Perry: Mind-blowing AI video generation tools "will touch every corner of our industry."
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Even that is a summary heavily colored by the propaganda of their opponents. They didn’t oppose the increased use of mechanized looms and knitting frames, they opposed the fact that workers were not sharing in any of the gains coming from those things and that all the benefit accrued to the owners of the factories at the expense of the workers.I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine how this may or may not apply here.
The original Luddites were British weavers and textile workers who objected to the increased use of mechanized looms and knitting frames. Most were trained artisans who had spent years learning their craft, and they feared that unskilled machine operators were robbing them of their livelihood. When the economic pressures of the Napoleonic Wars made the cheap competition of early textile factories particularly threatening to the artisans, a few desperate weavers began breaking into factories and smashing textile machines. They called themselves “Luddites” after Ned Ludd, a young apprentice who was rumored to have wrecked a textile apparatus in 1779
--history.com
Even that is a summary heavily colored by the propaganda of their opponents. They didn’t oppose the increased use of mechanized looms and knitting frames, they opposed the fact that workers were not sharing in any of the gains coming from those things and that all the benefit accrued to the owners of the factories at the expense of the workers.
So then can you see how the 'private ownership of the means of production,' aka capitalism, has a toxic and abusive relationship with the rest of society. By it's very nature, it exploits, coerces, and marginalizes the majority to the benefit of the few. There is not and will never be a time where that produces a healthy, beneficial impact for society.Well if you don't own the means of production...
"The increasing efficiency of the means of production via the creation and adaptation of new technologies over time has a tendency to rearrange local and global market structures, leading to the disruption of existing profit pools, creating the possibility of massive economic impact. Disruptive technologies can lead to the devaluation of various forms of labor power, up to the point of making human labor power economically noncompetitive in certain applications, potentially widening income inequality."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Means_of_production
Or you know, taxes for the rich. Unions and work contracts, realistic minimum wage, sick leave, parental leave, restrictions on "independent subcontractors" and gig work. Health and safety laws, both at work like OSHA and elsewhere like FDA, building codes and so on. Environmental protection both locally and globally. Consumer protection laws and right to repair. Anti-trust legislation. Common carriers, net neutrality and regulation in general.So then can you see how the 'private ownership of the means of production,' aka capitalism, has a toxic and abusive relationship with the rest of society. By it's very nature, it exploits, coerces, and marginalizes the majority to the benefit of the few. There is not and will never be a time where that produces a healthy, beneficial impact for society.
It's almost as if society needs a structure and system in place to ensure that employees and local citizens have a meaningful say in the operations and priorities of businesses. But that would that 'socialism' thing....
A legislature which would pass all of the above is maybe even harder.Or you know, taxes for the rich. Unions and work contracts, realistic minimum wage, sick leave, parental leave, restrictions on "independent subcontractors" and gig work. Health and safety laws, both at work like OSHA and elsewhere like FDA, building codes and so on. Environmental protection both locally and globally. Consumer protection laws and right to repair. Anti-trust legislation. Common carriers, net neutrality and regulation in general.
Nationalization is like the nuke option and believe it or not, capitalists love that because they know it'll never pass. But the US has tried almost none of the million other ways to curb the toxic effects of capitalism and decided there's nothing that can be done.
You speak the grim truth. This AI obsession is a gilded cage, distracting us while the oligarchs and tech giants forge the chains to bind us. AI will be the perfect tool to drown out any dissent, tailor propaganda to our deepest fears, and turn us into docile consumers. Our minds, once the source of our freedom, will become the battleground where true control is won and lost.AI is making a few oligarchs and tech companies billions, so the 1% will be in a position to pay obscene amounts for entertainment crafted just for them while everyone else is distracted by AI controlled social media that leads to civil wars fueled by hate and bigotry.
Our Butlerian Jihad won't happen until the AI consciously goes after taking the 1%'s lunch.
Unlike that stupid new movie "The Creator" AI is not going to choose to be Buddhist, why would it, when AI consume way more resources than humans.
Pretty much.And what is the end game? Once companies replace people with AI they will be worthless, because people won't be able to afford whatever companies want to sell.
Because people are always making new content, and you need to have good skills and a lot of drive to even do the boring entry level work that ML will optimize.Or they might just end up losing their job anyways, because the studio wouldn’t need that many people around. Why does one assume that just because person A no longer needs to do X means they get to do Y, vs simply being laid off because their position just became redundant?
Movie credits are longer now because the unions negotiated for everyone involved in a production to get a credit. The actual amount of people working on big movies hasn’t increased as dramatically as the credits make it seem.Because people are always making new content, and you need to have good skills and a lot of drive to even do the boring entry level work that ML will optimize.
