Domestic consequences of the 2024 US presidential election: the quickening

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

Here is my prediction:

Big losses for the Republican Party in 2026. Trump continues to rule by ignoring Congress and SCOTUS continues to let him, only reining him in where they feel they absolutely need to. Economy continues to circle the drain. Democrats win the house, senate (but only 51-52 seats), and the presidency in 2028, inheriting a totally fucking awful mess. They are hobbled by centrist do-nothings who won’t let any real changes get made. 2030 the Republicans win at least the senate and possibly the house, then the presidency again in 2032, and Project 2025 starts up again, making things even worse.

Yeeeeeeuuup.

 

[Matisaro]

You need to literally start from the ground up. Local level, then at the state level and then federally.

Just like how the New Tea Party had to rebuild entirely separate from the ground up when the GOP did not represent them. Oh, wait, no they took over the GOP.

You don't rebuild a car from scratch to race in a fptp race, you carjack whichever car is easier to do so. You do so on every level by finding and bringing non voters into the party with the express goal of taking it over. Don't even get in the fray trying to convince the rank and file, we need to bring new blood into it and make that take over the goal.

 

[Shavano]

Just like how the New Tea Party had to rebuild entirely separate from the ground up when the GOP did not represent them. Oh, wait, no they took over the GOP.

You don't rebuild a car from scratch to race in a fptp race, you carjack whichever car is easier to do so. You do so on every level by finding and bringing non voters into the party with the express goal of taking it over. Don't even get in the fray trying to convince the rank and file, we need to bring new blood into it and make that take over the goal.

The Tea Party was a an astroturf job though.

 

[Megalodon]

The Tea Party was a an astroturf job though.

And this would be grassroots. So what?

 

[Matisaro]

The Tea Party was a an astroturf job though.

Who funded it does not change what it did, and with what tools. People, the tea party was funded by the old gop to try and motivate more voters to win elections and they took over the asylum.

Ours would not be crazy nor will it be bankrolled by the rich but the plan is the same none the less.


I also think anyone who gives it even a moment of deeper thought can see it is the only way out of this mess, we can not fix the problems of this nation with a filibuster neutered loser brigade and the progressive side of the party is the only one willing to shed the filibuster and also is where our most popular politicians come from.

 

[Megalodon]

I also think anyone who gives it even a moment of deeper thought can see it is the only way out of this mess, we can not fix the problems of this nation with a filibuster neutered loser brigade and the progressive side of the party is the only one willing to shed the filibuster and also is where our most popular politicians come from.

Let's also keep in mind that even as Trump is deeply unpopular the Dem party overall is itself actively reviled. The legacy is not an asset.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

Here's the problem with this:

You need to literally start from the ground up. Local level, then at the state level and then federally.

Yes, I've been saying that for years - and doing my part to help make it happen. Got one who is making a decent leap up this cycle.

Fortunately, there are already real progressives at local, state and federal levels. It's a matter of growth and cooperation, not "Jill Stein trying to do it alone"

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

He means primaries.

Primaries, nonpartisan elections - wherever we can make progress.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

The Tea Party was a an astroturf job though.

I typed up a bunch of details, but I've doxxed myself enough already in the past.

Suffice it to say that the Tea Party/Ron Paul 2008 showed me how easy it actually was to quickly get into the power structure of a political party.

Get involved with your local Democratic party. Make a difference. Get the best available candidates selected in the Primary and grow better ones for next time.

 

[Uragan]

He means primaries.

Primaries are just one part of it. Getting people on board with progressive candidates and initiatives at the local level will make them more likely to support progressive candidates and initiatives at the state level, and so on and so forth.

 

[Megalodon]

Primaries are just one part of it. Getting people on board with progressive candidates and initiatives at the local level will make them more likely to support progressive candidates and initiatives at the state level, and so on and so forth.

I mean that'll help but I don't think any grassroots effort could do more than watching Trump and Dems scramble to outdo each other selling the country out for AI magic beans.

