Everything we know about the Lucid Air electric vehicle

Early adopters will need deep pockets, because 517 miles of range isn't cheap.

Read the whole story

 

[Keith Tanner]

As it stands, a $40,000 electric car now rivals the 5-10 year TCO on mainstream, $25-30k vehicles.

That was a substantially better argument before this year. I've filled up my not-particularly-efficient Jetta twice since March.

Electric cars have already captured a large fraction of the market focused on TCO and able to afford the up-front. True widescale adoption requires a new electric car to be at least as cheap as a new gas car AND a used electric car to be both as cheap as a used gas car and not substantially worse. That's the real trick, as the used market is the true mass market.

True, you need to actually use a car for the post-sale economics to kick in

Do used electrics really need to be as cheap as a used gas car? Used trucks are more expensive than used cars (relatively speaking) because they're more useful and you can actually make money with them. The used market values them more highly. Would you not expect that to play out with EVs as well? If the market realizes that they're cheaper to own, they'll value them more highly. It's why a used Maserati is cheaper than a used Camry

 

[Deleted member 28951]

15 years into the electric car revolution and we're still being told that high priced vehicles are needed to convince the market to buy into this future tech.

Time to make a vehicle that competes with the camry and accords of the world.

The lifecycle cost of a Model 3 is lower than an Accord or Camry.

That remains to be proven. While that will most probably end up true for mass market BEVs in general, virtually none have yet reached the average age of cars on the road in either Europe or the US (~12 years), let alone the average lifetime of a car (15-17 years until scrapped) -- they're simply too new.

And there's reasonable doubt the above claim will actually be true for Teslas in particular, given their attitude to allowing 3d-party repair, or selling parts to the public. BEVs still have all the usual non-drivetrain systems & components ICEVs do, which need to be serviced / repaired / replaced, and not being able ot do that at a cheap independent mechanic 10 years down the road will be a barrier to reasonable TCO.

 

[phoenix_rizzen]

Price points of $169k, $139k, $95k, and ~$80k? I'm sure that they'll sell as many as they can make initially to people for whom money doesn't really matter, but those prices put them directly up against Mercedes S-class (for example). There's a market there, but if they have any fit/finish/quality issues I expect they'll have trouble playing in the luxury/prestige segment. EVs aren't new/unique enough for them to benefit from the novelty & signaling factors that Tesla did.

I wish them well, but unless/until they can cut those prices in half, they're not going to be a mass-market player or competitor to Tesla, much less VW, Kia, or other large automakers rolling out EVs at mass-market prices.

I don't think Lucid has ever said it wants to be a mass-market OEM, that's just people projecting their hopes (and Tesla's ever-changing business plan) onto them. In every conversation I've had with Rawlinson and Lucid he's been explicit about the fact that the car is a luxury car.

And the S-Class is a definite target.

What does "ever-changing business plan" mean? Is it a slam against Tesla in the sense that you are claiming they are rudderless and shiftless and lacking vision? Are they constantly switching plans based on the newest fads?

Or are they simply executing on: make an expensive hand built roadster. Use that cash to make a sedan. Use that cash to make an SUV, use the cash from that to make a cheaper car. Use the cash from that to make even cheaper cars. All gated by battery R&D of course, which is only slowly bringing down battery costs each year, but nevertheless on track to surpass ICE by 2023 or so.

All I see is "we are going to make this vehicle, here is the prototype". Later I see that exact same vehicle in production. Not some watered down piece of crap like with regular car companies. The actual thing they showed. The actual styling and pizazz.

You forgot the detours into making a Semi and a "truck".

 

[real mikeb_60]

Price points of $169k, $139k, $95k, and ~$80k? I'm sure that they'll sell as many as they can make initially to people for whom money doesn't really matter, but those prices put them directly up against Mercedes S-class (for example). There's a market there, but if they have any fit/finish/quality issues I expect they'll have trouble playing in the luxury/prestige segment. EVs aren't new/unique enough for them to benefit from the novelty & signaling factors that Tesla did.

