Canadian political thread

[SteveS]

I can't believe that these people's votes are worth as much as those who are normally functioning humans.

Actually they're worth more. Rural (predominantly conservative) ridings are more heavily represented.

On averae, a vote in PEI is worth ~3x one in Quebec. The most populated riding has ~5x the number of electors as the least populated:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populatio ... al_ridings

Electoral reform can't come soon enough.

 

[SteveS]

I think the two-party system in the US is possibly the most fundamental thing wrong with the country, and a FPTP system will always gravitate to having only two viable parties. I was also pissed off at Trudeau going back on his promise to ditch FPTP but fortunately for him, my vote has exactly zero effect on elections (I live in Alberta).

 

[SteveS]

As much as minority governments are typically fragile and short-lived, I think the Liberals can manage this fairly well if they don't make major mistakes. The Bloc, the NDP and the Greens are all more progressive than the Liberals, so the Liberals should be able to get support for any of their more progressive bills from these parties, and to hell with what the Conservatives think; for progressive issues, the Liberals can govern like they have a majority. As for issues like pipelines, the Liberals can look for support from the Conservatives - I can't imagine the Conservatives voting against the pipelines they want so desperately - and to hell with what the Greens, the NDP and the Bloc think. So again, the Liberals can govern like they have a majority on issues where they can get support from the Conservatives. The only constraint for the Liberals will be surrounding issues where they don't overlap significantly with the progressive parties or the Conservatives, and I can't even think of one of these issues right now. But they probably exist, and the Liberals will have to just leave those on the back burner until they can regain a majority.

On the progressive side I agree. However, I can see the Cons just being obstructionist even on issues that they're ostensibly in favour of. Particularly because another election would probably favour them.

 

[SteveS]

The Wexit idea is so far-fetched it's not even worth discussing seriously. Only a few of the most ignorant wing nuts actually want this.

The typical Conservative voter in Alberta doesn't even know why or what they're voting for; it's simply ingrained in them to hate anyone named Trudeau. For example, the Conservative Party did not even have a platform for most the campaign, yet the majority's mind is made up to vote for whatever it might be.

When I ask people which of Trudeau's policies specifically they disagree with, they have no answer. It's completely irrational. They simply hate on the Liberals because it's the social norm around here to do so. It was particularly bad during Notley's tenure. People *hated* her but couldn't actually point to anything she did that they disagreed with.

It's no longer a political or economic problem; it's a cultural one, and I don't know how you fix it. It feels like the same willful ignorance as Trump supporters (with a bit less racism).

 

[SteveS]

fairvote.ca publishes some tidbits like that, although I can't seem to find consolidated statistics on their website:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... tn__=EHH-R

See also wastedvotes.ca, but it hasn't been updated for 2019.
http://wastedvotes.ca/?q=node/2/Federal/LATEST/0/TOP

 

[SteveS]

The scary part with this is that a good part of that base think Kenney has been too far to the left, and would likely push for someone even further to the right.

Best case scenario - these people split the right-wing vote between the UCP and another incarnation of the crazy fringe party. NDP get a majority, and Notley gets serious about electoral reform.

 

[SteveS]

There is an affordability problem but the notion that you can't get a decent place in a nice city for less than $2M is silly. If you're looking at the insane hot spots like Vancouver or Toronto, the average price is ~$1M so you're talking double the average in the craziest markets. There are nice cities where the average price is half that.

I feel like the proposed new home buyer's plan just pours more money in the market and aggravates the problem. I am also not convinced it's remotely equitable either.

 

[SteveS]

Everyone will get pharmacare and dental care....

Not everyone. The programs do not appear to be universal (they have income caps) and most importantly introduce copays. Just like only Nixon could go to China, only the Liberals and NDP can introduce copays on health-related programs.

I get to pay your dental care, but I get no advantage myself from doing so.
And why should I be onboard with this?

I'm already paying for peoples child care, schooling, etc. I haven't seen a proper raise in years. Inflation is killing me, and now you want to take more from me.

There's a large segment of the population in the same position as me. They aren't happy right now.

Would you be on board if it was cheaper in the long run?