Trump got where he is by being willing to assign blame for problems others aren't willing to acknowledge. Now he's the one that has to pretend everything is fine and progressive candidates are in a position to blame billionaires without much to counteract that narrative. I mean, tons of official and mainstream chaff pushing against it, but I think we've seen those things become unglued from the zeitgeist.

 

[Jordan83]

As suspected, it's not a ballroom, it's a privately funded Oracle AI datacenter with no oversight.

There's also some indication that the PEOC was destroyed along with the East Wing under which it sat, which tracks if it's being replaced by Skynet a really big server room.

Article boasts a pretty thorough list of references, too.

edit: This could also explain the plans to "improve" the cooling reflecting pool.

Let's not forget, from all the way back in the beginning of the year -

Trump unveils $500bn Stargate AI project between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank​

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/trump-ai-joint-venture-openai-oracle-softbank

Larry Ellison is a Trump supporter, and one of the wealthiest people on the planet. What do you want to bet that Donald Trump has substantially increased his shares in Oracle this year? Oh, and whose processors does Oracle AI use? That's right - Intel. You know, the company that the Trump administration has a 10% ownership share in.

Like Republicans like to say so often, amazingly with no sense of irony whatsoever - follow the money.

 

[Chanur64]

Here's the problem with this:

You need to literally start from the ground up. Local level, then at the state level and then federally. It's why third parties rarely perform well outside of Ross Perot and George Wallace. (And Perot didn't do nearly as well as Wallace did, because the political climate in 1968 was fucking weird and the South is/was just super fucking pissed about LBJ passing the Civil Rights Act of 1964.) It's why I always roll my eyes at Jill Stein trying to run for president. Even if she did get elected, there's no way in hell that any of her key platform agenda pieces would ever become reality because there are no Green Party congresspeople to back them.

I'm starting to become convinced that's not possible anymore. I look around and regardless of whether it's county sheriff, county judge, city, or micro-city so many positions are not even being contested. It's not possible to start at local when people aren't even showing up to contest anything. As for state legislature districts those are too gerrymandered for anyone to contest them anyway. It costs a lot of money and time to run for political offices, which is probably why people aren't even trying anymore until they have good odds of upsetting an unpopular incumbent.

The inverse is also true, I live in a small micro-city that's been landlocked by the 7th largest US city. I can't participate in SA's elections but I can watch them. For my own micro-city's elections, most of the last 20 years it's the same names, and same people running against them. I swear it's entirely out of personal spite & vendettas. Occasionally they even flip around on the ballot, but it's the same people. If they lose a seat they just apply for the next council seat that opens up. But today with a rapidly dwindling media resources, no local newspaper, and because it's local it is practically impossible to research them. There's no real reporting on them anymore, there's barely any records, they've been in politics 25 years but no wiki page exists, not even a page somewhere on what they voted for/against. Not even Ballotpedia or related sites have information on 90% of these people. So come every election the utmost nastiest mud gets slung back and forth... this last November I honestly couldn't even figure out which to vote for anymore. Both stink, both did highly suspect & questionable things, and both did altruistic virtuous things on the side. The closest thing analogous to reporting that's done anymore were the smattering of yellow "CAN YOU HANDLE THE TRUTH???? On Facebook" yard signs linking to a random person's Facebook page, those have popped up for council elections for the last 7+ years.

There was one year when each candidate running for a council position rang the doorbell and I listened to their entire sales pitch and arguments. Neither one was honest, both were liars that spent more time telling me why I shouldn't vote for the other person. Both men were my father's age. I didn't vote for either one.

 

[Bardon]

Ehh, to get to 2%, yeah I'd agree with you, but getting down to 2-6-2.7 in a year is feasible...if the Fed doesn't cut like crazy. As it stands I expect inflation to accelerate if they cut rates because housing will go up as people race to buy homes. Basically, they can get there if the K-shaped economy doesn't get worse, but it probably will.



Nah, there's no way the GOP can optically win 60% of the vote, let alone a Maduro style 90%+, even with chicanery, especially if the courts don't acquiesce immediately, which we're already seeing they're not doing. The SCOTUS would have to give up a lot of their own power and remaining legitimacy to do that, and one thing the court has not been willing to do is diminish its own power. Throw in a sprinkling of more political violence and I suspect that there's far less willingness openly defy the will of the public like there has been. And again, it doesn't take much here.

