Perpetual Defense Thread (Defense & non-commercial Space Nerds ITT)

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ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Yeah if China wants to tank it's economy and the global economy.

That's meaningless. If there's no political/military counterbalance, then China does what it wants in the West Pacific and East Asia without consequence. Hell, it's doing it right now in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Japan is looking at developments there and nervously eyeing the Senkaku Islands and the aircraft carriers and submarines China is building, and the only thing keeping them from full re-militarization and even potentially nuclearization is the knowledge that they have the US Pacific Command backing them up.

I would be extremely surprised if Japan did not already work out a "Achieving Nuclear Deterrence" contingency plan decades ago. Especially since they would start from the most advantageous position -- the only non-nuclear power that would come close is Germany, and even they would be IMHO slower than the Japanese -- possible to develop such an option:
They have a quite capable solid-fuel rocket platform; NASDA has launched an experimental re-entry vehicle for their abortive Shuttle program; and they certainly have the most advanced nuclear engineering knowledge base of any non-nuclear power.

Frankly, given their isolated geographic location and absent credible US backing they would have little other choice than to activate that plan, sooner or later.

Though I would argue that the first steps towards said credible backing would be to 0) stop wasting money on job programs for the MIC and 1) elect a Commander-in-Chief with an attention span longer than a squirrel.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
I'd doubt that any of the 'small' conventional local players (Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar) did it, unless they were fronting as useful idiots for someone else.

They're not some irregular forces that can hit and fade away, they have too much valuable infrastructure (read: stuff that is big, expensive, easy to hit and easy to damage) to loose, and too few assets to protect it against the Saudis, let alone the US.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
But it's a dangerous game signalling to potential adversaries that we think our own Navy can be so easily evaded.

Nah, it isn't that. Any capable adversary would look at the situation and instead decided that one of the following to explanations is the more likely one:

1) The current US leadership either cannot read maps, or do not grasp the implications.
2) The current US leadership actually can both read maps and grasp the implications, but they believe that their average voter is too dumb or too trusting, and hence believe their statement will be accepted at face value instead of being recognized as the lie it is.

Both are time-honored traditions, and the second not only towards voters but also against politicians who should really know better. Go read Caesar's Bellum Gallicum. There are lot of passages where he writes he had to come to the defense of some tribe allied or friendly to the Romans and being threatened by another tribe, and hence had no choice at all (poor Gaius) but to subjugate the tribe threatening their ally. Every time you run across one of those, go and look at a period era map that includes rough estimates where each tribe lived.

9 out of 10 cases, Caesar was full of shit. The tribes weren't near each other.
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ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Burst is nice if you want to transmit sensor data back, or when you need to transmit new orders, but if you want to place a remote human into a realtime decision making loop, that just isn't going to work out; the best you can do is the ability to perodically update the order queue, and hope that the times you won't be able to due to LoS issues are not too limiting.

Additionally, the only way you could do passive positioning (ie not reliant on external, man-made emissions like GPS) accruate enough to work with multiple airborne transmitters is using some sort of terrain-map and ground-sensing; even night-time astro-inertial navigation would be rather too unprecise for mediating rx/tx set alignment on something like a narrow-beam laser.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Drones being the future or not is debatable but I really suspect there really won't be a 6th gen fighter for other reasons. I think we're really reaching the limits for what we can do with manned fighters if only because they simply can't perform any better without turning the pilot into chunky salsa in the process.

There's also the question how much machine vision will eat into the viability of fighter-sized (or larger) stealth aircraft:

The reason why you cannot use the traditional solution to better armor -- a better cannon, or in this case, either a more powerful emitter or higher receiver gain -- to overcome radar stealthing is that, in addition to the returns you want, you get a whole lot of other clutter that you can't really tell apart from the aircraft.

However, a precision tracking mount, high quality optics and an automated image classifier might change this: All of a sudden you do not need rely on radar returns alone to classify a target; instead, you use those radar returns to direct your optical rig, feed that sensor data into a machine vision system, and classify off of that.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Machine vision is great and all, but at the end of the day, it boils down to where we as a society feel comfortable with a human decision nexus ending and a machine decision nexus begins. Drones that don't feature full autonomy (like the ability to determine when to use lethal force) require a communication path back to humans we charge with that decision. Drones WITH full autonomy to determine use of lethal force really is the science fiction trope brought to reality.

