the remainder Su-27. Taiwan has around 250 between F-16 Block 72, Mirage 2000, and F-CK-1 Ching-kuo. China is a sharper foe than Russia, but Taiwan has a stouter shield than Ukraine. It probably wouldn't be enough in a long, determined conflict, but it probably is enough to prevent a short, victorious war.

Also, Russia had a land border they could invade over - China will have to land any heavy armour using specialised heavy landing ships.

Taiwan just has to stop those ships from reaching the shore (either by sinking, or plausibly threatening to sink them) and the PRC forces will be limited to light infantry and amphibious IFVs/light tanks.

(I'm disregarding the possibility of airlifting in heavy armour using strategic airlifters, because if the PRC has enough air dominance to pull that off, the war is already over)

 

[The Dark]

Also, Russia had a land border they could invade over - China will have to land any heavy armour using specialised heavy landing ships.

Taiwan just has to stop those ships from reaching the shore (either by sinking, or plausibly threatening to sink them) and the PRC forces will be limited to light infantry and amphibious IFVs/light tanks.

(I'm disregarding the possibility of airlifting in heavy armour using strategic airlifters, because if the PRC has enough air dominance to pull that off, the war is already over)

Which is also a reason for some of Taiwan's "weird" mix of equipment. The CM-11 is an M60 chassis with an M48 turret and the fire control system from an Abrams. It's relatively light firepower, since it's a 105mm rifled gun, but it's very very accurate. It's not very effective against a modern heavy tank, but it will be able to plink those amphibious tanks or IFVs from very long ranges. Heck, they still have M41 Walker Bulldogs in service (pretty heavily modernized to include decent optics), with 76mm main guns, because even that can be effective against the sort of things they're likely to face if the heavy landing ships can't get to shore.

 

[vhoracek]

Danish Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (Defense Intelligence Service) annual report: Russia is preparing for a potential military engagement with a European NATO country over the next two years. It is not currently capable of active engagement in two separate conflicts, so any activities are pending the cessation of hostilities in its war with Ukraine. On such conditions:

• in approximately 6 months [from the end of war in Ukraine], Russia will be capable of fighting a regional war with another neighboring country,
• in approximately 2 years, it will present a credible threat to one or more NATO members, and will be capable of fighting a regional war with multiple NATO members in the Baltic region,
• in approximately 5 years, it will be prepared to engage in a large-scale war in the European theater where the USA would not get involved.

Full report in Danish (pdf, 3 pages)

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

Gonna have to be a whole lot of honest answers inside Russia before such planning could work. And honest answers can be hazardous to one's health.

 

[Disordered]

Danish Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (Defense Intelligence Service) annual report: Russia is preparing for a potential military engagement with a European NATO country over the next two years. It is not currently capable of active engagement in two separate conflicts, so any activities are pending the cessation of hostilities in its war with Ukraine. On such conditions:

• in approximately 6 months [from the end of war in Ukraine], Russia will be capable of fighting a regional war with another neighboring country,
• in approximately 2 years, it will present a credible threat to one or more NATO members, and will be capable of fighting a regional war with multiple NATO members in the Baltic region,
• in approximately 5 years, it will be prepared to engage in a large-scale war in the European theater where the USA would not get involved.

Full report in Danish (pdf, 3 pages)

"The economic and material support from China and the support from North Korea and Iran with troops and weapons systems, respectively, are increasingly contributing to freeing up resources for Russia's rearmament against NATO."

russia as China's surrogate. With the USA likely isolationist.

 

[Gunman]

Hegseth says return to Ukraine's 2014 borders 'unrealistic'
A lot of rather vague and non-committing statements here that could go either way. Not good for Ukraine, but I guess it could be worse given... you know.

As a side note this guy is utterly slappable. What a smug ass.

 

[KGFish]

Following the Russian loss development more closely these days.
https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0...-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_c5qlea6e4c?s=ry-bX2eFilo

7 day rolling average of Russian casualties has stabilized near a 3 months low. The length of the dip is also unusual, as 7 day rolling averages normally shoot up quite fast from their lows when we look at the normal operational cadence of the last 6 months. Total combat engagements have also dropped. Oddly, tank losses are above their 6 months average.

My best guess right now is that Russia is taking a break while Putin is talking with Trump who is dangling a whole-sale surrender of Ukraine in front of Putin. The timing is convenient, given how the Russian assaults look like right now. The increased tank losses are possibly tied to the overall fighting going on in Kursk. I expect Russia to use more tanks there and Ukrainians to find more tanks in their assaults.

 

[chanman819]

Counterintelligence's work is never done

Spoiler: Telegram Embed (UKR)

View: https://t.me/SBUkr/14091

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ssu-exposes-top-ssu-official-on-high-treason/

I think their official story

 

[chudan]

Trump demands $500 Billion in mineral wealth in exchange for funding military aid to Ukraine.

