Rocket Report: Russia’s rocket engine predicament; 300th launch to the ISS

North Korea test-fired a powerful new solid rocket motor for its next-generation ICBM.

See full article...

 

[Muon]

Just curious, how would swapping EUS for different new upper stage “eliminate the need for NASA to finish building an expensive new launch tower”?

If you're really interested, take a look at the NASA OIG's report on the status of the Mobile Launcher 2 (PDF) from last year. It reads like a comedy of errors. The tower wasn't originally designed to service the EUS despite being explicitly constructed for SLS and not modified to fit Block 1 like the ML1 was.

If they do swap the ICPS for a Centaur V, but they keep the new SRBs, I wonder if they're going to alter the plans for Gateway?

 

[EllPeaTea]

NASA pre-launch presser for NG-23 launch this weekend.

Spoiler: YouTube embed

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyDPFCcAe6w

 

[1Zach1]

That's the only date I can find publicly posted anywhere (although the mission page itself merely says "NET Fall 2025"), but it seems increasingly dubious. I mean, it's barely more than two weeks away, but there's been no news about the spacecraft being integrated with the launch vehicle?

I know very little about orbital mechanics, but I'm wondering what the advantage of launching at this time would be? According to a Universe magazine article describing the new transfer plan:

So if they launch now it will take nearly 2 years to arrive at Mars, whereas if they waited for the next normal (Hohmann transfer, AIUI) launch window in December 2026, the spacecraft would arrive in... September 2027.

Meanwhile, the spacecraft are exposed to direct solar radiation for an extra year in space; what's the advantage in launching sooner if they don't arrive until approximately the same time?

ESCAPADE is still at Rocket Lab in Long Beach finalizing testing


View: https://x.com/RocketLab/status/1966543509214953775

 

[EllPeaTea]

Highlights of the NG presser.
New expanded version of the Cygnus. 1.5 metres longer, 2,600 pounds more cargo.
Cygnus will have to be temporarily unberthed if still present during next Soyuz docking.
Various experiments:

• zero boiloff prop storage
• biofilm suppression using UV-C
• semiconductor manufacturing
• pharma crystal growth.

11,000 pounds of cargo on this flight.
This mission is named after William McCool, who was on Columbia's final flight.
This is an RTLS flight, landing at LZ-2.

Antares 330 first flight will be in 2026. Next Cygnus flight will be on an F9.
The NG-22 Cygnus (which was damaged in transit) will fly at some point.
NG are still evaluating what repairs are needed for the NG-22 craft.
The zero boiloff experiment will use a see-through tank so it can be observed on station. Using quantum dots to allow for observation of both fluid motion and temperature.
SpaceX able to use a standard fairing as there is no late load on this flight.
NG rep evades when asked if launching on F9 is still profitable. Talks about flexibility with different launch vehicles.
Work on the LC-40 and 39 landing pads underway. Hoping to use them early next year.
Dreamchaser still undergoing testing and verification. No hints given as to when she will fly.
Canadarm has plenty of margin when moving the larger Cygnus.

 

[Old_Fogie_Late_Bloomer]

I seem to recall that in a mention a couple of Rocket reports ago they were supposedly trying to launch again before end of year, but there are doubts.

I've said this before, but maybe if they hadn't dismissed all of their contractors and literally decimated their workforce, that might have been a more attainable goal.

 

[nimelennar]

Dear readers, if everything goes according to plan, four astronauts are less than six months away from traveling around the far side of the Moon and breaking free of low-Earth orbit for the first time in more than 53 years.

"If."

 

[sporkinum]

i am very much against expanding on the thougths of a mass murderer putin...one sentence, thats all.

I am hoping that Ukraine starts targeting the Russian space program. There really is no place they can't reach inside Russia now. A soyuz destroyed on the pad would send a hell of a message.

 

[GlennJohnson]

"humanity's orbital outpost" ? One of two.

 

[Mandella]

Highlights of the NG presser.
New expanded version of the Cygnus. 1.5 metres longer, 2,600 pounds more cargo.
Cygnus will have to be temporarily unberthed if still present during next Soyuz docking.
Various experiments:

• zero boiloff prop storage
• biofilm suppression using UV-C
• semiconductor manufacturing
• pharma crystal growth.

11,000 pounds of cargo on this flight.
This mission is named after William McCool, who was on Columbia's final flight.
This is an RTLS flight, landing at LZ-2.

