Good luck Florida

Mortus

Ars Legatus Legionis
33,229
Moderator
"Nearing the mathematical limit" is not a phrase I want to have appended to describing an oncoming natural disaster.

q8djG5z.jpeg
 

wallinbl

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,808
Subscriptor
We’re having an internal briefing on Milton at 11 AM EDT. I have never seen our event response team this agitated.

I’ll drop what I can that isn’t proprietary.
Even with the slight shift south towards Sarasota instead of Pinellas/Hillsborough, it's going to be very expensive. Dodging Tampa directly (or slightly north of Tampa) will save insurers and people some money, but Manatee/Sarasota counties are still pretty dense, though much of it is newer and better built.
 

wallinbl

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,808
Subscriptor
The parents of a good friend of mine lost basically everything on Siesta Key (a 130 miles or so south of Tampa) to Helene. Whatever is left is gonna get hit again.
It's not 130 miles from Tampa, it's Sarasota. It's nearly directly in the current path of Milton, being just on the south/east side of the track line, which is not the side you want to be on.
 

GaitherBill

Ars Praefectus
3,887
Subscriptor
My 76 year old parents are in a high rise in Naples.

At least this time I convinced my mother to fill the bath tub in case the power goes out.

And the building is “better prepared” this time from 2 years ago. Whatever that means.

I do know all the cars got moved from the parking garage in the basement, inland to a mall parking garage.
 

Anacher

Ars Praefectus
5,685
Subscriptor++
It's not 130 miles from Tampa, it's Sarasota. It's nearly directly in the current path of Milton, being just on the south/east side of the track line, which is not the side you want to be on.

Oof, yeah.

My friend's parents were already staying inland after having their house gutted, so at least they didn't need to worry about evacuating.
 

PhaseShifter

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,169
Subscriptor++
"Nearing the mathematical limit" is not a phrase I want to have appended to describing an oncoming natural disaster.

View attachment 92484
That makes me wonder what the mathematical limits actually are. I mean, it's more than 10% of the way to a vacuum from normal pressure, and an area the size of a small country is experiencing conditions similar to being blown out an airlock.

Maybe at some point, we could get an article on exactly how bad hurricanes can get, and the upper limit of heat dissipation they can provide?
 

KT421

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,056
Subscriptor
That makes me wonder what the mathematical limits actually are. I mean, it's more than 10% of the way to a vacuum from normal pressure, and an area the size of a small country is experiencing conditions similar to being blown out an airlock.

Maybe at some point, we could get an article on exactly how bad hurricanes can get, and the upper limit of heat dissipation they can provide?
Absolutely this.

And how would those limits change with each 1C warmer water temp?
 

whoisit

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,750
Subscriptor
That makes me wonder what the mathematical limits actually are. I mean, it's more than 10% of the way to a vacuum from normal pressure, and an area the size of a small country is


experiencing conditions similar to being blown out an airlock.

Maybe at some point, we could get an article on exactly how bad hurricanes can get, and the upper limit of heat dissipation they can provide?


Upper limits are variable depending on atmospheric conditions and temperature.

https://www.livescience.com/32179-how-strong-can-a-hurricane-get.html
 

Bagheera

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,688
Subscriptor
Why, my brothers in Christ, are the opposing lanes not open too? Jesus, Florida is so bad at all of this.
That tweet was made a few hours after Pinellas county (connected to Tampa via that bridge) issued an evacuation notice for three zones. Traffic was backed up all day yesterday, but it's smooth now. No need yet to open opposing lanes.

Also, the incoming lanes are bringing people and supplies. They need to stage electrical trucks, fire trucks, ambulances, portable bathrooms and showers, large generators, etc. in side the hurricane's path, and they're keeping incoming lanes open for that.
 

Snark218

Ars Legatus Legionis
37,067
Subscriptor
That tweet was made a few hours after Pinellas county (connected to Tampa via that bridge) issued an evacuation notice for three zones. Traffic was backed up all day yesterday, but it's smooth now. No need yet to open opposing lanes.

