Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

vhoracek

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Looks like debt defaults are way up in Russia this year:

https://fortune.com/2026/05/09/russ...market-risk-putin-bunker-ukraine-war-economy/

Shared because it looks like things are going south quickly in Russia, but I don't really have any intelligent commentary about the substance of the article.
And Russian deputy PM Alexander Novak just said in an interview that forecasted GDP growth for 2026 has been slashed to 0.4 % (previously 1.3 %) , and for 2027 to 1.4 % (previously 2.8 %). Interestingly enough, the forecast still operates with projected oil prices below $60/barrel.

Obligatory quote:
"Economic dynamics are cyclical. After a period of high growth, there is always a correction, often accompanied by structural transformation. This is a normal stage for the economy,"

burninghouse_thisisfine.jpg
 

FranzJoseph

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I remember old documentaries about the lingering aftereffects of war on civilian life during peacetime. So that got me thinking... I can't imagine anyone on bikes or motorcycles would enjoy driving through strands of fiber line at speed even with full protective gear on. If a few strands get wrapped around each other into a sort of braided cable then it could probably amount to a real serious risk across a roadway, and clearly from the photos the cables are already catching and tying around each other. After the war civilians will have to use bikes and vehicles with line-catchers on the front when not inside a fully enclosed car.
In the great tradition of @mhalpern 's speculative drone predictions that we sometimes laughed at, then had to shut up when something similar happened, I predict Ukraine after the war fielding big hexacopters with big combs and motor‑driven spools combing out the fibre out of the environment (and towing it outside the environment, obvs.) ;-)

Though I think the biggest UAV fibre pollution is 95% among the no‑man's land of the semi‑static front "only" a few tens of km wide, which would require really extensive de‑mining and UXO removal anyway, taking years or decades before any agriculture or such can return there even if the war ended today.
 

Cthel

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Tuesday morning's missile/drone attack report from Ukraine:
  • 216x Shahed & Gerbera aerial torpedoes & decoys (192 intercepted/missed/crashed)

Note that one of the numbers in the report is incorrect, as the total of intercepts + hits is 217 out of 216 drones, but there is no way of telling which number is wrong.
 

Tuesday morning's missile/drone attack report from Ukraine:
  • 216x Shahed & Gerbera aerial torpedoes & decoys (192 intercepted/missed/crashed)

Note that one of the numbers in the report is incorrect, as the total of intercepts + hits is 217 out of 216 drones, but there is no way of telling which number is wrong.

Mothership drone?
 

wagnerrp

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In the great tradition of @mhalpern 's speculative drone predictions that we sometimes laughed at, then had to shut up when something similar happened, I predict Ukraine after the war fielding big hexacopters with big combs and motor‑driven spools combing out the fibre out of the environment (and towing it outside the environment, obvs.) ;-)

Though I think the biggest UAV fibre pollution is 95% among the no‑man's land of the semi‑static front "only" a few tens of km wide, which would require really extensive de‑mining and UXO removal anyway, taking years or decades before any agriculture or such can return there even if the war ended today.
If you want totally unhinged, that was TheUlterior.

What happens if it snags? Surely there’s going to be weeds or roots or logs or… bodies in these fields. You’re going to exceed the pull weight of even large industrial multi-rotors. If you’re lucky, you can detach the load before it brings down the drone. Why not make a dragline? Use the drone to carry the comb out, and a ground vehicle (perhaps even a drone) with a winch to drag it back across the field.
 
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Is what worries me though, I hadn't even given full thought to the massive fiber line pollution until I saw those photos above. Even the bare naked fiber cable being utilized still has chemical coatings for environmental resistance and anti-reflection purposes. The coatings based on fluoropolymers would be persistent forever chemicals, and we know by the nests that birds are ingesting the coatings, if not actual particles of the glass/quartz/polymers. The drone pollution, toxicity, and heavy metals are certainly bad I agree, but much of that will end up naturally buried whereas the fiber cable is strung for tens of miles and will persist above ground. A few feet of wiring from a downed drone won't compare to one, maybe even two dozen miles of fiber cable it was attached to it seems like. Especially if the drone was mostly incinerated.

I remember old documentaries about the lingering aftereffects of war on civilian life during peacetime. So that got me thinking... I can't imagine anyone on bikes or motorcycles would enjoy driving through strands of fiber line at speed even with full protective gear on. If a few strands get wrapped around each other into a sort of braided cable then it could probably amount to a real serious risk across a roadway, and clearly from the photos the cables are already catching and tying around each other. After the war civilians will have to use bikes and vehicles with line-catchers on the front when not inside a fully enclosed car.

Exactly because it's "strung up" cleanup will be easier than basically anything else, and as far as contamination with "forever chemicals" goes, I still suspect things like explosives and oil from (burning) vehicles will be a much, much larger source of those materials than the fibers.
 
If you want totally unhinged, that was TheUlterior.

What happens if it snags? Surely there’s going to be weeds or roots or logs or… bodies in these fields. You’re going to exceed the pull weight of even large industrial multi-rotors. If you’re lucky, you can detach the load before it brings down the drone. Why not make a dragline? Use the drone to carry the comb out, and a ground vehicle (perhaps even a drone) with a winch to drag it back across the field.

