Common factors link rise in pedestrian deaths—fixing them will be tough

A new AAA study finds common factors in the rise of fatal pedestrians crashes.

See full article...

 

[noone.of.import]

An aunt of mine was killed in this way. She was poor, so lived "in the boonies". She would walk to the nearby grocery store, but the roads nearby have no pedestrian infrastructure, have very high speed limits, and drivers are likely not expecting pedestrians. A surprising number of people outside of cities have to walk to where they need to go, as well.

 

[poke 532810]

We do not need to accept pedestrian deaths as normal. https://usa.streetsblog.org/2013/02...top-murdering-children-street-safety-movement

 

[Ansible42]

The best way to avoid pedestrian deaths is to make travel by car not the default and less common.

 

[ashypans]

I need to have a more in depth read of their report but I didn't see a very compelling narrative as to what is causing the increase in pedestrian fatalities. It did a very good job of detailing where and when these events are happening. But it was weak on the "why is there more now" aspect. We've always had nights, multi-family housing isn't new and neither is poorly designed, pedestrian unfriendly infrastructure. That stuff certainly hasn't changed much in the last 10 years.

 

[TheNinja]

Reducing the spike in pedestrian deaths requires data-driven investments

The govt is allergic to both data and investments at the moment.

 

[AltoClefScience]

I need to have a more in depth read of their report but I didn't see a very compelling narrative as to what is causing the increase in pedestrian fatalities. It did a very good job of detailing where and when these events are happening. But it was weak on the "why is there more now" aspect. We've always had nights, multi-family housing isn't new and neither is poorly designed, pedestrian unfriendly infrastructure. That stuff certainly hasn't changed much in the last 10 years.

Yeah there's got to be some change in traffic volume or behavior, on either the pedestrian or driver side. The roads have basically been the same over the period in question.

 

[Ripaille]

Montreal, where I live, has been improving the safety of intersections by replacing the parking spots closest to the intersection with draining, green curbs.

It's fairly deep, and there's a low-capacity output to the sewer, so water accumulates there during heavy rains to preserve the rain sewer. Low vegetation helps pollinators, cools the streets and improves visibility from cars and pedestrians.

It's a fairly simple and cheap setup, and it pays for itself in just a few years, not just in lives saved from traffic collision, but also heat strokes (ambulances are expensive) and flood damage.

The one downside I know is that it prevents the parking lane to be transformed into a dedicated bus or bike lane, as the lane no longer crosses the intersection.

 

[poochyena]

more common in older neighborhoods, more socially deprived neighborhoods, neighborhoods with more multifamily housing, and neighborhoods with more "arts/entertainment/food/accommodations" workers.

Isn't that just simply places people are more likely to be walking?

 

[ninjaneer]

I don't have night vision after being hit with HID/LED headlights. If there's someone going home from a restaurant kitchen wearing all black then it's scarily all up to chance.

 

[Jeff S]

Has anyone looked into whether on-street parking may play a role? I wonder, because on street parking can make it hard to even realize there are pedestrians down the street (line of site being blocked by vehicles), until you are almost on top of them.

Now, of course, on street parking has been a thing that has existed for a long time, so this might not play a role. But I wonder if on street parking has become a lot more common over the decades, to the point where it has started playing a role, because there are more cars on the street, larger cars and trucks and vans that block the view more completely, etc?

 

[MagStone]

Anecdotally, in my city many of the pedestrian deaths are indeed on multi-lane arterial roads. And mostly where pedestrians are not crossing at intersections with crosswalks. It's not a matter of not having the crosswalks, they are crossing within eyesight of them.

Don't blame the pedestrians for taking the easiest way across the street, blame the road designers who failed to accommodate the reality of pedestrian travel patterns. Add to that, many multilane intersections cycle through the light too quickly for pedestrians to safely cross. As the article mentions, it's a shitshow of compounding factors that maybe can't be fixed without razing the exurban landscape and starting over.

 

[spVolt]

This is all pedestrian led - remove pedestrians from roads and they can't get killed on them. These aren't deaths caused by cars leaving the road surface

I'm sure we are all aware that the priority of vehicles over human beings and the "crime" of jaywalking were both invented and pushed onto the public by intense lobbying of state legislatures by the California Auto Club (now part of AAA) and various members of the United States Auto Club (USAC) and state automobile associations during the 1920s/30s? For the 10,000 years prior to those laws being passed it had been the absolute responsibility of vehicle operators not to hit people (later renamed "pedestrians").