Antares 330 first flight will be in 2026. Next Cygnus flight will be on an F9.
The NG-22 Cygnus (which was damaged in transit) will fly at some point.
NG are still evaluating what repairs are needed for the NG-22 craft.
The zero boiloff experiment will use a see-through tank so it can be observed on station. Using quantum dots to allow for observation of both fluid motion and temperature.
SpaceX able to use a standard fairing as there is no late load on this flight.
NG rep evades when asked if launching on F9 is still profitable. Talks about flexibility with different launch vehicles.
Work on the LC-40 and 39 landing pads underway. Hoping to use them early next year.
Dreamchaser still undergoing testing and verification. No hints given as to when she will fly.
Canadarm has plenty of margin when moving the larger Cygnus.

Replying to bold -- didn't that happen last year?? Or at least early this one. And they are still "evaluating?"

I know people get tired of hearing SpaceX's "move fast etc" mantra, but heck I think Boeing moves faster than this.

 

[peterford]

A random question I don't remember seeing elsewhere, sorry if I missed it. Did Spacex have to repressurise the Starship payload bay before re-entry?

 

[HiggsForce]

I think it’s just to quantify that a launch will most definitely NOT occur before the NET date. Launches can always move to the right. Schedules usually don’t allow for rockets to fly early because you need to set up all the proper steps to get to launch in the first place. That is all scheduled ahead of time with a minimum set point date. That’s my guess.

There are rare exceptions where a launch occurs before a previously published NET date. SpaceX Crew 10 is one example. As of December 2024 it had been NET late March 2025, but launched on March 14.

 

[DistinctivelyCanuck]

The Escapade launch was NET September 29th, but Eric cast considerable doubt on that a few weeks ago, and said November was more likely. I see on nextspaceflight.com that it's now marked as Q4 2025.

I would think that the 29th is now well off the table given that we've not seen the vehicle on the pad yet. And no one other than SpaceX can roll and launch in a couple of days.

 

[DistinctivelyCanuck]

I am hoping that Ukraine starts targeting the Russian space program. There really is no place they can't reach inside Russia now. A soyuz destroyed on the pad would send a hell of a message.

So, that's an interesting thought: Plesetsk is probably well within range, and there's lots of fun targets that are likely 'highly energetic'
Vostochny on the other hand? probably not: very far to hit... And I'm 99% sure that Kazaks would have an opinion if anything energetic happened at Baikonur...

so: all in? i'd be delighted to see something "happen" at Plesetsk...

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

A random question I don't remember seeing elsewhere, sorry if I missed it. Did Spacex have to repressurise the Starship payload bay before re-entry?

I don't know for certain, but I would guess that yes, they did. They previously stipulated that Starship launches with its payload bay pressurized for structural support reasons. If that applies on the way up, I would think it also applies (if not even more so) on the way back down. Though it would indeed be fun to watch a reentry test with the payload door deliberately 'stuck' open. If that is even hypothetically survivable, that is...

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

So, that's an interesting thought: Plesetsk is probably well within range, and there's lots of fun targets that are likely 'highly energetic'
Vostochny on the other hand? probably not: very far to hit... And I'm 99% sure that Kazaks would have an opinion if anything energetic happened at Baikonur...

so: all in? i'd be delighted to see something "happen" at Plesetsk...

Then again, Ukraine has been focusing on targeting military and critical infrastructure objects that are vital for Russia's continuing conduct of the war. Unlike the Russian war criminal regime, Ukraine doesn't select targets just to hit morale, make a political point, or inflict death and terror upon noncombatants.

 

[Mandella]

A random question I don't remember seeing elsewhere, sorry if I missed it. Did Spacex have to repressurise the Starship payload bay before re-entry?

IIRC yes, and I think they even mentioned it during the last stream.

 

[EllPeaTea]

Replying to bold -- didn't that happen last year?? Or at least early this one. And they are still "evaluating?"

I know people get tired of hearing SpaceX's "move fast etc" mantra, but heck I think Boeing moves faster than this.

The damage to the Cygnus was publicised in early March this year. It was originally scheduled to fly in June.

 

[EllPeaTea]

Weather looking promising for Sunday.

Launch day forecast is looking good for NASA's Northrop Grumman CRS-23 mission!

Weather officials predict a 70% chance of favorable weather conditions at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida for the liftoff of @SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Northrop Grumman Cygnus XL spacecraft carrying more than 11,000 pounds of supplies to the @Space_Station.

Launch is targeted for 6:11pm ET Sept. 14.[/spoiler]

 

[rhgedaly]

In the original concept for SLS, from NASA's 2011 RAC study, the architecture was supposed to support a variety of upper stage options, and the mobile launcher's tower was supposed to have a variable-incline crew access arm and umbilical arms that could be raised and lowered to accommodate this variety. Perfect for the #FlexiblePath marketing of that era.