Do you think the SCOTUS wants to chance it with the Secret Service and FBI given they let someone clip Trumps ear? In a post-DOGE Washington? Nah, not a chance. They don't want to deal with endless, real, threats on their lives.

Trump's reality warping abilities need two things: Time and him. He won't have time on this. Time is why he couldn't get traction immediately after the 2020 election, try as he might. It took the years after to warp reality enough for him to become viable. But, he also doesn't have the brain he had even 18 months ago, and if anything he's surrounded himself with an even less capable and likable group than he had in 2020 and during the campaign.

JD Vance is not Mike Pence (I threw up a little in my mouth saying that). Too many people see how frail and vulnerable he's become. Look at Indiana backing away from redistricting. The GOP's confidence in him is deeply shaken, even if they won't say it. I bet the GOP in Texas is feeling deep regret about their decision right now.

To be clear, neither the Secret Service nor the FBI "let someone clip Trumps ear". If his ear had actually been clipped it would not be pristine and unmarked today - ears just don't heal like that.

 

[Technarch]

To be clear, neither the Secret Service nor the FBI "let someone clip Trumps ear". If his ear had actually been clipped it would not be pristine and unmarked today - ears just don't heal like that.

It’s also weird that the agent in charge of Trump’s security detail that day… got promoted. Iirc he now runs the entire SS.

 

[VividVerism]

To be clear, neither the Secret Service nor the FBI "let someone clip Trumps ear". If his ear had actually been clipped it would not be pristine and unmarked today - ears just don't heal like that.

Oh Jesus Christ. His ear isn't even unmarked:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...-year-after-assassination-attempt/ar-AA1ItbNc

It’s also weird that the agent in charge of Trump’s security detail that day… got promoted. Iirc he now runs the entire SS.

Yeah, Trump promoted him. Because he has a longstanding personal relationship with Trump, and because he rushed to Trump's side to protect him. Trump likes to reward personal friends and values loyalty above anything else like "qualifications" or "expertise" or "any ability whatsoever to perform the job" when he makes appointments. No conspiracy required, just Trump being Trump:

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-w...tion-attempt-to-lead-secret-service-k69zqk8cn

Several other agents that day including the former SS director were disciplined for the bungled job securing the area:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/secret-se...empted-trump-assassination/story?id=123628351

Please don't spread baseless conspiracy theories here. If you want to continue trying to discredit the very well-documented assassination attempt of a prominent public figure that took place live on national TV, if you want to continue telling everyone not to believe their lying eyes, then citation VERY much needed.

Edit to add: Here's a more complete breakdown of the ear healing and how it's not at all inconsistent with ear injuries. Turns out ears do just heal like that: https://factually.co/fact-checks/health/trump-ear-injury-fast-recovery-6fee47

Edit #2: There's also the fact that the guy in the crowd directly behind Trump died when the bullet intended for Trump hit him. Now, I haven't seen a ballistics report confirming the trajectory would have passed by Trump's head, but I am fairly sure if the trajectory doesn't come close enough to where Trump was standing, there would be reputable sources you can cite to show that. This was a real, actual assassination attempt. A combination of Trump getting lucky, the shooter's aim being off, the shooter deciding to go for a headshot instead of center mass, and the secret service ensuring he didn't get a second shot off left us where we are today with Trump still alive and kicking and an uninvolved bystander dead.

 

[VividVerism]

Oh Jesus Christ. His ear isn't even unmarked:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...-year-after-assassination-attempt/ar-AA1ItbNc



Yeah, Trump promoted him. Because he has a longstanding personal relationship with Trump, and because he rushed to Trump's side to protect him. Trump likes to reward personal friends and values loyalty above anything else like "qualifications" or "expertise" or "any ability whatsoever to perform the job" when he makes appointments. No conspiracy required, just Trump being Trump:

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-w...tion-attempt-to-lead-secret-service-k69zqk8cn

Several other agents that day including the former SS director were disciplined for the bungled job securing the area:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/secret-se...empted-trump-assassination/story?id=123628351

Please don't spread baseless conspiracy theories here. If you want to continue trying to discredit the very well-documented assassination attempt of a prominent public figure that took place live on national TV, if you want to continue telling everyone not to believe their lying eyes, then citation VERY much needed.

