Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

ramases

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That links to an RT page. Ick. Here's an actual link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.na...er/how-to-speed-up-nuclear-proliferation/amp/

Weird agreeing with National Review on something.

On my, stupid, "Make Europe Great Again" phrasing I made above: I should have googled that one. The intended meaning was to simply say I support a stronger, more integrated, assertive Europe. It should make the world a better place, hopefully first in Ukraine.

Hmn. Weird.

That never happened to me before that the link target of that archive got replaced, but now that it happened and I did have a look around that apparently isn't the first time this happened with archive dot ph links. Off onto the shitlist that page goes.

Thanks for the heads-up, I removed the link from my post.
 
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VividVerism

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Hmn. Weird.

That never happened to me before that the link target of that archive got replaced, but now that it happened and I did have a look around that apparently isn't the first time this happened with archive dot ph links. Off onto the shitlist that page goes.

Thanks for the heads-up, I removed the link from my post.
I've seen it discussed elsewhere that this probably isn't archive.is/archive.ph/archive.today's doing, there's an active effort to bring them down, likely over their popular role as a paywall bypass.

Edit to add: I personally haven't seen the specific issue of being redirected to RT pages. I've seen mentions that different browsers or VPN use gets rid of the RT redirect. It's weird.
 

Technarch

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Tendar has a nice breakdown of the "peace plan" chain of events on bluesky. Tl;dr: the Russians leaked the "plan" while it was still being worked with Witikoff, thus crystallizing their position and forcing the administration to go along with it or risk looking incompetent, or both.
 

Lt_Storm

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Tendar has a nice breakdown of the "peace plan" chain of events on bluesky. Tl;dr: the Russians leaked the "plan" while it was still being worked with Witikoff, thus crystallizing their position and forcing the administration to go along with it or risk looking incompetent, or both.
I fail to see how that forces the administration to "go along with it or risk looking incompetent". After all, anyone who would go along with that plan looks incompetent regardless of any leaks. Honestly, replying to such a leak with "this is an attempt by the Russians to force their preferred plan down everyone's throat" Strikes me as a much much more competent look.
 
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Alexander

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Tendar has a nice breakdown of the "peace plan" chain of events on bluesky. Tl;dr: the Russians leaked the "plan" while it was still being worked with Witikoff, thus crystallizing their position and forcing the administration to go along with it or risk looking incompetent, or both.

It's just some random dude speculating on social media. You could quote someone's post in this thread with equal authority.

Everyone assumes that 'K' (the leaker) is Kirill but it could also be Gen. Keith Kellogg.
 

Technarch

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It's just some random dude speculating on social media. You could quote someone's post in this thread with equal authority.

Everyone assumes that 'K' (the leaker) is Kirill but it could also be Gen. Keith Kellogg.

Tendar's been faithfully covering the Ukraine war and Russian foreign relations for over three years, he's not "some random dude".
 

Vlip

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Tendar has a nice breakdown of the "peace plan" chain of events on bluesky. Tl;dr: the Russians leaked the "plan" while it was still being worked with Witikoff, thus crystallizing their position and forcing the administration to go along with it or risk looking incompetent, or both.
This administration cares about looking incompetent?
I thought that was part of the brand by now.

I mean, seriously, they sent some random real estate guy to head your diplomatic team to negotiate peace for the most important geopolitical conflict of your generation. "Looking incompetent" is the least of their concern.
 

Thegn

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Chamberlain had a plan—buying Britain needed time to prepare for the inevitable war. Nero may be a better analogy—even if the story's apocryphal. Trump is certainly fiddling while Rome America burns.
I think Galba may be a better emperor - shamelessly manipulated by his advisors.
 

LtKernelPanic

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, Trump is the Chamberlain of our time. Except without the IQ. It's pretty sad that I had to explain what this meant to some people months ago. Doesn't everyone today at least have even a rudimentary understanding of the 20th century or WW2?
If trump’s our Chamberlain who’s going to step up and be Churchill?
 

bjn

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If trump’s our Chamberlain who’s going to step up and be Churchill?
Trump isn’t even Chamberlain. Chamberlain was in no position to do much about Czechoslovakia. Poland and Hungary were keen on getting in on grabbing territory and the French were politically divided and were in no position for yet another war while at home in the UK the general populace were in dread of another war. Chamberlain knew what Hitler and the NAZIs were, so when he came back to the UK, he accelerated the country’s rearmament in expectation of what was to come. When Churchill took over as PM Chamberlain was a valued member of his war cabinet.

