Looks like the crypto collapse has begun
- Thread starter BFG10K
- Start date
For people interested in the inherent value of currency, just consider all the interesting types of currency that have been used over the years. Currency doesn't have to have an inherent value to be used for to exchange for objects of actual value. Consider though, that all types of currency fluctuate with respect to other currencies. Fluctuations up and down. This alone makes it a dubious "buy and hold" investment. This type of investment vehicle has an inherently high volatility, high risk profile. If you can't hedge away these risks, your so called investment is getting awful close to gambling. If people want to gamble that's great. But don't talk about gambling in the same terms as investing.
Honestly? I don't think the argument of whether something has value or not even matters. People are buying crypto because they want a quick buck. People are minig crypto because they want to get even more rich. There are definitely some people who believe in the technical <foo> behind each of the coins they are investing time, money, and resources into, but ultimately they are faaaaaaaaaaar outshadowed by the people who just want to get rich or launder their ill gotten gains. How much a coin is worth ends up becoming the same as how much a stock is worth: depends on how many people bought into it.
It really has never been investing unless you were 'investing' with the aim to beat the market to some new coin release you know about somehow. That makes it much more like MLM or a Ponzi scheme than any kind of traditional commodity or stock market investment. You're betting that you can get in at the top of the pyramid and hope you can market it enough to make it grow taller and wider under you enough for you to make a big enough profit so you can then dump a bit without looking like an obvious criminal. 
Of course, the middle and bottom of the pyramid see it as investing just like the people who 'invest' in an MLM because their mother-in-law told them about an amazing work from home opportunity. They put in a bunch of money, end up holding a bunch of 'opportunity' in the form of product and ??? and then profit somehow.
The marketing part works just the same, you'll notice the similarity if you have ever had a friend who wanted to talk to you about their crypto hobby. The ??? part is mostly holding onto the product while trying to figure out how to do something to make it worth what it was promised to be in the first place.
If you get enough other people to jump on the wagon with you, your ??? section works out, mostly, if you're smart enough to know when to get off. The part that really bakes my noodle is seeing people who are 2000-5000% up on their initial investment and still saying 'hodl'.
Oh, and yeah, can't forget the criminal segment who want to take dollars/whatever from some nefarious activity and purge their bloody tracks by filtering them through a bitcoin laundry. The transaction fees are probably pretty acceptable compared to a 20-40% take from a traditional money changer in that segment of the market.
Of course, the middle and bottom of the pyramid see it as investing just like the people who 'invest' in an MLM because their mother-in-law told them about an amazing work from home opportunity. They put in a bunch of money, end up holding a bunch of 'opportunity' in the form of product and ??? and then profit somehow.
The marketing part works just the same, you'll notice the similarity if you have ever had a friend who wanted to talk to you about their crypto hobby.
The ??? part is mostly holding onto the product while trying to figure out how to do something to make it worth what it was promised to be in the first place. If you get enough other people to jump on the wagon with you, your ??? section works out, mostly, if you're smart enough to know when to get off. The part that really bakes my noodle is seeing people who are 2000-5000% up on their initial investment and still saying 'hodl'.
Oh, and yeah, can't forget the criminal segment who want to take dollars/whatever from some nefarious activity and purge their bloody tracks by filtering them through a bitcoin laundry. The transaction fees are probably pretty acceptable compared to a 20-40% take from a traditional money changer in that segment of the market.
The price of nVidia cards in the market roughly tracks with Etherium price.
The bubble seems to be over for now, hopefully for good for GPUs, Ethereum already has a PoS branch up and running and the main network is scheduled to merge with it EOY 2021, not a lot of time to build up another boom and bust cycle.
The newer LHR cards seem to be more available too, €900 (incl. 21% VAT) for a 3070 Ti with 24h shipping.
The newer LHR cards seem to be more available too, €900 (incl. 21% VAT) for a 3070 Ti with 24h shipping.
