Google will invest as much as $40 billion in Anthropic

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VoterFrog

Smack-Fu Master, in training
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Copilot moving to per token cost vs basic (anthropic doing so as well for enterprise) is the start of it.
The players are all cross investing because the blitz scaling will end up collapsing to one or two winners. You need to cross bet or potentially be totally left out of a transformative tech evolution (to what degree is tbd, but its far more "introduction of PC" than "intro of crypto"). Individually they are all acting logically, but yeah it's very bubble inflating and volatile as hell.

As others have said, its acquisition now then assume you can decrease per token cost a ton down the road on new Nvidia or custom hardware to get 10x lower token cost. But the winners will need 100 or 1000x better tokenomics, just wait until this stuff gets properly enshitified, because it will have to for customers. And costs are going to go way up for employers. Simple capitalism logic - tech is going to price this for your company where bean counters say "this is just a bit more cost effective than hiring" ...of course not taking into account long term employee growth. That is quite a bit more expensive than where we are today.
100x is really not as crazy as you think. The other Google news from a few days ago was that they had 2x hardware efficiency improvement over their last generation of TPUs. 6x more compute per power by including data center improvements and that's not even including model efficiency improvements.

It only takes two generations of 10x to reach 100x. Or 3 generations of 5x. Simple Moore's law scaling gets you there in about a decade, which is not that difficult to pull off for a large company running on debt and investment.
 
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