Can our stockpiles of Tamiflu protect against a bird flu pandemic?
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ColdWetDog
Ars Legatus Legionis
There is a bit more on the development front than implied in TFA. It still is a hard problem with poor incentives for actual drug manufacture. The feds (and other health research agencies in the world, we aren't the only people that can do research) should be working on some additional pre clinical prospects.
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RickRoyLeonPrisZhoraRacha
Ars Scholae Palatinae
Only if your gov't will subsidize it then, no issue. But have some idiot like #45 in office, ... only if he gets to pick the pharma and get kickback-credits for his pals...
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"...scientists asserted that the drug’s manufacturer, Roche, had withheld unfavorable data."
What, a pharmaceutical company only publishing favorable data!!! The next thing we will find out is that some drugs are only marginally better than placebos.
As with all medications, vaccinations, and supplements, the devil is in the details. Antibiotics can be real life savers; I can personally attest to that. Vaccines are a modern miracle. I'm old. I would have liked to have not gotten chicken pox, measles, etc. So glad to have mostly missed influenza and totally missed COVID-19. Good balanced nutrition with needed vitamins and minerals can promote health and longevity. (No scurvy)
However, pharmaceutical companies have a history of over promoting and overcharging for questionable "cures".
What, a pharmaceutical company only publishing favorable data!!! The next thing we will find out is that some drugs are only marginally better than placebos.
As with all medications, vaccinations, and supplements, the devil is in the details. Antibiotics can be real life savers; I can personally attest to that. Vaccines are a modern miracle. I'm old. I would have liked to have not gotten chicken pox, measles, etc. So glad to have mostly missed influenza and totally missed COVID-19. Good balanced nutrition with needed vitamins and minerals can promote health and longevity. (No scurvy)
However, pharmaceutical companies have a history of over promoting and overcharging for questionable "cures".
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Not only that but you'll have tons of doctors giving out Z-paks (antibiotics) for some insane reason instead of giving out the antiviral.
Most people dying from covid-19 right now would not have died if they had been properly treated with available antivirals instead of doctors taking a 'wait and see' or 'here's an antibiotic and zync' approach.
As for Tamiflu I fear people still haven't learned the lesson that antivirals work best when given as early as possible when the virus is still replicating. If someone is in the hospital because their immune system is destroying their lungs it's already too late for an antiviral.
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Remember: if you take Covid vaccines and other vaccines but stay away from the flu vaccine for any reason other than being allergic: you are an anti-vaxxer.
If you don't get your yearly flu shot when you're able, you're a piece of shit. No exceptions. No "I don't get the flu." No "it's not that bad."
Any one of us who have in the past not been vaccinated for influenza could have unknowingly carried the disease to a vulnerable person and killed them. Me included.
So get your fucking flu shot. I guarantee literally EVERY PHARMACY anywhere you go will have walkins available. Even the old timey kitschy pharmacies in rural areas advertise free flu shots. No. Excuses. For. Anybody.
If you don't get your yearly flu shot when you're able, you're a piece of shit. No exceptions. No "I don't get the flu." No "it's not that bad."
Any one of us who have in the past not been vaccinated for influenza could have unknowingly carried the disease to a vulnerable person and killed them. Me included.
So get your fucking flu shot. I guarantee literally EVERY PHARMACY anywhere you go will have walkins available. Even the old timey kitschy pharmacies in rural areas advertise free flu shots. No. Excuses. For. Anybody.
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Glad that we have continuing research and peer review for such treatments, especially as we look ahead to another potential pandemic.
Please get your flu and covid vaccinations, folks. Their efficacy is sound. Mask up during cold and flu season, for yours and my loved ones.
Please get your flu and covid vaccinations, folks. Their efficacy is sound. Mask up during cold and flu season, for yours and my loved ones.
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ooooh, I misread it as stockpiles of Tiramisu which definitely wouldn't protect against any flu
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One of the bright spots coming out of COVID was a massive wave of public and private funding and research initiatives to find candidate treatments for future pandemics. For example, Project READDI screens compound libaries against many families of viruses with potential for human infection and transmission. Basically an attempt to systematize the lucky accidents we had with COVID treatments like molnupiravir, paxlovid, remdesivir, etc. which came out of unsuccessful efforts to develop antivirals for other diseases. Rather than hope for that in the future, why not build a collection of compounds with interesting antiviral activity?