"Sounds good, Donaldo. In exchange for $200 Billion in aid, we'll grant a 30 year mining / extraction lease in Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and the left bank of the Dnipro in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia."

"But wait… there's more… Would you be interested in a 30 year lease for a naval base on the west coast of Crimea?"

"You have 30 years; your time starts now."

https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-demands-500b-in-rare-earths-from-ukraine-for-support/

edit: it's safe to assume that Donaldo will play both sides, and negotiate in bad faith. The offer of the naval base is something that Russia can't / wont offer.

If I was Ukraine, I would take the deal with the contingency that rights don't kick in until after Ukraine recovers it territory and they get the arms. Then renege on it at the first opportunity after Ukraine has recovered it's territory and remind the world on how many international agreements Trump reneged on.

 

[mhalpern]

well according to the latest HLC, Ukraine (probably) one upped Israel in explosive supply chain attacks.. by selling explosive FPV head sets...

to be clear the headset was explosive.

 

[brionl]

If I was Ukraine, I would take the deal with the contingency that rights don't kick in until after Ukraine recovers it territory and they get the arms. Then renege on it at the first opportunity after Ukraine has recovered it's territory and remind the world on how many international agreements Trump reneged on.

Hard disagree. If somebody is an unreliable treaty partner, don't make treaties with them. Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[mhalpern]

Hard disagree. If somebody is an unreliable treaty partner, don't make treaties with them. Two wrongs don't make a right.

with trump you could demand the treaty be ratified by Congress

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

with trump you could demand the treaty be ratified by Congress

Congress itself isn't looking too credible these days.

 

[vhoracek]

Estonian foreign intelligence service has also published its report and assessment of external security threats for 2025. Available here in English, also downloadable in PDF.

10-point executive summary:

1. Russia continues to mobilise resources and rebuild its mass army. Should the war in Ukraine end favourably for Russia, or if hostilities are frozen, it is almost certain that Russian military units will be permanently stationed along Estonia’s borders in greater numbers than before 24 February 2022. Russia is committed to advancing drone technology and integrating drones extensively into its armed forces. This increases the threat to Estonia and NATO. Drone production in Russia remains dependent on Western components.
2. Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine and instead seeks to maximise its fear factor to sway Western decision-making. Russia’s nuclear threats have not yielded the desired results, and this is causing frustration among the country’s leadership.
3. Russia’s ruling elite maintains domestic control through increasingly forceful repression. With the ongoing war, development in sectors outside the defence industry has stalled, and domestic tensions are rising. Russia’s “war economy boom” is likely to come to an end in 2025. As Russia’s focus is on its war in Ukraine, its ability to prevent Islamist extremism and thwart terrorist attacks at home is limited.
4. Russia’s leadership cynically perpetuates the claim on the international stage that the war in Ukraine could have ended as early as 2022. Russia assumes that the international community either lacks knowledge of or has forgotten the state of negotiations when they collapsed in 2022. Russia’s disinformation campaigns are gaining ground among countries in the Global South. The Belarusian regime’s dependence on the Kremlin is deepening.
5. With Russia’s official contacts with the West impeded, Russian academics have taken on a larger role in back-channel diplomacy, serving as discreet conduits for communication with Western diplomats and think tank representatives.
6. Russia seeks to restore Moscow’s control over most of the South Caucasus to gain access to strategic infrastructure in the region. One of the keys to achieving this is the subjugation of Georgia.
7. The UAE has become a hub for Russian economic activity, offering opportunities for business and sanctions evasion, alongside relatively frequent political, military and intelligence interactions.
8. Russia has launched a sabotage campaign against the West to undermine support for Ukraine. Russian propagandists are also aiming to reignite fears of a “nuclear winter” – a theory widely explored in the 1980s – among Americans in 2025.
9. The FSB is responsible for the security of Russia’s armed forces and other militarized institutions through its military counterintelligence branch, VKR, which recruits informants from both Russian and foreign nationals.
10. China views Ukraine as part of Russia’s sphere of influence but only provides selective support to Russia in the information war, guided by its own strategic interests. For China, Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine would represent a victory for its main rival, the United States. The Chinese Communist Party uses scientific collaboration as a tool to acquire Western technology and strengthen its capabilities.

 

[mhalpern]

Congress itself isn't looking too credible these days.

true, but its MUCH harder to back out of a ratified treaty. the executive cannot do that unilaterally, because said treaty is law.

 

[brionl]

true, but its MUCH harder to back out of a ratified treaty. the executive cannot do that unilaterally, because said treaty is law.

You'd think that, but the First Felon cancelled the North American Free Trade Agreement in his first term. Even though it was ratified with a pretty good majority by both houses.

 

[David Mayer]

Congress itself isn't looking too credible these days.