Trump is nothing like that, he’s so far up Putin’s arse he can see light through his master’s teeth.
 
If trump’s our Chamberlain who’s going to step up and be Churchill?

We had Boris Johnson cosplaying Churchill. But it is one of the few times (perhaps actually the only time ever) that I've seen a general view that he handled it well and did the right thing.

Note that Churchill was widely disliked before the war and also after the war too. My grandad said after the war he voted against Churchill 'because we were fed up of his face everywhere'.

There's also a quote floating about that MPs would flock into Parliament to hear & delight in Churchill's powerful oratory, but would invariably vote against him anyway. He struggled to marshal facts, to string logic together, and appeared obsessed with military matters, not the social justice matters that were key post-war issues.
 
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-q...-as-europe-reportedly-issues-counterproposal/

The 28 point plan is dead, long live the 19 point plan. Looks reasonably good, Rubio and Ukraine both like it. Putin has already rejected it, but it should hopefully keep Trump from more stupidity (in this particular area) for a short while.
I think a 3 point plan would be best:

1 Russia withdraws to 1991 borders
2. Ukraine gets into NATO and EU if it wants
3. The reparations are inversely proportional to the amount of fuckers who die in jail in The Hague.
 
I think a 3 point plan would be best:

1 Russia withdraws to 1991 borders
2. Ukraine gets into NATO and EU if it wants
3. The reparations are inversely proportional to the amount of fuckers who die in jail in The Hague.
I'd like to have something in there about the repatriation of kidnapped children and a few other things...
 

dzid

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I'd like to have something in there about the repatriation of kidnapped children and a few other things...
That and punishment of the "children's czar" and any regional governor that facilitated the illegal trafficking of Ukrainian children into that region.
 

Vlip

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https://kyivindependent.com/trump-q...-as-europe-reportedly-issues-counterproposal/

The 28 point plan is dead, long live the 19 point plan. Looks reasonably good, Rubio and Ukraine both like it. Putin has already rejected it, but it should hopefully keep Trump from more stupidity (in this particular area) for a short while.

Step 1: Trump "diplomats" go meet with Russia alone. They come back with the same tired capitulation edicts and call them "peace accord"
Step 2: Trump threatens to abandon Ukraine if it doesn't take this deal
Step 3: Ukraine and European leaders have to drop everything they are doing to babysit Trump and propose a more sensible counter proposal
Step 4: Putin says "Nah" to both variants of the deal anyway

Rince, repeat.

What's it now? The third time? Can't keep track anymore...
 

Demento

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Meduza has a selection of comments from its Russian-language readers on the deal, ranging from any peace will do to disgust at the deal:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/1...rs-react-to-trump-s-ukraine-russia-peace-plan


Thought these remarks from a Russian who says the deal is terrible but there's no alternative were on point:
I’m convinced Ukraine could have won this war if NATO and the E.U. had consistently supported the government in Kyiv from the first weeks of the conflict and taken care in advance of all the reforms needed to counter Russia’s ambitions. But the West is heading into the fourth year of the war weak — unable to rearm quickly or reform its militaries — despite having an economy and population several times larger than Russia’s. The result is a bizarre picture: a poor but furious Russia is prepared to fight even under sanctions, while the West, after four years, is still sucking its paw, projecting unity and toughness in words, but in reality seizing the first opportunity to settle things with a peace deal, avoiding astronomical expenses while preserving the illusion of stability and external security.
 
Meduza has a selection of comments from its Russian-language readers on the deal, ranging from any peace will do to disgust at the deal:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/1...rs-react-to-trump-s-ukraine-russia-peace-plan


Thought these remarks from a Russian who says the deal is terrible but there's no alternative were on point:
That last comment looks like it's coming from a Russian who, like many Russians do, view the collective west as a single, homogeneous entity, or possibly European countries as obedient vassal states of the US. Trump might be desperate for a peace deal, but painting European leaders as trying to force an unfavorable deal on Ukraine is objectively false (Orban et al excepted, as usual).
 

