Pacifying US, Taiwan weaponizes chip access, targeting South Africa first

South Africa has 60 days to meet with Taiwan to avoid export curbs.

See full article...

 

[Atterus]

Cry harder Xi.

 

[Cycledoc2210]

And just what does Taiwan expect if China become aggressive and say blockades their country. Under Trump the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally. Check Ukraine and NATO if you doubt me.

Becoming aggressive with South Africa accomplishes nothing except maybe feeding Trump's/Musk's racist accusations which in turn will push the South Africans further towards China.

 

[julesverne]

If Taiwan's chip diplomacy against South Africa is an attempt to demonstrate loyalty to Trump's demands for more assertive anti-China action, then Taiwan is making the classic mistake of desperate allies, namely appeasing an unreliable patron at the expense of long term strategic viability.

Taiwan is fighting for its existence, ergo its attempt to maintain some semblance of support from the one nation that could help it in the event of a takeover attempt from the Mainland. But Trump is transactional and has no ideological bond to the value of a democratic and independent Taiwan. Or any other nation. He has demonstrated that for all to see in the Ukraine context. His effective abandonment of Ukraine sends an unmistakable signal to Beijing that American security guarantees are personal, conditional and revocable and not based on strategic imperatives.

I want there to be a pathway to maintain Taiwanese independence. But the country needs robust and reliable support. Trump is not reliable. And other potential allies(particularly Europe) are risk averse and approach China with great caution. A conceivable alliance of democratic technology leaders could help slow the advance of China's growing chokehold on key global technology sectors. But I see no substantive developments that suggest such a format is even being considered.

Taiwan is taking these risks precisely when America's deterence is weakest and China's confidence is highest. If Trump is behind this policy change, I suspect that Beijing will draw the logical conclusions. Beijing isn't stupid. Trump on the other hand...

 

[Atterus]

Sooner or later, probably sooner (like 2040 latest, maybe a lot sooner) Taiwan is going to be a province of China again. Not saying that because I want it to be true, but because China doesn't bluff and doesn't back down (they don't have to), and they're building methodically toward a confrontation along that timeline.

TSMC has been the Achilles heel of the West. We can't get those new fabs built fast enough.

China will choke like Russia. Worse. Russia didnt need to cross a straight, and just crossing rivers was nightmarish for them. Indications are China is in worse shape than Russia. Russia at least sailed their decrepit subs around. China's are in drydock falling apart.

Taiwan has been planning for that scenario for decades and has repelled China before when the troops actually cared. I wouldn't count out NATO involvement if Russia is curbed by then along with the TGD crippling China for decades when that becomes target priority 1 for advanced missiles Taiwan has.

Taiwan is not recovering from post Soviet incompetance... and Xi/Putin seem to think their belligerance occurs in a void with no consequences.

A lotta disinformatzya trying to convince Chinese citizens Taiwan wont be defended... sounds a lot like another "3 day war". I encourage the SVR and CCP bots to look at the differences between their recent "3 day wars" versus the ones the US was involved in...

In a way... the Trump delusions plays into the US favor. Im glad China and Russia think he doesnt care about supremacy and will never go kinetic... it shows their intel is bad, their strategy is flawed, and they are willfully walking into the lions mouth convinced there is gold at the other end because their own propaganda says so.

Perfect.

 

[Coriolanus]

One important bit of context that wasn't included in this article:

According to data from Taiwan, the amount of semiconductor-related goods exported from Taiwan to South Africa amounted to approximately 4 million dollars in 2024.

https://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/diplomacy-by-chip-taiwan-curbs-exports-to-south-africa

 

[Coriolanus]

Indications are China is in worse shape than Russia. Russia at least sailed their decrepit subs around. China's are in drydock falling apart.

Uh, got anything to back up that assertion? Because everything I have see indicates that ship construction is accelerating in China. Just recently, China launched the new Type 41 nuclear submarines, along with the first sailless submarine which has been speculated to be a battery powered uncrewed drone sub.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/02/new-unreported-submarine-in-china-leaves-west-guessing/

China has also been deploying new mobile pier ships which will allow for amphibious landing of military vehicles by sea as of this year.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-new...-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/

The BBC posted this earlier this year:

In the last two decades, China has ramped up investment in shipbuilding. And that has paid off: more than 60% of the world's orders this year have gone to Chinese shipyards. Put simply, China is building more ships than any other country because it can do it faster than anyone else.