Unfortunately, interest and funding has also come crashing down (I know several people working with READDI, and many projects are being scaled back or cut entirely). There seems to be an attitude among funders that vaccines were what delivered us from COVID, rather than antivirals which admittedly had rather modest benefits.
So yeah there's a fair amount of resarch going on in academia, but nowhere near enough to actually develop clinically effective antivirals. The incentives just aren't there to keep the interests of pharma or biotech and the capital markets that fund them.
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Yes! Definitely get seasonal flu shots. I had a really bad case of the flu about 20 years ago. I don't ever want to be that sick again! In and out of consciousness for 5 or 6 days. I'm pretty sure I had a NDE also. Not sure if it was that, or just a very vivid fever induced dream. It scared me so bad, I never told my wife about it for at least 5 years. She really took care of me. Kept me hydrated. I had passed out in the bathroom when i first got sick. So she wouldn't even let me get out of bed to go pee. Made me use a bed pan. So, now I get them every year. You too!
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I'd be interested to hear more about how these stockpiles work. How long do the drugs stay good for? Does the govt buy a fresh batch of these drugs every year? Is there some kind of better storage to make them last longer?
Seems like given how medicine expires over time, there'd be a constant need to refresh, and therefore a constant buyer (the govt) of these drugs for the companies involved. But that isn't enough to make them profitable to research new ones?
Seems like given how medicine expires over time, there'd be a constant need to refresh, and therefore a constant buyer (the govt) of these drugs for the companies involved. But that isn't enough to make them profitable to research new ones?
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As was pointed out in the article, not really. Antivirals can reduce symptoms, but they DON'T KILL THE VIRUSES. What they do is let the body mobilize more of its immune defenses while the ability of the virus to replicate is hampered by the antiviral. If you're immunocompromised, that's not going to help much.
It's very disturbing that the government takes this position instead of being more proactive in getting immunizations out there. The key to defeating a virus is to not get exposed to it. But it seems likely that an H5N1 outbreak will happen in the relatively near future. If vaccination stocks aren't up to par, they should be made so.
COVID was always less than 3% fatal (and some sources cite 1%-2%, since a significant share of folks who had it and never knew it). H5N1 mortality rates are typically thought to be higher (it's not a settled science for humans), with the current calculation (which has huge flaws in how it was calculated) being 52% fatal.
So even assuming H5N1 is not as fatal as the current estimates, it's still very likely to be far worse than COVID was. And COVID put our entire health care industry on its knees. We are literally less prepared for a similar, or worse, outbreak than we were before (largely because so many front-line workers left the field under the strain of keeping up with COVID). Toss in so many delusional anti-vaxxers out there (who will be the first to suffer massive casualties, so, bonus for the human race!) and the issue multiplies for all of us, since herd immunity is what prevents the spread.
Without herd immunity, a vaccination only gives you a better chance of surviving an close encounter with a deadly virus. It does not guarantee it.
And just to keep things light and inconsequential, keep in mind that "Disease X" still exists. COVID was only ONE of them. There will be others. And H5N1 may be on-deck to fulfill that role for the middle of the 2020's.
On the bright side, if we don't irradiate the earth with the fall of civilization during the chaos of the Bird Flu Apocalypse, should H5N1 reduce the world's population by half across the globe, then our energy use should be cut 50% or more, too, and that will be good for the environment, reduce population pressure, ease resource scarcity and really cut back on reasons to go to war in the first place.
So it's not ALL bad... * sighs *
It's been said we have too many humans for the planet to sustain. And nature seems to always find a way to balance that spreadsheet. Maybe H5N1 is the accountant mother nature finally called in when COVID failed to do the job right?
I need my morning tea..
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I'm going to take exception to this. Walk ins are "available" to those with no schedule and time to piss away - I've tried multiple chain pharmacies, local independent pharmacies, etc. to get my COVID boosters and seasonal flu vaccines and it's always taken at least an hour. Doesn't seem to matter what time either - early morning or evening gets the before/after work rush, and mid-day either hits the senior errand rush or the afternoon lunch break.
It needs to be even easier than it currently is. Universities, hospitals, and some big employers just set up a table somewhere everyone has to walk past anyways, whenever I've seen something like this I've taken advantage of it. It should be this easy for everyone - set up a tent in front of every grocery store!