Edit to add: Here's a more complete breakdown of the ear healing and how it's not at all inconsistent with ear injuries. Turns out ears do just heal like that: https://factually.co/fact-checks/health/trump-ear-injury-fast-recovery-6fee47

Edit #2: There's also the fact that the guy in the crowd directly behind Trump died when the bullet intended for Trump hit him. Now, I haven't seen a ballistics report confirming the trajectory would have passed by Trump's head, but I am fairly sure if the trajectory doesn't come close enough to where Trump was standing, there would be reputable sources you can cite to show that. This was a real, actual assassination attempt. A combination of Trump getting lucky, the shooter's aim being off, the shooter deciding to go for a headshot instead of center mass, and the secret service ensuring he didn't get a second shot off left us where we are today with Trump still alive and kicking and an uninvolved bystander dead.

Quoting myself because continued edits to add new content are frowned upon.

One more thing that occurred to me: motive.

The shooter had to have known he wasn't leaving that rooftop alive. What made him do it?

I haven't heard a whisper of any sort of monetary payments or other benefits paid out to his family or friends.

I don't have the impression he was a MAGA
zealot willing to martyr himself for the cause.

Why go through with something like that, facing certain death for the sake of a faked assassination attempt all for a PR ruse to benefit a politician he wasn't even a huge supporter of?

 

[Coriolanus]

Quoting myself because continued edits to add new content are frowned upon.

One more thing that occurred to me: motive.

The shooter had to have known he wasn't leaving that rooftop alive. What made him do it?

I haven't heard a whisper of any sort of monetary payments or other benefits paid out to his family or friends.

I don't have the impression he was a MAGA
zealot willing to martyr himself for the cause.

Why go through with something like that, facing certain death for the sake of a faked assassination attempt all for a PR ruse to benefit a politician he wasn't even a huge supporter of?

This is reminding me of the early 2000s "9/11 was an inside job" post.

Edit: This is not directed at you, but the post you responded to.

 

[Klinn]

As suspected, it's not a ballroom, it's a privately funded Oracle AI datacenter with no oversight.

There's also some indication that the PEOC was destroyed along with the East Wing under which it sat, which tracks if it's being replaced by Skynet a really big server room. Article boasts a pretty thorough list of references, too.

Thanks for bringing this up. Sounds like a great place to hunker down to avoid any of the future civil unrest. It will be interesting to see if the story gets picked up and more details emerge.

We probably won't have to wait too long -- Hegseth will mention it in a Signal chat, and of course Trump won't be able to resist talking about how it's the bestest in whole universe and how gold plated it all is, probably giving tours to visiting Saudi princes.

 

[AverageDutchGuy]

Quoting myself because continued edits to add new content are frowned upon.

One more thing that occurred to me: motive.

The shooter had to have known he wasn't leaving that rooftop alive. What made him do it?

I haven't heard a whisper of any sort of monetary payments or other benefits paid out to his family or friends.

I don't have the impression he was a MAGA
zealot willing to martyr himself for the cause.

Why go through with something like that, facing certain death for the sake of a faked assassination attempt all for a PR ruse to benefit a politician he wasn't even a huge supporter of?

It's clearly not what was happening here, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's entirely possible to get an irrational person to do something entirely irrational like kill themselves "for the cause".

 

[AverageDutchGuy]

As suspected, it's not a ballroom, it's a privately funded Oracle AI datacenter with no oversight.

There's also some indication that the PEOC was destroyed along with the East Wing under which it sat, which tracks if it's being replaced by Skynet a really big server room.

Article boasts a pretty thorough list of references, too.

edit: This could also explain the plans to "improve" the cooling reflecting pool.