$3.6 billion Crypto stolen by two brothers: https://www.techspot.com/news/90181-big ... tolen.html
It's ironic how Crypto purports to be an anonymous utopia of unregulated currency to replace "failed" government money . But as soon as one mining parasite steals from another, miners expect government cops paid by Fiat to deal with it.
It's ironic how Crypto purports to be an anonymous utopia of unregulated currency to replace "failed" government money . But as soon as one mining parasite steals from another, miners expect government cops paid by Fiat to deal with it.
That is kind of funny how that works.
"Keep your hands off my money you filthy government stooges!"
[crypto buddy steals all the coins and flees to the islands]
"What are you waiting for you filthy government stooges?! Go get my money back!"
"Keep your hands off my money you filthy government stooges!"
[crypto buddy steals all the coins and flees to the islands]
"What are you waiting for you filthy government stooges?! Go get my money back!"
I wish folk would stop trying to pretend these are currencies. They aren't. Never have been. They're commodities.
Just because I can trade them easily doesn't mean they're a currency. Someone got the bright idea to take BitTorrent's distributed hash tables and and make every node a cryptographic hash of every previous block (well akshully...). This doesn't make a currency. It makes an elegant solution to the double spending problem.
I remain unconvinced that Satoshi Nakamoto isn't Bram Cohen.
Meanwhile, my Dogecoin holdings continue their what the fuck is this worth today spree.
Just because I can trade them easily doesn't mean they're a currency. Someone got the bright idea to take BitTorrent's distributed hash tables and and make every node a cryptographic hash of every previous block (well akshully...). This doesn't make a currency. It makes an elegant solution to the double spending problem.
I remain unconvinced that Satoshi Nakamoto isn't Bram Cohen.
Meanwhile, my Dogecoin holdings continue their what the fuck is this worth today spree.
My feeling is this is due to the Chinese government cracking down on mining, not LHR Nvidia GPUs or any sort of natural correction. China didn't do this out of altruism, they invented their own cryptocoin "digital yuan" or DCEP and are wresting control. It of course is not decentralized or anonymous, as that would obviate the point.
Moving to proof of stake will of course stop ethereum mining cold but other cryptocoins will come up for that.
Moving to proof of stake will of course stop ethereum mining cold but other cryptocoins will come up for that.
As far as I know, there’s nothing crypto about the digital yuan. It’s just digital government fiat money that lets them track and monitor all of your purchases.
There’s no block chain involved, as far as I’ve seen. But it’s existence is probably why they are cracking down on mining.
There’s no block chain involved, as far as I’ve seen. But it’s existence is probably why they are cracking down on mining.
Chinese miners are mass-selling their graphics cards: https://www.techspot.com/news/90267-min ... -amid.html
They're selling them "in bulk", which means to me they're selling them to distributors, who will then mark the price up to sell them to individuals. It doesn't change the math unless people stop buying every Ampere card that goes up for sale.
The assertion that these cards were run "at full throttle" is bad. Miners do have to pay for electricity (both GPU power and cooling). There's no reason for them to run at full throttle instead of maximum efficiency. Miners run at lower GPU clocks, higher memory clocks, and a reduced power limit in order to extract the most efficiency from the cards. A stock GPU, untuned, mines at a far lower hashrate, and far higher power consumption, then one that's been tuned to crypto workloads.
The assertion that these cards were run "at full throttle" is bad. Miners do have to pay for electricity (both GPU power and cooling). There's no reason for them to run at full throttle instead of maximum efficiency. Miners run at lower GPU clocks, higher memory clocks, and a reduced power limit in order to extract the most efficiency from the cards. A stock GPU, untuned, mines at a far lower hashrate, and far higher power consumption, then one that's been tuned to crypto workloads.
Given how toasty the VRAM on a RTX 3080 or 3090 gets at stock clocks, though, would you be comfortable with a card that had been sitting with a memory overclock in an unknown cooling situation? I was thinking about that the other day, and this time around I am not sure if I'd take that chance if I had the opportunity. I am curious what your thoughts are on this, though, as this is more of an untested "gut feeling" based on the reports I've read since the 3080 launch.