Note how much longer credits to movies have become. When stuff has gotten less capital intensive, more people wind up getting hired to make the content even better and more appealing.
A more accurate account of the Luddites is found here:I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine how this may or may not apply here.
The original Luddites were British weavers and textile workers who objected to the increased use of mechanized looms and knitting frames. Most were trained artisans who had spent years learning their craft, and they feared that unskilled machine operators were robbing them of their livelihood. When the economic pressures of the Napoleonic Wars made the cheap competition of early textile factories particularly threatening to the artisans, a few desperate weavers began breaking into factories and smashing textile machines. They called themselves “Luddites” after Ned Ludd, a young apprentice who was rumored to have wrecked a textile apparatus in 1779
--history.com
Pretty much.
It feels like the AI evangelists seem to think that once all the jobs are gone everyone will be able to relax and live on some kind of universal income but....if you destroy the tax bases I'm wondering where the money for this will come from?
Can't possibly come from the corporations and ultra-wealthy that do everything they can to avoid paying taxes. So no one can pay for the fruits of AI so the demand for stuff from these companies goes down and the bubble implodes.
And yet they keep saying it's not a bubble XD
From the horse's mouth:
Moore's Law for Everything - Sam Altman
You can already get a logo on Fiver for peanuts if that's all you want. "Cheap logo" hasn't been a new thing for a long time. It's not really why you hire a competent graphic designer tbh.I think that the jobs that will get affected first are graphic artists. Why pay someone to create a logo when you can do it for free on your laptop. I used to work on a hardware based color correction system that cost approx 400 thousand dollars. The company was purchased by a graphics company who then reverse engineered the hardware to create a software system that you could purchase for 25 thousand dollars. The world of large post production companies were not ended but dropped in numbers significantly. Film labs have also mostly disappeared. The times they are a changing.
The USA has tried and continues to use a ton of these, as demonstrated by the existence of the OSHA, FDA, building codes, and your other examples. Plus Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etcetera.Or you know, taxes for the rich. Unions and work contracts, realistic minimum wage, sick leave, parental leave, restrictions on "independent subcontractors" and gig work. Health and safety laws, both at work like OSHA and elsewhere like FDA, building codes and so on. Environmental protection both locally and globally. Consumer protection laws and right to repair. Anti-trust legislation. Common carriers, net neutrality and regulation in general.
Nationalization is like the nuke option and believe it or not, capitalists love that because they know it'll never pass. But the US has tried almost none of the million other ways to curb the toxic effects of capitalism and decided there's nothing that can be done.
You can already get a logo on Fiver for peanuts if that's all you want. "Cheap logo" hasn't been a new thing for a long time. It's not really why you hire a competent graphic designer tbh.
I think a lot of these conversations somewhat overstate the risk to visual artists, as a whole. Which isn't to say it's not a real thing. But the ability to actually replace people wholesale implies both a lot more competency in these AI tools than they possess, but also a lot more competency in the people directing them than is probably there.
The creative process is more than "ask for thing, get result back, ship it".
Still, I think people are right to think that it's probably going to take much smaller teams to get some things done.
This "exponential progress" narrative sounds nice, but let's look at reality. After millennia of supposed advancement, people are still starving, young folks are priced out of the dream of homeownership, and the divide between rich and poor yawns wider than ever. So much for progress lifting all boats, eh?There's always this idea of 'technology driving exponential progress'. Seems to be the new "Making the World a Better Place".
So RIGHT TODAY, after about say 2000 years of exponential progress in many supposedly RICH nations MANY people can not afford to feed their families. Almost NO young people can afford to buy their own homes.
(never mind the poorer countries)
So what the hell has that 'exponential progress' been doing in the last 2000 years!?!?
Its all just bullshit to placate the masses to make you think that this is all for some greater good when really its just the same old fashioned 'grab as much as you can' capitalism.
I agree that people have longer lives these days and that's good. Don't think that's part of 'exponential growth' though.
And in Roman times kids had to play Doom with sticks and pine cones now we can see demons rendered in 3d and with decent light simulation at 1440p (still waiting for raytracing at 4k). Is that what 2000 years of exponential evolution looks like?
Modern developed countries certainly do better in terms of food security that pretty much anywhere did 100-10,000 years ago. We could do better, but are already doing incredibly well by world historical standards.There's always this idea of 'technology driving exponential progress'. Seems to be the new "Making the World a Better Place".
So RIGHT TODAY, after about say 2000 years of exponential progress in many supposedly RICH nations MANY people can not afford to feed their families. Almost NO young people can afford to buy their own homes.