 

[Fred Duck]

For those of you wondering what an "arterial road" is, the USDOTFHWA have provided an explanation, which says there are "four major road function classifications: Interstates, Other Arterials, Collectors, and Local roads" and that The Interstate System are classified as arterial roads, leaving only collectors and local roads as non-arterial roads.

Source:
https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/data_facts/docs/rd_func_class_1_42.pdf

I hope that helps!

This is all pedestrian led - remove pedestrians from roads and they can't get killed on them. These aren't deaths caused by cars leaving the road surface

That's victim-blaming. Until the United States have finished building their series of pneumatic transport tubes (as depicted in the hit series Futurama), pedestrians will continue to ped.

 

[Therblig]

Empirical observation from one who lives in a major U.S. city: When the pandemic greatly reduced traffic, extremely reckless driving surged. Extreme speeding, e.g. >80 MPH in 25 zones, running red lights and stop signs is far more common than it was pre-pandemic.

This is all pedestrian led - remove pedestrians from roads and they can't get killed on them. These aren't deaths caused by cars leaving the road surface

Yes, they do leave the road surface, e.g. driving down sidewalks, driving or skidding into shoulders or parking areas, and even going on ballistic trajectories into buildings, including occupied homes.

I don't step off the curb on a green light or "walk" signal any more until I see oncoming traffic in both directions come to a stop. It is necessary to assume that eeery driver is some combination of incompetent, drunk, drugged, distracted, or just plain stupid.

 

[chanman819]

For a while, researchers started seeing that the increased pedestrian death toll was almost entirely happening after dark and on urban arterial roads—this has continued to be true through 2022, the AAA report says.

It would have been helpful to mention the magnitude of that increase relative to the other factors mentioned.

These and some other factors (increased amount of driving, more alcohol consumption) have each played a small role, but even together, they don't explain the magnitude of the trend.

As @ashypans mentioned, there's a lack of mention for why already-dangerous situations seem to be getting more dangerous, even if it's just an increase in traffic volume or population living in those areas.

 

[poochyena]

This has got to depend on the city too, right? In my city, nearly all the pedestrian deaths are on large highways and stroads, not small residential roads.

https://smartgrowthamerica.org/dangerous-by-design/dbd-interactive-map/

High speeds is what kill people. Anywhere people are expected to cross a road should see reduced number of lanes and slower traffic if we actually care about reducing death.

 

[Zi8]

Just for some context, cars kill about 8000 pedestrians are killed each year in the US. Compare that to about 42,000 car crash deaths, and about 25,000 homicides. So it's near the top of the list of causes of violent deaths.

Sources: Pedestrian deaths, Crash deaths, Homicides

 

[joelliott]

I need to have a more in depth read of their report but I didn't see a very compelling narrative as to what is causing the increase in pedestrian fatalities. It did a very good job of detailing where and when these events are happening. But it was weak on the "why is there more now" aspect. We've always had nights, multi-family housing isn't new and neither is poorly designed, pedestrian unfriendly infrastructure. That stuff certainly hasn't changed much in the last 10 years.

I think they need to do a serious investigation of newer LED headlights here. I, and many others, find them almost completely blinding both when walking and when driving. I'd be interested in seeing even just a simple correlation analysis between number of cars with LED headlights and pedestrian deaths.

 

[Ryan B.]

One thing I didn't understand from the article - if the most deaths happen in older developments, why have deaths risen so sharply? Or, in other words, what has changed? Is it just because there are more people in the world, and so there are more people out and about?

 

[spVolt]

For those of you wondering what an "arterial road" is, the USDOTFHWA have provided an explanation, which says there are "four major road function classifications: Interstates, Other Arterials, Collectors, and Local roads" and that The Interstate System are classified as arterial roads, leaving only collectors and local roads as non-arterial roads.

Source:
https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/data_facts/docs/rd_func_class_1_42.pdf

I hope that helps!

Human-scaled living advocates observe that in the last 20-30 years there has been a massive increase in real estate developers and county governments working together to create "stroads" which do not fall into any of the defined categories. Stroads are neither human-scaled streets nor vehicle-scaled/priority roads but combine the most dysfunctional features of both. If you are at a big box strip mall and see another big box store or "outparcel" restaurant across a 4+2 lane stretch of pavement, which nominally has a striped crosswalk and pedestrian crossing lights but which realistically only Usain Bolt could cross on the green without being killed, and you have to get in your car and drive across that pavement to another giant parking lot, you have encountered a stroad. Of which there are more and more in the urban belts every year.

