Hertz is selling 20,000 used EVs due to high repair costs

The rental car company will replace them with gasoline-powered vehicles.

See full article...

 

[android_alpaca]

That might be the case if you lived in one of the (very few) areas where coal is the sole power source, but in most areas an EV will much more quickly pay off the CO2 manufacturing debt. One year / 13,000 miles is a common finding.

Even this calculation assumes 23% for coal in the US grid, but that is dropping and is now at or below 20%.
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/

Coal dropped to 17% of electricity production in the US over 2023.

Even Germany, which had to temporarily move towards coal when it lost access to Russia natural gas... is back down to 26% over the entire year of 2023.

Obviously China and India still use a lot of coal, but it still means things are noticeably improving year by year.

 

[android_alpaca]

I've had ICE cars that made 300,000 miles on their original engines. The battery in my Volt hybrid started to fail at only 110,000.

Your Volt Hybrid had a pretty small battery capacity (18.4kW, 14kWh usable) a roughly 3 mi/kwh at 110,000 km that was roughly 2600 cycles with a lot of deep discharges (which further reduces battery longevity). A 65kwh (50kwh usable) battery doing 2600 cycles at 3mi/kwh would be 2600*50*3 = 390,000 miles. And that's not considering more recent battery use a optimized NMC battery chemistry formulation with improved longevity... or LFP chemistry which is supposedly 2-4x that of NMC chemistry.

Here's a range retention rate of 1 standard deviation (68%) all Model S/X Tesla has ever sold over 200,000 miles.

 

[android_alpaca]

Priuses seem to have a robust aftermarket in refurbished packs; that's unfortunately not the case for other makes.

Are these Prius US sales numbers correct? If so... the 2005-2023 cumulative Priuses sold (2.4M) isn't that much more than the cumulative Tesla sold in the US from 2018-2023 (2M, most of which were Model 3/Y). Given that Teslas are more likely to be totaled... there should be a fair number of refurbished packs in the future - unless all those totaled vehicles are being shipped overseas (which I still don't quite understand the economics of).https://meincmagazine.com/cars/2023/1...teslas-in-ukraine/?comments=1&comments-page=1

 

[android_alpaca]

Fine, that's a Tesla. Would be interesting if similar data could be provided for the Volt and Bolt. Though for the Bolt it would be corrupted somewhat by the recall-related mass battery replacement in the older ones - basically a reset to near 100% of the later-model battery capacity, which is a bit more (edit: 64kwh) than 100% of the original (60kwh) battery capacity;

The Volt maybe... but as you mentioned, the data for Bolt is messed up by the battery recall and the Nissan Leaf is infamously has no active cooling, so there aren't that many vehicles models to look at.

among other things, the number of them on the road supports a healthy refurb business, sreplacements can be had for a reasonable price, and (with a long delivery time) new batteries can still be ordered (at a much higher price than the refurbs) for even the first couple of Prius generations that are now far out of warranty. So far, the only EV that appears to be following that support trajectory is the Leaf. With the others, if (when) a battery dies or is damaged, unless the warranty still applies, the car is scrapped.

Can someone confirm/correct the Prius sales numbers I posted above? If that is correct... by next year... there will be more Tesla Model 3/Y than regular hybrid Toyota Priuses on the road in the US. The main issues it that most of those Tesla are "still using" their batter packs and hence limiting the number of available refurbished pack (along with not enough battery refurbishment business/services to be widely available).

 

[android_alpaca]

It's also a lot harder to swap a Tesla pack -- they're integrated into the vehicle structure as a stressed member.

Only the Model Y being built in the Austin factory (as well as the Cybetruck) have a structural battery pack, so there are a lot of Model 3 and Model Y on the road in the US that could be swapped (Tesla itself has started to use refurbished packs in repairs/replacements).

Go forward though, you have a point that it will be more work to swap a structural battery... but not impossible from what I've seen (you'll need to move over the seats and center console). It will be interesting to see if a structural battery is more durable and less prone to damage (e.g. water damage) and make it a good design decision for Tesla (I admit I'm not particular optimistic about the repairable of the front casting of the Cybertruck... but who knows).

 

[android_alpaca]

Aren't those the worldwide Tesla numbers? Edit: you are right, it's the US numbers. But it's for all Teslas, not just one model.

As I mentioned... the majority of Tesla sold are Model 3 and Y which for years used the same battery pack until the Austin factory started making structural battery Model Y (not every Model Y gets a structural battery). If you looked at the separate Model 3 and Model Y numbers. It still adds up to over 1.7M vehicles.

