Next El Niño could be tipping point for a hotter climate

Pacific heat pulse is temporary, but scientists warn that its climate impacts are not.

See full article...

 

[Nalyd]

Super El Niño

I prefer "El Super Niño" AKA Superboy AKA the Christ-child

(full circle etymology, bam!)

 

[msawzall]

Cue a US Republican Congressman holding a snowball during a dumbass speech for their fossil fuel donors.

 

[SalishSeaSam]

We’ll pay the piper… Hey, we are the piper!

 

[ubercurmudgeon]

“Super El Niño may not just cause a one-time extreme event,” he wrote. “It can shift the background climate conditions that people and ecosystems rely on.”

But, for a beautiful moment in time, we did create a lot of value for shareholders.

 

[Brainspasm]

They finally found the can down the road here. It was kicked many times further up the street.

 

[Tomcat From Mars]

Cue a US Republican Congressman holding a snowball during a dumbass speech for their fossil fuel donors.

Look, I've been to the Pacific Ocean. I even put my foot in it once. You know what? The water still feels pretty cold! Checkmate.

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

Now I can't stop thinking about people I know who still insist we'll "science our way out of this" because it's easier for them to imagine replacing the Amazon Rain Forest with a giant air conditioning unit than it is for them to imagine changing fuel energy sources and societal habits.

 

[Chance the Gardiner]

We are the piper... And the frogs.

 

[TekaroBB]

Now I can't stop thinking about people I know who still insist we'll "science our way out of this" because it's easier for them to imagine replacing the Amazon Rain Forest with a giant air conditioning unit than it is for them to imagine changing fuel sources and societal habits.

This is what too much science fiction does to a person. It's fun to watch the crew of the Enterprise toss some technobabble around and solve the problem within 44 minutes, but in the real world there is not always a solution to our problems. Science is a long slow progress hindered by real world engineering limitations and obnoxious reality of physics.

 

[MilesArcher]

Elon's going to solve the problem by filling the next Starship flight with Sulfur so when it explodes in the upper atmosphere, it will block sunlight. /s (mostly!)

 

[Veritas super omens]

This is what too much science fiction does to a person. It's fun to watch the crew of the Enterprise toss some technobabble around and solve the problem within 44 minutes, but in the real world there is not always a solution to our problems. Science is a long slow progress hindered by real world engineering limitations and obnoxious reality of physics.

Not to mention the obnoxious and counterproductive effects of tribalism and politics!


Yeah 1.5 is TOAST!

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

This is what too much science fiction does to a person. It's fun to watch the crew of the Enterprise toss some technobabble around and solve the problem within 44 minutes, but in the real world there is not always a solution to our problems. Science is a long slow progress hindered by real world engineering limitations and obnoxious reality of physics.

Very true. But on the other hand your reply makes me wonder if we should try reversing the polarity.

 

[DarthSlack]

Now I can't stop thinking about people I know who still insist we'll "science our way out of this" because it's easier for them to imagine replacing the Amazon Rain Forest with a giant air conditioning unit than it is for them to imagine changing fuel energy sources and societal habits.

Maybe point them to the article on how Trump just gutted the NSF board. Because we aren't sciencing our way out of anything at this rate.

 

[jezra]

fortunately, we did our part by ensuring that affordable EVs are so prevalent in the US, that the vast majority of new and used car sales are EV.
I jest of course, that would be bad for 'the economy', and let's face it, Wall St profits are far more important than some weather problem our children will have to face (at least according to Wall St sponsored politicians).

 

[Snark218]

Maybe point them to the article on how Trump just gutted the NSF board. Because we aren't sciencing our way out of anything at this rate.

The entire concept is faulty. We know how to mitigate climate change. We chose not to. There’s no deus ex machina waiting in the wings.

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

There’s no deus ex machina waiting in the wings.

Instead there's a diabolus ex machina that's been on stage for too long.

 

[Arsfrk]

The UK Weather video explains the phenomenon really great; in Colombia we are expecting really drought weather and rising energy prices as most of our energy comes from dams.

 

[Fatesrider]

In a world already superheated by greenhouse gases, a strong El Niño during the next 12 to 18 months could permanently push the planet’s average annual temperature past the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold enshrined in scientific documents and political agreements as a turning point for potentially irreversible climate impacts.

Something like 15 years ago or more, I made some remarks about how climate change was going to be a lot faster than the pundits were saying at the time. I recall saying that the Paris Accord target would be exceeded by the 2030's, and recall saying it would be as much as 20-25 years SOONER than the "deadline".

My prediction was based on a synergy of things that I didn't have a lot of evidence to hold up as "proof". But I have a strange brain that makes pretty accurate conclusions based on scant clear evidence. It's not perfect, but it's a lot more accurate than coin tosses. I was often shouted down, but I knew I was right. It's hard to describe knowing without proving, especially when it's not taking anything on "faith".