I wish them well, but unless/until they can cut those prices in half, they're not going to be a mass-market player or competitor to Tesla, much less VW, Kia, or other large automakers rolling out EVs at mass-market prices.

I don't think Lucid has ever said it wants to be a mass-market OEM, that's just people projecting their hopes (and Tesla's ever-changing business plan) onto them. In every conversation I've had with Rawlinson and Lucid he's been explicit about the fact that the car is a luxury car.

And the S-Class is a definite target.

What does "ever-changing business plan" mean? Is it a slam against Tesla in the sense that you are claiming they are rudderless and shiftless and lacking vision? Are they constantly switching plans based on the newest fads?

Or are they simply executing on: make an expensive hand built roadster. Use that cash to make a sedan. Use that cash to make an SUV, use the cash from that to make a cheaper car. Use the cash from that to make even cheaper cars. All gated by battery R&D of course, which is only slowly bringing down battery costs each year, but nevertheless on track to surpass ICE by 2023 or so.

All I see is "we are going to make this vehicle, here is the prototype". Later I see that exact same vehicle in production. Not some watered down piece of crap like with regular car companies. The actual thing they showed. The actual styling and pizazz.

You forgot the detours into making a Semi and a "truck".

Companies that have tried to move a show car or prototype directly into production have all had problems. Tesla's not alone in that regard. OTOH, Tesla's prototypes were far closer to production-ready than most, and Tesla had the knowledge and financial backing to get the problems (mostly) fixed during early production. It's always been said that one should not buy a new model (completely new design) the first year; that's certainly true with Tesla as well. But after the first year, carmakers like Ford (looking at Focus and the dual-clutch transmission debacle, which never really was fixed until they killed off the car itself) still have problems, just fewer of them, while Tesla produces a fairly solid car after the first year or so. Tesla is also able to insert production process changes as they go along without generating a completely new model (like the changes in body castings that are coming up, which should make for a more solid structure), which is unusual in other cars.

So starting with "here's a prototype" and moving straight into production makes the first batch of buyers into beta testers, but Tesla eventually gets it mostly right. The question is whether anything is done to make those original buyers whole.

 

[real mikeb_60]

As it stands, a $40,000 electric car now rivals the 5-10 year TCO on mainstream, $25-30k vehicles.

That was a substantially better argument before this year. I've filled up my not-particularly-efficient Jetta twice since March.

Electric cars have already captured a large fraction of the market focused on TCO and able to afford the up-front. True widescale adoption requires a new electric car to be at least as cheap as a new gas car AND a used electric car to be both as cheap as a used gas car and not substantially worse. That's the real trick, as the used market is the true mass market.

True, you need to actually use a car for the post-sale economics to kick in

Do used electrics really need to be as cheap as a used gas car? Used trucks are more expensive than used cars (relatively speaking) because they're more useful and you can actually make money with them. The used market values them more highly. Would you not expect that to play out with EVs as well? If the market realizes that they're cheaper to own, they'll value them more highly. It's why a used Maserati is cheaper than a used Camry

At least in my part of California, a used Bolt at 3 years old (the typical time when it comes off lease) is priced in the same ballpark as a mid-trim Prius of similar age and mileage. The difference is that the average Bolt of that age has around 35K miles on it, while the average Prius at that age is closer to 50K miles. Difference between being mainly a commuter and run-around car and being usable for anything (so a Prius does get used routinely for long trips). Both are out of the basic warranty (2 or 3 years), but have several years of the emissions/hybrid or electric systems/battery warranties still available. Both would be good used-car buys at that point.

 

[Snark218]

Revolution has to be affordable.

Regular range oven
- 30 to 90 mins cooking time
- $350

Microwave oven
- 3 mins cooking time
- $35

We need a $10k EV that does 500 miles on a charge.

There isn’t a friggin’ gasser that goes 500 miles on a tank for $10k new. C’mon.

