CDC estimates 140 million Americans have had COVID, about double case reports

About 37 million infected in omicron wave, and 58% of kids were infected at some point.

Read the whole story

 

[ranthog]

The sad part is there is pretty much no reason for most of those cases to have ever occurred, except for the war on public health. I hate to think of what the long term costs of this are to society.

 

[jdale]

Lower than I expected. Omicron, especially, was the one that everyone was going to catch, but in fact only about 11-12% of Americans caught it, according to this data. (A little higher than that, because it tailed into February, but that would be the bulk of it.)

 

[Null_Space]

"Still, the seroprevalence data looking at antibodies just from prior infections reflects the success of vaccination as well as the higher death rate in older people. When the data is spread out by age, older groups with the highest levels of vaccination and higher risks of death have the lowest rates of past infection, and vice versa. "


Do they have that separated out for Omicron as well? If so, it would give a real measure of "how effective is the original vaccine against the Omicron variant".

 

[nononsense]

Lower than I expected. Omicron, especially, was the one that everyone was going to catch, but in fact only about 11-12% of Americans caught it, according to this data. (A little higher than that, because it tailed into February, but that would be the bulk of it.)

I'm happy to put to rest that whole 'everybody is going to catch it' meme which did nothing but encourage people to stop taking basic precautions like masking and distancing.

 

[apoclypse]

The only time I got COVID was in January with Omicron and it was really random. Like I haven't left my house since COVID started but I got it from a delivery guy anyway. I was pissed to say the least as I was very careful.

 

[No one you know]

43% have had covid, 65% have been vaccinated, which means that some percentage has some measure of resistance to serious infection. And that is all I can say. You can't just add both figures and have it equal "herd immunity"

 

[kvndoom]

Lower than I expected. Omicron, especially, was the one that everyone was going to catch, but in fact only about 11-12% of Americans caught it, according to this data. (A little higher than that, because it tailed into February, but that would be the bulk of it.)

I'm happy to put to rest that whole 'everybody is going to catch it' meme which did nothing but encourage people to stop taking basic precautions like masking and distancing.

That means there's a lot of misery left in the tank.

 

[Calidore]

Does that number include an estimate of asymptomatic people like me? The only reason I know I had covid was a blood donation at Vitalant testing positive for antibodies (twice, both pre-vaccine).

 

[OrangeCream]

Lower than I expected. Omicron, especially, was the one that everyone was going to catch, but in fact only about 11-12% of Americans caught it, according to this data. (A little higher than that, because it tailed into February, but that would be the bulk of it.)

That’s exactly what I expected. We had data from last year showing roughly 10% of tests were positive, indicating 10% or so of the population had it prior to delta or omicron.

 

[OrangeCream]

The sad part is there is pretty much no reason for most of those cases to have ever occurred, except for the war on public health. I hate to think of what the long term costs of this are to society.

Seriously, adjust your apocalyptic tone. My household spent two years avoiding it with masks, dual shot vaccinations, plus the booster. Omicron hit us out of the blue with two out of three of us catching it. One mysteriously continued to test negative throughout despite close proximity in isolation. There was no war on public health that caused us to catch it. Last I checked, alpha, beta, delta, omicron originated outside of the US and far from your alleged war on public health here.

He isn’t wrong that there is a war on public health in many parts of the country though.

 

[Jackattak]

The sad part is there is pretty much no reason for most of those cases to have ever occurred, except for the war on public health. I hate to think of what the long term costs of this are to society.

Seriously, adjust your apocalyptic tone. My household spent two years avoiding it with masks, dual shot vaccinations, plus the booster. Omicron hit us out of the blue with two out of three of us catching it. One mysteriously continued to test negative throughout despite close proximity in isolation. There was no war on public health that caused us to catch it. Last I checked, alpha, beta, delta, omicron originated outside of the US and far from your alleged war on public health here.

He isn’t wrong that there is a war on public health in many parts of the country though.

Do us all a favor and don't feed it. Let it fester under its bridge. The only reason I know it's posting is because you quoted it.

 

[DarthSlack]

Does that number include an estimate of asymptomatic people like me? The only reason I know I had covid was a blood donation at Vitalant testing positive for antibodies (twice, both pre-vaccine).

As the article noted:

The program uses blood samples sent to commercial labs for non-COVID-19 related testing, such as routine medical screens.

So probably yes but they didn't specifically look for asymptomatic people, just a random sample of the population.

 

[JohnDeL]

I'd feel less awful about the number if we didn't know that people could get COVID-19 multiple times.

At least we know for sure that getting vaccinated lessens the severity and significantly lessens the chances of dying from it.

Get vaccinated! (And boosted!)

 

[zAmboni]

I would gladly submit a blood sample and pay for testing to find out if I was infected with SARS-CoV-2. (of course any results need be shielded from insurance agency prying eyes). I have been curious since I developed an irregular heartbeat (which occasionally leads to a-fib) near the beginning of the pandemic.

Was it old age or possibly long-COVID?

Any type of infection would have been an totally asymptomatic case. If I had been infected, knowing what variant would be a bonus so I would know if it was pre- or post- vaccination.