Also, the incoming lanes are bringing people and supplies. They need to stage electrical trucks, fire trucks, ambulances, portable bathrooms and showers, large generators, etc. in side the hurricane's path, and they're keeping incoming lanes open for that.
Got it. Makes sense. Excessively snarky commentary retracted.
 

1Zach1

Ars Praefectus
3,880
Subscriptor
A quick look at GasBuddy seems to indicate a large number of fuel stations without gas in the Tampa/Central FL area. I had seen that refills had been paused as of yesterday for at least some stations (big caveat there that it was on social media so I can't verify the accuracy). Is that normal pre-hurricane? Not something I've seen/read about before, but possible it's just something that normally happens and I've never noticed it before having never lived in FL.
 

Cranioclast

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,865
Subscriptor++
And there's a few thousand crusty dumbfucks goin "AH AIN SKEEEEERT"
My wife's aunt and cousin turned around because the line for gas was too long. They're in Weeki Wachee, though, so maybe that's less stupid? I don't know Florida. The other two siblings are still trying to convince their mom to go, but it's the dumbest of the three boys that's living with his mom in Florida, of course.

My sister-in-law in Asheville finally got power back. No word on water, though.
 

thrillhouse

Ars Legatus Legionis
18,594
Subscriptor++
Got it. Makes sense. Excessively snarky commentary retracted.
We left last night at 5pm, to a hotel in Orlando. That's normally just over an hour with decent traffic, it took us three. It was bumper to bumper the entire way.

They did open up the left shoulder to traffic.
 

Technarch

Ars Legatus Legionis
15,658
Subscriptor
A quick look at GasBuddy seems to indicate a large number of fuel stations without gas in the Tampa/Central FL area. I had seen that refills had been paused as of yesterday for at least some stations (big caveat there that it was on social media so I can't verify the accuracy). Is that normal pre-hurricane? Not something I've seen/read about before, but possible it's just something that normally happens and I've never noticed it before having never lived in FL.

Standard procedure for Floridians in a hurricane warning are to buy up all the bottled water and suck all the gas stations dry. I witnessed this firsthand in 2019. Can't exactly blame them, though it feels a little bit like hoarding.
 

1Zach1

Ars Praefectus
3,880
Subscriptor
Standard procedure for Floridians in a hurricane warning are to buy up all the bottled water and suck all the gas stations dry. I witnessed this firsthand in 2019. Can't exactly blame them, though it feels a little bit like hoarding.
That I understand, especially with people filling it to evacuate. It's the closed stations/no refills that surprised me, though I suppose that shouldn't surprise me either.
 

Bagheera

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,688
Subscriptor
Got it. Makes sense. Excessively snarky commentary retracted.
No worries. That tweet would make me snarky too if I wasn't living in the area.

Overall, Tampa Bay is doing a really good job with this hurricane. They called for evacuations several days ahead of the storm. They're gathering up as much debris as they can. The mayors are working well with the state. It's about as good as you could expect.

As much as I despise Ron DeSantis, he's also doing a good job to prepare for this hurricane. He's in touch with the mayors and sending resources that we need. There was a dust-up about his communication with Washington, but the state and federal offices are talking and coordinating, regardless of whether governor and president are talking directly.

We're in...well, not in good shape, but the best shape you could hope for.
 

papadage

Ars Legatus Legionis
44,369
Subscriptor++
No real news about landfall from our briefing. The track is trending a bit south, but uncertainty is still high.

1728405158322.png


Milton is still doing regular eyewall replacements for now, so it is still highly cohesive, and will conserve much of its energy before slowing down and expanding. That's not good news.

