Market, trading, investing & business during 47th administration

[w00key]

Well seeing anything Trump seems too political for the BR, better make a thread here to discuss the recent market turmoil.


More analysis is getting written about the last sillyness. Bloomberg: Stagflation Is Now America’s Best-Case Scenario

Don’t expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the US economy from the epic tariffs the Trump administration has imposed on imports from most of the world. The only question now is how bad the damage will be.

The president’s attack on free trade is truly extraordinary in scope, scale and lack of nuance. The weighted-average tariff will likely climb to 25% or more of the value of imports this year, from less than 3%. This increase amounts to more than 10 times what Trump did in his first term.

Elsewhere (sorry don't remember where) there's now chatter that the priced in rate cuts won't happen - with rising inflation, as central bank, your tool to fight that is raising rates, not cutting it. Morgan Stanley has a short research update on it but it's from 3rd of April, someone else had an updated view this weekend / today. https://www.morganstanley.com/insig...fs-fed-interest-rate-uncertainty-2025-outlook


Today also had an interesting glitch, market went from down 4% to up to down again in minutes. Rumors about a pause of tariff for 90 days and quickly denied by Trump, whoever started that was very effective. I wonder if it was for lulz or someone front ran this and made a lot of money illegally.

An anonymous Twitter account sent markets reeling today - https://on.ft.com/42AaUmz at FT (Alphaville, free to read after registration)

Anyway, the market has been zigzagging all over the place since this morning. That’s presumably because some traders think the US President can be swayed by market reactions to fake news.

Or, as the @Quantian account puts it:

So we bounced 8% on a fake headline, sold off when people realized it was fake, and then bounced again when it occurred to people that if we bounced that much on a fake headline imagine how much we’d bounce on a hypothetical real one.

 

[w00key]

This just popped up in the app.

Donald Trump’s tariffs will fix a broken system - https://on.ft.com/4lcnCzc via FT (gift link, good for 3 reads)

These tools include currency manipulation, value added tax distortions, dumping, export subsidies, state-owned enterprises, IP theft, discriminatory product standards, quotas, bans, opaque licensing regimes, burdensome customs procedures, data localisation mandates and, increasingly, the use of “lawfare” in places like the EU to target America’s largest tech firms.

Wait what. Oh right a Project 2025 contributor and the guy thinking VAT is a tariff.

