None of the polls were even close to the election results. Makes you wonder if it's even worth conducting polls these days.
2026 Election Watch. Races, Tomfoolery, And Other Things
- Thread starter LTParis
- Start date
What was the looking polling population vs voting? Apparently turnout was down by 36% from March. With the endorsement and decline in voter turnout, which candidates supporter were most likely to show up and which way would those who didn't vote for either last time learn?
Just does not seem surprising to me
Why? It's the second round of primary voting and primary votes have turnout problems to begin with. And with Trump endorsing Paxton, I can see a lot of Cornyn supports just not giving a shit anymore. It's not like Cornyn was an exciting candidate.
With 97% of the vote in, looks like 1.39M votes were cast for the runoff.
For the 3/3/26 primaries there was 1.57M votes cast.
261k votes for the primaries were cast for NOT Paxton or Cornyn
To theoretically some of the lesser votes for the runoff are people that didn't want either and didn't show.
As an aside 2.07M votes were cast for Talarico & Crockett
For the 3/3/26 primaries there was 1.57M votes cast.
261k votes for the primaries were cast for NOT Paxton or Cornyn
To theoretically some of the lesser votes for the runoff are people that didn't want either and didn't show.
As an aside 2.07M votes were cast for Talarico & Crockett
Going to be a interesting general election in Texas. I fully expect Paxton to win because Texas but this might be the Dems’ best chance ever. The biggest question is whether the GOP realizes how fucked they are in time and hold their noses and turn out to vote like they did with Cruz a few years ago. Paxton is not well liked.
I will say if Paxton does win a Senator pairing of Paxton and Cruz is a “Everything is bigger in Texas” sized dumpster fire.
I will say if Paxton does win a Senator pairing of Paxton and Cruz is a “Everything is bigger in Texas” sized dumpster fire.
Like your, "THE POLLS ARE OFF!!! THE POLLS ARE OFF!!! WHAARGARBL!!!"?
In 2024, a presidential election, Cruz got just under 6 million votes and Allred got just over 5 million votes, winning by 53 to 44.6%.
Trump won by 13.6 points, a 1.558 million votes margin.
It’s a very red state, at least it was in 2024.
Trump won by 13.6 points, a 1.558 million votes margin.
It’s a very red state, at least it was in 2024.
This was a fun ruling, as it pertains to voting.
I can see a path where the ruling is challenged, then appealed to the appeals courts, and then the Supreme Court, and the US will end up with an even worse ruling than Citizen United.
Unpalatable as it may be for some to hear it, removing Trump may actually be a worse overall outcome. Remember, Vance was involved in Project 2025, and wrote the forward to it. Without the bull-in-the-china-shop that is Trump, plans like this could be implemented more methodically with a comparatively boring figure occupying the Oval Office. Trump's unpredictability and inability to stick to a plan throws many political ideas asunder.
Yeah but with Trump not on the ballot...are you saying there's a chance?
A three-judge panel has again found that Alabama had purposefully discriminated based on race after the special master drafted the Congressional district map, which had been sent back for reconsideration after Callais. The opinion is remarkable considering these are two Trump-appointed judges on the panel.
They based their ruling on:
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5894918-alabama-republican-congressional-map-blocked/
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/05/alabama-callais-redistricting-gerrymandering/
They based their ruling on:
- The Purcell Principle - changes to maps should not be made this close to an election
- There is no evidence of partisanship as a goal in the map's legislative history, and there is ample evidence of racial intent. Merely claiming that the goal is partisan at trial, after the fact, does not make it so
- The presumption of legislative good faith was overcome by the record
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5894918-alabama-republican-congressional-map-blocked/
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/05/alabama-callais-redistricting-gerrymandering/
People keep thinking Trump is wholly unique and completely separate from the conservative project dating back to the 50s.
He’s not, and his hold over the party is all the evidence you need. Republicans made a concerted effort to manufacture Nazis and Trump activated them, and they will never moderate again.
Certainly Trump ruined the plan by various senators (including mine) to contest the election on January 6th--a plan which dropped from the national radar all together. If he had more control the 2020 election might have been stolen for him.
My primary argument is that with Trump, long-term strategies can fly out the window on the slightest whim, regardless of his core beliefs. As an example, I will present you the Iran Conflict. He certainly isn't one who can keep the eye on the ball.
The general public reaction to that entire affair is a great mystery. Perhaps a mix of hyper-partisanship and normalcy bias—especially in the post-pandemic world. Any rational voter who values democracy would have considered Trump persona non grata in light of that. Especially since all of the court cases related to voter irregularities Trump's side were claiming went nowhere.
McConnell et.al. are another story—they punted because they felt going with Trump would further their own gains, regardless of personal feelings. Quelle surprise when they were pushed to the side when Trump got what he needed from them.
I think if a cop or two had died on site at the Capitol, directly from injuries, and especially gunshots, it would have overcome some of the intentional blinders some Trump supporters have to the violence. Because a few passed away from suicide and another from a stress-induced stroke later, they can just mumble along with the faithful line.
The long-term strategy from Republicans, given what is known, seems to be destroying public trust in all levels of government thereby allowing the de facto takeover of society (you know, even more so) by private capital. They have been wildly successful at this under Trump.
Similarly, I would argue the Iran conflict, which Republicans have been pushing for literal decades, has been equally successful when viewed with their principles. The Iran conflict has allowed Republicans to: A) kill Iranian leadership, B) kill Iranian children, C) cripple Iranian infrastructure, D) cripple Iran economically, E) further destabilize the middle east, F) ostracize liberal state allies, G) and most importantly for long-term strategizing, undercut competing petrostates. If the goal is chaos and instability then chaos and instability aren't failures.
