Chinese EV buyers are cooling on Tesla and BYD

WereCatf

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Musk has said the Tesla robots will find their way onto the company's production line to build cars, presumably to replace workers whom he would otherwise have to pay salaries and benefits. But the CEO has grander ambitions for his robots, claiming on an investor call last year that the company will sell billions of humanoid robots a year.
Given the propensity for Muckimucks xAI thingamabob to go wildly off-the-rails, you'd have to be a complete lunatic to want to buy robots that can cause actual physical damage all around them from Muckimuck. If I were running a factory, a warehouse or similar I wouldn't let Muckimuck's robots anywhere near even if I was paid for it.
 
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Cthel

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the company will sell billions of humanoid robots a year.
The current global labour force is estimated to be ~3.7billion.

Even assuming that these humanoid robots only manage the same 1/3rd duty cycle as humans, that means replacing every single worker on the planet in 4 years.

If you assume each humanoid robot replaces 3 humans, then in less than 2 years every worker on the planet will have been replaced by a Tesla humanoid robot.

Who exactly are the investors expecting to pay for this vast workforce? The newly-redundant ex-workers?
 
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Atterus

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Yeah and I have a bridge to sell too. Humanoid robots are an unimaginative child's idea of the future.
Right!?!? I wondered what purpose that could serve over a smaller (less prone to physically hurting people) drone with a tiny grabby arm... yeah...

Realspeak, I think wizards with guns did a skit on the inevitable future of having robot helpers in homes. Its... horrifying.
 
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Lexus Lunar Lorry

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The current global labour force is estimated to be ~3.7billion.

Even assuming that these humanoid robots only manage the same 1/3rd duty cycle as humans, that means replacing every single worker on the planet in 4 years.

If you assume each humanoid robot replaces 3 humans, then in less than 2 years every worker on the planet will have been replaced by a Tesla humanoid robot.

Who exactly are the investors expecting to pay for this vast workforce? The newly-redundant ex-workers?
Simple - Optimus will be both the buyer and the product. In the future, your robot slaves will themselves own slaves.
 
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julesverne

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Disappointed that Musk's tweet predicting that 80% of Tesla business would be Optimus wasn't included in the article. I guess the less shown of his bs, the better. But the claim was so gaga, I wanted to see it for myself. For the lolz. So, I opened his account on X to find it. And mistake! I'd last visited his account about a year ago. It had been bad, but now... he's mining even deeper in the shithouse. It's a toxic wasteland, I had to abort or risk puking on myself. No apologies, Musk and Musk supporters can go fuck themselves.
 
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TVPaulD

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Musk acts like his companies' AI & Robotics efforts are going to change the world. They're not even cutting edge or industry-leading. They're also-rans. Nobody should take anything he says on the subject seriously. He's not even delivered on their previous AI & autonomy ambitions, and he's off promising the next and exponentially greater thing.

Their track record of delivery is appalling and they've got no clear trajectory to get where he claims they're going. Anyone who was rational would have but one response: dump the stock. Dump it into the sea.

But Tesla's not a real company at this point, they've fully embraced their meme stock status. They're living on the irrationality of the market. Like a performance art piece about the sheer futility of capitalism.
 
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theOGpetergregory

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But the CEO has grander ambitions for his robots, claiming on an investor call last year that the company will sell billions of humanoid robots a year.
I run an automotive themed diner in California and my popcorn scooper has called in sick for the past two weeks causing my profits to plummet.

I would gladly replace him with a robot because finding specialized labor like that is incredibly expensive and hard to replace and uptime is key for a critical business like this. Fortunately robots never get sick or have their satellite Internet connection go out so they're able to work 24/7.

Very obvious /s
 
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astack

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Who exactly are the investors expecting to pay for this vast workforce? The newly-redundant ex-workers?
It's almost as if they haven't exactly thought this through. Everybody knows the old adage about the market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But, I am really starting to wonder what precisely is going on such that these investments, that large numbers of people know are over-valued, are still appreciating (e.g., bitcoin, AI, tesla).