And yes, I get that we have long-range missiles that remove humans from that decision making process...but only so much. In those cases, humans still enjoy an abort option and a fairly close proximity in time to the intentional kill decision. With a fully automated drone, you have separated humans from that decision process to a much greater degree of both time and now also intent.

This wasn't what I was working towards to, but I can understand why you'd think that way. Let me explain:

In such an environment where radar stealth for fighter-sized or larger airframes is largely countered by machine vision, a 6th generation fighter built around existing doctrine and continuing the development path of the 4th and 5th generation aircrafts would only be as survivable, but probably more expensive, as its predecessors.

Hence, developing it would be pointless, because it no longer would offer a qualitative advantage over earlier generations. A doctrinal dead end, if you will, and extricating yourself from it would require a successful challenge to current military orthodoxy, and a doctrinal change.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Haven't doctrinal changes long been driven by feasibility?

Historically, doctrine was mainly driven by influental individuals or events successfully challenging current military orthodoxy. Politics and facts on the ground in other words, not feasibility analysis conducted without the benefit of hindsight.

This is especially true in a context where there is much money to be made by maintaining stasis and little -- the cynic might add 'important' -- blood spent or endangered by it.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Oh Boeing, how the mighty have fallen. It's the incompetence that keeps on giving. Anyone have ideas what is wrong with the Remote Vision System that it can't keep the boom steady?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...lemon-that-its-trying-to-make-lemonade-out-of

Meanwhile the A330 MRTT (the competing Northrop Grumman/EADS bid that was initially selected in the first round, before Boeing threw a hissy fit) is busy fuelling aircrafts. Sure, it may have been slightly larger than the USAF would've wanted, but it works; that ought to count for something.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Yes, but you are assuming rational actors. After the last few years everyone should see that's not a safe assumption at all.

Especially since most conventional, direct (ie no proxy) wars fought by large industrialized nations were lost by the side that started it:

France started (okay, was goaded into it by Bismarck) the Franco-German war and lost it.
Russia started the Russo-Japanese war and lost it.
China started the first Sino-Japanese war and lost it.
Austria started the first World War and lost it.
Japan started the second Sino-Japanese war and lost it.
Germany started the second World War and lost it.

No rational actor would choose to start a war they would loose, hence we can assume that none of the instigators hand planned on it. Therefore, we must either conclude that in the majority of cases the decision to start a war either was not a rational decision, or it was a rational decision but the deciders failed to properly assess the situation.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
There are still plenty of poor people in China.

The problem isn't purely economics.

Rather, the problem with the "we have reserves" approach is that it presupposes a soldier that is smart enough to fire their weapons effectively at the enemy, while being dumb enough not to realize when they're senselessly being thrown into the meat grinder. This wasn't much of a problem for either the Soviets or Nationalist/Communist Chinese when the then state-of-the-art weapons could be effectively utilized by barely literate peasants.

"Unfortunately", modern weapon systems require an education, with the accompanying risk of developing critical thinking skills, to use competently. The Chinese try to counter this through providing an education while also indoctrinating their soldiers, but perhaps surprisingly, the have a problem rather similar to the US:

The US hasn't fought a conventional war against a capable enemy for a long time, only constabulary wars that then drag them down into asymmetric warfare. They don't know how well their doctrine or equipment would fare against an oponent capable of offering significant conventional resistance. Meanwhile, the Chinese haven't really fought a war against an enemy genuinely able to shoot back, and hence inflict large amounts of casualities on their soldiers, in a long time. They don't know how well the indoctrination of their soldiers will hold up once they start to get killed by the job lot.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
The thing about boats though is what we have been saying in this thread for years, all the traditional ones are obsolete in any kind of symmetric conflict because they are just too easy to sink. That goes for the US Navy, but it also goes for the US Navy copy the Chinese are putting so much effort into. They are making a 20th century fleet that's not going to fare well in a conflict today. Now, it's useful to them in peacetime the same way the US Navy is useful to us, but if they try an invasion the Taiwan Straight is going to just be explosions. Taiwanese artillery and missiles, US missiles, bombs, cruise missiles, drones, and subs. It won't matter how many missiles China can throw if they can't get any troops across the straight and keep reinforcing and supplying them. I don't think we would nuke the straight, but we have conventional bombs that are as powerful as smaller nukes.