I guess nobody involved in the RAC study really cared about the practicality of the ground support equipment they were proposing to flatter the Shuttle-derived option in that study, and the variable-incline tower interfaces did not survive initial scrutiny by the ground support engineers.

Just another example of the oft quoted Hadden Rule (from Contact): "First rule in government spending: why build one when you can build two at twice the price?"

 

[blackhawk887]

Then again, Ukraine has been focusing on targeting military and critical infrastructure objects that are vital for Russia's continuing conduct of the war. Unlike the Russian war criminal regime, Ukraine doesn't select targets just to hit morale, make a political point, or inflict death and terror upon noncombatants.

Pretty much anything launching out of Plesetsk is a perfectly legitimate military target. Glonass, for example...

 

[Mandella]

The damage to the Cygnus was publicised in early March this year. It was originally scheduled to fly in June.

It's been a long year, already. Still, point still stands.

 

[eyesoars]

Pretty much anything launching out of Plesetsk is a perfectly legitimate military target. Glonass, for example...

Ukraine has been going after Russia's energy and transportation infrastructure: so far, quite successfully. It looks like Russia's secret weapon, its frigid winters, will be used against it this year, as Ukraine has destroyed a significant portion of its petroleum infrastructure, and gasoline shortages are already widespread. That will very likely put Russia's space program out of operation, even if it isn't or doesn't go bankrupt all by itself this year.

 

[iCowboy]

One wonders if Putin actually believes there could be an international market for Russian engines at this point or if that was a pro forma statement. There are certainly countries that would buy things from Russia, but I’m not sure which, if any, that develop rockets don’t (perhaps unlike in the past) also develop their own engines.

The only one I can think of is North Korea which suddenly launched a kerolox ‘new-type satellite carrier rocket’ last year after several variations of hypergolic launchers. Maybe NK got some Angara technology from the Russians?

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

The only one I can think of is North Korea which suddenly launched a kerolox ‘new-type satellite carrier rocket’ last year after several variations of hypergolic launchers. Maybe NK got some Angara technology from the Russians?

I'm sure Iran would be interested as well. Can't help but wonder what additional compensation, besides money, they are extracting from Russia in exchange for all those Shaheds and whatnot.

 

[EllPeaTea]

It's been a long year, already. Still, point still stands.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there's a disagreement with the supplier. NG don't build that part of the Cygnus (i think it might be coming from Thales Aleniaspace), so there may be some back and forth about what repairs need to be done and who pays for it.

 

[DanNeely]

The current launch tower could not have been used to fill the propellant tanks on EUS. Long ago it was determined that it was cheaper to build a second than to retrofit the current tower to do both (hah!).

Both the Centaur V and Short New Glenn Upper are substantially smaller than the EUS and the existing tower could be modified to fill them.

How do they match up performance wise? The original Delta IV bases upper stage is comically undersized for something as big as the SLS core.

 

[alisonken1]

Putin might actually be that delusional. He also believes there is a market for Russian weapons despite their horrible performance in Ukraine. There is also the chance he is being fed constant lies from subordinates that don't want to take a short walk out of a high window.

In the Navy we call that "taking a long walk off of a short pier".
Swimming is optional depending on outerwear that was given.

 

[Chopfuna]

I wonder what Potemkin-like activities were done at that rocket engine factory so that Putin was impressed with how busy it was, relative to the "non visit" state. (the delusion that Russia is capable of doing anything on large engines is almost so funny as to be worthy of Python-esque jokes about the dead-parrot)

It’s just stunned

 

[alisonken1]

Question: Why do all rocket launches qualify their scheduled dates with NET (No Earlier Than)? The dates are freely moved around, often adjusted outwards, so it isn't like they say NET October and then launch in November without updating them.

I am genuinely curious what is the point of it?

How many people have you seen that would come back and harangue the "it will launch on xxx date"? "Hey - you said it would launch on xxx date!!!!"

By qualifying "NET xxx date" then it does not give the hosers a figleaf to complain about since the NET specifically states "launch on xxx date or later" in more precise terms.
Also, dates are given usually >1year in advance, so they are aspirational until they're not.

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

It’s just stunned

It's pining for the Siberian swamps.

 

[Chopfuna]

"But many of us who were born after the Apollo Moon landings have been waiting for this moment our whole lives. It is almost upon us."