 

[MagStone]

I recently became a volunteer firefighter, and operate fire engines. I used to be a big road cyclist, and thought I had a pretty good idea of how terrible drivers are. I assumed they just didn't see me on my bike or perhaps didn't care. Now, after driving an enormous truck with flashing lights and sirens I realize that many drivers have very little situational awareness of any kind. They aren't selectively ignoring bicycles. They are selectively ignoring everything.

 

[Epimetheus_Secundus]

Has anyone looked into whether on-street parking may play a role? I wonder, because on street parking can make it hard to even realize there are pedestrians down the street (line of site being blocked by vehicles), until you are almost on top of them.

Now, of course, on street parking has been a thing that has existed for a long time, so this might not play a role. But I wonder if on street parking has become a lot more common over the decades, to the point where it has started playing a role, because there are more cars on the street, larger cars and trucks and vans that block the view more completely, etc?

The article cites arterial roads which don't usually have on-street parking. These are high-capacity multi-lane roads that are just below highway. This is not neighborhoods or retail districts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arterial_road

 

[spVolt]

In my area you can go into the places mentioned in the report and see tens of people just standing on the side of the road after dark like it's some kind of block party. People cross the street multiple times to greet someone on the other side of the road, not because they are visiting a retail establishment. At least in this area I think it's cultural in poor neighborhoods. No money, nothing to do, so you stand in the street.

Darn those human beings to heck for wanting to use their built environment to live in!

 

[AltoClefScience]

I read more on the report, particularly the case report on the Chapel Hill NC accidents. I live in the area and have vaguely followed the local news, and am familiar with the road in question (at least from the driver's perspective). I think the "what changed" might be local redevelopment patterns that increase pedestrian crossings. Specifically, there is a trailer park and older, lower-income apartment complex on the east side of the road, but the only retail within a 1-mile radius is a handful of gas station/convenience stores on the west side. Not long ago there was another convenience store on the east side, but it went out of business ~5 years ago and was recently demolished to build new higher priced apartments.

So I'm guessing that the loss of the only place to shop within walking distance for a lot of people without cars is causing more of them to risk crossing the road for late night errands.

Ironically, Chapel Hill has one of the best bus systems in the country for a town this size, and it's completely free. However the system is primarily built around the needs of UNC college students and employees, with peak weekday service for the 8-10 AM and 4-6 PM commuter rush hour. After that you get a couple more busses every half hour or hour, and no service after 9 PM.

 

[Zi8]

High speeds is what kill people. Anywhere people are expected to cross a road should see reduced number of lanes and slower traffic if we actually care about reducing death.

Where pedestrians are expected to cross a multilane road, shouldn't there be a traffic light with walk signals, if not a pedestrian under/overpass? I would think people would get killed as long as cars aren't required to stop, even if the speed limit is only 30mph.

 

[betam4x]

I do disagree with parts of this article, and yet also agree. Most of the pedestrian deaths in my area ARE due to distracted driving, yet they wouldn’t have happened if we had sidewalks and guarded bike lanes.

Another unmentioned factor that possibly contributes at least somewhat is the work from home explosion. Many go out for walks in their neighborhood during daytime, where as before they would not or would walk while at the office (office parks tend to have less traffic l and slower speeds, some companies also provide gyms.)

Overall I disagree this needs to be hard to fix. Forcing traffic to slow down, working on better safety features in cars (my car already applies the breaks if I am running up on a pedestrian or vehicle, even in a parking lot) and driver education will help.

Just my opinion, however.

We do need sidewalks and actual guarded bike lanes and should work on those, however what I mentioned before is basically already happening somewhat.

 

[Robin-3]

more common in older neighborhoods, more socially deprived neighborhoods, neighborhoods with more multifamily housing, and neighborhoods with more "arts/entertainment/food/accommodations" workers.

Isn't that just simply places people are more likely to be walking?

(sorry, apparently I still can't get my brain around multi-quote.)

Yes, but also places where people are more likely to be walking at night, and not for enjoyment. Shift work means walking in the dark or at dusk or dawn. And walking to/from work, errands, or the bus stop (instead of just being "out for a walk") means pedestrians more likely to be in a hurry, tired, and/or more likely to take shortcuts or have their mind on other things.