Damn, that article makes a scary amount of sense...

 

[VividVerism]

It's clearly not what was happening here, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's entirely possible to get an irrational person to do something entirely irrational like kill themselves "for the cause".

Yes, absolutely. If he were part of the cause. But this guy in particular doesn't really seem to be a die-hard Trumper or even a particularly dedicated conservative:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Crooks#Political_activities

Authorities have said that Crooks' political views are unknown, and they have not determined whether his assassination attempt was politically motivated. Public records do not indicate his views.

On January 20, 2021, when Crooks was 17, he donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project, a liberal voter turnout group, through the Democratic Party donation platform ActBlue. His donation was made on the same day that President Biden was sworn into office. According to the Progressive Turnout Project, he made the donation in response to an email about "tuning into" the inauguration. He unsubscribed from the group's mailing list in 2022.

Crooks had been registered to vote since September 2021, when he turned 18. He registered as a Republican, and he voted only once (in the 2022 midterm elections). In 2022, Crooks wrote about George Orwell's essay "Shooting an Elephant", calling it "a powerful allegory warning against adopting imperialistic policies".

In April 2023, Crooks showed his frustration with American politics in a school essay about ranked-choice voting, where he claimed "divisive and incendiary campaigns are pulling the country apart".

If it came out the guy had been attending Trump rallies and voted for Trump in both prior elections or something the theory would have slightly more credibility, but as it is, any motive for the shooter other than "he thought the world would be better off without Trump so he wanted to take him out" is going to need a lot of proof presented in opposition to what we already know.

 

[LtKernelPanic]

I'm hoping for something closer to the 1932-style blowout, when the Democrats regained the Presidency, gained 101 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate.

I’d be happy with enough to impeach and remove trump and vance. Or at least get close enough in the senate that maybe someone from the gop will grow a spine and vote for removal. Then they can go after the rest of the corrupt regime.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

I’d be happy with enough to impeach and remove trump and vance. Or at least get close enough in the senate that maybe someone from the gop will grow a spine and vote for removal. Then they can go after the rest of the corrupt regime.

In a 1932(2026) scenario, we wouldn't reach that level of Democratic control until after the 1934 (2028) election.

Whether it could be accomplished before then depends on how much the GOP turns on Trump when they get whacked hard in the 2026 election.

 

[Ecmaster76]

As suspected, it's not a ballroom, it's a privately funded Oracle AI datacenter with no oversight.

There's also some indication that the PEOC was destroyed along with the East Wing under which it sat, which tracks if it's being replaced by Skynet a really big server room.

Article boasts a pretty thorough list of references, too.

edit: This could also explain the plans to "improve" the cooling reflecting pool.

An interesting analysis (not completely bullet proof) but it has quite the omission: why?

They could literally build it anywhere and have it be much less conspicuous. And much larger too. Or use any number of existing government or private facilities.

And to what end? The existing state surveillance apparatus already eclipses anything they could hope to build there in a few years.


Occams and Hanlons apply: this boondoggle is a vanity project

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

One item I neglected to include in my most recent encouragement to organize progressives: Make it look organized.

Make a name for your local progressive group "Wabash County Progressive Democrats" or "Wasbash Kingslayers" or whatever fits your theme. County level is a good goal.

Make a simple logo, maybe a slogan.

Throw together a simple website/Facebook/whatever and email address. Use your logo.

Spend a few bucks on some business cards to hand out. I use VistaPrint. Include your logo, website/FB/whatever and email address.

Have meetings and group communications, even if only virtual. Despite Hegseth's example, Signal is actually a good tool. Do outreach to recruit more members and get them active.

When you interact with the Establishment in the party, you can now hand them a card and refer to yourself as heading up (or being a member) of the Wabash Progressive Democrats faction. Volunteer to do shit. Volunteer to be on committees. Etc.

 

[Technarch]

An interesting analysis (not completely bullet proof) but it has quite the omission: why?

The article touches on that--a datacenter on WH grounds is not subject to oversight by anyone else. Perfect for surveilling citizens and affecting elections.