Brave of him to publish on FT, commenters burnt him down immediately with 600+ comments in 2 hours. Oof, rarely are they that active.

~~~

Markets could get a lot worse — and quickly. The concern now among bankers and hedge fund managers is that something, somewhere could break. https://www.ft.com/content/c2b4129c-d58c-4c9e-9aee-6f2e10c25785?shareType=nongift

When risky assets fall in price, that’s one thing. But when the safe assets take a hit, you really are in trouble. That was the turning point in the Covid crisis five years ago — the abrupt slide in Treasuries then was on a much bigger scale than what we have seen in 2025 (so far). But when it happened, it was clear that intervention was required.

The concern now among bankers and hedge fund managers is that something, somewhere could break. Hedgies are eyeing each other up to figure out who is in the stickiest spot.

Long tail risk, nbd so far but everyone is on the lookout for signs of Lehman Brothers / LTCM 2.

 

[dio82]

There are rumours that hedge funds are getting margin calls and that they are margin calling eachother, too. Oh what fun times.

 

[SunRaven01]

/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///

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The 47th ... what? The 47th President? His administration? You left out a word. Fix your title for clarity, please.

 

[w00key]

/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///

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The 47th ... what? The 47th President? His administration? You left out a word. Fix your title for clarity, please.

Both, I guess? Trump is just the guy at the top, during his first term he had actual advisors that are geniuses compared to the ones in charge now. I can't blame all of the insane ideas on just the president, Peter Navarro clearly thinks tariffs are a great idea in his guest post in FT today.

Changed the title to ... during the 47th administration.

 

[Arbelac]

There are rumours that hedge funds are getting margin calls and that they are margin calling eachother, too. Oh what fun times.

It couldn't happen to nicer people.

 

[w00key]

Just after Katie Martin published her piece to be on the lookout for sell off of safe assets, this came in my mailbox this morning (CET) from the Points of Return newsletter by John Authers, [Bloomberg] ($) Manic Monday looks like the end of the beginning (but free if you sign up and get it delivered per email daily, https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/points-of-return)

Hmm... That's a lot of swapping T-bills for cash. No speculation on what the cash is for but we'll find out when something does break or leak.

The title of the post is "Manic Monday looks like the end of the beginning", two charts:

And where to go from here, how do we end the tariff threat?

The tariffs announced last week were a big and grievous mistake [...] Investors are taking it as a given that they cannot possibly be imposed for any significant period. But this president has made it a lifelong principle never to apologize or admit error. How, then, can the administration correct its course?

In the last few months, senators have been cowed by threats that the president’s backers will sponsor primary challenges against them. [...] But there is movement. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, both prominent senators on the right of the party, have spoken out against tariffs. A bipartisan bill that would curb presidential tariff power doesn’t have the necessary support from the Republican Senate leader, but shows public flickers of intraparty opposition. [...]

the key for a market recovery could be a move by a competitor that makes clear that tariffs are indeed negotiable, giving the administration a reason or pretext to back down — or at least delay. [...] This selloff is driven almost exclusively by the policy change, and the implications the new tariffs have for company profits and economic growth. This means that only a change in the tariffs, though probably only a modest one, will move the market. Nicholas Colas of Datatrek Research says:

Until there is an explicit catalyst to show markets the worst-case scenario (last Wednesday’s announcement) is off the table, stocks will continue to be volatile (at best) or decline (at worst).

But China isn't going to play ball. [FT] ($) China vows ‘fight to the end’ after Trump threatens extra 50% tariff

Beijing backed up the threat of retaliation by fixing the exchange rate of its currency, the renminbi, at Rmb7.20 per dollar — the lowest since September 2023 — in a sign it could use depreciation to offset Trump’s tariffs.

As US - China trade is the most important of them all, this will take a while to resolve and a test who blinks first.


For market watch, "Unhedged: When to buy the dip" analyzed PE, CAPE and US discount rate, and stocks are not cheap yet. He finishes with:

It’s quite clear. Stocks are no bargain. But Trump’s tariffs may not be done with us yet, and if they are not, now is the time to think about what the bargain level might be. The best thing written on this point is Jeremy Grantham’s absolute banger of a GMO investor letter, “Reinvesting When Terrified”, which he penned right at the 2009 market low. Grantham wrote:

As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable people will start to predict the end of the world, armed with plenty of terrifying and accurate data that will serve to reinforce the wisdom of your caution [in holding cash] . . . There is only one cure for terminal paralysis: you absolutely must have a battle plan for reinvestment and stick to it . . . have a schedule for further [purchases] contingent on future market declines . . . Remember that you will never catch the low . . . seeking for optimality is a snare and delusion; it will merely serve to increase your paralysis.

