Forecasters say expected El Niño should temper hurricanes in Atlantic, urge preparedness.
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Forecasters predict below-average hurricane season, advise against complacency
- Thread starter JournalBot
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The 1992 hurricane season was below average. There were only seven named storms. Just four of them became hurricanes. Only one of those was a major (Cat 3-5) hurricane. However, that hurricane was Andrew. Andrew was perhaps the most destructive storm to hit Florida. It made landfall as a category 5 storm. The only more costly hurricane for all of the U.S. was Katrina in 2005.
With a hurricane, it is all about location. The storm looks enormous on the satellite view. The really killer weather conditions only extend about 30 to 50 miles from the center. In 2016, Matthew flooded east coast communities in Florida. My wife and I paddled through our neighborhood in our kayaks on the Sunday after it passed. In 2017, Irma went past on the west side of us as it left a path of devastation.
I've lived in Florida long enough to not pay any attention at all to hurricane season forecasts.
With a hurricane, it is all about location. The storm looks enormous on the satellite view. The really killer weather conditions only extend about 30 to 50 miles from the center. In 2016, Matthew flooded east coast communities in Florida. My wife and I paddled through our neighborhood in our kayaks on the Sunday after it passed. In 2017, Irma went past on the west side of us as it left a path of devastation.
I've lived in Florida long enough to not pay any attention at all to hurricane season forecasts.
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Let's hope it's a slow season indeed. In the best of times a massive storm hitting the US is bad enough. With a Trump administration that is ill disposed and ill equipped to properly respond to disaster this would be the last thing we need.
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The where and how much is as important as the how many.
Where I live:
3-4 straight days of rain:
Just after crops reach full height: Bumper season.
Just before or after the crops germinate: Total ruin.
I hope it is a slow season and the storms avoid landfall.
Where I live:
3-4 straight days of rain:
Just after crops reach full height: Bumper season.
Just before or after the crops germinate: Total ruin.
I hope it is a slow season and the storms avoid landfall.
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Yep. It may be a predicted less busy season, but it only takes one to cause serious trouble.
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Already started hurricane season prep here. Generator is being balky about staying started but have some time to work on it still. Wish gas was a little cheaper because I usually store about 12 gas cans through the season rotating with fresh gas as I use it in the zero turn. Hoping for no hurricanes but preparing like there is going to be one landfalling in my area.
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And since reality is exceptionally unforgiving, that means a major storm or two will hit highly populated and vulnerable areas.
I'm sure FEMA is laying in a huge supply of paper towels...
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Oddly enough I was thinking about hurricanes earlier this month when watching the video of the Starship flight. It struck me that the launch site seems strangely unprotected from storm surges etc. One would think that being on the gulf coast, one would protect expensive infrastructure from storm surges via some of the known strategies.
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I'm wondering if any of the forecasting abilities of the NWS have been neutered due to the current administration slashing funding for (and attempting to close) NOAA (of which the NWS/NHC is a part of). If, due to a skeleton staff and lack of research approval, their forecast had insufficient information to accurately forecast the hurricane season, that's not pleasant to think about.
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I have gotten a small dual fuel inverter generator. Ethanol free gasoline with a stabilizer in a full gasoline can will keep for a couple of years or a bit more. Propane will keep pretty much forever. I store my gasoline generator "dry". I drain the gasoline. Run the generator until it dies from no gasoline in the carburetor. Crank the generator until the piston is on a compression stroke with the intake and exhaust valves closed. (This keeps moist air from entering the cylinder and causing corrosion.) Stored like this, a generator can sit for years until needed. I've never had a problem starting it when needed.
I've found that a small inverter generator requires less fuel and is quiet. I've found that we just need enough power for a small window air conditioner for our bedroom, the refrigerator, and of course the coffee pot. Whether it is gasoline or propane, storing large quantities of fuel can be dangerous.
The other way to go, if one has the money, is a whole house backup generator.
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The launch facility is built to withstand the power of the Starship booster. The first launch pulverized the concrete and caused major damage. I don't think a hurricane can match the force of a Starship booster.
https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-damage-starbase-launch-pad
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It has been a fairly quiet tornado season here in OK. But it only takes one big one to change a quiet season into a 'Remembered Forever' event.
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My sister's kid is on the list too. They are in the beginning of the Alphabet so they're definitely going to be in the news.
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The scientific part of the article is fine, but I really want to laugh at the nannying tone laid over that, as if this is some sort of PSA from FEMA. Can't you talk about the upcoming hurricane season without TELLING US WHAT WE MUST DO ... and we already know what we must do, anyway, hurricanes have been running through the US for the last few hundred years.
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Fewer.
Anyway, at the risk of wasting even more time on climate change denial in the year of our overlords 2026…
The Green House Effect is observable. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is observable. The ambient energy expressed in the environment (temperature) is observable. The interaction between storm formation, wind, and ocean temperature is observable. The…
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I think you're being a bit unfair there. Yes, the current theories are that climate warming has two effects (more intense El Ninos, warmer Atlantic) that have opposite effects on hurricanes. But we don't really (or shouldn't) use the hurricane statistics to decide whether the predicted climate warming is happening; we measure the temperature and see that it is.