Fine, make the ratification a constitutional amendment. Surely that will be honoured!

 

[numerobis]

You'd think that, but the First Felon cancelled the North American Free Trade Agreement in his first term. Even though it was ratified with a pretty good majority by both houses.

NAFTA had a renegotiation system, so the U.S. was following the treaty in killing it (same as Paris, WHO, etc). And really USMCA is just the new name.

More to your point, the Trump team (particularly the Musk team) is straight up violating the constitution lately. The executive needs to take care to execute the laws. It clearly isn’t.

 

[numerobis]

well according to the latest HLC, Ukraine (probably) one upped Israel in explosive supply chain attacks.. by selling explosive FPV head sets...

to be clear the headset was explosive.

People pay good money to get haptic feedback.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

If I was Ukraine, I would take the deal with the contingency that rights don't kick in until after Ukraine recovers it territory and they get the arms.

WUT?

NO.

Sign over mineral rights to currently-Russian-occupied territory - and the clock on those rights starts NOW.

Puts time pressure on the US to make Russia GTFO of Ukraine.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

and F-CK-1 Ching-kuo.

Okay, so Taiwan deliberately named their fighter aircraft "Fuck China" with the barest minimum of cover.

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

Fine, make the ratification a constitutional amendment. Surely that will be honoured!

Um, about that.
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/23/nx-s1-5270572/birthright-citizenship-trump-executive-order

 

[David Mayer]

Um, about that.
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/23/nx-s1-5270572/birthright-citizenship-trump-executive-order

I really shouldn't have had to put a /s

 

[vhoracek]

I really shouldn't have had to put a /s

You really shouldn't have, but this is the 2025 and the surreal is the new real.

 

[Cthel]

Thursday morning's missile/drone report from Ukraine:

• 140x Shahed aerial torpedoes & decoys (85 intercepted, 52 decoys crashed)

Spoiler: Telegram Embed (UKR)

View: https://t.me/kpszsu/28701

Not sure if it's included in the "decoys crashed" total above, but it looks like one drone landed in Romania, just south of the Romania/Ukraine/Moldova triple point

JUST IN: At least 1 Russian drone violated Romanian/NATO airspace, according to Romania's defense ministry.

One of the drones may have crashed on Romanian territory and a search will be carried out in the morning.

Spoiler: Twitter Embed

]View: https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1889836029215162794[/twitter]

 

[tucu]

The US deployed its LNG Peddler in Europe this week demanding that we buy more LNG and announcing that Ukraine is now Europe's problem. I guess we will have to comply for a while while we accumulate enough Chinese solar panels to swat the peddler and his LNG dream out of existence.

 

[vhoracek]

Thursday morning's missile/drone report from Ukraine:

• 140x Shahed aerial torpedoes & decoys (85 intercepted, 52 decoys crashed)

Spoiler: Telegram Embed (UKR)

View: https://t.me/kpszsu/28701

Not sure if it's included in the "decoys crashed" total above, but it looks like one drone landed in Romania, just south of the Romania/Ukraine/Moldova triple point

Spoiler: Twitter Embed

]View: https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1889836029215162794[/twitter]

The drone that crashed/landed in Romania might've been targeting the river port in Reni or the adjacent Odesnaftoprodukt oil terminal.

 

[Cthel]

Apparently, two drones also ended up in Moldova

#BREAKING Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that Russian drones violated Moldova's airspace with two drones exploding on its soil

Spoiler: Twitter embed

View: https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1889943154100761004

Not sure if they're included in the "52 decoys crashed" either

 

[Gunman]

The US deployed its LNG Peddler in Europe this week demanding that we buy more LNG and announcing that Ukraine is now Europe's problem. I guess we will have to comply for a while while we accumulate enough Chinese solar panels to swat the peddler and his LNG dream out of existence.

I wonder if China is going to reverse stand on Ukraine so that it can ensure a more peaceful and stable Europe to sell stuff to as a replacement for USA.

 

[Cthel]

Finally, some good news out of Germany again

Germany’s Helsing to deliver 6,000 HX-2 strike drones to Ukraine

Spoiler: Twitter embed

View: https://twitter.com/Defence_blog/status/1889992938064957921

The HX-2 kamikaze drone seems to be roughly equivalent to Russia's Lancet loitering munitions, but with on-board target recognition software to enable it to function in a high-ECM environment up to 100km from the launch point.

 

[numerobis]

Paul Warburg dives into Siberia. He goes into two scenarios: Siberia separates, or China takes over.

He points out that China has annexed an island that was neutral under an old peace treaty.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jOnBf4xxkKw

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

I wonder if China is going to reverse stand on Ukraine so that it can ensure a more peaceful and stable Europe to sell stuff to as a replacement for USA.

They'll just keep selling to both sides.