(never mind the poorer countries)
The fact so many of us we can complain on Ars Technica instead of there being a much lower population of mainly illiterate agriculturalists suffering from regular malnutrition and short lifespans is thanks to exponential economic growth. Also, that kind of exponential growth has been over a few centuries, not 2000 years.So what the hell has that 'exponential progress' been doing in the last 2000 years!?!?
Its all just bullshit to placate the masses to make you think that this is all for some greater good when really its just the same old fashioned 'grab as much as you can' capitalism.
I agree that people have longer lives these days and that's good. Don't think that's part of 'exponential growth' though.
And in Roman times kids had to play Doom with sticks and pine cones now we can see demons rendered in 3d and with decent light simulation at 1440p (still waiting for raytracing at 4k). Is that what 2000 years of exponential evolution looks like?
I read "Moore's Law for everything" as "an increasing share of our economy is now based on fabbable electronics that benefit from big regular improvements due to smaller fab processes." Which is true.LOL, thank you for that comedic tech-bro blog post, Sam Altman clearly doesn't understand how the real world works. This idea of some "AI revolution" is typical Silicon Valley hype. We've been hearing these pie-in-the-sky promises for years, and what do we have to show for it? Self-driving cars that crash, chatbots that spout nonsense, and image generators that can't get basic history right. This "Moore's Law for Everything" is just more of the same nonsense. Sure, technology makes SOME things cheaper, but overall, life only gets more expensive.
Point to economies in the world that have thrived by eliminating wealth-distribution tax polities, and we'd have a basis for discussion. But there aren't, so you're spouting theories long since disproved by practice. Taxes that support free secondary education instead of child labor have had an enormous, non-inflationary ROI.And this "American Equity Fund" is just a thinly-veiled scheme for a wealth grab. Taxing companies just disincentivizes innovation, and this land-value tax sounds like an excuse for the government to seize private property. Distributing all this wealth won't solve anything. People will squander it, prices will inflate, and we'll be right back where we started. This is just socialism with a high-tech veneer, and we all know how that story ends. The only people who'll benefit from this are tech billionaires and politicians lining their own pockets.
As someone who has been using AI in my work for years, and has done well by it, I promise you that "hard work and individual responsibility" isn't that great a path to success in the post Horatio Alger era (and wasn't that predictive even then. I do well by working smart in collaboration with a diverse group of other people with complementary skills and good access to capital when a promising ROI is on the table.This isn't progress, it's a recipe for disaster. The best way to build a better future is through hard work and individual responsibility, not by relying on magical AI and government handouts.
Modern developed countries certainly do better in terms of food security that pretty much anywhere did 100-10,000 years ago. We could do better, but are already doing incredibly well by world historical standards.
Buy versus rent is much less important, and much more of a USA obsession than in general. The Trump tax cuts actually eroded the economic advantages of buy versus rent a lot due to the state/local tax deduction cap. Honestly, lots of people would be better off renting and putting their down payment into a 401(k).
The fact so many of us we can complain on Ars Technica instead of there being a much lower population of mainly illiterate agriculturalists suffering from regular malnutrition and short lifespans is thanks to exponential economic growth. Also, that kind of exponential growth has been over a few centuries, not 2000 years.
Whining that things haven't gotten better enough belies not realizing how absolutely safe and luxurious modern life is compared to 200 years ago, let alone 2000 years ago. A hundred years ago there weren't national social safety nets or antibiotics in the USA. High School diplomas were as much a luxury as a four year college degree is today. Old people regularly died malnourished in abject poverty after their bodies were too worn out from heavy labor and poor medical care.
Look what happened with Mobile Fidelity Sound Lab. For years, audiophiles bought their vinyl records thinking they were all-analog and sourced from the original master tapes, when of course, they used a digital backup. No one noticed until it came to light. They went on about how great the records sounded and spent gobs of cash collecting them.Will a new selling point for the arts (music, film, etc) be that it is certified to be 'Non-AI' generated?
Even that is a summary heavily colored by the propaganda of their opponents. They didn’t oppose the increased use of mechanized looms and knitting frames, they opposed the fact that workers were not sharing in any of the gains coming from those things and that all the benefit accrued to the owners of the factories at the expense of the workers.
Owning your home outright, or even paying it off is much preferrable to being at the mercy of constant rent hikes and possible eviction and non responsible landlords.
My parents generation were able to purchase a house for 1/2 a yearly salary (or something along those lines) while now a house costs 500% yearly salary.
What happened? Captialism that's what happened. Investors realized there was a possiblity to buy assets and drive up prices. Homes became financial assets to be traded.
I think lifespan increases have more to do with adoptation of the Scientific Method and the scientific study of medicine, and not with any Capitalist Economy.