That being said, it's clear that "Inside Cimate News" is dedicated to telling you everything bad that could possibly result from climate change so as to motivate its readers to take political action to try to reduce CO2 emissions. For that matter, Ars is doing about the same -- If climate change increases the incidence of hangnail, Ars will surely tell us that, whereas if it somehow brought eternal life, it wouldn't.
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Even if so, thankfully there are other private weather enterprises who won't be going away - AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, etc. - all of who can serve as a check on this administration's NWS and NOAA.
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I'm glad this is a point ("it only takes one") that the comments made. But I'm also glad it's been stated that with the shitstorm of an administration we currently have, that it would be very nice for any systems not to make landfall.
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I have that at my newbuilt house. It is propane powered. My electric provider has a history of long outages and just one freezer full of food is worth about half the install cost. I was a bit dismayed however to learn that my generator needed an internet connection for initial setup. WTF? I guess I should have done some research before my contractor chose the device but it is not something I was even aware was a thing. Not sure about their competitors but, Generac? Bite me!
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As a Floridian import I mostly use this annual prediction as a flag to get prepared for the season. But that’s about all it is useful for. The prediction itself is of academic interest only.
1. Some years it is wildly off. So any number has to be taken with a grain of salt.
2. As others have mentioned, it can’t tell us how many storms will make landfall, where they will land or how large they will be. That kind of information we only get with days or hours of notice.
So pack your hurricane kits and make your plans, but don’t bother trying to read much into the numbers.
1. Some years it is wildly off. So any number has to be taken with a grain of salt.
2. As others have mentioned, it can’t tell us how many storms will make landfall, where they will land or how large they will be. That kind of information we only get with days or hours of notice.
So pack your hurricane kits and make your plans, but don’t bother trying to read much into the numbers.
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Just to be safe you might want to avoid the coast this summer.
/s
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The only bit that needs to withstand the blast of the engines is the bit immediately under the launch stand. And a hurricane ripping up the ground like the rocket blast does is... not something anyone is concerned with. What they ARE concerned with is the miles and miles of unprotected pipes, massive towers clad in basically just corrugated metal sheets, cars and tools just strewn about the place, etc, etc. Anything unsecured becomes a projectile that can then impact something else and do damage. Sheeting ripping off a building also becomes blown debris that can do damage miles away and the holes letting the wind blast in can do a lot of damage to the building itself and whatever is inside of it. I share the concern that the entire SpaceX site doesn't look particularly well hurricane proofed.
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I'm not sure that'd help much considering Helene still managed to hit me several hundred miles inland.
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Thanks for amplifying in better detail my original query.
to extend your extension
Other obvious thoughts: the tank farm is protected from rocket blast: but the open ocean a short distance away?
Nope:
Another well known aspect of hurricanes is that the storm surge can cause substantial erosion and undermining impacts to structures. So how much of that infrastructure can withstand an extended, multi hour, heavy wave impact?
And all of that's before we ponder the risk of sea level rises and shifts? (I mean, for crying out loud, the US military is making planning steps around impacts of climate change to their bases: and they aren't exactly known for being tree hugging lefties. LOL)
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It’s interesting that you mention this because climate scientists have been making falsifiable claims since the Carter administration and their track record is quite good, whereas the fossil lobbyists who have you your talking points have a dismal record hopping from point to point as each one collapses under the evidence.
One error which you lead with is treating it like video game where hitting climate change level 3 means hurricanes spawn twice as frequently or a new class 6 unit shows up. What was actually predicted and has been shown to be happening is that there’s consistently more CO₂, warmer average temperatures in the ocean, more moisture in the atmosphere, etc. which change how weather events happen in ways which matter to people.
That difference is significant because it means past risk assumptions no longer hold. Hurricane Helene is a good example: it wasn’t like we’d never had category 4 hurricanes before, or experienced flooding, but what made it so damaging was that it started from record-warm water, picking up an unusual amount of moisture, and then it collided with a “cut-off low” (which climate change makes more common as the jet-stream destabilizes) so it stayed in one area long enough to dump enough rain that places which hadn’t previously been considered high flood risks were overwhelmed. That pattern is visible for almost every weather-related natural disaster.
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Came to say the exact same thing. I escaped Andrew by about 15 miles. Nothing blown over in my yard, total destruction 15 miles away, in a "quiet" season.
Wind shear almost killed Andrew before it got going.
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Instead of a whole home generator, we got a tri-fuel portable generator and had a natural gas hookup added to our existing connection for it, along with a switch over for our electrical panel.
It does require some maintenance and setup if the power goes out, but for the cost savings, it made sense for us. Time to get it out and do some maintenance to make sure everything is working.
It does require some maintenance and setup if the power goes out, but for the cost savings, it made sense for us. Time to get it out and do some maintenance to make sure everything is working.
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