To make it an apples-to-apples comparison, you should compare it to all Toyota hybrids, not just the Prius. Add the Lexus CT200h (which is the same car as the Prius, just with a different body and the luxury trim),

You could do that yourself you know. Lexus CT sold less than 100k from 2011 until it was discontinued in 2018.

the hybrid versions of the Corolla, Camry, RAV4, and the various other Toyota and Lexus hybrids. And also add the Mirai (it uses the same battery pack as the Prius).

Aside from the Lexus CT 200h. While Toyota appears to use the same electric motor in many, and sometimes the same battery cells. I'm not sure you can swap the batteries between different Toyota hybrid models. I mean they are different capacities and/or chemistries according to this table.

I mean this is a battery pack for a Toyota Mirai 2016-2020

This is a battery pack for a 2016-2021 Toyota Prius (it looks physically different in shape and dimensions and I don't think they are swappable)

In contrast this is a 2021-2023 Model Y battery

This is a 2017 Model 3 battery

Most of the totalled Teslas are declared a loss because of the battery. Finding a totalled Tesla with an intact battery seems like an unusual outlier.

I'm skeptical as i've read of lots of stories of Tesla getting totaled for relatively minor cosmetic damage... like this one where a Tesla with just a crumped rear quarter panel was totaled. I'm pretty sure the battery was intact after this collision. Looking on Ebay shows over 11,000 of Tesla Model 3 batteries on sale (and even more Model Y batteries) implies that there are a lot of relatively intact battery packs for sale.

Also, I see on reddit that insurance companies actually do pay out to be battery replacements without totaling the vehicle. Like this one from 2022 from a 4-year old Model 3

I hit a large rock which punctured my 2018 LR Model3 battery pack. Insurance has agreed to replace the pack with a new one (and other minor repair work.)

 

[android_alpaca]

For the NYC illegal refurbs - do you have a citation for that? Because I'm not finding it.

Kkeane with a source? Don't hold your breath.

He's talking about a NYC Committee on Fire and Emergency Management passing some ordinances hearing titled "E-Bikes and Lithium-ion Battery Fire Safety" and believes that the even though ever committee members mentions e-bikes and food delivery people, and the ordinance 752 specifically mention "powered mobility devices" (which are later defined in an appendix as e-bike, e-scooters, and electric wheelchairs) when forbidding the repair of batteries - he believes nevertheless... someone who "interpret" the law to ban refurb on 4-wheel electric automobiles.

https://legistar.council.nyc.gov/Le...-3FC2-4E68-92F4-07654DBCC658&Options=&Search=
Here are some quotes from the the committee meeting

"On November 14, 2022, the Committee on Fire and Emergency Management, chaired by Council Member Joann Ariola will conduct an oversight hearing on “E-Bikes and Lithium-ion Battery Fire Safety.” The Committee will also hear: Introduction Number 656 (“Int. No. 656”), in relation to requiring the fire department to develop an informational campaign to educate the public on fire risks posed by powered mobility devices; Introduction Number 663 (“Int. No. 663”), in relation to the sale of storage batteries for powered mobility devices; Introduction Number 722 (“Int. No. 722”), in relation to requiring the fire department to report on safety measures to mitigate fire risk associated with powered mobility devices; Introduction Number 749 (“Int. No. 749”) in relation to providing food delivery workers with information on safety measures that mitigate the fire risks posed by powered mobility devices; and Introduction Number 752 (“Int. No. 752”), in relation to prohibiting the sale and assembly of second-use lithium-ion batteries. Those expected to testify include representatives of the New York City Fire Department (“FDNY”), organizations representing delivery workers, restaurants, real estate and third-party delivery services, and other interested members of the public."

Here is a quote from a hearing and the author of the bill specifically mentioned "deliveristas" (i.e. food delivery people using e-bikes)

"One of my bills 656 basically asks the Fire Department to do what they are doing, which is to give out information about the concerns, the fire risks posed by these devices, and then the other one which is the bill that has a little bit more teeth, 752-- and again, we’re just trying to figure out how we can be successful in supporting the deliveristas at the same time being safe."

I'm skeptical of his theory that this loosely word law could be weaponized in the way that he thinks will be... it reminds me back when X-Files TV show floated the idea that the emergency powers of FEMA (which back in the pre-Katrina 90s was a relatively unknown government agency) could be used to take over the country by a shadowy conspiracy organization.