 

[numerobis]

Revolution has to be affordable.

Regular range oven
- 30 to 90 mins cooking time
- $350

Microwave oven
- 3 mins cooking time
- $35

We need a $10k EV that does 500 miles on a charge.

There isn’t a friggin’ gasser that goes 500 miles on a tank for $10k new. C’mon.

https://snowmobiles.polaris.com/en-ca/indy/indy-144/

Plus about five of these:
https://www.tenaquip.com/product/scepte ... 609-sak856

I guess I'm assuming you already have the qamutiq to haul your stuff, otherwise you've busted the budget unless you can find some of those other parts on sale.

 

[Timtheenchanter]

15 years into the electric car revolution and we're still being told that high priced vehicles are needed to convince the market to buy into this future tech.

Time to make a vehicle that competes with the camry and accords of the world.

It would be nice, but the cost of batteries and the power electronics is still prohibitive.

Incremental improvements yes, but as yet no Henry Ford moment for lithium cells.

The Model T went down in price about a factor of 6 in about 15 years. Batteries went down in price about 10-fold last decade.

What revolution are you waiting for that hasn't already happened?

You need to cast your net more widely on the history of technology to understand.
When the Model T appeared, it was 20 years since the Fraubenzfahrt to Pforzheim of 1888. And an immense amount of development had taken place since then - the Benz engine was derived from steam practice, whereas the Model T engine would be recognised as a standard in line 4 cylinder engine today (if a little primitive). The cost of horsepower had already declined at least as fast as the decline in cost of lithium batteries.

The Ford revolution was mass production which dropped the price of cars dramatically and suddenly. It was a step change.
There hasn't been a sudden dramatic step change in the cost of batteries and power electronics and because they are already mass produced, I doubt there ever will be. I don't think an electric car will ever get to the same on the road cost (and mass per unit carrying capacity) of an ICE.

Which implies that in much of the world, if we are going to decarbonise, the future of transport looks very different.

Looking at battery costs over the last decade shows a dramatic drop in cost per kilowatt-hour, 87 % from 2010 to 2020. So a medium size battery of 65kWh cost $71,500 in 2010, and in 2019 cost $10,100. I don’t know your definition of dramatic change, but to me that is really dramatic. And that drop was not from any monumental breakthrough in battery technology, these are improvements in chemistry of lithium ion batteries invented in the 90’s. Many battery / EV experts expect $100/kWh to be achieved in the next couple years based on continued improvements in chemistry, manufacturing and supply chain optimization. That battery will then cost $6,500 which is pretty amazing. This would be a good battery for ~250 mile range midsize car.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... 13554299=1

Looking at the history of the electronics industry shows that progress in performance is dramatic over time and costs tend to fall quickly for equivalent level of capabilities. Unlike mechanical components, when a new electrical component is invented, it tends to be easy to mass produce, improves rapidly and get cheaper. EVs are already dramatically higher performing than ICE on every basis except range. They are going to be dramatically cheaper than ICE for equivilent performance in 10 years in my opinion, just through iterative improvements in existing technologies.

A dramatic technology breakthrough in electrical energy storage (e.g. solid state batteries, super capacitors) or electronics (e.g. room temp superconductors) could provide a sort of step function in technology that we never saw in ICE, but these are tough to forecast.

 

[Snark218]

Revolution has to be affordable.

Regular range oven
- 30 to 90 mins cooking time
- $350

Microwave oven
- 3 mins cooking time
- $35

We need a $10k EV that does 500 miles on a charge.

There isn’t a friggin’ gasser that goes 500 miles on a tank for $10k new. C’mon.

https://snowmobiles.polaris.com/en-ca/indy/indy-144/

Plus about five of these:
https://www.tenaquip.com/product/scepte ... 609-sak856

I guess I'm assuming you already have the qamutiq to haul your stuff, otherwise you've busted the budget unless you can find some of those other parts on sale.

I mean, doesn't everybody have a qamutiq in the back of the garage?