But my understanding of how I arrived at that conclusion so long ago evolved. The science at the time was missing the necessary evidence to make any kind of accurate prediction. Evidence as in "proof", which science, rightly, but unfortunately, must have for "conclusions". My brain isn't as constrained. It's a trend. And the trend kept being pushed up, and pushed up harder.

THIS kind of thing is why I was banging the "we're fucked" drum long before I was joined by more official sorts:

Climate scientists also recently published a study showing that strong El Niño events can trigger what they called “climate regime shifts,” meaning abrupt, lasting changes in heat, rainfall, and drought patterns.

Back then, climate science itself was still very much an emerging science. It was more localized, and focused, and didn't include all of the major synergies that climate is now known to possess (and I doubt that all of the major synergies are known yet - with this article pointing out one that was mostly billed an effect of a cycle more than a cause for climate change). I knew climate was more complicated than it was being reported to be, because it stands to reason it is. Despite the fact they were happening far more often than ever in human climate history.

The data is supporting my horribly poorly documented "impression" from a decade and a half ago when no one thought we'd be where we are now as fast as we got here.

So, this story doesn't surprise me at all. Those synergies keep popping up. Admittedly, this is a big one. But it's just one more nail in the coffin.

We can't prevent climate change. The evidence easily supports the conclusion we utterly lack the ability to mitigate it. We need to adapt, or we are not going to survive. Yes, that's an opinion - just like before and based on exactly the same "intuition". Only in this case, it's about human nature and not so much on the often undiscussed limitations of modern science.

 

[Eurynom0s]

Cue a US Republican Congressman holding a snowball during a dumbass speech for their fossil fuel donors.

A snowball he'd been keeping in a freezer, there wasn't actually any snow on the ground the day he did that.

 

[danchr]

Instead there's a diabolus ex machina that's been on stage for too long.

As a Dane, I didn’t really need any more reasons to consider the US government antagonistic. But actively pursuing “drill, baby, drill” while the world is burning, on occasion literally? That feels practically evil…

 

[poke 532810]

The UK Weather video explains the phenomenon really great; in Colombia we are expecting really drought weather and rising energy prices as most of our energy comes from dams.

I have family who live in the Amazon basin, a couple kilometers from the Amazon River, and they’re bracing for severe drought. They’ve had unusual weather for the past few years - drought, severe flooding, cold snaps that have dropped the temperatures below freezing in areas where the previous record lows were in the mid teens (Celsius) - and they’re expecting it to get worse.

 

[DarthSlack]

The entire concept is faulty. We know how to mitigate climate change. We chose not to. There’s no deus ex machina waiting in the wings.

Oh yeah, but that doesn't stop the goobers-in-residence from trotting it out as a "valid approach".

 

[Zenrock]

Look, I've been to the Pacific Ocean. I even put my foot in it once. You know what? The water still feels pretty cold! Checkmate.

This last winter KY suffered a snow, then freezing rain with sub-freezing temps. For about two weeks no one in my suburban neighborhood could get out with the 3-6" thick sheets of ice on the roads. The kids were out of school for like two weeks. People were livid. The city doesn't have equipment to deal with messes like that. It was bad.

But even through all that, I knew the absolute worst part of the whole event would be that a large group of dumb-asses would use the event to say "see! there's no global warming!"

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

This last winter KY suffered a snow, then freezing rain with sub-freezing temps. For about two weeks no one in my suburban neighborhood could get out with the 3-6" thick sheets of ice on the roads. The kids were out of school for like two weeks. People were livid. The city doesn't have equipment to deal with messes like that. It was bad.

But even through all that, I knew the absolute worst part of the whole event would be that a large group of dumb-asses would use the event to say "see! there's no global warming!"

It feels so asinine to say it like this, but calling it "global warming" was a major marketing blunder even though the term is accurate. Trying to get people to understand that really means "putting more energy into the system and can result in cold events too" is hard.

 

[siliconaddict]

This last winter KY suffered a snow, then freezing rain with sub-freezing temps. For about two weeks no one in my suburban neighborhood could get out with the 3-6" thick sheets of ice on the roads. The kids were out of school for like two weeks. People were livid. The city doesn't have equipment to deal with messes like that. It was bad.

But even through all that, I knew the absolute worst part of the whole event would be that a large group of dumb-asses would use the event to say "see! there's no global warming!"

That is why the term "warming" has been generally replaced by climate change as idiots don't understand weather vs climate.

 

[DarthSlack]

It feels so asinine to say it like this, but calling it "global warming" was a major marketing blunder even though the term is accurate. Trying to get people to understand that really means "putting more energy into the system and can result in cold events too" is hard.

The naming doesn't matter, terming it "climate change" hasn't fared any better. The people getting rich from burning fossil fuels would be opposed regardless of the name, and Republicans are too thick to understand anything more complex than "libs bad!"

 

[avocado]

As James Hansen, the prominent climate scientist quoted in this article, has explained, it's far past time to begin full-scale research on plausible cooling methods like stratospheric aerosol injection.