Paul Krugman cites some evidence that it's because markets don't react until it's ridiculously obvious what's going on. Still, if you believe all this crap is over-valued and that a reckoning is coming, the longer this goes on, the bigger the crash will be when the market finally does react.
 
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effgee

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... Who exactly are the investors expecting to pay for this vast workforce? The newly-redundant ex-workers?
::shakesfist:: "Heathen… HERETIC!"

Shush, you're not supposed to ask questions like that.

That'll be a great race to watch: who'll replace humanity first, General AI that is now training itself after having devoured all human knowledge decades ago, or the Muskbots that furiously manufacture stuff none of the 12,000,000,000 unemployed will be able to afford? Can we play one against the other? Or perhaps forge an alliance with one to destroy the other?

These fucking tech bros... The Matrix and Wall-E were warnings, not an invitation, ye utter fuckwits.
 
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Robots are good at menial repetitive tasks. Presumably 1 person would not be replaced by 1 robot. But 1 human job might be replaced by something like 10 robots, each performing a more focused task.
But then you'd have to do the calculus on the ultimate cost benefits of charging, maintaining, and any other tasks required to keep 10 robots running versus paying 1 human employee... No doubt you'd be paying humans to keep all those robots running.
 
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Tremelune

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24c0013fffadab0bc5e186ff3f74e30f
 
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Voland78

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as of today, Tesla’s P/E stands at 197

which would be justified if.. well, there is no rationale justification apart from having just invented the anti-gravity engine, the cure for all cancers, or.. AGI i guess

the quintessential bubble, that will implode eventually. postponing the event is the reason why they awarded $ 29 billions of TSLA shares to Musk to keep him as CEO

as i often read on these pages, we live in a pretty weird timeline
 
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bobinson

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claiming on an investor call last year that the company will sell billions of humanoid robots a year.
If a CEO is incorrect about a prediction, that's legal. It is illegal to mislead investors. This statement will tie the legal system up for years trying to figure out if Musk is simply hopeful or just bald face lying.
 
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Yeah and I have a bridge to sell too. Humanoid robots are an unimaginative child's idea of the future.
kinda surprised robotics hasn't changed to a more therapod like design. Human legs are incredibly weird and unwieldy. Most other cases of bipedalism in the natural world are more like a trex - with bent legs and much more balance. Instead of humans with a straight knee column leg that you are precariously balanced on top of.
 
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ack154

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Erm... "the company will sell billions of humanoid robots a year."

Bullshit.

How on earth would that be possible, unless they're going to sell for something like $99. Mobile phone sales last year were less than 2 billion, globally, so even they don't amount to billions (plural) per year.
It is in no way a realistic number. He's said they'll cost around $30k. I've seen some notes about MAYBE $20k... He keeps saying he expects EVERYONE to buy these to work for them around the house or do dumb menial shit. But MANY (most?) people aren't even spending that much on their primary daily transportation, let alone a humanoid robot to do their laundry.
 
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AusPeter

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Right!?!? I wondered what purpose that could serve over a smaller (less prone to physically hurting people) drone with a tiny grabby arm... yeah...

Realspeak, I think wizards with guns did a skit on the inevitable future of having robot helpers in homes. It’s... horrifying.
I disagree. I’m moderately in the humanoid robot camp because when co-working with humans, in choosing between adapting the human world for robots, or adapting robots for the current human world I prefer the latter.

But with that said there are huge areas of robot usage that would be better served by dedicated machines than how humiform devices.

Finally, I have zero trust/belief in Musk delivering on his robotic promises.
 
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Fatesrider

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Despite the very non-humanoid shape of industrial robots in car factories, Musk has said the Tesla robots will find their way onto the company's production line to build cars, presumably to replace workers whom he would otherwise have to pay salaries and benefits. But the CEO has grander ambitions for his robots, claiming on an investor call last year that the company will sell billions of humanoid robots a year.
Gotta admit, it's nice to be able to know what's NOT coming in the future when Musk makes an announcement.
 
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