"The scale is extraordinary… in many ways eye-watering," says Nick Childs, a maritime expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The Chinese shipbuilding capacity is something like 200 times overall that of the United States."

That commanding lead also applies to its navy. The Chinese Communist Party now has the world's largest, operating 234 warships compared to the US Navy's 219.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gmnpg31xlo

The US Naval fleet still has more tonnage on the water right now, because the US has more aircraft carriers. China is catching up, though, and there's a bigger emphasis on large numbers of fast and maneuverable attack ships.

 

[motytrah]

It's not just China - it's America too! There is no monopoly in brain power. Taiwan is pretty amazing, but expecting it to keep consistently ahead of the world's top two economies with their vast resources is expecting too much.

Understand that the technology for the current crop of chips is American. It was developed in our national labs and licensed to ASML. TSMC also has a large number of process patents around making the fab more economical.

The reason the US has been able to ban China from getting it's hands on it is because we still have the R&D prowess. Though, the current administration might be shooting us in the foot right now.

 

[Rival Vector Plot]

Wait until Taiwan starts to strong arm the US. It'll happen.

With a weak leader like Trump, I can see it too.

 

[Rival Vector Plot]

This is the correct take, and China is already making strong gains in that hedge motion. In the long term though, it's a culturing thing as much as an economic one, so once that piece is off the board the US has nothing to leverage. Sadly, if we onshore enough of these fabs, the US will probably also abandon Taiwan anyway.

Under Trump US leadership and direction is weak. They only need to sit by as MAGAs continue to destroy the country. Not a shot will be fired by China.

 

[odikweos]

Uh, got anything to back up that assertion? Because everything I have see indicates that ship construction is accelerating in China. Just recently, China launched the new Type 41 nuclear submarines, along with the first sailless submarine which has been speculated to be a battery powered uncrewed drone sub.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/02/new-unreported-submarine-in-china-leaves-west-guessing/

China has also been deploying new mobile pier ships which will allow for amphibious landing of military vehicles by sea as of this year.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-new...-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/

The BBC posted this earlier this year:


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gmnpg31xlo

The US Naval fleet still has more tonnage on the water right now, because the US has more aircraft carriers. China is catching up, though, and there's a bigger emphasis on large numbers of fast and maneuverable attack ships.

Importantly, aircraft carriers are a power projection mix. China just needs local navy - within support range of the mainland - so they mainly need denial ships and the ability to control waters within simple ballistic missile range of the mainland. They won't need parity with the US to assault Taiwan. They just need to make it credible enough/painful enough for us to back off. And we will. If we had the stones to deal with China, we'd have done it in the 1950s when we had the upper hand by a country mile. We blinked then and we can reliably expect to blink this time too.

 

[Coriolanus]

Importantly, aircraft carriers are a power projection mix. China just needs local navy - within support range of the mainland - so they mainly need denial ships and the ability to control waters within simple ballistic missile range of the mainland. They won't need parity with the US to assault Taiwan. They just need to make it credible enough/painful enough for us to back off. And we will. If we had the stones to deal with China, we'd have done it in the 1950s when we had the upper hand by a country mile. We blinked then and we can reliably expect to blink this time too.

I am wondering if massive aircraft carriers are still needed in the age of autonomous drones?

 

[chronoex]

I thought this was mostly posturing to appeal to their political base. China did a thing in South Africa, and South Africa is harmless enough for Taiwan gov to respond to so the current party doesn't look too weak on China. And if it catches the Trump's attention, even better, whatever good that will do.

 

[SparkyM]

I think SA should tell Taiwan not to play Sun City, especially because The Donald told them to.

 

[Hoptimist]

There's no point having nukes if you're not going to tell people you have nukes.

You miss the point. PRC will know, Taiwan is as hacked as anyone else by PRC. No one else needs to know, that way there is no diplomatic fallout. PRC announcing Taiwan has nukes, wouldn't go over well with their domestic audience. PRC would continue to use economic manipulation to achieve their ends, as they appear to be doing.