Catching the bottom is impossible, but buying the dip, multiple time, may be your best shot at getting better than usual returns.

 

[sporkman]

Bottom definitely is not here yet. I expect stocks to halve in value.

They're still higher than they were under Biden. They should be lower.

Trump knew this would tank the stock market. I think this is also his revenge for being prosecuted. I always thought it was a bad idea to prosecute him in the way they did. To Trump, by and large he's primarily hurting the professional managerial class who oppose him the most.

On the plus side...degrowth is necessary too. Trade flows are extremely imbalanced and are an extraordinary squared privilege that the USA enjoys, having the poor of the world suffer to make our stuff.

I don't think degrowth is their intention, but from an environmental perspective and even from a spiritual perspective, less stuff is better for the planet and the soul.

 

[sporkman]

But since this is revenge from Trump's perspective, and since his own family is doing fine especially with Trumpcoin being a vehicle for corruption, he personally is not feeling any pain. So he can ride this all the way down to Dow 1000. Remember when Dow 10000 was a big deal? And Dow 30000 sounded like an insane pipe dream? When 100 points move in the stock market was a huge deal? I wonder if Trump planned the Trumpcoin to insulate him and his family from any gyrations of the market so he could do what he wanted ideologically without suffering any personal consequences. Trumpcoin is his fuck-you money.

Elon did a Path of Exile stream and one of the gamers trolled him.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/gamers-troll-elon-musk-during-path-of-exile-2-live-stream

Elon is still IMO the best hope to get him to back off on the tariffs.

 

[Da Xiang]

Chinese RMB is at 7.309 per U.S. Dollar right now.....

But China isn't going to play ball. [FT] ($) China vows ‘fight to the end’ after Trump threatens extra 50% tariff

 

[w00key]

Chinese RMB is at 7.309 per U.S. Dollar right now.....

Weakest level since 2007. CCP is on a war path, cheaper currency boosts exports, maybe exactly what their economy needs right now.

With Biden they had to watch out for being labelled a currency manipulator, but as the current administration has already shown all their cards there is no real way to escalate further.

Plus tariffs should go on things with an alternative source. Slapping it on widely, on things you can't get elsewhere just means an extra consumption tax and inflation.

 

[drogin]

It couldn't happen to nicer people.

OK, but these guys aren't playing with their own money...a lot of hedge fund and private equity money comes from things like retirement and pension plans.

So them making stupid bets with other peoples money is going to hurt "us" way more than it hurts "them".

Also...these people own things like hospitals and shit now...the impacts will literally be life threatening in some cases.

 

[drogin]

Weakest level since 2007. CCP is on a war path, cheaper currency boosts exports, maybe exactly what their economy needs right now.

With Biden they had to watch out for being labelled a currency manipulator, but as the current administration has already shown all their cards there is no real way to escalate further.

Plus tariffs should go on things with an alternative source. Slapping it on widely, on things you can't get elsewhere just means an extra consumption tax and inflation.

Right, plus a lot of the normal inflation hedges (silver, gold, etc) are going to be more volatile too since this is going to impact manufacturing...

I don't mind on stuff like silver, because I can just buy the dip...and it's very likely to swing back.

 

[w00key]

OK, but these guys aren't playing with their own money...a lot of hedge fund and private equity money comes from things like retirement and pension plans.

So them making stupid bets with other peoples money is going to hurt "us" way more than it hurts "them".

Also...these people own things like hospitals and shit now...the impacts will literally be life threatening in some cases.

Well a good thing is that fund managers (for pension, endowment etc) are increasingly critical about hedgefunds and private equity.

But they still have an outsized impact on the real world, last public fuck up here in NL / Europe was a club buying up a bunch of doctors offices, a rather low margin business and manage to bankrupt themselves, leading to loss of care. Rules are massively tightened afterwards.

They never do any good with their leveraged looting of businesses... If it is up to me PE should be banned or highly regulated ASAP.

 

[timezon3]

I also expect stagflation, and I also expect interest rates not to drop, as the Fed's main concern is to prevent inflation. Tariff-induced inflation prevents them from reducing interest rates to try to stimulate growth. I also think we've got further down to go (in the market); I think the only reason we haven't dropped that far yet is that the markets are still anticipating a good chance that the tariffs get walked back. And they might be, but nobody knows anything for sure. And that's the main reason I haven't sold all my stocks. Who knows what Trump is going to do next.

 

[w00key]

Who knows what Trump is going to do next.

Meh, that's the big issue in numerous pieces published since obliteration day. One today was titled "Trump has no idea what he unleashed".

One could argue that USA just torn up basically all agreements ever signed, so how long will the new one be good for? It lasts until USA demands more tribute.