My inkling is that China building a mirror of the US surface fleet suits the Pentagon just fine. A conventional fleet structured along similar lines to the US Navy would certainly be the easiest to deal with, for much of the reasons why the British thought the Anglo-German Naval Agreement were to their advantage.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
lol, that picture also fails to break out the PRC and Taiwan into separate bits.

That picture either is intended as propaganda, rubbish, or both. The problem doesn't even begin with just failing to break out Taiwan, because while that perhaps demonstrates the creators intents, the biggest problem is something else: The picture kinda tries to be a representation of clusters of production, but defines the nodes inside those clusters purely on socio-geographical boundaries instead of economic interdependence.

A more realistic assessment based on economic ties would probably be:

* South Korea, Taiwan and Japan should be their own cluster. In any case they're certainly more economically connected with SE Asia (South Korea) or the US/Europe (Japan, Taiwan) than with the PRC.
* Levantine and Arabian states form their own cluster: Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Egypt are probably equally connected to most other clusters on the northern hemisphere, meaning it makes the most sense to break them out like this. Arguably. Turkey fits in there well because its economic alignment doesn't neatly break down between Europe and Asia.
* Russia and Kazahkstan probably need to have their own node. They have their own Free Trade zone, too, the Eurasian Economic Union.
* India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore have more in common with each other than they have with the PRC. Actually India for example has more in common with the Near East than with India (UAE/India + Saudi/India trade flows > India/PRC trade flow)
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Your point 4 is almost undoable now; consolidation has killed realistic competition among defense suppliers.
Our European allies maintain their own industries to draw upon, if we wanted to go nuclear. Politically impossible, though.

The Navy already kinda-sorta did: The Constellation class frigate essentially is an enlarged and upgunned version of the French/Italian FREMM, and is built by an US-subsidiary of Fincantieri.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
lying down on their stomachs for god knows how long with their heads bent back so they can see out their little window.

There exist purely passive, optical solutions for that. For example in climbing we use prism-based belay glasses, enabling the person belaying the climber to keep the head level instead of having to look up for extended periods of time. Also, the US Navy just called, they're talking about a strange device called a ... 'periscope', I think this is what they're calling it. ;)
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
It is slightly more complicated than that.

Australia always fancied nuclear propulsion for the Collins replacement, but didn't believe it was politically feasible after Fukushima. So they went to the French and asked for a conventionally powered version of the Barracuda that could later on converted to nuclear propulsion. Obviously this conversion option makes the design variant more complex, and makes it both more expensive than a straight conventional design (if the option is not exercised) and a straight-up nuclear design (if the option is exercised)

Australia also insisted on initially 90% of the built being done using Australian labour, later on being downgraded to 60% or even less. The French claim that this partially is because of the difficulty finding competent local industry, Australia obviously claims that this isn't the case. In any case, having the sub built entirely in the designer's "home shipyards" is going to be cheaper than involving local industry, due to less friction costs, less infrastructure standup costs, and better economies of scale.

Meanwhile, the only way Australia will be able to procur UK or US subs with a delivery date anywhere near 2030 will be if they're having the things built in the UK or in the US with little to no involvement of Australian industry. Had they asked the French not to bother with an Australian jobs program and just build the things in France, they'd have gotten a much better price. A more stable delivery timeline, too.

If you're placing a requirement on supplier A and then order from supplier B while forgoing that requirement, and claim it was because supplier B offered a cheaper price, you shouldn't be surprised if your original supplier is making some rather unkind statements.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Not part of NATO

Wot? :high:

France withdrew its military forces from the NATO unified command structure in 1966, but remained within NATO. Had the mutual defense provisions been triggered, France would still have been obliged by treaty to contribute to the response, with the difference being that the French troops would have been under French command.

You could argue that de Gaulle was being de Gaulle, but frankly, after the US's Trump episode it is much harder to fault de Gaulle's motivations.