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

China will choke like Russia. Worse. Russia didnt need to cross a straight, and just crossing rivers was nightmarish for them. Indications are China is in worse shape than Russia. Russia at least sailed their decrepit subs around. China's are in drydock falling apart.

Taiwan has been planning for that scenario for decades and has repelled China before when the troops actually cared. I wouldn't count out NATO involvement if Russia is curbed by then along with the TGD crippling China for decades when that becomes target priority 1 for advanced missiles Taiwan has.

Taiwan is not recovering from post Soviet incompetance... and Xi/Putin seem to think their belligerance occurs in a void with no consequences.

A lotta disinformatzya trying to convince Chinese citizens Taiwan wont be defended... sounds a lot like another "3 day war". I encourage the SVR and CCP bots to look at the differences between their recent "3 day wars" versus the ones the US was involved in...

In a way... the Trump delusions plays into the US favor. Im glad China and Russia think he doesnt care about supremacy and will never go kinetic... it shows their intel is bad, their strategy is flawed, and they are willfully walking into the lions mouth convinced there is gold at the other end because their own propaganda says so.

Perfect.

As mentioned by another poster, China already has the world's largest navy and is continuing to rapidly grow it further.

Unlike the case with Russia and Ukraine, China's economy is basically on par with, if not exceeding, the U.S. now (especially in terms of internal purchasing power parity), whereas Russia's economy is smaller than that of a few individual U.S. States. China has a full manufacturing infrastructure, whereas neither Russia nor America can make such a claim (with most of their finished goods now being imported from China, as a matter of fact.)

Moreover, China has the capability to easily and completely encircle and blockade Taiwan - something Russia cannot do to Ukraine. How long will Taiwan last, especially under continual bombardment, once it's cut off from all imported oil and gas, and all other imported raw materials, food products, and ammunition and military equipment?

The drone and missile salvos Russia is lobbing daily at Ukraine would be utterly eclipsed by the sort of salvos and bombing raids that China could sustain indefinitely against Taiwan. China could quickly reduce the entire island to a Gaza-style rubble wasteland dying from famine, before even planting a single boot on Taiwanese soil. And let's not forget that there is a sizeable percentage of China sympathizers and appeasers amongst the Taiwanese population: they will quickly form a fifth column if Taiwan's refusal to surrender begins to meet with apocalyptic consequences.

 

[Senti]

being US vassal state never end up good lol, especially under trump.

 

[const_iterator]

A conceivable alliance of democratic technology leaders could help slow the advance of China's growing chokehold on key global technology sectors.

How? To stop the laws of physics from being effective in China?

 

[Dano40]

Ukraine has shown that a decided, but much smaller country, can stop a massive juggernaut.

I wouldn't take as granted that the Chinese Communist Party can unilaterally enslave the free people of Taiwan.

There’s only one problem with that the Chinese aren’t incompetent like the Russians or Taco, or Worm man….

 

[Sei_kū]

BRICS is now larger than the G8 economies

Nitpick: G7 now. And the G7 economies are still larger than BRICS (by GDP).
Also like half of BRICS economic power is just China. Other than maybe India, the rest aren’t that powerful.

 

[Sypher the 297th]

Yes, keep weaponizing leading economic positions, it's not like China already realized the idiocy and is moving fast into producing their own chips that will eventually match western tech and bring a whole lot of countries into China's lap. It's gonna work folks! /s

The Chinese haven't managed to steal the technology to make anything more than low-mid tier chips. Give em a few decades and maybe their Western plants can get them what they need. In the mean time, the West also realized the idiocy of something, namely relying on China as the world's sole manufacturing hub, and are actively diversifying away from a revanchist state.

BTW, I'm noticing a few wumao types in the comments. What are you guys pulling down. . . after taxes?

 

[SiriusEx]

Communist-occupied mainland China complains a lot. Glad the Republic of China has the nerve to put them in their place!

I'm glad Taiwan is standing up to West Taiwan like this. Maybe someday, we can have One Taiwan again.

Not going to speak for the other Taiwanese, but this one here would rather the current government of 23 million doesn't have to take on the burden of governing another billion more. "One China" (whichever 'China' you recognise) itself is buying into CCP rhetoric, a bit of a false dichotomy; a Taiwan as-is, but free from Chinese threats, is good enough for me.