Another is that business and investments require stability and USA is anything but stable, from internal issues caused by DOGE and silly cabinet members (wtf were they thinking with the minister of health), to pissing off allies in all ways, from defense/NATO/Ukraine to trade war with everyone including at the same time.


The only saving grace is that S&P has a ton of geographically spread out companies, the safest one is Coca Cola, all production is local to each country, they just send €$¥ home, so those will be fine. Sort of, piss off your neighbors enough and they will start a boycot - it's already happening in Denmark with people preferring local brands and even whitelabel house brands over Coca Cola®.

 

[sporkman]

I also expect stagflation, and I also expect interest rates not to drop, as the Fed's main concern is to prevent inflation. Tariff-induced inflation prevents them from reducing interest rates to try to stimulate growth. I also think we've got further down to go (in the market); I think the only reason we haven't dropped that far yet is that the markets are still anticipating a good chance that the tariffs get walked back. And they might be, but nobody knows anything for sure. And that's the main reason I haven't sold all my stocks. Who knows what Trump is going to do next.

I think today it's a dead cat bounce. I expect Trump to ride these tariffs all the way down.

 

[drogin]

Yeah, I think stay the course is really the viable path at the moment. The little Fake News freak out that happened just illustrates that a lot of money out there is being bet off emotions. I don't know what the term is, but my guess is these people are very cyclic and have the money to risk day-by-day. So sell off one day, buy back in a little lower a day or two later.

I'm still not sure where all this tariff stuff is going to land. My guess is that it will be met somewhere in the middle.

You even see it today at market open. Even talks about talks has things bouncing back. This is kind of the time for the volatility since the economy is in otherwise decent shape. I think if tariffs got set, and they were done more appropriately, the market would just settle. The market, the media, pretty much everyone would be willing to hand Trump a meaningless victory where he could say he set tariffs, but they were set low and didn't cause further disruption.

This "shock and awe" approach is what has people freaked out and acting stupid.

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

Plus tariffs should go on things with an alternative source. Slapping it on widely, on things you can't get elsewhere just means an extra consumption tax and inflation.

And layoffs, shuttered businesses, less competition, fewer choices in the marketplace, and no resilience to other shocks. A steady, steep decline over weeks, months, and years.

China will win this trade war because of two things:

• Their economic trend is growth and future focused.
• The US economic trend is zero sum and nostalgia focused.

 

[dio82]

And layoffs, shuttered businesses, less competition, fewer choices in the marketplace, and no resilience to other shocks. A steady, steep decline over weeks, months, and years.

China will win this trade war because of two things:

• Their economic trend is growth and future focused.
• The US economic trend is zero sum and nostalgia focused.

Also, China is not fighting against the entire world all at once while setting the own country on fire. They are building mutual trade spheres with everyone else who matters, and they are taking over Africa and south America.

With the US going full isolationist retard, China can only win.

 

[Rb87]

Not to disregard or downplay our own efforts to handicap ourselves, but China is dealing with problems of its own, so it’s entirely possible that everyone can end up losing. Hard to see where China will get a whole lot of growth in the mid to long term when their population is trending down (and old) so quickly:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

You can already see a drop off in the number of 20 y/o, so over the next decade or so when the currently 30-40 y/o cohort starts slowing down, China’s going to have to deal with how to manage a shrinking economy, unless they figure out a way to reconcile themselves to/motivate massive immigration from outside.

Growth requires increased productivity and/or increased population. Despite the most recent efforts, the US population is at least fairly stable:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

You've convolved many things there and drawn a number of spurious conclusions, punctuated ironically by the reference made to the US... which has experienced lots of economic growth without large increases in population over the same period. Not to mention the numerous places that have comparatively high population growth and basically dead economies.

There are kinds of economic organization and activity for which those things can have an impact, but they're also things that can be mitigated numerous ways.

Economic growth is about what you make or do, how you go about doing it, who you can sell it to, and for how much.

 

[Rb87]

Seems like we agree then. Like I said, economic growth requires increased productivity and/or population growth. I suppose it’s possible to get economic growth in the face of significant population declines, if you’re innovative or lucky enough. Don’t know if there are any good examples of this. And they certainly don’t get easier when you’re in a world where people are forced to make inefficient resource allocations.

 

[w00key]

Oh, there's an article on why treasuries crashed yesterday. Indeed hedge funds furiously raising cash. It got buried under the avalanche of news.