In any case France returned their forces to the unified command structure in 2009.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
I don't know internal Australian politics outside of some conservative shysters being currently in power ... and honestly I don't care how they are going to internally clean up the mess that this corruption reeking previous undertaking left behind. Just from an outside perspective this was absolutely the right decision. Also opening up naval resupply bases for US/UK is strategically a good idea.

Idiots accidentally killed the Australian car industry, and needed a replacement program. The French obliged, and offered 90% of the contract volumne being spent on local work. This was an Australian jobs program in all but name. Unfortunately the same idiots only later realized the requirements for local talent working on cars and local talent working on submarine parts is, uhmn, slightly different, hence the downgrade to 60% of local work, and a lot of cost ballooning to make even those 60% possible.

And lets not get into the idiocy of buying a conventionally-powered, bespoke version of a nuke sub instead of buying a straight-up conventional or nuke design from the get-go.

There's also the delightful angle: The Australian navy has staffing problems, and struggles to man its six Collins subs, which require about 50 people to man. A Shortfin requires about 60 per boat, but an Astute or a Virgina requires about 100 to 120. There's a 1 million AUD per additional crewer cost being bandied about.

--

Another aspect that so far remained entirely below the radar: There are French overseas territories with about 2 million French citizens living there. The French were always going to be pissed about loosing the sub contract, but loosing it in a way where a new regional partnership in a region where they have their own obligations is created, while they're being left entirely in the dark until a couple hours before the press release, even though there was opportunity to directly talk from head of state to head of state for both the UK and the US ... yeah, that's gonna do it.

This makes the comments upthread about the need of containing China and the "German problem" even more cringe-worthy: France is the only European country that does overseas foreign policy worth a piss, and unlike the UK will never be seen as merely doing another country's bidding (whether this perception of the UK is accurate or not is a different question, but it very much exists in too many countries around the world for it to be discounted).

Obviously, you'd want them on your side for this purpose. Instead you showed them up, in a collosal cockup. Had Trump being doing this, you all lot would've been up in arms about heads needing to roll over at State -- and you'd have been right. Heads need to roll over at State for this.

What's worse is how utterly pointless this whole fuckup is. It is an entirely unforced error.

Economically, due to work sharing, France was never going to get the majority of that money either way, due to local work clauses. Its basically an almost-done deal that the Constellation variant of the FREMM will go into mass production for the US Navy. DCNS builds FREMMs as Aquitaine class for the French Navy. The solution almost suggests itself.

Geopolitically, you had Biden talk directly to Marcon. How about mentioning it in advance, and offering to at least include some sort of 'mutual basing arrangement' bollocks. It'd even have been genuinely useful to all three other countries, because the possibility of basing out of Noumea (New Caledonia) would've partially made up for the nuke subs almost certainly getting excluded from New Zealand waters.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
If B-52's don't need to be stealthy, why would a replacement need to be stealthy?

Because if your replacement bomb truck is no more survivable in a hostile or contested environment than your current one, and maintaining your current bomb truck (for example by re-engining it) is less expensive than building the replacement bomb truck, then keeping your current one around is the rational choice.

And the only way to improve survivability of a bombtruck in non-friendly skies is by stealth or by improving its damage resistance. The B-52 already does damage resistance pretty darned well, so that leaves stealth as the only option.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Trimarans are better passenger ships than car ferries:

Due to their stability properties they tend to produce less sea sickness, and if you're ferrying troops having fewer of them spending the journy barfing out their guts is an advantage. But especially compared with a catamaran, there are some good (and rather obvious) hull configurations for catamarans with large&low car decks that simply don't work for a trimaran.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++

Interesting article, but it fails to make one key argument:

While it does point out some serious shortcommings in the RN decisionmaking, it doesn't actually argue how the CVA01 cancellation and the decision to forego the Shangri La lease negatively affected the UK. Going forward with either might have forced some changes on the RN as ancillary measure, but the possible potential for a side benefit doesn't make for a compelling argument.

Unlike France, which remained much more involved in Francafrique than the UK did in British Africa and hence had a use-case for power projection in the South Atlantic, the only real use-case the British had for a "proper CATOBAR carrier" lay east of Suez, and British policy already favoured the disengagement from South-East Asia for reasons entirely unrelated to carrier aviation. Without an independent-from-the-US[0] naval deployment in SEA those ships would've been hulls looking for a purpose.