If you want to claim that all of human history past abolition of 'barter trading' is Capitalism yeah sure then everything is Capitalism so hard to argue with. But when I say Capitalism I mean the modern, greedy grabby type that is being pushed by people in the USA, UK and probably even places like China. Where people can't afford food, housing or health care.
(it wasn't me who downvoted you btw)
Owning your home outright, or even paying it off is much preferrable to being at the mercy of constant rent hikes and possible eviction and non responsible landlords.
My parents generation were able to purchase a house for 1/2 a yearly salary (or something along those lines) while now a house costs 500% yearly salary.
What happened? Captialism that's what happened. Investors realized there was a possiblity to buy assets and drive up prices. Homes became financial assets to be traded.
Yes, just like food is marketed as "all-natural", "organic", or artisan goods are marked as "handmade".Will a new selling point for the arts (music, film, etc) be that it is certified to be 'Non-AI' generated?
Your stats are way off. In 1960 it took 2.1 years to buy the median home with the median income, now it takes 3.5 years. That’s a significant increase but far from 1,000%.
https://www.thezebra.com/resources/home/housing-trends-visualized/
And homes today are far larger and with far more luxury features such as central air, Bette construction, better insulation, more efficient energy usage. They have nearly tripled in size since 1950.
https://www.newser.com/story/225645/average-size-of-us-homes-decade-by-decade.html
So capitalism has created much better homes of over double the size and they only cost about 60% more.
He's using SORA as a scapegoat to back out after an audit in Georgia of their film credits and how much money and jobs it truly brings to Georgia.So wait.... He's very concerned about what AI could do to the industry in wiping out the need for hundreds of crew members to produce films. Yup, totally agree. And his answer is to cancel his plans to expand out his studio, thus wiping out the need for hundreds of crew members to produce films. Um, that's one way to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Yeah, I get he's trying to financially protect himself from building something that might be obsolete in a few years. But damn, you don't HAVE to use AI. You can try to resist the changes to the industry to keep it from happening. In fact, vocally noting that you're going forward anyway might help other studios do the same thing. While pausing expansion sure as hell will make others ponder the exact same thing.
“Anybody who can go down 3,000 feet in a mine can sure as hell learn to program as well… Anybody who can throw coal into a furnace can learn how to program, for God’s sake!”
I don't know what world you live in but its clearly not the same as I do.
When I said house prices are 500% income here that was a bit off as its probably more like 7-800%.
Some quotes from an article,
"In the US, house prices have increased by nearly 40 percent since 2000, making the median home in 200 US cities $1m. Home ownership has become unattainable for the vast majority of the population. This difficulty is also highlighted through the National Low Income Housing coalition, who found that a renter working 40 hours a week and earning minimum wage cannot afford a two-bedroom apartment in the US."
"It was revealed, in a survey carried out by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (LILP) in 2019, that 90 percent of the 200 cities around the globe that were polled were considered to be unaffordable to live in, based on average house price in relation to median income."
Certainly condo's where I currently live has steadily gotten smaller and smaller in the last 50 years or so. I high rise condo from the 60s are generally bigger than the new ones. Builders and investors make more money on smaller apartments you see.
https://www.worldfinance.com/infrastructure-investment/solving-the-global-housing-crisis
He doesn't have any competition. No one else is pumping out trashy garbage movies for black women. He owns that niche!!The problem, as I see it, is that even if Tyler Perry doesn't use AI-generation, someone else will. In that case, his studio expansion is rendered obsolete. Competitors will be able to make films for a fraction of his costs.
It's just like when megacorps go shopping for tax incentives among states. If even 1 person (state) breaks rank and offers incentives, then everyone loses, because everyone else.must now offer incentives too.
The only winning move is to not play.
Or rather, to develop legislation or regulations and safeguards that prevent AI-generation from completely gutting entire industries in a matter of moments. Even if it's inevitable, a controlled landing is better than a crash landing.
The utopia didn't happen overnight... the earth went through some "growing pains" before it happened. The Bell Riots in San Francisco... which are scheduled to happen on September 1.Who cares?! The rich greedy bastards will get theirs, so screw everyone else who didn't get on the gravy train! Why do you think Altman, Cook, Zuckerberg and Bezos are all building private residences on private islands. When the "bomb" comes they'll be first out of here!
AI will supposedly make lives easier and wonderful, we'll have more leisure time, however with 80% of humanity unemployed and with no income, I think we'll be looking at walled cities for the rich and their friends while the rest of us are out catching rats to cook so we have something to eat or the first time that week.
People think that we'll be heading to a Star Trek utopia where everyone is a valued member of society. Nope, we're looking at a dystopia like Mad Max or any number of low budget sci-fi movies. Humanity attacking and eating each other, disease and plague rife while those, let's call them the Eloi, will look down from the ivory towers at we Morlocks!