When the RAM temp goes too high, the ECC kicks in something fierce and slows down the transfers due to tons of errors, so it still can't be pushed and not cooled properly.
The best mining cards, in terms of efficiency, are those with GDDR6. Those are the same cards explicitly mentioned in the article - 3060, 3060 Ti, and 3070.
I know none of you are looking to buy a GT 1030 but I see them as the canary-in-the-coalmine indicator of CPU pricing madness. Not long ago you couldn't get one for less than $150 - this is madness! Now Newegg has several for under $105 and one just under $92. Maybe we'll see GTX 1650's under $200 by the time school starts. If memory serves me it took about 3 or 4 months for GPU prices to get back to normal from this point in the last crypto bubble.
The only way things will return to normal is a massive flood of used GPUs along with a competitive Intel aggressively under-cutting NV/AMD. The duopoly has gotten used to these rip-off prices and won't give them up without a fight.
As long as they're both selling their entire inventory at record prices, why would they change anything? That's why they're both dragging their heels with releasing low end parts.
As long as they're both selling their entire inventory at record prices, why would they change anything? That's why they're both dragging their heels with releasing low end parts.
We're teetering on the edge of a sell-off. Miners are holding for now, but the smaller miners may bail out any day now, flooding the market with Ampere cards. That's all it would take to push eBay prices down enough that scalping cards no longer makes sense. Once scalpers are no longer bot'ing it up, that will take pressure off Best Buy, Amazon, Newegg, Zotac, and others.
Intel might help with getting AIB MSRPs back down to something closer to nVidia/AMD MSRPs, but cards sitting on shelves before then could also result in "rebates" of some kind. That depends on where the price increases are coming from - distributors, AIBs, nVidia/AMD, or "other".
nVidia and AMD may be selling their inventory, but AMD's partners are not selling their cards. The only AMD cards that sell out instantly are AMD's reference models at AMD's MSRP.
AMD fell out of the Newegg Shuffle. Newegg themselves have plenty of stock of 6700 XT and 6900 XT cards, and the occasional 6800 XT. Micro Center has cards sitting on shelves.
AMD's just not competitive. Slow driver updates, bad DX11, no NVENC, no temporal support in FSR, no control over AIB pricing (despite the boards being cheap to produce). The only positive is that the 6700 XT has enough RAM to run at 4K, but below that it's slower than the 3070.
A bit like saying Nvidia isn't competitive because it doesn't have QuickSync. You can do better than that.
What, did you see NVENC and then just stop reading?
When a game I play regularly (2-7 days a week) is broken for over eight months, but a driver from April works on older hardware, that tells me AMD still can't do DX11 properly and never intends to.
All AMD had to do was deliver a competitive experience (they didn't) at an equivalent or lower price (their AIBs aren't). Why would I use or recommend a broken card that's more expensive than its competition, even when its competition is harder to get?
The only AMD cards I'm seeing in stock are the stupid high expensive ones. like 3900's pushing to near 3,000 dollars. The cheapest are a few 6700's for a thousand. At that price they might as well not be in stock. Hopefully the bubble will burst and then we can get cards at near msrp again.
This is what is in stock at Newegg, sold by Newegg:
https://www.newegg.com/p/pl?N=100007709 ... 31&Order=1
There are plenty of cards now below $1k, though they are overpriced compared to their original MSRPs.
The only nVidia part "in stock" with ray tracing is a RTX 2060 bundled a TUF 550 PSU for $569. That's better than nothing, though it's around $100 over the final MSRP of the 2060.
After that, though, you see four 6700 XT cards at $909. What you might not be grasping is that prior to about two weeks ago, that wasn't a thing. The last time there was a 6700 XT in the Newegg Shuffle was June 12. The 6900 XT, June 9.