 

[SteveS]

41% of people who voted = 27% of eligible voters

 

[SteveS]

Also as an aside, the NDP also cut tens of millions from the wildfire budget when they were in government. Not surprised Press Progress never found the time to report on that back in the day.

While that is true, I don't think that link says what you think it says.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...rta-s-firefighting-budget-explained-1.6838994

Although firefighting money comes from the emergency budget, it seems likely that cutting money from the wildfire budget would impact prevention and preparedness measures. Hard to find info on which aspects and programs are actually impacted by funding.

 

[SteveS]

Indeed. The UCP were critical of NDP cuts but rather than fix anything in the last 5 years, they're just cut deeper.

 

[SteveS]

From 1990-2019, 56% of Alberta wildfires are human-caused, more than lightning in every year of the study. Of human-caused fires, over half are classified as "recreational and residential". So aggravating that we can't just not start fires

https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/5fa...-spring-2019-wildfire-review-final-report.pdf

 

[SteveS]

Well, here in Alberta Smith has pulled provincial funding for Calgary's Green Line LRT project, leaving the city on the hook for $870 million in contract termination/cancellation fees. It mostly seems to be an attempt to make the NDP's Nenshi look bad as the project originated under him when he was Calgary's mayor, and he's now their biggest threat in the next election.

That is on top of the $1.3 billion already spent by the city. I believe they may actually be trying to bankrupt us in order to punish NDP voters and discredit Nenshi.

 

[SteveS]

Not sure what the rules are for Alberta, but municipalities exist in Ontario at the whim of the province. So really, like Ford is potentially doing, he can blanket govern without city governments.

In Alberta they are actively legislating themselves even more power over municipalities. They also deny municipalities hundreds of millions in federal assistance because they don't want to be seen cooperating with Trudeau.

We also still have legislation coming down the pipe:

• Anti-trans policies
• Anti-sex ed
• Anti-vax
• Stronger gun rights
• Fees to register EVs
• Further health care privatization

There are many more party resolutions (eg. anti-abortion) that I hope are unpalatable enough to leave off the table but at this point nothing would surprise me. And of course they'll do anything they can do to sabotage a green energy transition. I have hope for Nenshi with the NDP but this is only the first year of this government and a lot more damage will be done.

 

[SteveS]

The dumb thing is that it's going to do the complete opposite of discrediting Nenshi. And given 1200 votes in Calgary was the difference between winning and losing the last election, Smith's handlers are playing with fire.

I would hope so but I'm not so sure. I think it's likely they can pin it all on Nenshi, Mayor Gondek and council. The right wing controls most of the media and the province largely controls the narrative because the city can't speak out too much against the province. They have to keep coming back to the table with hat in hand because Smith has a thousand other ways she can punish us. Calgary should be going to war over this but I was actually surprised to hear this much criticism from Mayor Gondek:

'Crushed by a government only interested in power': Mayor blasts province on Green Line halt

This seems to have only been picked up by CBC. Calgary Herald headlines for comparison:
Smith UCP to city council, play ball on Green Line or it's dead
Councillor tells Gondek, others to stop their Green Line whining
Danielle Smith tells Gondek a Green Line boondoggle is a no-go

 

[SteveS]

Enough said.

Board of directors for anything appointed by the government (provincially or federally) are often/routinely dismissed at some point with "no notice".

Sometimes they are expected, transition of political parties after elections, but even then they are often months later and notice isn't necessarily given.

Is annoying as fuck, and absolutely relevant as to the type of people put to replace such a board, but it is rather routine.

Ambachtsheer is not one of those dismissed. He is a 3rd party analyst who is saying the action is "unique" and "Soviet style", not routine.

"defying a long-held principle that funds should be free of political interference"

 

[SteveS]

Um, I didn't comment on, let alone deny any of those things. You seemed to be under the impression that Ambachtsheer was on the AIMCo board. That is not correct.

 

[SteveS]

Liberal minority with NDP holding the balance of power was the best realistic outcome in my mind. I don't have any issues with Singh but I'm glad he is resigning and hope the NDP can find someone more effective/inspiring.

I'll be wishing for electoral reform every single day. I feel like we dodged a bullet for one more cycle.