However, Britain's finances weren't the best at the time, so from an economic perspective Britain would've needed non-US partners. There were two choices available, at that time, both revolving around aligning foreign and economic policy with each other:

0) European foreign policy alignment by pursuing reproachment with France and mend fences with the Gaulists to create a stronger European block within NATO (path not taken), and economic foreign policy alignment with the EC (path eventually taken, after being delayed by de Gaule for a decade because of bad blood)
1) Overseas foreign policy alignment by orienting yourself with powers outside of Europe (path taken), and continuing to value overseas economic ties with the Commonwealth over European economic integration (path not taken)

The UK chose to not align economic and foreign policy.

By choosing to align its foreign policy to the US, it prevented the creation of European partnerships. A French/Dutch/British cooperation that was directly with each other instead of each of them being a defacto solitary partner to the US through NATO could've created composite navy perhaps capable enough to perform significant independent long range deployments to SEA. Furthermore the existence of such a block may have spurred Germany into a naval interest beyond purely European waters -- tho it is understandable that at that time the news of 'renewed German naval interest' may not have been entirely welcome in London. In such a context, having your own 'proper' carriers would've made sense.

By choosing to align itself economically with the European Community and throwing Australia and the rest of the Commonwealth under the bus, it robbed itself of local allies. Had it not done so, the carriers could've provided the nucleus of a composite navy this time fleshed out by local SEA partners and bases.

The conclusion of this is that the UK robbed itself to do anything useful with those large carriers, through choices unrelated to the carriers or even the RN in general, and hence not building them was an entirely cromulent course of action.

[0] If you accept dependence on the US for naval aviation then the choice to focus on supplementing the US Navy in ASW warfare is an entirely rational choice, by allowing you to focus on one task you can get reasonably good at without diverting funds into a program you can't afford on your own anyway.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Officially, yes. Unofficially we have no idea what a lot of the hardware they have up there can do. More realistically, even if we don't have anything up there I would be shocked if we don't have stuff sitting in a warehouse ready to go up. Technologically, we've been capable of kinetic bombardment weapons for quite a while, with basically nuke-scale destruction without the fallout. I don't know what would happen that gets them to pull the trigger on opening that can of worms, probably all out war with China at the least. Once a lot more stuff starts going up into space, then it's going to be a lot harder to keep it demilitarized, and a lot easier to hide stuff up there under the guise of being something innocuous.

Kinetic bombardment devices are a nice concept, and have the advantage of not violating the Outer Space Treaty, but the logistics involved in deploying them on a usable scale are very hard.

Simply put there's no way to deploy a significant number of Thor shots undetected: Because of ammunition weights -- Pournelle's original concept proposed a tungsten rod with a mass of approximately 8 tons -- launching more than one or two would take a significant number of launches. A Delta IV could transport at most 4 into LEO, and that is without any other cargo that you'd probably want as a cover operation.

This is further complicated by the fact that you'll want those rods to stay up there until and unless a strike is ordered -- it'd be hard to overstate how much of Bad News an accidental or otherwise uncommanded deorbit of one would be. Likewise, if one or multiple devices encountered a problem that'd require disposal, you can't really do this by deorbiting them: Besides the risk of getting it wrong there'd be no way to hide it; the deorbiting would be quite brilliant.

So you might want a higher orbit with less orbital drag, you'll want a lot of fuel for maintenance burns, and you'll probably want redundant systems for placing it into a graveyard orbit. That's a lot of extra mass.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Having said that if you left enough mass in orbit you could probably rig something electric which could push a "projectile" off at enough speed to deorbit, but none of this will be precision rapid targeting anything. Maybe spin it up and time the "detachment" to provide extra kick?

Surprisingly that doesn't help with anything unless you want the accelerator to be semi-disposable: Magnetically accelerating a projectile would impart the same impulse in the opposite direction on the accelerator, pushing it into a higher orbit, as it would impart on the projectile being deorbited. To counteract this you'd need to fire the station-keeping engines. Launch platform mass would be irrelevant -- a heavier platform would experience less orbital boosting, but the counterburn would require roughly the same amount of fuel as for a lighter platform because while the heavier platform's delta-v would be lower its mass would be higher.

