That AST satellite costs $22M. I'm sure that New Glenn has larger, more expensive payloads on its launch schedule. Space Force likely is gearing up for an in-depth post flight investigation before putting one of their $500 million(+) military satellites on NG.
It isn't about the value of the lost satellite as much as it is about the downstream delays and questions that get raised. If they 1st stage crashed during landing and didn't land but the payload was delivered successfully Blue would be in much better shape.
The cold shower reality is DoD/Space Force is going to delay any $500 million satellite launches until NG figures out what when wrong and most likely fly another few 2 to 3 flights proving it has, today's problem fixed. If DoD needs to launch that satellite sooner we all know who they are going to call.
If Blue had launched over 100 NG's already I would say any problems would be well understood or trouble shooting any issues can happen much faster with a large database of successful launches to compare to. The reality is this is still all very new to Blue. The investigation is going to require plenty of new ground to get tilled, to dig into the what the problem could have been. I am guessing it will ground NG for at least 4 to 6 months at a minimum if they can zero in on the problem quickly.
Remember back in 2022 New Shepard was grounded with a problem with the BE-3 engines that lasted something like 15+ months. So maybe I am being too optimistic about this issue only delaying it 4-6 months?
It isn't like this is really going to dramatically impact Artemis anyways. I was expecting the Earth Orbiting Artemis 3 to happen in 2028. Then the Artemis 4 mission to happen closer to 2030 anyways. I do think SX will send at least 2 or 3 test ships to the Moon before they dare put any humans on the ships. If Blue lands before that SX won't really care. SX operates at their own pace and they don't seem to care about things they can't control like what other companies are doing.
I don't think SX is depending on Orion or SLS to achieve the goals of Artemis 3 or 4. With the F9 and Crew Dragon they can test as they see fit. They should have 5 launch pads operations by the end of 2027. Landing the Starship and re flying them will be the 1st objectives then it will be orbital refueling. Only after that will the HLS testing happen in earnest.
I am sure there are solid plans for the HLS but they know landing and re flying Starships is the critical path forward. Also the bigger and better Starlink satellites are really SX's main objective if you wanted to make a $1 bet. It isn't the HLS. There doesn't seem to be any hardware ready to put on the Moon anyways even if the HLS was operational by EOY 2027. So orbital refueling testing can move at a more steady pace as long as the Starlink constellation is growing with the upgraded full sized V2 Satellites.
I haven't seen the billions in funding from Congress for the Lunar base equipment needed for a Moon base. I haven't even read an article about it yet. If I had to guess SX is working on that too. It would make more sense to build it in house, over waiting on Congress and NASA by the time a Moon base hardware was funded it will be 2040 at the earliest then it will be extremely expensive and delayed by another decade. In 2028 offer NASA/Congress a turn key Moon Base system that can grow like putting Lego's together and could also work or Mars. $30 billion total over 6 years for the Moon, including delivery. We all know if NASA builds out the hardware it will cost 4x and at least 3x longer.
NASA is at the mercy of the changing winds of USA politics. It can change tomorrow. Even if NASA cancels the Artemis contract with SX, SX knows NASA will be back. SX also isn't going to freak out about China. China doesn't control their plans.
Blue has plenty of time. Story worrying about the HLS. Figure out a fully reuseable launch system. Simplify the 2nd stage of NG. Go for a much cheaper 2nd stage, for Amazon's LEO. Then figure out a fully reusable 9-4 with all BE-4 engines. Ditch the H2 of the 2nd stage.