I'm guessing pedestrians' behavior, awareness, and priorities shift when they aren't walking for enjoyment or relaxation. It'll certainly lead to people walking even in places with less pedestrian-friendly infrastructure if that's where they need to be. But less obviously, if your goal is "Can't miss the bus" or "I'm so tired, I just want to get these groceries home and sit down" instead of "let's take a walk" I wouldn't be surprised if situational awareness becomes less prominent, and behaviors like crossing against a light or not at corners become more common. The destination is more important (reasonably!) than the walk itself, and that may be subconsciously coming through in how people act.

To be clear, that last paragraph is pure guesswork without data. Even if it's true, the solution isn't to gripe about people jaywalking but instead to create better and safer pedestrian infrastructure.

 

[mariupolo]

So eliminate vehicles from roadways and replace with? E-bikes? No..those operators are clearly just as bad, if not worse because silent. Horses? Ok..but that's alot of shit. Trams/buses? Still a vehicle (oh buses kill many) and who will operate, how often on the route? Elevated, automated monorail that stops at all intersections in suburan/rural areas? Good luck funding and building that!

More should have reflective clothes. Walk against traffic, not with. No, we don't need more "lighting" of rural roads UNLESS its AI lighting that determines there are pedestrians and they light up one ahead, above and one behind as they walk -like in parking garages. No county is going to install sidewalks let alone paved pathways. And there are always someone late night asshole that is tired or drunk or both or poor night vision that shouldn't be behind the wheel.
Too many people... THAT is the problem.

Bicycles are most definitely not nearly as bad as cars when it comes to danger to pedestrians. Buses are better if only because of how many car passenger-kilometres they can replace. Trams are especially good at coexisting with pedestrians because of visible fixed tracks and less lateral swaying during turns (because all axles turn along the same track). Metros and elevated railways can be surprisingly cost-efficient in some locations considering their high capacity and how much it costs to build and maintain roads and vehicles to achieve the same capacity with cars. Horses are best left for recreation and maybe mounted police in parks.

Telling people to wear the right clothes so they don't get violently killed or maimed is victim blaming at its finest.

 

[an.scott@neu.edu]

Empirical observation from one who lives in a major U.S. city: When the pandemic greatly reduced traffic, extremely reckless driving surged. Extreme speeding, e.g. >80 MPH in 25 zones, running red lights and stop signs is far more common than it was pre-pandemic.

Yes, they do leave the road surface, e.g. driving down sidewalks, driving or skidding into shoulders or parking areas, and even going on ballistic trajectories into buildings, including occupied homes.

I don't step off the curb on a green light or "walk" signal any more until I see oncoming traffic in both directions come to a stop. It is necessary to assume that eeery driver is some combination of incompetent, drunk, drugged, distracted, or just plain stupid.

 

[kenja]

I'll nominate the increase of homelessness as a factor.

 

[Keith Tanner]

(taken from https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/pedestrian-deaths-cars-suvs-roads-unsafe because it was the most up-to-date graph I could easily find)

If this were road design, we'd see a gradual increase in deaths. If it were based on headlights or the increased size of vehicles, same - it takes years to replace the whole US fleet. It's no surprise that the most dangerous places for pedestrians are places where there are most likely to be pedestrians, and that's nothing new.

For a sharp change like this, there has to be something that happened quickly across a large number of people. My theory? Smartphones. The iPhone was introduced in 2007 and shortly after we see the death toll start to rise quickly. It's all about distracted driving and distracted walking. Nobody's paying attention.

 

[demonbug]

I think they need to do a serious investigation of newer LED headlights here. I, and many others, find them almost completely blinding both when walking and when driving. I'd be interested in seeing even just a simple correlation analysis between number of cars with LED headlights and pedestrian deaths.

I think a big part of this is the approach of IIHS, which rewards brighter illumination of the road. They do look at spillover glare, but the fact is that the brighter you light the road in front of you, the greater the contrast ratio to anything outside that area - making anything outside the high-intensity lighting zone harder to see. My personal theory is that this is a big piece of the issue - we are massively over-illuminating the road, increasing driver comfort (and therefore speed) while making anything outside the primary illumination zone (or in shadow) increasingly difficult to see.

IMO "worse" headlights are often safer, especially in built-up areas (there's certainly an argument for more illumination in some situations).

 

[poochyena]

Where pedestrians are expected to cross a multilane road, shouldn't there be a traffic light with walk signals, if not a pedestrian under/overpass? I would think people would get killed as long as cars aren't required to stop, even if the speed limit is only 30mph.

Traffic lights do not stop distracted drivers. Traffic lights are not always nearby and can be a km or more away.