Stop trying to make the Kessler Effect a thing. It was not a thing, it will never be a thing. Have you read how long it is supposed to take to occur? Think decades.
Eh, if the Chinese build two constellations in high-LEO to MEO and keep leaving the rocket bodies up there with the comms birds, then they might end up giving it a try. 100-1000+ year debris lifetimes (as they descend) is at least the opening salvo for such a disaster. If Amazon and SpaceX keep theirs in the active-stationkeeping-required portion of the upper atmosphere, they probably won't start the fire, as it were.