NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks Week 7: Expert advice on favorites, upsets to consider in confidence pools, office pools



With six teams on bye, there are fewer games than usual in NFL pick ’em pools this week. When you combine that with several big favorites, there aren’t many viable upsets to legitimately pick. The public seems to be trying to speak a few into existence, though, overdoing it on a few underdogs while ignoring a couple other vulnerable favorites. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are here to break down the data and offer up strategy tips for your Week 7 NFL picks.

Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. Check out TeamRankings’ Football Pick ’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a free three-day trial of all their premium football picks.

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Week 7 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy

How We Identify NFL Week 7 Value Picks

This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 7 picks from your pool opponents.

It’s important to note that we’re not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that’s appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks product.

Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

Point Spread: -5.5
Pick Popularity: 65%
Category: Value Favorite

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Point Spread: -5.0
Pick Popularity: 71%
Category: Value Favorite

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Point Spread: -4.0
Pick Popularity: 69%
Category: Value Favorite

Over the first six weeks, there were 16 teams with win odds between 65 and 70 percent, which is where the Chiefs, Saints and Niners all are. The average pick popularity for those favorites has been 87 percent, and only one was below 75 percent in pick popularity.

It’s rare to get one team in this range at such value, let alone three in the same week. So, what’s going on here? The guess is that the public is forcing an upset quota. 

Week 7 features six teams on a bye and five teams favored by more than a touchdown, including three double-digit favorites. Few are picking upsets in those games, so they’re focusing on these games for their upset picks instead.

Add in the prime-time factor, and you end up with value by going against the public here. The Titans just upset the Bills on Monday Night Football; the Seahawks played better than expected against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football; and the Colts won in a blowout a week after nearly beating Baltimore. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost in their last prime-time game, and the Saints and 49ers were on a bye last week. Out of sight, out of mind — and full of value.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

Point Spread: +3.0
Pick Popularity: 15%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contests

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns

Point Spread: +2.0
Pick Popularity: 25%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Contests

The Eagles and Broncos are both value plays as upset picks in weekly contests. They each have better odds to win than the underdogs facing Kansas City, New Orleans, and San Francisco, who are also unpopular.

Denver is facing a Cleveland team that will be without QB Baker Mayfield (left shoulder) and star RBs Nick Chubb (calf) and Kareem Hunt (calf). Going from those three to Case Keenum and D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton is a major downgrade for the Browns.

The Raiders forced the Broncos into four turnovers last week, but they’ve been inconsistent this year. The Eagles are a good running team, and that’s a weakness for the Las Vegas defense. 

Pairing the favorites above with these slight upset plays gives you good bang for the buck in weekly contests.

MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 7 survivor pool advice (link coming soon)

Get All Our Week 7 NFL Picks

Football Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.

From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick ’em pools. In short, to win a pick ’em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.

If you want to learn more about football pick ’em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick ’em pools.

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Good luck in your pools this week!


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