 

[SteveS]

As always, FPTP makes interpreting the election an exercise in futility; there's no way of knowing how many votes cast for either of the two main parties were votes against the other main party. But electoral reform is so far down the list of priorities now that it's not even a point of discussion. If we can survive the dumpster fire Trump is making of the global economy, and if we can survive the rise of fascism here and elsewhere around the globe, and if the climate crisis doesn't get worse than we expect faster than we expect (narrator: it will), then we still have things like healthcare, housing, income inequality, crime etc. that are going to take precedence over any discussion of electoral reform. I don't think we're going to be fixing our fucked up voting system in my lifetime.

I see electoral reform as the best way of combating all of those things. Unfortunately I think you're right in that it's a long-term view which nobody is going to take while their hair is on fire.

 

[SteveS]

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Since you believe this, you obviously have have examples. Produce them.

The "Fuck Trudeau" crowd never seem to be able to name a specific federal policy that they disagree with since the NEP, and most couldn't even name that. The UCP manufacture conflict and scare their voters into line with federal boogeymen.

Premier vows to protect Alberta against 'future hostile acts' from Ottawa after Liberal victory

 

[SteveS]

Unfortunately if they're fleeing Trump, they're probably not foolish enough to come to Alberta.

 

[SteveS]

I mean, I wouldn't be opposed for them to come here. Get them Canadian citizenship, let them vote, and maybe we can get Smith out of power, if they are fleeing Trump, they ain't gonna be voting for her.

I dunno, I'd rather live anywhere in Alberta than anywhere in the US.

Of course I'd love to have them here. But if you had your choice of more progressive places to move to, why would you choose Alberta

 

[SteveS]

Thank Jeebus we still have rule of law here

Alberta judge grants temporary injunction blocking a transgender health-care bill

Glad to see Nenshi calling this out for what it is

"The court has determined what we already knew, that this ban could cause irreparable harm to gender diverse young Albertans," Nenshi said.

"This was never about doing the right thing: it was always about demonizing vulnerable kids to boost Danielle Smith's political fortunes."

 

[SteveS]

I mean, in a reasonable world there wouldn't be an anti-trans health-care bill on the table, so I get the dissonance. Or if you're saying that the media should label it as anti-trans, I agree.

 

[SteveS]

I don't pretend to understand these games at all, but I take some comfort in believing that Carney is infinitely more intelligent than Trump and genuinely has the nation's interests in mind.

 

[SteveS]

Edmonton school board is removing and banning;

Brave New World
Handmaids tale
and others....

https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/vid...s-to-be-removed-from-edmonton-public-schools/

I remember reading Brave New world in grade school.

Danielle Smith is not happy with the list of banned books

However, it's not clear if she feels the ban went too far, not far enough, or wasn't specific enough in targeting evil LGBTQ content.

 

[SteveS]

I am fully behind any union striking against Danielle Smith's shit-show of a government. Looks like teachers are next.

 

[SteveS]

Cautiously optimistic that something is finally going to stick to Smith.

 

[SteveS]

The UCP are declining to provide funds to Elections Alberta which are required for EA to process recall petitions filed against UCP members. It hasn't been a good couple of weeks for democracy here in Alberta.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...-elections-alberta-funding-mlas-ucp-9.6966903

The irony on the cake is that the recall process was legislated by the UCP themselves and now it's biting them in the ass. Smith says the recall process isn't being used in good faith.

 

[SteveS]

Today in "Alberta Fucking Sucks", we have leaked draft legislation for a two-tiered private/public healthcare overhaul.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-health-care-privatization-draft-legislation/

And a bonus invocation of the notwithstanding clause for the second time in three weeks. This time to head off legal challenges to their anti-trans bills which prevent kids from receiving gender-affirming healthcare, among other things.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-government-notwithstanding-clause-bills-9.6983786

This constant stream of bullshit is so infuriating. An election can't come soon enough, but I fear this province is dumb enough to keep electing a government that enjoys trampling their rights.

 

[SteveS]

This one feels even more egregious as it's bill after the fact to retroactively apply Section 33 to bills already passed. I think there's a good chance the courts will take this up. "No take backsies for rules you already made is wrong."

I'm no expert in these matters, but that just seems like a technicality? Is there anything preventing them from creating any new legislation that they want and applying the NWS clause?