AMD is doing the same thing nVidia is doing - prioritizing the higher margin chips at each tier. For the 6700 XT, there are no other desktop parts, so that's all you get. For Navi21, though, the volume parts were supposed to be the 6800 and 6800 XT. They're not because apparently Navi21 is so defect-free that most are becoming 6900 XT parts.
The difference between AMD and nVidia is that no one wants AMD's parts at/near the prices nVidia's are commanding. Prices crept up due to distributors/AIBs being greedy, and now cards sit on shelves, unsold.
Meanwhile, there are zero Ampere GPUs on shelves, and that won't change until something "gives".
I can anecdotally say that the Microcenter near me has had AMD cards in stock pretty continuously and no Nvidia. At the same time, the prices on the AMD cards are way out of whack with their value to me, with 6700XT hovering around $1K, 6800XT around $1300 and 6900XT between 2-3K in general, although apparently I can go in the store and pick up an Asrock 6900 XT for $1650.
Scalping these kinds of goods is a very capital intensive & risky venture especially since their value is not only based on supply but also on inherent value. It is a depreciating good, scalpers can't keep up this game by gathering new inventory let alone new & better releases.
When this goes bad, it goes bad hard, especially for those who bought in late.
When this goes bad, it goes bad hard, especially for those who bought in late.
909 + shipping + tax is what I said and a thousand. Maybe if you live in a sales tax free zone or have a really low sales tax it will be below that. But, that is not here or most places.
Which game was broken for 8 months in the latest driver? And you could just roll-back to an older driver to get the game to work? Annoying but could be a specific hardware/game setting issue kind of thing?
I like that AMD is open sourcing its Linux drivers and I thought was doing a better job on its software these days.
I think it was Destiny 2. And yes, you could roll back to earlier drivers but of course you lost out on any improvements other than D2 being busted. And Bungie does seem to acknowledge that [some|all] of the blame should fall on them here about 3/4th the way down the page..
It was.
Not so fast.
- The rollback was to 20.4.2, a driver from May, 2020
- If your GPU wasn't supported by 20.4.2, no rollback for you
- All Radeon 6000 series cards came out well after 20.4.2
Eh, I call shenanigans. There's no way AMD couldn't deliver them a few cards to people's homes for testing. Live with a 6700 XT running like ass for a week, and they'd fix it.
The problem affected my 1800X/Vega 56 system and the 5600X that I popped a 6700 XT in to test. The Vega 56, a rollback to 20.4.2 worked. 6700 XT? No option to roll back.
Crypto farm busted with 3800 PS4s / 500 GPUs illegally connected to the grid: https://videocardz.com/newz/ukrainian-l ... 4-consoles
This is where our tech goods are going, folks.
This is where our tech goods are going, folks.
Any hope for a Chia collapse?
I need to expand my NAS as I'm upto 72% utilization. I think I have to move in the next 4 to add a pair of 18TB drives.
I need to expand my NAS as I'm upto 72% utilization. I think I have to move in the next 4 to add a pair of 18TB drives.
Chia tanked a few weeks or a month or two after 'launch', basically it was a pump and dump that made money off of marketing and has been circling the toilet for over 2 months now. Drive prices went up and are staying up because the supply pipeline is still a bit screwed because of covid problems and chip shortages and prices are staying high because it makes more money for people that way. :/
Navi 22 has every sign of being priced to reflect the current demand situation. 6700XT MSRP is way too high compared to other MSRPs, and there is no 6700 vanilla. Since GPU manufacturers tend to dislike cutting MSRP, I suspect that the plan is to make a 6700 vanilla at a much more competitive price once demand drops down a bit.
I don’t think that there are too many Navi 21s that can become 6900XT, but I do think that most can be 6800XT. The 6800 is completely missing. The 6800 is segmentation done the Nvidia way (make a card that fits a spot in the hierarchy nicely in between two complete cards) rather than how AMD usually does it (cut about 12% to make the best card you can out of the yields you have), and it is obvious that AMD would rather not do that.