I was working on NASA's Skylab project in Dec 1968 when the Apollo 8 astronauts became the first humans to reach Earth escape velocity, travel to the Moon, enter low lunar orbit (LLO), make ten orbits of the Moon, blast out of LLO, successfully reenter the Earth's atmosphere at 11 km/sec, and splashdown safely in the Pacific Ocean. That was 57 years ago. As you said: A long wait.

I was in Africa with Peace Corps. There was a huge controversy in the Muslim town I lived in. How could 3 unbelievers fly through heaven to the moon? The clerics resolved that by explaining the heaven was above the moon. I had a subscription to Time or Newsweek. The pictures were a huge hit though many didn’t believe it.

 

[butcherg]

Sure, but nothing ever randomly launches earlier. It launches when it was scheduled, or it gets pushed out. The NET part seems completely redundant. I dunno, just seems weird to an external observer like me. I was curious if there was some kind of internal reason for it.

I probably didn't say it well...

Every such campaign-to-an-event I've ever worked had a good-ole-fashioned PERT schedule for the activity leading to the event, complete with an identified critical path. 'NET' means they can't possibly promise to do the event any earlier, as that date is hanging off the end of the critical path of their oh-so-carefully crafted schedule.

If there's variance, you can bet managers and customers know about it; Ars posters, not so much.

 

[LauraW]

Meanwhile, the spacecraft are exposed to direct solar radiation for an extra year in space; what's the advantage in launching sooner if they don't arrive until approximately the same time?

Launching before the politicians have a chance to cancel the whole ESCAPADE program is a possible advantage. (If they're cynical enough.)

 

[Dtiffster]

How do they match up performance wise? The original Delta IV bases upper stage is comically undersized for something as big as the SLS core.

ICPS is big enough though, and centaur V is bigger with a better dry mass fraction. ULA has even talked about a stretched stage with more engines. As is I suspect centaur V is probably smack in the middle of ICPS and EUS in terms of payload to TLI, which is fine as the whole comanifesting payloads thing was just a thin excuse to justify continuing to develop EUS.

NG's upper stage is actually larger than EUS, and probably no worse on dry mass fraction. Isp is a bit lower, but a short version probably has pretty comparable performance to EUS.

 

[archtop]

I am way late to this thread. But why does the rocket exhaust of the Soyuz in the photo look like the weak output of a butane burner rather than the powerful exhaust plume with Mach diamonds that I would expect?

 

[jzdutchman]

"let them ride their broomsticks to space"......someone once said.

 

[Fusion6]

I wonder what Potemkin-like activities were done at that rocket engine factory so that Putin was impressed with how busy it was, relative to the "non visit" state. (the delusion that Russia is capable of doing anything on large engines is almost so funny as to be worthy of Python-esque jokes about the dead-parrot)

did you forget about nasa's reliance on russian rockets for how many years?

 

[Oregano]

did you forget about nasa's reliance on russian rockets for how many years?

That production line was shut down. It can be very difficult to restart something like that. Key people retire, along with their knowledge.

 

[EllPeaTea]

SpaceX have published https://www.spacex.com/launches/sl-17-10 with details of a Starlink launch from California, currently scheduled for about 9am local time on the 13th.

SpaceX is targeting Saturday, September 13 for a Falcon 9 launch of 24 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. You can also watch the webcast on the new X TV app.

This will be the 28th flight for the first stage booster supporting this mission, which previously launched NROL-87, NROL-85, SARah-1, SWOT, Transporter-8, Transporter-9, Transporter-13, NROL-146, Bandwagon-2, NROL-153, NROL-192, and 16 Starlink missions. Following stage separation, the first stage will land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship, which will be stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

There is the possibility that residents of Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties may hear one or more sonic booms during the launch, but what residents experience will depend on weather and other conditions.

The booster being flown is B1071 which last flew on July 31st.

Livestreams:
Space Affairs:

Spoiler: YouTube embed

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUVTFjslnlc

 

[Torbjörn Larsson OM]

(the delusion that Russia is capable of doing anything on large engines is almost so funny as to be worthy of Python-esque jokes about the dead-parrot)

You nailed the Russian Blue to the perch.

Less funny but also pertinent is that the leader of the terrorist Russian state has to circle around the sanction issues - here weaponizable rocket technology - that cuts them off from the global market:

"And in doing so, we must not only meet our own current and future needs but also move actively on world markets and be successful competitors."

It could have been better, but the US tariff issues has opened a slot for EEU and its free trade agreements with China and possibly India. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Eurasian_Economic_Union