 

[android_alpaca]

Notably, the section in question is not restricted to those mobility devices.

That ordinance specific only updates/amends a particular section of the fire code. Here is the wording

"To amend the New York city fire code, in relation to prohibiting the sale of lithium-ion batteries assembled or reconditioned using cells removed from used batteries Be it enacted by the Council as follows: Section 1. Section FC 309 of the New York city fire code is amended by adding a new section 309.3.5"

The FC309 is explicitly restricted to "Powered Industrial Trucks, Equipment and Mobility Devices" so it might also include forklifts and drayage vehicles... which it would be a stretch to say this fire code was ever intended for personal transportation automobiles.

"Section FC 309: Powered Industrial Trucks, Equipment and Mobility Devices
http://nor would it make any sense to restrict it like that./
309.1 General.
http://nor would it make any sense to restrict it like that./
Powered industrial trucks, powered industrial equipment and powered mobility devices shall be designed, operated and maintained in accordance with this section."

Nor would it make any sense to restrict it like that.

It would make sense to restrict it like that because as the quoted statement by the council members, they passed the ordinance with a specifical goal in mind. To reduce the number of fires being caused by e-bikes.

I would recommend consulting with a good lawyer. Your interpretation seems like wishful thinking.

I understand that you see your interpretation as an objective and clear-mind reading of the text... like Good Will Hunting or something.



I will observe that based on the council members (the legislative branch) statements, they clearly wrote with ordinance with the same intention as my interpretation. Also it appears that the executive branch (i.e. the firealso has that inpretation as AFAICT in the 10 months since that ordinance was passed in March 20, 2023 there are plenty of automotive shops repairing/installing refurbished battery packs in hybrids and full battery electric vehicles.

For instane Aloy Hybrid Battery in Queens (a borough of NYC).

Oct 5, 2023

I recently had my hybrid battery replaced at Aloy Hybrid in Queens, NY, and I couldn't be more pleased with the experience. Not only did they offer a cost-effective remanufactured battery option, but the battery's quality and performance exceeded my expectations. The team was a knowledgeable professional who took the time to answer all my questions. Their commitment to sustainability through remanufacturing is commendable. I highly recommend Aloy Hybrid to anyone in need of hybrid battery services. Truly a gem in Queens!

PriusKings in Brooklyn (again another borough of NYC)

Jan 4, 2024
We thought it was time to sell our beloved Nissan Altima after the dealership wanted to charge us $5600 for a new battery. After searching online we found Prius kings and called them to see what kind of service they could provide. They offered a replacement battery for less than $1500 and send a technician to perform a diagnostic. The technician Max determined it was a hybrid battery problem and replaced it with a reconditioned battery. We are very thankful to Max and the staff at Priuskings as the car is functioning like it was when we purchased it new. We were very happy with the service provided and will definitely recommend to others!

That's two out of the three branch of the government that appears to disagree with your opinion about what that ordinance covers. I've yet to see any anti-EV people try to bring up a lawsuit using this ordinance (I've seen weaker legal challenges) to me makes me think your opinion is the in the minority.

 

[android_alpaca]

You should have gone to https://aloyhybrid.com/service-areas/

They do not actually serve New York City. It appears that they closed down their Queens location; yelp just didn't update the address.

The review from Oct 2023 I quoted explicitly mentioned getting serviced in Queens, NY. Also... they are still have ads listing their Queens location as of Dec 2023 and mentioning "reconditioned batteries." I also just contacted them and confirmed they are still operating out their Queen location with a refurbished hybrid batteries.

You are mistaken. First of all, in a law, the section titles are generally not part of the law, but just descriptive to help you navigate.

The committee meeting report says that all of FC309 applies only to "battery-powered industrial trucks, equipment and mobility devices"

"Further, section FC 309, which was previously limited to ventilation requirements for battery-charging areas, was expanded to incorporate fire safety provisions for charging and storage of battery-powered industrial trucks, equipment and mobility devices.[1]"

And also, as an interesting aside, note that the other sections all talk about "storage batteries". Only 309.3.5 explicitly states Li-Ion batteries. All that makes it very clear that the lawmakers intended for it to apply to all lithium-ion batteries, regardless of use.

As I mentioned before, the council member statements when the ordinance passed suggest the lawmakers were focused on e-bikes. I mean here are the hearing minutes before their passed those measures.

