- Nuclear Fission (the atoms would have decayed anyway)
This isn't quite right - The enrichment and arrangement of the fuel rods in a reactor massively accelerate the natural decay rate, since each emitted neutron gets used to usefully split another atom, rather than dissipating into nature like it did when the Uranium was in the ground.
An analogy is to think of a nuke: those atoms weren't going to decay anyway when they did, they were encouraged to decay by the structure and mechanisms of the bomb.
That speeds up the timeframe but eventually it would have decayed away regardless. Still heat is a non issue even for fossil fuels. We have global warming because the ghg are making our greenhouse effect more efficient not because we are adding heat to the environment.
I'm not in any way saying that it's going to contribute to the overheating of the planet, but a nuclear reactor does increase the
rate of fissions for a given hunk of U-235 over the natural background. Yes, that hunk of U-235 was going to have 6-7 half-lives in the ground and thus be mostly consumed before the sun consumes the earth, but burning even a couple percent of it instead in a couple-year stint in a reactor is a huge difference in rate, and thus human-relevant heat. Moving forward the fissions what would've happened in the far-distant future into the present makes a small, miniscule, barely calculable difference to our heat levels now. Worrying about it is like the people worrying about these data center boiling the oceans, but it is "new" heat.
And again: human waste heat isn't currently a problem on the scale of CO2-driven climate change. But saying "a nuclear reactor doesn't change how much heat the U-235 is going to emit" is being right on a technicality, because you're operating on a 4-5 billion-year timespan. The U-235 certainly wasn't going to emit the heat the reactor produced in just a few years.
Though my solar panel bit was partially in error: as long as your panel offsets electricity that would've come from a coal plant, it appears even a worst-case albedo impact can be paid back in 3 years:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/so ... do-effect/. A new solar installation though, making new electricity and covering high-albedo land, could be problematic. Covering the Sahara in panels to power new industry might be a wash.