Hangfire

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I mean why didn't we send all the things then?

Why all the hamstringing?

No that Russian fella is more right than wrong.

Why is the west so scared? This stupid war would've been done with the quickness if the west had any balls at all.
Escalation management, old models and preconceptions of the efficacy and robustness of the Russian military and nuclear blackmail.

The war wasn’t prolonged because the West lacked courage. It was prolonged because it took time for the establishment analysts to unlearn the myth of Russian competence and to calibrate aid without triggering nuclear thresholds.

I do not agree where the current nuclear thresholds are currently believed to be, but that is another issue entirely.
 
Escalation management, old models and preconceptions of the efficacy and robustness of the Russian military and nuclear blackmail.

The war wasn’t prolonged because the West lacked courage. It was prolonged because it took time for the establishment analysts to unlearn the myth of Russian competence and to calibrate aid without triggering nuclear thresholds.

I do not agree where the current nuclear thresholds are currently believed to be, but that is another issue entirely.
And don't forget a certain impeached president who single-handedly botched arming Ukraine even after all the appropriations had passed the legislative gauntlet of our corrupt, sleazy, western democracy because he wanted personal favors......
 
Trump isn’t even Chamberlain. Chamberlain was in no position to do much about Czechoslovakia. Poland and Hungary were keen on getting in on grabbing territory and the French were politically divided and were in no position for yet another war while at home in the UK the general populace were in dread of another war. Chamberlain knew what Hitler and the NAZIs were, so when he came back to the UK, he accelerated the country’s rearmament in expectation of what was to come. When Churchill took over as PM Chamberlain was a valued member of his war cabinet.

Trump is nothing like that, he’s so far up Putin’s arse he can see light through his master’s teeth.

I strongly disagree about Czechoslovakia.
Czechoslovakia had strong army (for small-ish country) and weapons production hub.
In Czechoslovakian betrayal, Germany effortlessly seized a significant amount of military equipment:
2,175 field cannons, 469 tanks, 500 anti-aircraft artillery pieces, 43,000 machine guns, 1,090,000 rifles, and 114,000 pistols.
And ammunition. The Germans also captured approximately one billion rounds of ammunition.

Germany acquired 469 tanks, including 298 LT vz. 35 and 80 LT vz. 38 models. These were integrated into German service as the Panzer 35(t) and Panzer 38(t) and were critical for early campaigns.
Captured military industry was very significant too:
The chassis of Czech tanks, especially the Panzer 38(t), continued to be produced after 1939 and was used as the basis for new German self-propelled guns and tank destroyers, such as the Jagdpanzer 38(t) "Hetzer" and the Marder III.

I am no expert of WW2 tank warfare, but some sources claim significant impact on German military capabilities, for example:

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/czech-tanks-gave-nazis-early-edge/

Case Yellow, the German invasion of France, beginning May 10, 1940, introduced the newly formed German 6th, 7th, and 8th Panzer Divisions to combat. In the forefront of the assault were Czech tanks: PzKw 35(t)s in 6th Panzer Division and PzKw 38(t)s as part of the 7th and 8th Panzer Divisions. A total of 228 PzKw 38(t)s along with the available 35(t)s made up 13 percent of the tanks fielded by the Panzerwaffe that took part in the conquest of France during the summer of 1940. Under General Erwin Rommel, commander of the 7th Panzer Division, the full capabilities of the PzKw 35(t) and 38(t) were showcased in May and June of 1940.


From the northern fringe of the Ardennes Forest, Rommel and his “Phantom Division” drove for the Meuse River on May 12. There his PzKw 38(t)s easily defeated a force of French H35 and AMR 35 tanks. Bursting out of his Meuse River bridgehead on May 14, Rommel drove west, defeating the French 1st Cuirasee (DCR) at the tank battle of Flavion on May 15. The nimble PzKw 38(t)s ran circles around the heavier and better armed French Char B Tanks, disabling the heavier enemy vehicles by firing lethal rounds into the enemy tanks’ ventilator systems and tracks. By May 16, the elimination of France’s only mobile reserve north of Sedan was a fact.