The fuel consumption would be roughly the same as if you'd just have slapped a deorbiting engine onto the projectile and deorbited it the conventional way. Sure, that'd make the engines disposable, and theoretically there could be some mass-savings because the engines on the multi-shot launch platform would be re-usable, but the hardware for magentic acceleration (don't forget that this would produce significant waste heat, and cooling in orbit is a problem) would also require significant mass.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Only a theoretical EU navy could operate such a beast, and, in this case, it would make more sense to build our own to not be dependent on the US anyway.

Even if such a theoretical EU Navy would exist, and wanted to operate a carrier, we wouldn't want a Nimitz. Yes, there's the "not being dependent on the US angle", and yes, if we wanted such a ship we'd probably ask the French to build it for us instead, but that's besides the point.

The point is, we wouldn't have a use for it. The three most likely military conflicts the EU will have to face in the next couple decades are either 1) a conventional war with Russia, or 2) some sort of asymmetric/hybrid proxy war on the dirt of some dirt-poor Eastern European country (looking at you Ukraine and Belarus), or 3) an entirely asymmetric war in Africa.

One notes that the conventional aspects of 1) and 2) are much better fought with land-based aircraft, and as far as some sort of naval aviation in the asymmetric scenarios of 2) or 3) are concerned, a carrier the size of a Nimitz is ridiculously oversized. If one wants to have some sort of naval aviation asset for this type of job, something like the Italian Cavour or the French Mistral are clearly much better fit.

There's of course also the potential for a future armed conflict involving China and other Pacific states friendly to us; however, the timeline of such a conflict makes it exceedingly likely that anything a cold war era carrier could accomplish is to be target to be sunk.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Furthmore, a concerted counter offensive wouldn't necessarily be a direct action against the troops: Forcing your opponent into logistical or economic problems so substantial that they have no choice but to withdraw will dislodge them just as forcing them out by direct confrontation would. And for all the united front Russia and China present in the media, Putin knows that his position vis a vis Xi is precarious, and not necessarily one of equals. There's only so much being bankrolled by China he can accept before becoming a defacto Chinese client state.

On the long term Russia also has the big problem that demographics are destiny. Russia's population is at best stagnant, at worst decreasing. Issues like widespread drug use and social customs that favour tribal violence result in a Russian male life expectancy more than a decade shorter than female life expectancy. The 1993 to 2003 age cohort, which is currently in prime military age, is also much smaller than the preceeding or succeeding age cohort; any larger losses there would likely have outsized demographic consequences for decades.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
This is definitely true for Russia right now, but from a longer-term strategic point of view it's much more true for China. Russia right now has a 1.6 birth rate, well below the 2.1 required to maintain population, and it's been there for a while. China, however, has a catastrophic 1.15 replacement rate.

Given the sheer size of the Chinese population, I don't think this will have much effect on military capability for quite some time, but it's a looming issue in many ways.

China's economy is, compared to its neighbours, sufficiently advanced by now that they could conceivably solve this with immigration. The living standards it can offer compares favourably to India and SE Asia. Whether they could adapt sufficiently culturally and socially to welcome foreigners, who knows. But at least economically the option would be feasible.

Meanwhile, mass immigration to Russia on economic reasons just isn't gonna happen.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
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If the competence displayed by the useful idiot/trollfactory employee upthread is comparable to their 'fancy new Armata' drivers then the Ukrainian's got them licked in no time. ;)

edit: Suggestion to the mods: For such obvious troll links, maybe we could replace the http:// with a hxxp://; this does not censor, but prevents indexers and similar from picking up the link. This is also commonly used in the infosec scene for posting links to potentially/definitely dodgy sites.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
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Yeah. Probably because Rheinmetall doesn't know what they want to use.

I'm sure they'd like to use a system of their own but their current ADS is side-facing so any top-facing Rheinmetall ADS would be vaporware at the moment.