 

[Rick C.]

I never did. Taken a few tests to prove it to myself.

 

[lasertekk]

Nothing here either. I avoided it.

 

[Frank C.]

The sad part is there is pretty much no reason for most of those cases to have ever occurred, except for the war on public health. I hate to think of what the long term costs of this are to society.

Damn right it's a war on public health. BTW. I'm one of the ones who didn't get it either. I didn't screw around and take stupid chances.

 

[Hinchu]

Back of the napkin calculations on US Covid deaths.

US Population
329,500,000

US Covid Deaths
949,000

US Population who had Covid
140,000,000

% of death for someone who has had covid
0.68%

chance of death for someone who has had covid
1 in 148

% of death for US popuplation
0.29%

chance of death for US population
1 in 347

Road deaths in US per year (average)
37,323

Years of Pandemic
2

Road deaths during pandemic
74,646

% chance of death from cars
0.05%

Chance of death from cars
1 in 1876

Calculations with citations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

 

[bungalowbernard]

I'm actually kind of stunned more people haven't had it. This is definitely on the low end of what I would have guessed, though my guess wouldn't be worth the sticky note I wrote it on.

 

[ikjadoon]

For those who were positive and have the interest in contributing to long COVID research:

Last year, the NIH started the national $470 million RECOVER initiative. It will likely be the largest PASC / long-COVID study in the U.S. I believe volunteer research sign-ups have opened for adults; clinical trials will begin later.

I always think of the chickenpox at a young age -> shingles later in life timeline. There's so much that we can contribute to any post-pandemic scenario and long COVID is a key arena.

The world has done quite poorly with vaccine availability + equity (leading to massive variant surges) and most of us haven't been able to do much to stop that, but at with long COVID, many more of us can directly contribute to the solutions.

From Francis Collins, MD, PhD, the National Institutes of Health director:

"NIH deeply appreciates the contributions of patients who have not fully recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection and who have offered their experiences and insights.... We now ask the patient, medical, and scientific communities to come together to help us understand the long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection,"

//

For those looking for care now, there are Post-COVID Care Centers (PCCC) in pretty much every state; PCCC's are not an official designation, but independent multi-disciplinary units for long COVID relief now.

 

[Spankyman Supreme]

Call me skeptical. From pretty accurate early models (Youyang Gou) to more recent estimates from well-respected experts (Trevor Bedford, Eric Topol, Natalie Dean), one of the few constants within an often fractured field has been that the real number of cases *in the US* is roughly 3x the reported number--or more like 4x-5x with omicron. That would argue for more like 55-70% of the population having been infected. Anecdotally, I would guess half or more of the people I know have gotten Covid. Undoubtedly others have had asymptomatic cases. And this is a highly vaccinated cohort.

Also, not to impugn the CDC, but I seem to recall the same people announcing that 95% of cases in mid-December were omicron--only to walk that number back to 37% (!) a week later...

 

[LarryJoseph]

Anyway, the fact is, getting the jab does not equate to not getting COVID - too many break through infections prove this. The shots only reduce symptoms and thus lethality.

And yet it's still far more effective than a number of other vaccines. For example, the MMR vaccine is only 78% effective against the mumps. But here's the thing: your statement isn't insightful as no one has ever claimed any vaccine provides 100% protection from infection.

Every vaccine has a chance of breakout infections. This isn't anything new. What has helped prevent other diseases from being as bad as COVID-19 were near-universal vaccination rates for things like polio, measles; etc. which we don't have currently because of too mushheads refusing to get vaccinated.

 

[inomyabcs]

The sad part is there is pretty much no reason for most of those cases to have ever occurred, except for the war on public health. I hate to think of what the long term costs of this are to society.

First part of your first sentence was my first thought. I want to be more snarky and perjorative about it though... 99.99% of the 43% were preventable.

 

[cyberpenguin]

The only time I got COVID was in January with Omicron and it was really random. Like I haven't left my house since COVID started but I got it from a delivery guy anyway. I was pissed to say the least as I was very careful.

I represent that remark. Fortunately, vaccine + booster did what they were supposed to do, and while I was symptomatic, I didn't end up in the hospital.

 

[JohnDeL]

Back of the napkin calculations on US Covid deaths.

US Population
329,500,000

US Covid Deaths
949,000

US Population who had Covid
140,000,000

% of death for someone who has had covid
0.68%

chance of death for someone who has had covid
1 in 148

% of death for US popuplation
0.29%

chance of death for US population
1 in 347

Road deaths in US per year (average)
37,323

Years of Pandemic
2

Road deaths during pandemic
74,646

% chance of death from cars
0.05%

Chance of death from cars
1 in 1876

Calculations with citations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Comparing COVID to another disease would be far more appropriate.

According to the CDC, there are approximately 41,000,000 cases of influenza in a bad year, with 52,000 deaths. That gives influenza a mortality rate of (52,000/41,000,000)=0.13% and an infection rate of (41,000,000/329,500,000)=12.4%

Using your numbers, COVID-19 has a mortality rate of (949,000/140,000,000)=0.68%, which is five times that of influenza, and an infection rate of (140,000,000/329,500,000)= 42.5%, which is roughly three times that of influenza.

