[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=24332987#p24332987:12nzzcyn said:
Grieviant[/url]":12nzzcyn]The two most troubling things about the error in the economics paper:
(1) It wasn't caught until 3 years after the fact, the damage of the paper being used to develop austerity recommendations that influence millions of people already being done. Then, once people started poking further into some of the assumptions and questionable exclusions of available data sets in the paper, more questions were raised as to the validity of its results. Meanwhile, the authors steadfastly maintain that none of this has a serious impact on its general conclusions, as if the numbers don't mean a thing (0.5% reduction, 2% growth ... what's the difference?). The authors were even gracious enough to say "we're not mad at the other researchers who found our mistake". Give me a break.
The paper wasn't peer-reviewed and the data wasn't really available. The data used to attack the paper was provided to the authors directly by Reinhart-Rogoff so that they could study it - it wasn't easily available. Source:
Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems
Oh, and an
academic counter to it came out six months later, as cited by
Herndon et al.. I think the academics wrote off the paper early and moved on.
From what I'd read of it, this seemed more a case of non-academics, i.e. pundits and politicians, grabbing something they liked and running with it. The paper itself supposedly doesn't try to to show causality, which is a problem since it seems reasonable to assume that a country in economic trouble might run up some debt too. Krugman's been going at it all week on his blog.
I agree, though, that the academics should have gone after it once it got picked up by the public -- demanding the spreadsheets, etc. -- if for no reason than professional pride since people who hear about this just end up trusting academics less, ignoring the pundits and politicians' role in this. Part of the problem is that the general public is perfectly fine with the highly filtered news they get, and isn't willing to really get into details.
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=24332987#p24332987:12nzzcyn said:
Grieviant[/url]":12nzzcyn](2) That highly paid researchers actually use a program like Excel for scientific computing. Perhaps I'm simply ignorant of the accepted 'tools of the trade' for Economics work? There are myriad math and stats packages that seem better suited to the job. Using the right tools does not eliminate the chance of mistakes, but it certainly reduces it.
If they'd been by convention compelled to require the data with the paper, even in excel format, this would have been quashed back in 2010, instead of academics going "Well,
my data" is better than your data" and not really getting anything accomplished. The data, and the decisions in how to treat the data are part of the argument, indeed the most important part in papers like these, and it's silly to not include it when it is the heart of the argument. It's trivial to include files on journal websites.
I think not normally releasing data is the heart of this problem but the coding error was probably just a case where the problem has grown a little beyond what a spreadsheet is good for -- simple plotting and maybe a little data analysis.