"Finally, we are voting on a package of Fire
Safety Legislation related to lithium-ion batteries
used in powered mobility devices like e-bikes,
scooters, and other equipment. Last year, New York
City experienced over 200 fires caused by lithium-ion
batteries. These were preventable tragedies that
resulted in six fatalities and more than 150
injuries. This is a dramatic increase from 2020,
when there were 44 fires that resulted in 23 injuries
and no deaths. The toll that these fires are
increasingly having on families and communities
across the City is devastating and requires the
urgent attention of the city, state, and federal
governments.

Today, the Council is taking initial steps to
improve New Yorkers’ abilities to keep themselves and
their loved ones safe. We must reduce the avoidable
fire tragedies caused by the wide proliferation of
uncertified lithium-ion batteries."

Many of the delivery workers, who’s safety and
well-being must be our priority, rely on lithium-ion
batteries and the devices powered by them for their
livelihoods. We have a responsibility to support them
and their safety while keeping all New Yorkers safe.

These bills are an initial step to increase
public education, and reduce the growing commercial
circulation of uncertified batteries that pose the
greatest danger. Our valued Deliveristas are not the
target of these restrictions, rather, it is
commercial sellers who profit from distributing those
devices that lack safety certification.

There is continued work to do with all
stakeholders, particularly Deliveristas, to switch
out dangerous batteries from circulation through
supportive programs. And we will continue to work on
this issue with them -- finding ways to support their
livelihoods and safety."
"

If you don't feel like the lawmakers were specifically focused on e-bikes, I guess we can continue to agree to disagree on this as I still remain skeptical with your opinion on this and I doubt many other people share your opinion that the sale refurbished HEV/PHEV/BEV are explicitly prohibited in NYC.

Also.... just to be clear... when you said, "refurbished pack" they you mean any used battery pack... or battery pack what were reassembled from used cells pull out of another battery pack, reconditioned, and put into a new "franken"-pack. Because council speaker explicitly points out that this ordinance only covers the latter. So any "intact" battery pack pull from another vehicle and put into another vehicle still can be sold in NYC.

 

[android_alpaca]

Pretty much by definition, a "refurb" EV or HEV battery is a "franken" pack. Multiple packs are taken from sources that scrap vehicles, opened up, and cells are tested. Those that are performing to spec are kept and assembled into functioning packs to be resold. Those are well-known and frequently-used replacements for dead or degraded batteries in hybrids and some EVs. They also, by their nature, appear to fall under the NYC prohibition unless there's something more specific than discussion minutes to rely on limiting the ordinances to ebikes and the like.

EDIT: perhaps some kind of licensing or certification for refurbishers would help, providing reasonable assurance that they're remanufacturing to essentially new-vehicle safety standards.

The council meeting minutes do mentioned the "certified used batteries" are ok...

"Introduction 572-a (sic) (*752-A), also sponsored
by Council Member Brewer, would prohibit the assembly
of and reconditioning of lithium-ion batteries with
cells removed from used batteries and their
commercial sale.

It is worth noting that the bill
does not prohibit the sale of certified used
batteries, only the dangerous practice of assembling
or reconditioning batteries with cells from used
batteries and selling them."

That why I was trying to figure out the difference between "refurbished" and "reassembled" battery packs, else I'm confused what is a certified used battery pack that isn't made from reassembled/reconditioned battery cells?

 

[android_alpaca]

In all honesty, it really doesn't matter what "many other people" think. It matters what the law says, and when the fire marshall starts issuing citations.

The FDNY Fire Commissioner has given several speeches and updates on the progress of enforcement and outreach for protecting NYC resident from lithium-ion fires... and yet she repeated only mentioned e-bike stores and e-bike repair shops (listing how many e-bike business fire inspectors visited)

This is from Jun 2023 notice how the the Fire Commissioner explicitly talks about finding every single e-bike repair location, but makes no mention of BEV repair locations.

"we also formed an e-safety task force
comprised of members of fire prevention
and Fire Marshals to handle complaints
and concerns about Lithium-ion batteries
specificallyworking off of a list of more than 200
known e-bike and e-bike repair shops we
have also Enlisted the help of our field
units to conduct inspections
we've also encouraged our field units to
their use their own situational
awareness as they know their local
neighborhoods because we know how
challenging it is to find every single
e-bike and e-bike repair location in the city"

Again in Sept 2023, FDNY Fire Commissioner and Head Fire Marshall give an update ... and the entire focus is on e-bikes batteries (zero mentioned of BEV batteries). Why during these public speeches about lithium-ion fire batteries, are they only talking about e-bike repair shops and only warning public about buying certified lithium ion batteries for their "devices" and "bikes"?