Also thanks to Ars for not using "reunification" or "mainland" in the article.

 

[Dumb Svengali]

What a wild comment section with a huge diversity of opinions (and no predictable pattern for up/down votes) and some rare (for Ars) obvious agendaposting.

Thanks for the great article.

 

[aLliao]

It's actually quite a foreign concept for Taiwanese to act this way, if you ever got crazy familiar with Taiwanese you'd find finishing each others sentences is like a national sport; and it works exactly like a cache. The hits are dopamine maxing, the misses are usually hilarious. It's obviously not a perfect system for communication but I suppose the efficiency and the dopamine hit makes it too hard to quit. How does it apply in this scenario and why I say it's somewhat foreign? If you imagine people who does this, anticipation is a very important component, so to Taiwanese it feels down right insane that you see the stick and decided to act like a moron anyway therefore inviting the stick, it just does not compute.
But I guess learning about other cultures is just one of those life long thing we do to thrive together on this pale blue dot.

 

[Lasbas]

This coming from the same people who have weaponized the sale of rare-earth minerals. Hypocrites.

While China did certainly leverage their near-monopoly in the sector, it would really be more accurate to say that they de-weaponized the sale of rare-earth minerals. China specifically restricted the export of REEs based on their "dual use" potential, very often for missiles, jets, and radar systems that are trained at Beijing.

The RAND Corporation says that, "every F-35 Lightning II fighter jet has around 920 pounds of rare earth elements built into its engines and electronics," and a GAO report noted that each SSN-774 Virginia-class submarine requires 10x more than that, fully 9,200 pounds.

American auto manufacturers and everyone else reliant on high-performance, heat-resistant magnets can still get them. There's now just stringent verification mechanisms in place to ensure they're not diverted to weaponized uses.

 

[Observer]

View: https://youtu.be/sD85MKzH2aE?si=-eNlEGNebsPIyJIm


China starting flat top carrier operations. Granted they are still starting up but they are moving quickly.

 

[Hagen Stein]

Taiwan weaponizing its chip manufacturing is likely to backfire and end up creating new export markets for Chinese chips.

.. which are inferior.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSzlHWIus4s

 

[ColdWetDog]

Importantly, aircraft carriers are a power projection mix. China just needs local navy - within support range of the mainland - so they mainly need denial ships and the ability to control waters within simple ballistic missile range of the mainland. They won't need parity with the US to assault Taiwan. They just need to make it credible enough/painful enough for us to back off. And we will. If we had the stones to deal with China, we'd have done it in the 1950s when we had the upper hand by a country mile. We blinked then and we can reliably expect to blink this time too.

That isn't exactly true. In the event of a real conflict, China needs to be able to defend its sea routes through the Mallocan straight, through Indonesia and the Indian Ocean. China needs both imports and exports to continue without suffering major economic consequences. So they don't need as much force projection as they need sea lane protection. Some of that will be with subs and surface ships but carriers are really useful for stuff like that.

Although they have just shown the ability to launch and retrieve aircraft from their new carrier, the Fujian, they have a long way to go before they are in the force projection / protection game. Something the US is particularly good at.

They won't blink, they will just keep their eyes open until they perceive they have enough of an upper hand.

 

[2006 Acer MB]

We don't even need to obliterate the fabs, ASML has installed self-destructs in them, and Taiwan has them rigged to blow.

Firstly, that sounds slightly problematic from an insurance and health & safety point of view. I know you're likely American and happily accept that any day at work could easily result in you getting shot, but the rest of the world doesn't operate like that.

Even if it were true, TSMC would only be aiming to destroy their own buildings and equipment. In this situation, America's actual aim would to murder as many TSMC personnel as possible to stop their expertise being used by China.

So, actually you would need to obliterate the fabs. Not only that, but you would enjoy doing it, it would satisfy your natural bloodlust and you would simply blame it all on someone else anyway.

Then the Chinese would obliterate you.

 

[thrillgore]

Firstly, that sounds slightly problematic from an insurance and health & safety point of view. I know you're likely American and happily accept that any day at work could easily result in you getting shot, but the rest of the world doesn't operate like that.