You give too much credit. 100 cops could have died on Jan 6 on the grounds, it would not matter to Trump supporters. Not a single solitary percentage.
That has ALWAYS been their MO. Govern like shit, point to the government and say "see the government can't run things" and under their breath "I know because I am actively sabotaging everything but controlling the people I hate". And look at places like TX that have been under total Republican control for 3 decades and they still blame the Dems, and Texans blindly nod their heads.
This will be fun. It'll be a race to see who can make the most shell corporations that meet whatever standard is required to vote. And what will the standard be that stops someone from just incorporating hundreds of companies? Basically deleware is for sale to the highest bidder?
The .gov is to be done away with when their team is not in power; but is infallible when their team is in power.
Nothing more nothing less than that.
So to the capital riot/movement/good ol' boys horsin' around; those cops were just NPCs. Once their boy got back in power those cops are the bulwark against Antifa or whoever they're at war with today.
Nothing more nothing less than that.
So to the capital riot/movement/good ol' boys horsin' around; those cops were just NPCs. Once their boy got back in power those cops are the bulwark against Antifa or whoever they're at war with today.
Not really. A city can let non-citizens vote in municipal elections if they want to, and there are a small number of existing cities that do.
Would fully agree with your first—since this greases the skids for a transformation to authoritarian society.
On the second—a side effect of entering such conflicts is that unlike domestic politics is that risks can expand exponentially and beyond even reasonable foresight. With the Iran Conflict, the results have been galvanizing popular sentiment against the United States abroad, weakening soft power, and jeopardizing the financial standing of the Dollar. Per their principles, they view petroleum as a lever of power—hence the inimical stances they take against renewables. Part of the reason they do this is because oil is what they know—primarily as income. Due to these unprovoked wars and the aforementioned shift in popular sentiment, though, the fallout will probably be an increased shift to renewables, led by other nations such as China. Being an unreliable partner as demonstrated by these actions—as well as the brazen corruption—will probably hasten the demise of the Petrodollar and Dollar as the premier reserve currency. This unfolding shift is creating domestic problems for Republicans—since it has increased prices on fuel and other costs of living, and many voters' primary loyalty is to their pocketbooks. Both for Trump and his voters, it's a self-created problem.
If a cop being tased into a heart attack and concussion is not enough to give pause to the law and order crowd, not sure death means much. Certainly they'd be out for blood were "Antifa" responsible for far less.
Not a peep in regards to the assaulted being pardoned.
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That would have just been evidence that "the woke mind virus has given us a while generation of weak cops who can't handle a few peaceful protesters."
The National Republican Senate Committee backed Cornyn to the hilt, putting out several negative releases about the various Paxton crimes.
They are now scrubbing those.
They are now scrubbing those.
In better new elsewhere, Hawaii is trying to undo Citizen United by enacting their corporate power reset law, redefining corporate power to prohibit them from spending money to influence elections. The bill received nearly unanimous support in the Hawaii Senate (24-0) and House (50-1), and will take effect July 1 2027.
The party Senate and House committees do exist with the normal goal of protecting incumbents regardless of current politics, so not surprising that they supported Cornyn and also not even surprising that they would scrub the negative releases about successful challengers.
I doubt removing Trump is on the table unless the GOP gets on board with it. What is on the table is taking control of one, or maybe both, houses of Congress and using that to put an end to much of Trump's insanity as the Democrats don't have the GOP's motivation to cede Congress' power to the Executive.
The House is still on the table but, man, the Supreme Court really stacked the deck in the GOP's favor.
Edit: The redistricting is just one piece of a much, much larger puzzle, but even going back to Musk and DOGE right after the inauguration last year and then ~gestures vaguely at the world~ everything else going on ... in both the White House and Congress (and the courts), these have not been the actions of people who plan to leave office anytime soon.
Or ever.
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The GOP imagined it could control the Dixiecrats it cultivated after Lyndon Johnson drove them out of the Democratic Party. Eventually they figured out they were being used then seized the power they were denied. That opened the door to a new generation who had no reason to support their predecessors when they could assert themselves and take over the party. Legacy Republicans could either bend the knee or painlessly retire from politics.
Dixiecrats and their post-Dixiecrat successors had no reason to tolerate dissent by Republicans they defeated.
The GOP Southern Strategy had the opposite of its intended effect.
That miscalculation is the age-old failing by political establishments. They think they can shape and mold extremists and use them to their advantage. Instead, it's a long road to perdition.
On the flip side, as far as I can tell, nobody actually likes Vance and he does not have nearly the same level of control over the rest of the GOP to get his "vision" implemented as Trump does
But the GOP just elected Paxton to run against Talarico. Paxton might even be more criminal than Trump. And this by a considerable margin, too.
Sure, but if Trump falls away, the back stabbing and infighting will begin immediately. People like Paxton can get away with being so criminal because there's a whole system "behind" and above them and one of the big things keeping that system anchored at the top is Trump. I doubt Vance can actually do the same.
I'm not sure that's possible, if nothing else, because, with one attempted coup and the non-weaponizarion under his belt, Trump has reached a degree of criminality that one can only reach as president.
That pre-election polling was wildly inaccurate is an objective fact.
there's a price:
look at the direction of curvature on that red line. Negative curvature on the red line, positive on the blue. People are making up their minds, and the Iran war has a part in that.