1728405105120.png
 

SandyTech

Ars Legatus Legionis
15,662
Subscriptor++
That I understand, especially with people filling it to evacuate. It's the closed stations/no refills that surprised me, though I suppose that shouldn't surprise me either.
To be fair, in this particular instance it is important to remember that a lot of fuel for the area comes in through the Port of Tampa Bay which will have its own preparation needs in advance of the storm.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: continuum

Snark218

Ars Legatus Legionis
37,067
Subscriptor
My wife's aunt and cousin turned around because the line for gas was too long. They're in Weeki Wachee, though, so maybe that's less stupid? I don't know Florida. The other two siblings are still trying to convince their mom to go, but it's the dumbest of the three boys that's living with his mom in Florida, of course.

My sister-in-law in Asheville finally got power back. No word on water, though.
To be clear - I have no judgment for folks whose circumstances make evacuation difficult or impossible, just for folks who think not evacuating is some kind of macho statement or proof of toughness.
 

Tijger

Ars Legatus Legionis
14,190
Subscriptor++
To be clear - I have no judgment for folks whose circumstances make evacuation difficult or impossible, just for folks who think not evacuating is some kind of macho statement or proof of toughness.

I read an article, I think it was on the WaPo, where one lady whose house flooded due to Helene was doubtful about evacuating and the local fire chief stating that she should because his men and women would otherwise be risking and possibly losing their lives for her. My initial thought was "The first responders should not (have to) risk their lives for people who willfully ignore evacuation orders/advice"...but I know they will.
 

BigVince

Ars Praefectus
5,086
Subscriptor
This guy, known as "Lieutenant Dan" because he missing a leg and lives on a boat, is gonna ride it out on his very small sailboat in Tampa Bay. Partly i think he has no where to go but when he was offered a hotel room until the storm passed, he insisted that he was gonna ride it out. I hope he makes it but i struggle to understand why?!?!?!?


View: https://www.tiktok.com/@terrenceconcannon/video/7423052549416078623
 

timezon3

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,281
Subscriptor
A quick look at GasBuddy seems to indicate a large number of fuel stations without gas in the Tampa/Central FL area. I had seen that refills had been paused as of yesterday for at least some stations (big caveat there that it was on social media so I can't verify the accuracy). Is that normal pre-hurricane? Not something I've seen/read about before, but possible it's just something that normally happens and I've never noticed it before having never lived in FL.
I've only lived in Orlando for about six years, but this is the first time I've seen gas stations here run out. Many are out; others have huge lines. We drove back from Miami yesterday evening. Gassed up as we were leaving Miami, knowing that would get us home, and also that probably gas would not be had back at home. We're bunkered down here now, only thing left for me to do is set up the garage door brace and maybe fill up some more containers of water.
 

crombie

Ars Legatus Legionis
20,350
Subscriptor
folks who think not evacuating is some kind of macho statement or proof of toughness.

This guy, known as "Lieutenant Dan" because he missing a leg and lives on a boat, is gonna ride it out on his very small sailboat in Tampa Bay.
I see we have an example. :eng101:
 

Technarch

Ars Legatus Legionis
15,658
Subscriptor
This guy, known as "Lieutenant Dan" because he missing a leg and lives on a boat, is gonna ride it out on his very small sailboat in Tampa Bay. Partly i think he has no where to go but when he was offered a hotel room until the storm passed, he insisted that he was gonna ride it out. I hope he makes it but i struggle to understand why?!?!?!?

Feels like suicide with extra steps. This happens, I remember that one old guy who refused to evacuate from Mt. St. Helens 44 years ago. Although Milton is way more immediate and certain than that eruption. I wouldn't care necessarily except for the first responders who are going to have to search for this guy's body.
 

whoisit

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,750
Subscriptor
Feels like suicide with extra steps. This happens, I remember that one old guy who refused to evacuate from Mt. St. Helens 44 years ago. Although Milton is way more immediate and certain than that eruption. I wouldn't care necessarily except for the first responders who are going to have to search for this guy's body.


Harry R. Truman. Had a lodge he ran, and said he'd die there. He did.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Technarch