The Rheinmetall system (based on what public data is available) essentially is metal powder formed into a jet via an array of explosive charges. The jet itself is steered by timing the individual charges, and the whole launcher is a solid-state panel with no moving parts, and there's no reason why you couldn't install an upwards-facing panel.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Why would a hypersonic vehicle not be able to use GPS? The only reason an off-the-shelf GPS device in the US is speed and altitude limited is software. GPS receivers are probably still on the US munitions list, so it's either make none of them able to do high speed and altitude and sell them worldwide, or have a protected supply chain with audits and paperwork for every. single. one. and then sell only with permission from the US Gov't.

A hypersonic missile's shockwave ionizes the air around it, producing a plasma layer that is opaque to certain bands of frequencies. Theoretically this could also include GPS (or Glonass, at it may happen) frequencies, rendering it unable to receive positioning signals.

ICBMs get around this because that plasma layer is a cone conforming more or less to shockwave propagation around the missile, and due to their downward trajectory is "open" towards space, while the cone of something like a sea/terrain-skimming cruise missile would be open to the back.

This also has implications for the types of terminal guidance available to a hypersonic missile: Whatever sensor you use for terminal guidance must not operate in a band the plasma layer is opaque to, and since the sensor is most likely directly at the front it needs to be able to resist very high temperatures for at least a short period of time (you can just use a heatshield shroud until your INS tells you you are close to the target)
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
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Cancer is one thing you probably don't need to worry about with that gun. The acute toxicity will get you when it leaks, assuming it doesn't explode first.

Isaac Asimov, in his foreword for John Clark's "Ignition!":

Now it is clear that anyone working with rocket fuels is outstandingly mad. I don't mean garden-variety crazy or a merely raving lunatic. I mean a record-shattering exponent of far-out insanity.
There are, after all, some chemicals that explode shatteringly, some that flame ravenously, some that corrode hellishly, some that poison sneakily, and some that stink stenchily. As far as I know, though, only liquid rocket fuels have all these delightful properties combined inton one delectable whole.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...forces-doomsday-plane-competition-2023-12-01/


The rest of the article is mostly about how much money Boeing has lost on fixed price contracts, which is why they... are no longer competing for this fixed price contract. I'd say the quality of Boeing's management probably deserves a mention in that discussion, but oh well.

Welllll ... maybe.

Look, there are some things being hawked at fixed price contracts that really shouldn't be, because what they're really trying there is not just to keep the company from fleecing you on cost+, but to also impose discipline on the purchaser-side by getting the vendor to push "not in scope, file a change request" back on your own guys.

Thing is, if that is all you can come up with to control scope keep from your own guys is ... I suppose it is better than nothing, but it really is a piss poor way of doing business when compared to actually knowing what you want to have built.

This goes tripple if you're actually doing a research/product-development project instead of "I want to buy <x> more of <quite clearly defined scope you can put in a req doc>" that is the most appropriate type of project for fixed price

When we do fix price contracts, we usually make good money on them, frankly often more money than if the customer had bought based on times&material, due to successful risk management converting priced in risk to extra margin. In 10 years I can remember one project that was a bit iffy because someone (no longer with us) screwed the pooch a bit, but even on that one we were able to pressure the client into covering most (I think 90%?) of the shortfall by simply offering to build it to spec as ordered and walk away from all the change reqs unless they came with better terms -- because the loss taken by the client due to their bad spec would've cost them more. The problem with playing hardball on contract terms is that there's only a multiplayer mode to that game, no singleplayer, and your business partner gets to play it, too; it is a game where both sides can lose, and often do.

I don't think we'd ever do guaranteed maximum price contracts; that's just asking us to accept risk without getting paid for accepting the risk. No, thanks, do that one in house. Or give it to one of the bottom feeders that'll bid on it; we'll be happy to do a T&M project in 3-5 years to fix the trainwreck those guys will deliver, tho. :)

So be very careful here what you wish for, because you might get something that'll end up costing the tax payer more than if you went with T&M, even if you get to say you negotiated a firm fixed price.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,726
Subscriptor++
Missing the forest for the trees.

Per customs, international treaties (SOLAS convention) and national laws passed in order to comply with treaty obligations all ships must receive distress signals, if received must respond to them if able to, and if not able to must relay both the distress signal and note why they cannot respond. Whether the ship in question is a PLAN or a Coast Guard ship does not matter in the eyes of the law.

PLAN vessels are notorious for shitting all over that.
 
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