US government debt sells off as hedge funds cut down on risk - https://on.ft.com/3YmkGGi via FT

Market participants said the declines in the $29tn Treasury market on Monday reflected several factors, including hedge funds cutting down on leverage — or borrowing used to magnify trades — and a broader dash for cash as investors sheltered from swings in the wider market.

Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities said the move reflected “an ‘everything, everywhere all at once’-type trade”. He added: “Multisector funds are trying to deleverage, which leads to a ‘sell everything’ trade.”

I wouldn't bet against them, they probably know better than us noobs that this isn't time for buying the dip.


In other news, 104% tariff on Chinese import is scheduled to start 12:01 am. If I had cargo on the way or landed I would keep it on the docks and not submit it to clear customs.

This will lead to a huge backlog stuck in the ports and shortages on random things, depending on how much stock people kept. And once there is a deal, a huge shortage of capacity to move it through customs and to warehouses and distribution centers. gg, time.

 

[Papageno]

This [stupidest of Presidents] through his stupid tariff policies + DOGE has managed to make the S&P 500 be down not only on the day (-1.57%), the last 5 days (-5.11%), the last month (-12.43%) and YTD (-15.09%) but even be down YoY (-4.22%).

SO MUCH WINNING.

 

[Shavano]

Meh, that's the big issue in numerous pieces published since obliteration day. One today was titled "Trump has no idea what he unleashed".

One could argue that USA just torn up basically all agreements ever signed, so how long will the new one be good for? It lasts until USA demands more tribute.

Another is that business and investments require stability and USA is anything but stable, from internal issues caused by DOGE and silly cabinet members (wtf were they thinking with the minister of health), to pissing off allies in all ways, from defense/NATO/Ukraine to trade war with everyone including at the same time.


The only saving grace is that S&P has a ton of geographically spread out companies, the safest one is Coca Cola, all production is local to each country, they just send €$¥ home, so those will be fine. Sort of, piss off your neighbors enough and they will start a boycot - it's already happening in Denmark with people preferring local brands and even whitelabel house brands over Coca Cola®.

KO's stock price reflects that. They're one of few stocks that has held up YTD. Smart investors are going to be looking to stocks that are relatively less sensitive to international trade.

 

[Shavano]

This [stupidest of Presidents] through his stupid tariff policies + DOGE has managed to make the S&P 500 be down not only on the day (-1.57%), the last 5 days (-5.11%), the last month (-12.43%) and YTD (-15.09%) but even be down YoY (-4.22%).

SO MUCH WINNING.

Tesla is down 49% from the high it hit earlier this year.

I so much want to see that stock destroyed and bought up for couch change by its employees.

 

[sporkman]

What's pathetic about Musk is that he's since gone back to thinking about the inane culture war junk.

All of the GOP commentators just default back to hating Democrats rather than really grappling with the issue at hand. It is kind of repetitive too, because the internet has rotted their minds.

Dan Ives said today that Elon's actions over the next three months will determine what happens to Tesla. Sales are down massively, especially in Europe. This guy let the woke mind virus really infect his mind so as to completely lose all perspective.

He can save the economy by somehow getting rid of these tariffs. Or he can be the fool who burned his empire to the ground on behalf of a bunch of internet trolls.

 

[Shavano]

What's pathetic about Musk is that he's since gone back to thinking about the inane culture war junk.

All of the GOP commentators just default back to hating Democrats rather than really grappling with the issue at hand. It is kind of repetitive too, because the internet has rotted their minds.

Dan Ives said today that Elon's actions over the next three months will determine what happens to Tesla. Sales are down massively, especially in Europe. This guy let the woke mind virus really infect his mind so as to completely lose all perspective.

He can save the economy by somehow getting rid of these tariffs.

Can he though? I think Musk is a tool, nothing more. Trump is getting what he wants out of him and will throw him away when he's done like a used Kleenex. Like he does with everyone.

Or he can be the fool who burned his empire to the ground on behalf of a bunch of internet trolls.

Already well on his way on that. His only hope of hanging on to something of value is probably the cozy deals he's making with the Pentagon and SpaceX.

 

[Coriolanus]

Trump knew this would tank the stock market. I think this is also his revenge for being prosecuted. I always thought it was a bad idea to prosecute him in the way they did. To Trump, by and large he's primarily hurting the professional managerial class who oppose him the most.

I disagree. I think he legitimately thought this would massively boost the market because he actually believes it's popular and effective. He didn't start talking about pain until the markets already tanked a fair bit. But at that point, he had too much invested to back down.

 

[Coriolanus]

The past few days have been really stressful. I am looking at my 401k and the stuff I scrimped and saved away and it's all dropping constantly.

 

[sporkman]

Can he though? I think Musk is a tool, nothing more. Trump is getting what he wants out of him and will throw him away when he's done like a used Kleenex. Like he does with everyone.