Even if it were true, TSMC would only be aiming to destroy their own buildings and equipment. In this situation, America's actual aim would to murder as many TSMC personnel as possible to stop their expertise being used by China.

So, actually you would need to obliterate the fabs. Not only that, but you would enjoy doing it, it would satisfy your natural bloodlust and you would simply blame it all on someone else anyway.

Then the Chinese would obliterate you.

20 day old account astroturfer detected.

The entire reason Taiwan would do this and say it is deterrence. The Taiwan fabs are the only ones capable of < 5nm at the moment, so they are pivotal to the global economy.

 

[odikweos]

That isn't exactly true. In the event of a real conflict, China needs to be able to defend its sea routes through the Mallocan straight, through Indonesia and the Indian Ocean. China needs both imports and exports to continue without suffering major economic consequences. So they don't need as much force projection as they need sea lane protection. Some of that will be with subs and surface ships but carriers are really useful for stuff like that.

Although they have just shown the ability to launch and retrieve aircraft from their new carrier, the Fujian, they have a long way to go before they are in the force projection / protection game. Something the US is particularly good at.

They won't blink, they will just keep their eyes open until they perceive they have enough of an upper hand.

Anyone can make claims like that. "In order to go to war with Ukraine, Russia needed to be able to protect its Black Sea trade routes." Except that didn't stop Russia at all, because it wasn't existential, merely annoying.

Likewise, China just has to deter the US from entering the fray at all, and that's accomplished by being big and scary enough that we demur. And we will, because the ROI isn't and has never been there, or we'd have a formal alliance as we do with Japan etc.

There's a relevant saying: "Rule 1 on the first page of the book of war is 'do not march on Moscow. Rule 2 is 'do not go fighting with your land armies in China.'" (thanks monty)

Only the US thinks it has to have global power projection and total supremacy to do anything. Only the US has been rich enough to entertain such delusions. And only the US has built the navy you think is necessary for a regional conflict, because it actually isn't.

 

[Zaragon]

Ukraine has shown that a decided, but much smaller country, can stop a massive juggernaut.

I wouldn't take as granted that the Chinese Communist Party can unilaterally enslave the free people of Taiwan.

I mean, that's technically true, but the difference is more than an order of magnitude.

Ukraine pre-war: ~42 million
Russia pre-war: ~147 million

China: ~1400 million
Taiwain: ~23 million

China outnumbers Taiwan more than 60:1, compared to Russia outnumbering Ukraine 3:1.

The US has made it clear if China tries to take Taiwan that we'll obliterate TMSC's FABs. It's mutual economic destruction in the near term.

Will we, though? Trump can't ever make up his mind which side he's on. Maybe we will, maybe Trump will just congratulate China on a great victory for the Chinese people.

 

[j0bekt01]

Its great to see countries finally wielding their sticks, especially against a dump like a SA. This is going to really hurt their economy coupled with tariffs and cuts to aid. Trump should also end the AGOA. Africans are nothing but a Russian and Chinese stooge and needs to be treated as such. Its high time that these rogue nations pick a side.

 

[Atterus]

Oh boy... the CCP bots are working hard on this one.

Good. Keep spewing nonsense and delusion. Reality will punch you lot in the teeth as hard as it is Putin.

Tofu dregs... there is a reason the CCP refuses to show their numbers anymore. There is a reason the US is pivoting to the Pacific while NATO is bolstering the eastern flank. Putin and Xi want a fight. They'll get the swirly they both yearn for so badly.

They can claim NATO is fracturing all they want. The reality is less convenient for them.

Like I said: im glad the delusions and propaganda are being bought into. It will make the shock and confusion all the more delicious...

Edit: BTW, folks are forgetting a key part of BnR is the eastern Europe crossings... oops.

 

[odikweos]

I mean, that's technically true, but the difference is more than an order of magnitude.

Ukraine pre-war: ~42 million
Russia pre-war: ~147 million

China: ~1400 million
Taiwain: ~23 million

China outnumbers Taiwan more than 60:1, compared to Russia outnumbering Ukraine 3:1.



Will we, though? Trump can't ever make up his mind which side he's on. Maybe we will, maybe Trump will just congratulate China on a great victory for the Chinese people.

