<s>Quiet down Dan: Sam Altman & Co. are busy amplifying the hype! You don't want anyone questioning the legitimacy of their claims of being on the very verge of "AGI", or challenging the applicability of our shiny new Artificial Intelligence overlords/tools (one or the other, never both at the same time!) to professional, commercial programming problems. Altman totally needs 7 trillion dollars to help us beat China/ DeepSeek & Alibaba & Baidu in the race to the end of the rainbow, the next horizon of AI/ML consciousness!!! Tech workers' salary demands were getting far too expensive especially in San Francisco, and after California rumbled the big tech firms' secret non-compete agreements we totally need this new vaporware, rumor mill, and mass layoffs to bring those overgrown office workers down to Terra Firma. Don't pay any attention to our previous predictions that 90% of all workers were bound to be made redundant by Artificial Intelligence already 18 months ago (or our repeated, loud, spooky warnings that the little people don't know what's coming so that everyone should listen ever more carefully to us, and incline their ears to our reading of the tea leaves), we pinky swear we're still on the very verge of FSD AGI, with just a little bit further to go…</s>
Seriously, what's the difference between using religion as a way to control the masses in the 1600s, vs. the Tech Bros/ false prophets of technology frightening everyone with tales of impending doom (vs. utopia if only we follow their prescriptions) to seize control of the lion's share of available capital?
Regarding corporate CTOs who are confidently predicting that 95% of code will be written by LLMs within months (and that AI "agents" won't merely be assisting real software engineers to work faster when creating lines/ blocks/ files/ modules of boilerplate or interface code); all we need to ask is: what would happen to those CTOs if they disagreed with those hyped-up predictions? What would happen to the stock of their corporate employer? (Would such a CTO be replaced with a true believer who could do a Musk, and keep promising FSD for a decade or more?) If they can't disagree with the Zeitgeist without being fired; then is this a case of The Emperor's New Clothes?
Granted, these tools are amazing and we can do great things with them; but can't the vendors just tell us the truth for once instead of trying to sell their faulty, dangerous products into environments where they don't fit? Why should we trust them or their word, if they almost certainly won't face real personal consequences (death, injury, imprisonment, or poverty) if 10 years from now, we find that they were lying, exaggerating, or ignorantly speculating about the capabilities of their products or the prospects of their economic impact? (The law is strict: proof of malice is usually required to impose real penalties. Therefore we should listen skeptically to their claims!)
When is a real expert going to do some proper analysis instead of making off-the-cuff hand-wavy guesstimates that 95% of coders will be replaced while 95% of coding gets done by machines while 20× more code gets generated and infinity × more problems get solved as we approach an AI singularity, so that we're all getting fired from our jobs by machines that are better than us while simultaneously living in an abundant egalitarian Utopia — or instead of making different predictions depending on which audience they're talking to (citing cost savings & profits to stock investors, while citing productivity gains to their product teams)?
There's a hard core of code in OS kernels, low-level filesystems, device drivers, commonly used software libraries, core product architecture & functionality, etc. For security and reliability reasons, we're never going to coded that with an LLM and call it "done" if it passes a few unit tests. We might automate more testing with the latest technology, reducing workload by 10%; but we still need real experts doing the hard yards!