Already well on his way on that. His only hope of hanging on to something of value is probably the cozy deals he's making with the Pentagon and SpaceX.

I think that Musk could. He does have a substantial amount of power. Trump definitely uses and abuses people, but those people tend to not have the resources that Musk has.

Musk did a rather severe 180 in response to the lockdowns and his son going trans. He could do a 180 in response to these tariffs which will materially harm everything that he's built including spaceX.

Musk was more a useful idiot for Trump with DOGE, doing the dirty work and taking the blame. It is sad that people spent their energy hating on Musk instead of Trump, who has accomplished far less in the private sector and deserves much more scorn.

 

[Shavano]

I think that Musk could. He does have a substantial amount of power. Trump definitely uses and abuses people, but those people tend to not have the resources that Musk has.

Musk did a rather severe 180 in response to the lockdowns and his son going trans. He could do a 180 in response to these tariffs which will materially harm everything that he's built including spaceX.

Musk was more a useful idiot for Trump with DOGE, doing the dirty work and taking the blame. It is sad that people spent their energy hating on Musk instead of Trump, who has accomplished far less in the private sector and deserves much more scorn.

I have plenty of hate for both of them, thanks.

 

[Fingolfin]

Trump says US taking in $2 billion a day from tariffs

"The Treasury Department's daily statement of deposits into and withdrawals from the its general account, the federal government's main operating account, shows "Customs and Certain Excise Taxes" deposits have on average totaled around $200 million a day so far this month."

His math is special. So much for a Warton's business degree.

The Treasury Department's daily statement of deposits into and withdrawals from the its general account, the federal government's main operating account, shows "Customs and Certain Excise Taxes" deposits have on average totaled around $200 million a day so far this month. For the entire month of February, the latest full month available, the Treasury netted about $7.25 billion in customs duties. The monthly budget statement for March will be released on Thursday, which will show the latest monthly figures.

I meet with my Edward Jones rep Friday. I wonder if he'll tell me I am winning Bigley?

edited for: 2,000,000,000 X 30 is 60,000,000,000. That is some tremendous mathing there. Were has it all gone?

edited for: had to ad a a.

 

[yd]

I also expect stagflation, and I also expect interest rates not to drop, as the Fed's main concern is to prevent inflation. Tariff-induced inflation prevents them from reducing interest rates to try to stimulate growth. I also think we've got further down to go (in the market); I think the only reason we haven't dropped that far yet is that the markets are still anticipating a good chance that the tariffs get walked back. And they might be, but nobody knows anything for sure. And that's the main reason I haven't sold all my stocks. Who knows what Trump is going to do next.

Indeed, stagflation is totally in the cards. The US has also more than likely permanently lowered the multiple people should be willing to pay for US stocks - you are not getting the rule of law and transparency any longer, you are getting chimpanzees flinging poo and children coming up with policy. The Dow/S&P has a looooong way to go down from here, just a question of the pace.

Throw in hillbilly jd vance calling the people the US needs (China) to NOT sell treasuries 'peasants' and then seeing treasuries tank well over 30bps and its on like donkey kong even in the bond markets.

https://pracap.com/watch-bonds/

I found that quite an interesting read - you basically have bessent and the admin wanting to control the yield curve - OR ELSE Ima gonna melt down your equities. Good luck; I foresee both selling of of equities AND selling off on fixed income. Basically, the US is getting what if voted for; being poorer. But hey, you want to make Nikes, not just wear them right (Dave Chapelle had a great take to the opposite effect).

This just popped up on Reuters as well...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-...er-tariff-shock-euronext-ceo-says-2025-04-08/

If the US wants to look like an emerging market, well, the p/e multiple for its stock market shouldn't be anywhere near 18'ish but more like 10ish - so whats that gonna be, another 50% decline....and that assumes earnings stay the same while recession comes on in full soon and people are boycotting US stuff globally. Good luck!

 

[Technarch]

The past few days have been really stressful. I am looking at my 401k and the stuff I scrimped and saved away and it's all dropping constantly.

Same. I saw all this coming and was all set to move accounts into international funds--but I was under a restraining order that prevented me from doing that until my divorce was settled. Which it finally was...three hours after the tariffs went into effect.

 

[yd]

Same. I saw all this coming and was all set to move accounts into international funds--but I was under a restraining order that prevented me from doing that until my divorce was settled. Which it finally was...three hours after the tariffs went into effect.

Ooof, that bites. I have been on the receiving end of a few restrictions over time but it only really ever hit one thing at a time, not everything.

 

[Coriolanus]

Same. I saw all this coming and was all set to move accounts into international funds--but I was under a restraining order that prevented me from doing that until my divorce was settled. Which it finally was...three hours after the tariffs went into effect.