Don't forget defense in depth. Ukraine is a huge country. Taiwan is a modest-sized province. The only thing they have going for them is the water.. and that can be dealt with. The moment they lose a significant beachhead, they're done.

TBH Russian incompetence is the only reason Ukraine is still a country. And they haven't given up -- Russian stubbornness may well end up winning the day.

 

[Cloudgazer]

You miss the point. PRC will know, Taiwan is as hacked as anyone else by PRC. No one else needs to know, that way there is no diplomatic fallout. PRC announcing Taiwan has nukes, wouldn't go over well with their domestic audience. PRC would continue to use economic manipulation to achieve their ends, as they appear to be doing.

I think you miss the point. It doesn't really matter if the PRC knows, if the PRC doesn't feel any need to worry about it.

Taiwan cannot realistically have enough nukes to do more than badly bloody China if China invades. Once China invades the choice for Taiwan then becomes
a) Bloody China with nukes and then suffer horrifying reprisals or
b) Leave the nukes in the silos.

Publicly having nukes on the other hand changes the calculus in the pre-war stage, because now as things escalate Chinese citizens in cities that can reasonably expect to become craters after the invasion are suddenly highly motivated to lobby the government to stop.

Nukes are the weirdest weapon we've ever created in that the entire point of them is to be able to credibly threaten to use them even if, realistically, it's highly unlikely that you would use them.

That's before we get into the whole matter of Salami Tactics


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yg-UqIIvang&pp=ygUTeWVzIG1pbmlzdGVyIHNhbGFtaQ%3D%3D

 

[lp0_on_fire]

I doubt China is concerned, they take the long view, and they're cautious. Taiwan will be a part of China just as soon as China is certain that it can take it, hold it, and weather the inevitable international shitstorm. That day is coming sooner than you think. It may even already be here.

The Chinese military is untested and will run out of ships and planes before Taiwan, Japan and the US run out of torpedoes, mines and missiles. Even a successful invasion would drown hundreds of thousands of PLA troops.

 

[mmmmwmmmm]

It only looks strange...until you realize the US and UK didn't lift a finger to end apartheid, and were actively complicit in its continuation for decades. BRICS is now larger than the G8 economies, so they now have leverage and it's growing every day. Africa is the only place on the planet where there is a growing middle class any more...think about that for a second. ...everywhere else, the middle class is shrinking.

No doubt, except that the distinction between the Russian people and the current Russian government is important. "Giving back" to the ancestors of the USSR is, I think, the opposite of supporting the Putin regime (who are oppressing both Russians, as well as other descendants of the USSR).

Stuff is complex, but South Africa is a democracy where people enjoy significant freedom. Russia is not this, it's odd to have these be bedfellows.

 

[Pluvia Arenae]

We don't even need to obliterate the fabs, ASML has installed self-destructs in them, and Taiwan has them rigged to blow.

The companies installed a "remote kill-switch" in the EUV machines. That doesn't mean explosives.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion

 

[lp0_on_fire]

The moment they lose a significant beachhead, they're done.

The US planned an invasion of Taiwan for I believe February of 1945, this never occurred because just delivering enough men to the Tainan region would have been extraordinarily difficult. And the Japanese defenders of the island couldn't sink the invasion fleet from over the horizon.

 

[Zaragon]

The Chinese military is untested and will run out of ships and planes before Taiwan, Japan and the US run out of torpedoes, mines and missiles. Even a successful invasion would drown hundreds of thousands of PLA troops.

Untested doesn't mean poor. It means untested. They could turn out to be a highly elite fighting force whose only lack is experience performing under fire, that hardens rapidly. They could also turn out to be a bunch of farmers with uniforms and guns and panic and run at the first sign of trouble. We don't know, and we likely won't know until it's too late for Taiwan (because I don't personally see the Chinese using their military in a huge way anywhere else first). The Chinese have also made incredible strides in shipbuilding capacity, to the point where their Navy now outnumbers the US Navy, and they can almost certainly replenish losses much faster than the US can.

To your other point, that only matters if the US actually supports Taiwan during an invasion, which with Mango Mussolini in charge is a big giant question mark. Japan can't stop China on their own even if they want to. Quantity does have a quality all its own, after all.