 

[SteveS]

The problem with nuclear is the uncompetitive capital cost, but if Canada's going to do nuclear at all I think the ones Ontario is trying to build (BWRX-300) are a better choice than CANDU. There's no reason to go forward with a bespoke reactor type specific to Canada if we're not going to be building a bunch of them and there's no significant export market. We've been through this with the ACR, there's just no interest internationally.

But realistically nuclear's never going to get there. New geothermal technology leverages the existing petroleum industry's supply chain and logistics with broadly similar characteristics as a source of generation, except the size of individual units is a much better fit for the grid's needs.

I used to be a nuclear power proponent, but now it seems that solar and wind are simply more economical.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainabil...builds-new-gas-plants-get-pricier-2025-06-16/

Basically if you're building a new generation plant from scratch, solar and wind are cheaper and quicker to deploy than fossil fuel plants. I'm hopeful that this means market forces will take over and we'll soon see progress like we're seeing in China.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysi...-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/

 

[SteveS]

I'd like to think it's actually because of some shady global conspiracy, but really, most people are just fucking dumb, and elections turn into popularity contests.

There's a reason why benevolent dictatorships are the best form of government, and why they don't last.

First-past-the-post has a lot to do with it. It always reverts to having only two viable parties and polarized politics.

I saw some interesting stuff about Finland (which uses proportional representation). Their 2019 government was a coalition of 5 parties, all led by women mostly under 40. We can only dream of that level of collaboration.

 

[SteveS]

Maybe we should do democracy poutine.

I feel like a party that wants to bring about electoral reform is one that actually has a modicum of genuine interest in the good of the country.

 

[SteveS]

I just don't see any way we're going to get that unless a perennial opposition party manages to get a majority. The Conservatives and Liberals, arguably the Bloc too, benefit way more from first past the post than pretty much any other style election.

I mean, just look at Trudeau Jr's promise to do it; their preferred version (that would have primarily benefitted the Libs over the others) was rejected by the other parties, and they dropped it like a rock.

Even Erin O'Toole has expressed regret at opposing Trudeau's electoral reform. Thanks for your hind-sight guys
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-leaving-politics-social-media-1.6877453

But yeah, Carney has expressed no interest, the CPC are crazy, and the NDP are adrift. So I'm not holding my breath.

 

[SteveS]

I can't understand why those pro-separatists are so eager to become another Puerto Rico.

They'll never become a state, the US will treat them like a backwoods northern territory only good for cheaper crude oil. No benefits, only obligations.

There are so many more even dumberer reasons to be pro-separation. I'm thinking more and more about getting the hell out of Alberta.

 

[SteveS]

Naked authoritarianism. I can't believe anyone doesn't see these tactics taken directly from the Republican playbook. I also can't believe that "small government" conservatives actually support this government. I guess people just aren't paying attention and/or the media isn't calling out this shit for what it is.

 

[SteveS]

I think part of the problem with Alberta as well is that we currently don't really have a "centrist" party. The provincial Liberal party (no affiliation with the federal Liberal party) has had it pretty rough the past few elections and are basically a non-player right now. So it is kinda a battle between left and right, with not as much shifting between them. So you won't get as much stuff like what happened with the federal one where some of the people fed up with the federal Conservatives shifted a bit left, it is a bigger jump for them to go from Tory to NDP.

The NDP is a centrist party. Perhaps even moreso with Nenshi as leader.

 

[SteveS]

I would rather have an actual left-wing party so the average person could recognize moderates when they see them.

 

[SteveS]

To me, this is the scariest thing in Canadian politics I have seen in a long time:
UCP move reveals potential for a Smith-friendly electoral map

The UCP have rejected the recommendations of the Electoral Boundaries Commission and created a committee of UCP members to re-draw electoral boundaries in their favour. Analysts estimate the new gerrymandered map would likely swing 9 additional seats to the UCP. We're going full-tilt into US Republicanism here. I had hope that enough Albertans would be fed up with Smith's insanity in the next election but if this goes through, it could be game over. I can't believe the government even has this power. I've been watching the US system crumble under the control of bad actors but for some reason I assumed we had better safeguards here