I had a lot of rsu from work that I never sold because I didn't have a good understanding of how the taxes would work.

 

[Smeghead]

I'm trying not to pay too much attention to it all right now, to be honest. Trying, but failing.

I'm not a stocks guy. I don't understand even remotely enough about the markets to know much beyond than I should be investing for retirement. I have my engineering day job, and I put aside enough that should result in us being comfortable when we retire, plus a little extra. It all goes into the retirement system that work uses.

I would have ordinarily just left things alone like we did in 2008. However, retirement is in lessthanI'dliketoadmit years' time, which is way closer than it was 17 years ago. Since the inauguration, I was nervous that if (when) something big happened, it would take a long time for things to recover, leaving me on edge for an extended period of time.

I don't know how everyone else's retirement accounts work, but the company that manages ours allows each person to pick and choose between various products to their taste. By default, each person is put into a fund that is timed to your retirement date (each spaced 5 years apart), and as that year looms closer, the balance of holdings in that fund becomes more conservative. By and large, the safe bet is usually to leave it there, but you're free to cut your own throat if you so choose.

The middle of last month, I had a talk with one of their advisors, and they'd blatantly been given a script to follow: stay the course. Short on actual advice, I directly asked what I could do to reduce risk given I had little confidence in the powers that be, and was told I could consider switching everything to one of the funds that manages those retiring around now, rather than the group I was defaulted to. I did that, but was still feeling uneasy about it.

When they announced the date that tariff levels would be revealed, I was still feeling very on edge, so I went back in to the system and ordered that everything be shifted to a money market fund. That took effect after closing on the 31st (in this system, all instructions are only executed in a batch after closing time, regardless of the time of day they were set up). It came after the local peaks for the fund in February and March, but was close enough that I wasn't too bothered.

I understand enough that under normal circumstances, this would be suicide in the long term. Inflation would eat it alive.

Right now? I'm feeling way more relaxed. Since the switch, my pot is up a couple of tenths of a percent. Whee.

In comparison, if I'd left things alone then as of today I would have been down about 9%. Not YTD, just since the beginning of the month. If I understand after-hours trading at all, it's also looking like the markets will down from the get-go tomorrow, unlike today.

(As an aside, what the hell was that all about anyway? Where the ever-loving fuck did all the warm n' fuzzies come from that resulted in the likes of the Dow opening 1200 points higher than where it closed yesterday?)

Now I've bought myself time to think rationally, I'm trying to decide on my criteria for a move back to my default fund. I know I won't be timing it to hit the absolute bottom, but I figure I should have some thresholds in mind for moving some, then all back.

In the banking crash, it took about a year and a half from the local peak in autumn 2007 before the Dow to hit bottom in Feb 2009, ending up at just over 50% what it had been. I guess I have to decide for myself as to whether this feels like it's going to be that bad and whether it'll be quicker or slower, then set some triggers for my decision.

Weeks? Months? Years? At the moment, I don't know, but given the general competence being shown by those in charge, I'm leaning towards far longer than shorter.

One metric I'm likely to use is in the spreadsheet I'm maintaining daily that accumulates the per-unit loss of my default fund since the end of March, and then translates that into what the multiplier would be if I moved back on that day, assuming that later on down the line (likely years) things recovered to the levels seen on that day. It won't be perfect and it's perhaps simplistic in its assumption that there will actually be a recovery, but it's the best I can come up with on my own, and it's something I can then use to tell myself what the target I'd want to see in that column before doing anything.

I hate all of this. It feels like I'm gambling with my future.

 

[Macam]

@Smeghead The basic gist of those retirement funds is that they use your age to determine the mix of more volatile/higher yield assets (stocks) to lower yield/lower risk assets (bonds, etc). The idea being that when you’re younger, you can tolerate more risk since you have more time before you need the funds for retirement, whereas when you’re closer to retirement, you need stable, less risky income, so they shift the mix away from stocks. It’s a pretty standard way of doing things.

This is all generally based on the last 40 or so years of the post WWII, free trade order and approximate historical data, etc and is designed to make things simple, low cost, and relatively straightforward.

Today’s bump was largely copium, of people hoping they’d be some last minute deal where Trump walks things back. The fundamentals haven’t changed. That being: total, unpredictable chaos.

You’re not gambling with your future as much as the administration is gambling with everybody’s. It’s absolute chaos, it’s wildly unfair for a lot of people, and it’s, frankly, cruel. But that’s par for the course for the administration.