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ColdWetDog
Ars Legatus Legionis
That works if you can set up a mass vaccination program - like with COVID. But for single patient injections you 1) need to find the person to do it 2) need to put you and that person in a room 3) do the paperwork - which can be involved since it typically requires the operator to do something in the company's system and do the government form (which of course will be different) 4) pull the drug, check it and draw it and 5) administer it.
Just takes time.
I got my COVID shot a couple of weeks ago at a local food store in about 20 minutes. About as fast as you're going to get.
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It's always COVID season. Masking is a good idea in any crowd.
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nsomniture
Seniorius Lurkius
Human antivirals are used indiscriminately in swine feed in some Asian countries. Stockpiles of them might turn out to be useless when they're actually needed.
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Agreed. My similar experiences...
Multiple attempts at getting a walk in flu vaccination have ended badly at different locations over recent years. I get this “you mean someone really just walked in and wants us to give them a shot?” look combined with lots of head turning as to which person will have to stop what they are doing and take time to do WAY more paperwork that needs to be done. The paperwork alone and stack of forms they handed me were complete overkill and reeked of a data grab. Why in the hell do I need to sign up for a stupid “rewards card” just to get a vaccination? The last time I tried I gave up and walked out when they insisted I give them an email address or cell phone number (home phone was NOT acceptable!). So let's say an 85 year old low income person walks in to get a flu shot, will they be turned down because they do not have an email address? Ridiculous.
For years I got yearly flu shots due to the ease of it all. Someone from a 3rd party health group or on site emergency dept would setup a table in the lobby like you said. You walk up, drop $5-10 bucks, write down your name, roll up your sleeve, and boom you are done. Less than 5 minutes and both parties are happy.
Fast forward to about 6 years ago and that all went to crap. Now “due to insurance reasons” we were told they were no longer allowed to do that and employees had to make appointments with a clinic that I do not attend. Those who show up must give an entire patient intake even though they just want the flu shot. Tons of questions and long term family history were asked that I am not comfortable providing to a clinic I was ushered into by my employer. Not to mention the huge amount of time sink difference. Needless to say very few people around work get flu shots anymore compared to before this change. If they do it just happens to be when they go into their own doctor for some other reason. I would guess a 75% vaccinated to 20% drop (at least around here).
The real kicker is tables are still setup on site for non-employees to come to and get flu shots, but employees are not allowed!
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OK, and? The only reasonable followup is "and this is why we must increase spending on global public health, poverty reduction and environmental protection, and this is my credible plan for raising taxes in high income nations to pay for it, thank you for coming to my TED talk." Otherwise your little aside is just thinly veiled racism about dirty foreigners.
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Well sure. I didn't mean to suggest it literally means you can do it in 5 minutes everywhere you go. Only that availability is insanely good, even in areas with less infrastructure.
And if it wasn't obvious, of course I'm excluding people with medical reasons or those who literally cannot access them. If you're disabled and can't drive and can't get anyone to take you, obviously you're not an asshole.
But those kinds of people are exactly why the rest of us, who ARE able, need to step the fuck up. Herd immunity protects the people who cannot help themselves and the rest of us have a responsibility to be vaccinated. This is not an optional, extra nice thing you do for someone when it's not needed. It is not holding a door open. It should be the bare minimum of being a functional member of society.
If you disagree, ask yourself real long and hard why the fuck that is. Why the fuck someone telling you to be a considerate adult, gets you upset.
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My disagreement has more to do with you not being able to construct a solid argument without cursing. It's counter-productive to throw around that kind of language when you expect people to hear your concerns and maybe sway their world view enough to take action. It's obvious that you can throw around an emotionally charged argument, but that never convinces anyone.
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I was that guy, when I was a kid I had a hell of a reaction to the Flu vaccine, but that was in the 80's... (Yes, I'm old) When my doctor asked if I had a flu shot, I said no, because of my bad reaction he questioned my intelligence. The flu vaccines of modern times are so much less reactive then the old ones, so he gave it to me with the Benadryl at the ready, and no reaction at all. So if it's been many years since you had it, I would check with your doctor, I had no idea the new versions are so much less reactive for people with allergies...