Czechoslovakia was pointed lesson how aggressor can add resources of conquered lands to their own capabilities. Very relevant in current context of deals and agreements around Ukraine.
 
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karolus

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Escalation management, old models and preconceptions of the efficacy and robustness of the Russian military and nuclear blackmail.

The war wasn’t prolonged because the West lacked courage. It was prolonged because it took time for the establishment analysts to unlearn the myth of Russian competence and to calibrate aid without triggering nuclear thresholds.

I do not agree where the current nuclear thresholds are currently believed to be, but that is another issue entirely.
So, you’re thinking a type of normalcy bias—this time with the experts—even in the face of data that challenged long-held assumptions?

That was an accusation often leveled against certain members of the Biden Administration.
 
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dzid

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So, you’re thinking a type of normalcy bias—this time with the experts—even in the face of data that challenged long-held assumptions?

That was an accusation often leveled against certain members of the Biden Administration.
Maddening normalcy bias. That's a powerful motivator not to notice the world changing around you.
 

bjn

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I strongly disagree about Czechoslovakia.
Czechoslovakia had strong army (for small-ish country) and weapons production hub.
In Czechoslovakian betrayal, Germany effortlessly seized a significant amount of military equipment:
2,175 field cannons, 469 tanks, 500 anti-aircraft artillery pieces, 43,000 machine guns, 1,090,000 rifles, and 114,000 pistols.
And ammunition. The Germans also captured approximately one billion rounds of ammunition.

Germany acquired 469 tanks, including 298 LT vz. 35 and 80 LT vz. 38 models. These were integrated into German service as the Panzer 35(t) and Panzer 38(t) and were critical for early campaigns.
Captured military industry was very significant too:
The chassis of Czech tanks, especially the Panzer 38(t), continued to be produced after 1939 and was used as the basis for new German self-propelled guns and tank destroyers, such as the Jagdpanzer 38(t) "Hetzer" and the Marder III.

I am no expert of WW2 tank warfare, but some sources claim significant impact on German military capabilities, for example:

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/czech-tanks-gave-nazis-early-edge/



Czechoslovakia was pointed lesson how aggressor can add resources of conquered lands to their own capabilities. Very relevant in current context of deals and agreements around Ukraine.
My point was that Britain was in no position to do much about NAZI aggression towards Czechoslovakia in 1938, not that the German invasion wasn’t wrong. And yes, the NAZIs did profit from it in their invasion.

This is getting off topic.
 
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FinallyAnAccount

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Apparently Witkoff coached the Russians rather explicitly on how to deal with Trump and paved the way, on a leaked call. (you can expand the entire transcript on the site. There is so much more.

Witkoff ‘coached Russians on how to pitch peace plan to Trump’

1764117950697.png
 

Lt_Storm

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Neill78

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Interesting article about Russia coercing, threatening, bribing foreigners to fight in Ukraine as they struggle to recruit new native troops.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/25/europe/russia-recruits-foreign-fighters-ukraine-intl-cmd

A month or two ago there were stories about African women who won economic development scholarships for training in Russia finding themselves forced to assemble bombs and other military hardware. Some were injured or killed in Ukrainian drone attacks.
 

ramases

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Apparently Witkoff coached the Russians rather explicitly on how to deal with Trump and paved the way, on a leaked call. (you can expand the entire transcript on the site. There is so much more.

Witkoff ‘coached Russians on how to pitch peace plan to Trump’

View attachment 123084

So yeah, Witkoff indeed is as much of a disgrace to his nation as expected; the more interesting question is, how exactly does that call get leaked? Was Witkoff super-clean on OpSec, or did this come from the Russian side?
 

Louis XVI

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So yeah, Witkoff indeed is as much of a disgrace to his nation as expected; the more interesting question is, how exactly does that call get leaked? Was Witkoff super-clean on OpSec, or did this come from the Russian side?

I saw someone on Bluesky (I don’t remember who, so I can’t say how credible they are, but it seemed reasonably plausible to me) arguing that the US government has three factions that are all negotiating separately, and often at cross-purposes, to resolve the Ukraine war: The Vance/Thiel faction (Witkoff), the State Department (Rubio), and Trump (Dan Driscoll). The person suggested that one of the factions, probably Rubio, was sufficiently pissed off at Witkoff to leak the call.