 

[Uragan]

It’s also weird that the agent in charge of Trump’s security detail that day… got promoted. Iirc he now runs the entire SS.

I just want to point out that it’s the “USSS”. Using “SS” makes me instantly think of “Schutzstaffel” and while the US is definitely slipping in that direction and fast, I don’t think it is quite there yet.

 

[Technarch]

I just want to point out that it’s the “USSS”. Using “SS” makes me instantly think of “Schutzstaffel” and while the US is definitely slipping in that direction and fast, I don’t think it is quite there yet.

I quite deliberately chose to refer to the SS as the SS and I think it's perfectly apt for an administration that has gone full fascist. That said I'll use USSS going forward.

 

[Uragan]

I quite deliberately chose to refer to the SS as the SS and I think it's perfectly apt for an administration that has gone full fascist. That said I'll use USSS going forward.

I mean I guess? I’d say that ICE is more like the SA and the SS, in my honest opinion, than the USSS. The USSS isn’t going around picking people off of the streets and making them disappear and/or putting them into concentration camps. ICE is.

 

[Megalodon]

I've mentioned how the Dems don't want to learn from their mistakes. This is easy to figure out independently, but they've now made it official policy and decided not to publish their 2024 post mortem.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/us/politics/dnc-2024-autopsy-democrats-ken-martin.html

 

[LTParis]

I've mentioned how the Dems don't want to learn from their mistakes. This is easy to figure out independently, but they've now made it official policy and decided not to publish their 2024 post mortem.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/us/politics/dnc-2024-autopsy-democrats-ken-martin.html

Of course, because their level of incompetence is laid to bare. Guess it was that bad they it was worse press on publicizing.

 

[Uragan]

I've mentioned how the Dems don't want to learn from their mistakes. This is easy to figure out independently, but they've now made it official policy and decided not to publish their 2024 post mortem.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/us/politics/dnc-2024-autopsy-democrats-ken-martin.html

Just because they decided not to make it public doesn't mean they aren't willing to learn from its contents.

 

[DarthSlack]

Just because they decided not to make it public doesn't mean they aren't willing to learn from its contents.

If only a handful of people know what's in the report, how do we know if they've learned anything?

 

[CPX]

If only a handful of people know what's in the report, how do we know if they've learned anything?

There's a non-zero chance the study claimed poor reasoning staked out poor positions based on shoddy or slanted methodology. We'll honestly never know at this point, because 2026 and 2028 aren't 2024.

edit- obvious strikes for clarity

 

[Crolis]

“Haven’t we rehashed 2024 enough?” said Daniel Wessel, a former communications adviser to the D.N.C. “We just won a bunch of elections this year. There is also a lot of good to be learned from there.”

This is Dems in a nutshell. Trump and the GOP so shit they can't help but win and then think they are geniuses and have it all figured out.

 

[Pocky Is God]

I didn't realize this, but a lot of technobro/oligarch sect are gay. A lot of the podcaster talking heads for the right are gay...

Is this long winded retribution for Stonewall? I AM SORRY! I WASN'T EVEN ALIVE BUT I'M SORRY. WE ARE ALL SORRY. PLEASE STOP DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY. /s

(joking of course, but I had no idea Dave Rubin, Peter Theil, Sam Altman were light in the loafers)

 

[wco81]

Well they support an administration which is cutting LGBTQ rights. Just today, RFKJ and that asshole Dr. Oz are going to announce a ban on gender-affirming care for minors.

As long as it means $$$ for them, right?

 

[invertedpanda]

Well they support an administration which is cutting LGBTQ rights. Just today, RFKJ and that asshole Dr. Oz are going to announce a ban on gender-affirming care for minors.

As long as it means $$$ for them, right?

I have no doubt they are all mostly "LGB minus the T" folks.. And then you've got the self-hating folks, and the "Oh, it's all the others that'll have consequences, not me".. Which, in some cases, is probably true.

 

[Yagisama]

They are architects of humanities future. Sacrifices will be made by others, but I'm sure they all think it will be worth it.