In other words, COVID-19 is one of the deadliest plagues we've faced in a long, long time.

 

[ikjadoon]

The state-by-state variance can be quite large:

Wisconsin: 56.1%
Oregon: 28.2%
Vermont: 17.8%

This really has been a pandemic of completely-different-experiences for so many; frankly the pandemic has exposed so many functioning & non-functioning governments.

Of all the things we expected a government to handle is the spread of infectious diseases. 140 million infected people is a tragic + angry place to be. I remember the first few weeks: "It could reach 1 million total cases!"

 

[ikjadoon]

Call me skeptical. From pretty accurate early models (Youyang Gou) to more recent estimates from well-respected experts (Trevor Bedford, Eric Topol, Natalie Dean), one of the few constants within an often fractured field has been that the real number of cases *in the US* is roughly 3x the reported number--or more like 4x-5x with omicron. That would argue for more like 55-70% of the population having been infected. Anecdotally, I would guess half or more of the people I know have gotten Covid. Undoubtedly others have had asymptomatic cases. And this is a highly vaccinated cohort.

Also, not to impugn the CDC, but I seem to recall the same people announcing that 95% of cases in mid-December were omicron--only to walk that number back to 37% (!) a week later...

Can't really belive anything coming from the CDC anymore, they are withholding data and numbers because according to them it's "not ready for primetime"! WTF???
It's sad how politicized this agency has gotten.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2022022 ... id-19-data

I think this data is still quite valid, but your point is right: politicization + bureaucracy has really undermined the C.D.C.'s most basic objectives. From the original article in the New York Times

Dr. Daniel Jernigan, the agency’s deputy director for public health science and surveillance said the pandemic exposed the fact that data systems at the C.D.C., and at the state levels, are outmoded and not up to handling large volumes of data. C.D.C. scientists are trying to modernize the systems, he said.

“The C.D.C. is a political organization as much as it is a public health organization,” said Samuel Scarpino, managing director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute. “The steps that it takes to get something like this released are often well outside of the control of many of the scientists that work at the C.D.C.”

There's no doubt that the C.D.C. has failed in serious ways: so what institutional reforms are being done?

“Tell the truth, present the data,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccine expert and adviser to the Food and Drug Administration. “I have to believe that there is a way to explain these things so people can understand it.”

Our health institutions, as a whole, need significant reform so that they can actually deal with fast-moving health crises. How can the C.D.C. not have the best experts and the best strategies on science communication? How can that be an excuse of withholding data?

 

[Photon_plumber]

And think of all the avoidable deaths.

 

[Photon_plumber]

In other words, COVID-19 is one of the deadliest plagues we've faced in a long, long time.

No kidding.

 

[Veritas super omens]

Back of the napkin calculations on US Covid deaths.

US Population
329,500,000

US Covid Deaths
949,000

US Population who had Covid
140,000,000

% of death for someone who has had covid
0.68%

chance of death for someone who has had covid
1 in 148

% of death for US popuplation
0.29%

chance of death for US population
1 in 347

Road deaths in US per year (average)
37,323

Years of Pandemic
2

Road deaths during pandemic
74,646

% chance of death from cars
0.05%

Chance of death from cars
1 in 1876

Calculations with citations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Is there a way to get vaccinated against car crash deaths? It would be great if we could reduce our risk of auto-crash death by 53 times /s

 

[lost_gweedo]

Does that number include an estimate of asymptomatic people like me? The only reason I know I had covid was a blood donation at Vitalant testing positive for antibodies (twice, both pre-vaccine).

As the article noted:

The program uses blood samples sent to commercial labs for non-COVID-19 related testing, such as routine medical screens.

So probably yes but they didn't specifically look for asymptomatic people, just a random sample of the population.

I would think that the dampening of routine medical visits as well as the testing requirements prior to procedures would skew the % positive downward a bit. As well as the period not extending past January.

 

[LarryJoseph]

Our health institutions, as a whole, need significant reform so that they can actually deal with fast-moving health crises. How can the C.D.C. not have the best experts and the best strategies on science communication? How can that be an excuse of withholding data?

Because we had an administration that spent four years attempting to actively undermine and politicize government agencies like the CDC. Contrast to the how the ebola crisis was handled under the Obama administration where there were only eleven confirmed cases and two deaths in the US. Even the swine flu pandemic in 2009 had vastly fewer cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

[Oldmanalex]

I finally got Omicron about 4 weeks ago. The timing shows it was from my brother, who is the family hermit. Anyone would have bet on the other way round, as he is virtually never around anyone but us. Nobody else in the house got it, and we were all fully vaccinated. Neither of us was more than mildly ill, and with no typical "Omicron" symptoms, and if some free government test kits had not turned up in the mail, and I had not gotten curious, we would have never known. And if I had not reported into my highly efficient health system, who then told the county medical officer, I would not even be a statistic.