Again, the historical context for the establishment of colonies was always economic. Why did those European nations establish forts to claim territory? Because of the resources those territories held, whether something as mundane as timber, or of greater value, such as gold and furs. If there wasn't anything of value there, they wouldn't have invested the resources to claim and develop them. There are plenty of places on Earth that none of the colonizing powers tried to claim and develop, because they were economically worthless. Today, if your thesis is correct, Antarctica should be overrun with military bases, and hordes of tourists descending upon it. There are a lot of scientific bases, and some tourists do visit, but there are no Antarctic colonies, and likely never will be. Even though it is far more hospitable than the Moon ever will be, and slightly easier to resupply, it is still not economically viable to establish a colony. There will be scientific outposts on the Moon, but I doubt they will be continuously occupied, especially if the US sticks with SLS to put the boots on the ground.