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I agree h5n1 isn't being taken seriously enough, but fwiw the problem with covid wasn't JUST the death rate, it also was one of the most virulent diseases seen ever, early on it was slightly higher spread rate than seasonal flu, but before the vaccines hit we had an r0 that was like 5-7 vs 1.2 for the flu. And because of how the math works that isn't 5-7 times as many infections, it's orders of magnitudes more. COVID had a higher death and serious rate for sure, but if it's r0 had been flu level we might have smothered it in the cradle with masking and lockdowns just like SARS 1 and mers. This matters not only to the total infections, but also how many got infected before vaccines hit and how hard hospitals got hit. Spread the same death rate over 10x the time and the strain isn't there.
Last I saw current COVID strains are the second most infectious disease in existence behind only measles with an r0 in the mid teens
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There is a lot of paperwork, too. We got ours on Saturday. Scheduled our appts. Showed up on time. It took about 15 minutes for someone to do the paperwork even though we had filled out all of the questionnaires online. Then another 15 minutes waiting for someone to be ready to give the shot. Then about 2 minutes for the actual process from walking into the room to walking out.
One big problem is that the health insurance companies are paying for it so you have to have your insurance registered and they have to authorize it. I’m sure that there are protocols for someone without insurance but that would not be the first stage of the process. This makes it much harder to do the just show up for a shot kind of mass injection event.
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If acutely ill, even the most avian influenza-denying patient will accept treatment. The issue is that the outbreak would likely occur in settings far from the hospital infrastructure necessary to treat masses of people. We're in a boy-cry-wolf situation with a decade+ avian influenza warnings but minimal fecal and respiratory hygiene response in the industrial livestock settings. At some point the wolf may appear and then it gets ugly fast.
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Wholeheartedly agree. With the frequency of intercontinental travel and the northern and southern hemispheres having their cold and flu seasons at opposite ends of the calendar, we are never far from the next spike. Do your part!
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You have a problem with an hour? If you can't wait, then make an appointment. 30 minutes to an hour is my experience getting ANY vaccine as a walk in. Yes, having businesses doing it for their employees would be nice, but that is NOT the norm, though it probably should be.
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The length of time for vaccination at a pharmacy discussed here doesn’t at all correlate with my experiences. For the flu shot, there‘s a one-page list of checkboxes and a signature required. The COVID form is slightly longer, but not much.
It seems worth noting that a pharmacy, even the big ones, typically only have one person giving shots at any given time. That person’s workload is going to vary from one pharmacy to the next. Their sense of prioritization will also vary.
As far as the COVID shots, the vials have to be refrigerated and warmed before injection. Even if that’s a quick process, it still an extra step. Even if you fill out the forms online, the vial won’t be warmed until the recipient is actually present.
All that said, an hour wait is more than double the length of time I’ve ever experienced. If you’re experiencing hour delays, then I would go elsewhere next time.
It seems worth noting that a pharmacy, even the big ones, typically only have one person giving shots at any given time. That person’s workload is going to vary from one pharmacy to the next. Their sense of prioritization will also vary.
As far as the COVID shots, the vials have to be refrigerated and warmed before injection. Even if that’s a quick process, it still an extra step. Even if you fill out the forms online, the vial won’t be warmed until the recipient is actually present.
All that said, an hour wait is more than double the length of time I’ve ever experienced. If you’re experiencing hour delays, then I would go elsewhere next time.
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I thought TamiFlu was what people stockpiled to own the libs by refusing the flu shot.
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From a public health perspective in toto, even if Tamiflu only helps a little bit, it could be a meaningful benefit. But I mean that in the sense of, for example, if it reduces case mortality from 52% to 51% in a worldwide pandemic, that’s a lot of lives saved. However, that’s still waaaaayyyy more lives lost, so let’s try to avoid that being the best we can say about our public health response to an avian flu pandemic. Please?
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Tamiflu only shortens symptoms by half a day. It doesn't have any impact risk for hospitalization.
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Death rate… where is the part in your post about death rate? Oh… it isn’t there.
You’ve cherry picked a couple data points. To prove what?
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Yes I have a problem with an hour for a walk in appointment, and the last few times I got a shot at a pharmacy it was even longer than that. My last COVID and flu shot at CVS took an hour and 20 minutes, with a scheduled appointment.
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The US just needs a state-owned drug company that picks up the topics pharma won't. Never happen, but it's the obvious solution.
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