 

[PseudoNick]

15 years into the electric car revolution and we're still being told that high priced vehicles are needed to convince the market to buy into this future tech.

Time to make a vehicle that competes with the camry and accords of the world.

The higher priced vehicles most likely have a higher markup, which means more money to get the company started. It's the same as what Tesla did to raise money. They're not a (thankfully) Ford or GM or some other major car manufacturer that has plenty of other vehicles to sell.

 

[Timtheenchanter]

15 years into the electric car revolution and we're still being told that high priced vehicles are needed to convince the market to buy into this future tech.

Time to make a vehicle that competes with the camry and accords of the world.

The higher priced vehicles most likely have a higher markup, which means more money to get the company started. It's the same as what Tesla did to raise money. They're not a (thankfully) Ford or GM or some other major car manufacturer that has plenty of other vehicles to sell.

Times have changed since 2011 when Tesla produced model S. Back then battery costs were 10 times higher. Tesla did not have a choice, but companies today are a lot more free. VW’s first serious EV (I mean built for EV and not an ICE conversion) is a mass market car which is within reach of Middle income consumers. And RIVIAN’s initial trucks start at $69,000, in the range of some luxury truck prices.

This lucid car will only appear on the cover of magazines and take spaces in rich people’s garages. Maybe that is a good starting point? Not likely to sell too many of these, but maybe in another decade or so Lucid will turn the auto world upside down?

 

[Statistical]

15 years into the electric car revolution and we're still being told that high priced vehicles are needed to convince the market to buy into this future tech.

Time to make a vehicle that competes with the camry and accords of the world.

The higher priced vehicles most likely have a higher markup, which means more money to get the company started. It's the same as what Tesla did to raise money. They're not a (thankfully) Ford or GM or some other major car manufacturer that has plenty of other vehicles to sell.

Times have changed since 2011 when Tesla produced model S. Back then battery costs were 10 times higher. Tesla did not have a choice, but companies today are a lot more free. VW’s first serious EV (I mean built for EV and not an ICE conversion) is a mass market car which is within reach of Middle income consumers. And RIVIAN’s initial trucks start at $69,000, in the range of some luxury truck prices.

This lucid car will only get it on the cover of magazine and get spaces in rich people’s garages. Maybe that is a good starting point? Not likely to sell too many though.

Batteries have gotten cheaper but not quite 10x. However range expectations have also risen. VW has the funds to operate at scale and take losses on their EV wing for many years if necessary. A startup selling 10K vehicles in their first year just won't have the same pack prices as Tesla does today (and VW should have soon).

 

[Timtheenchanter]

15 years into the electric car revolution and we're still being told that high priced vehicles are needed to convince the market to buy into this future tech.

Time to make a vehicle that competes with the camry and accords of the world.

The higher priced vehicles most likely have a higher markup, which means more money to get the company started. It's the same as what Tesla did to raise money. They're not a (thankfully) Ford or GM or some other major car manufacturer that has plenty of other vehicles to sell.

Times have changed since 2011 when Tesla produced model S. Back then battery costs were 10 times higher. Tesla did not have a choice, but companies today are a lot more free. VW’s first serious EV (I mean built for EV and not an ICE conversion) is a mass market car which is within reach of Middle income consumers. And RIVIAN’s initial trucks start at $69,000, in the range of some luxury truck prices.

This lucid car will only get it on the cover of magazine and get spaces in rich people’s garages. Maybe that is a good starting point? Not likely to sell too many though.

Batteries have gotten cheaper they haven't gotten 10x cheaper since 2012.

Just about 90%
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... 13554299=1

 

[TurboPascal]

I mostly ignore these cars considering the starting price of $77,400.

Unless they can make the same nice looking cars with the range listed in this story for under $40,000 I am seriously not interested and it is going to be a barrier for many.

Cars like this are still virtue signaling cars for the rich.

My problem with all the electric cars is the more affordable ones are ugly as F and cars like this are way too expensive and not affordable for the avg income.