Today's older generations – despite having adequate information – failed to stem climate change or set the planet on a course to avoid growing climate disasters. And they tied one arm of young people behind their back by supporting only renewable energies [as in not including nuclear] as an alternative to fossil fuels. Now, as it has become clear that climate is driving hard toward the Point of No Return, there are efforts to tie the other arm of young people behind their back. We refer to efforts to prohibit actions that may be needed to affect Earth's energy balance, temporarily, while the difficult task of reducing greenhouse gases is pursued as rapidly as practical – namely Solar Radiation Modification (SRM). Purposeful global cooling with such climate interventions is falsely described as "geoengineering," while, in fact, it is action to reduce geoengineering. Humanmade climate forcings are already geoengineering the planet at an unprecedented, dangerous, rate.

We, the authors – who range in experience from young people just beginning our careers to older scientists who have spent half a century in research aimed at better understanding of Earth's climate – are concerned about the danger of again "being too late" in informing the public about actions that may be needed to preserve the marvelous world we inherited from our parents. We do not recommend implementing climate interventions, but we suggest that young people not be prohibited from having knowledge of the potential and limitations of purposeful global cooling in their toolbox. We do not subscribe to the opinion that such knowledge will necessarily decrease public desire to slow and reverse growth of atmospheric greenhouse gases; on the contrary, knowledge of such research may increase public pressure to reduce greenhouse gas amounts.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494#d1e558

We've been geoengineering for over a century. Solar Radiation Modification won't fix climate change, but it could buy us time to implement and scale up other measures.

 

[no_great_name]

I say this often in climate threads but - buckle the fuck up people. We’re about to kick this thing into overdrive.

 

[numerobis]

The 1.5 C is just a psychological threshold. The changes are basically continuous given there are so many different little systems, each with a different threshold— and indeed many with thresholds not directly dependent on the absolute temperature but more about the rate of change.

Which is to say, we’re fucked, but we’d only be a tiny bit less fucked if the number was 1.49 C instead.

 

[numerobis]

How are they wrong?

Which is more realistic given our current world/climate/zeitgeist?

Developing a novel technological solution or convincing people to change their ways (when their short term incentives don't align with the changes)?

It's no longer cynical to give up on collaboration - our only hope to solve/curb climate change is some technological/scientific solution.

There is no technical/scientific solution to a policy question.

 

[Melon of Troy]

That is why the term "warming" has been generally replaced by climate change as idiots don't understand weather vs climate.

Idiots will continue to fail to understand that which they do not wish to understand.

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

How are they wrong?

Which is more realistic given our current world/climate/zeitgeist? And haven't all the studies already shown that the horse has already bolted the barn? You aren't solving much even if everyone collaborated and massively improved our habits now.

It's no longer cynical to give up on collaboration - our only hope to solve/curb climate change is some technological/scientific solution.

Because we've had any number of technological/scientific solutions available to us for a long time. What we don't have is the willpower to adopt them because it would be inconvenient.

But congratulations on illustrating exactly the lack of comprehension I was talking about.

 

[vought1221]

There really never was any chance to stop this. Not with “buy a fancy car” being the most visible way most consumers react to the crisis.

Thank you for your individual acts during the past 30 years, but it was never going to be enough. Without top-down mandates, this wasn’t getting fixed, and it hasn’t been.

The path out of this is not anything today’s population will put up with, not when you have people desperately making excuses to heighten their ability to not give a solitary shit about others. (Tesla and FSD are a perfect example).

 

[avocado]

There really never was any chance to stop this. Not with “buy a fancy car” being the most visible way most consumers react to the crisis.

Thank you for your individual acts during the past 30 years, but it was never going to be enough. Without top-down mandates, this wasn’t getting fixed, and it hasn’t been.

The path out of this is not anything today’s population will put up with, not when you have people desperately making excuses to heighten their ability to not give a solitary shit about others. (Tesla and FSD are a perfect example).

There was a chance to lessen the severity of climate change, and there still is.

 

[janhec]

As a Dane, I didn’t really need any more reasons to consider the US government antagonistic. But actively pursuing “drill, baby, drill” while the world is burning, on occasion literally? That feels practically evil…

As a Dutchman, I could not agree more. Send our ships and put the neo-natives there under strict control?

 

[MJMullinII]

We're going to have to accept the fact that less "free water" is going to fall from the sky than it has in the past. I'm specifically thinking of the Colorado River situation, but it's true in a lot of other places too. Speaking just of the Colorado River water system, serious study is going to have to be put on supplanting the natural snow/rain fall because it's very obvious by studying history that this on average the norm, climate wise. Even without climate change putting further pressure on things, the last thousand years or so of wetter times was the exception and NOT the rule.

That last sentence speaking to the miscalculations in the 1930s of the water provisions, back before the long term history of the area was as well understood as now.

If playing 'what if', I favor a massive desalination effort on the west coast, pumping water into the upstream areas so the rest of the water system can continue to be used (not to mention refilling the recreation areas, which perhaps could be taxed somehow to help pay for the endeavor, etc.)