A tractor with a harrow and a big pole with a hook at the top on the front will do across any un-mined areas, an unmanned tractor with a harrow and a big pole with a hook at the top on the front will do in mined areas. As far as cleanup of fibers goes I think it's trivial compared to the issues of uxo and mines. In many areas cleanup will likely consist of running along one side of a field with a pole and a hook-knife attached to it and then running a harrow or something else to catch and drag the fibers along the other edge of the field further down. Repeat until you reach the other side of the contaminated area.
 

Cthel

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I'm still waiting for details on how the Ukrainian drone-mounted laser system disrupts fiber-optic controlled drones - if it's actual mechanical disruption (correctly tuned pulse laser causing sufficient ablation to shatter the fiber) that seems like the best way of converting residual fiber into oversized quartz particles.

On the other hand, if it's simply coupling into the fiber and burning out the receiver photodiode then that's not going to be much help.
 

Zod

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The Guardian writes about Putin's suggestion:

A good deal of caution and disbelief by the German gov. in these statements. The article goes on to discuss the breaches in the cease fire and other developments.
Schroeder is heavily compromised by his work for Gazprom. It’s unclear how much money he’s has taken from the Russians, but the amount is not insignificant.
 

FranzJoseph

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Exactly because it's "strung up" cleanup will be easier than basically anything else, and as far as contamination with "forever chemicals" goes, I still suspect things like explosives and oil from (burning) vehicles will be a much, much larger source of those materials than the fibers.
There have already been some EU‑funded soil remediation studies around that. And yes, burned out AFVs are a big source of nasty contamination including heavy metals and other stuff. Thankfully, the preliminary study found that this is mostly localised to the closest surroundings of the specific killzone with the wrecks, so further afield the fields could be fine. Of course contaminant migration and others would still have to be studied, but the prelim is somewhat optimistic.

Of course, UXOs and mines are another thing, as is contamination from spent explosives.
 

FranzJoseph

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Schroeder is heavily compromised by his work for Gazprom. It’s unclear how much money he’s has taken from the Russians, but the amount is not insignificant.
Compromised? I think at one point he almost faced German charges of being a Russian agent IIRC (what became of that?), so "compromised" would be quite light a word ;-)
 
Nope.

https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower-101/comment-page-1/#comments

"The day Nagasaki was bombed, the event wasn’t even mentioned in the Supreme War Council. They were busy worrying about the fact the USSR had just entered the war that day and they had no defenses, since they had stripped all their forces to set up the defenses on Kyushu to the coming US invasion. The Russians would have hit Hokkaido by late September and faced no opposition, would have been in Tokyo before the US invaded. THAT was what made them surrender to us, since they knew what the Soviets had done in Germany. And of course they told us it was the A-bombs, which let them off the hook for Nanking and the comfort women and the Railroad of Death and the Bataan Death March, since they have been able to be the ultimate “victim” for the past 77 years. And we bought it, and have spent the past 77 years trying to dominate the world with the threat of using a weapon no one will ever use."
 

KGFish

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From what I've read, the surrender was far more driven by the Russians preparing to invade Japanese territory as well.
For an in-depth discussion: https://apjjf.org/tsuyoshi-hasegawa/2501/article

The nuclear bombs had significant effects, but were functionally not much different from the firebombings that razed some German and Japanese cities.
 

Cthel

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Belarus is having a mobilisation, presumably at the request of Putin.
DeepL Translate said:
Belarus is preparing for war. The authorities will ‘selectively mobilise units’ and prepare them for possible combat operations, says Lukashenko

Meanwhile in Perm the special military operation is going great:
DeepL Translate said:
There were explosions in Perm today as well.
It’s 1,500 km from the DKU; recently, UAVs have been flying there as if it were their own backyard.

We’re waiting for a video from the ‘Let the War End’ group
 

karolus

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Cthel

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World War II would also prove the maxim that no one has ever surrendered to an airplane. That was formally concluded on the deck of the USS Missouri. Similarly, the Ukraine conflict will most likely be settled on terra firma.
Countries have never surrendered to an airplane, but plenty of individual soldiers have surrendered to (unmanned) aircraft, dating back to 1991 (and more relevantly, in the current Russia/Ukraine war)
 

FranzJoseph

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Countries have never surrendered to an airplane, but plenty of individual soldiers have surrendered to (unmanned) aircraft, dating back to 1991 (and more relevantly, in the current Russia/Ukraine war)
And to UGVs, also! Don't forget the glorious UGVs doing their thing...
 

DanNeely

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Exactly because it's "strung up" cleanup will be easier than basically anything else, and as far as contamination with "forever chemicals" goes, I still suspect things like explosives and oil from (burning) vehicles will be a much, much larger source of those materials than the fibers.

It was all "just strung up" a few months ago before the trees and shrubs woke up from winter. They're now hard at work weaving branches through the fiber tangles. A few years from now some of the fibers will be deeply embedded in the wood itself. The ones buried in the lower levels of large bramble thickets (whatever the local flavors are) won't be much better.
 

vhoracek

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Ukrainian drones targeted Russian fuel infrastructure again last night:

- Gas processing plant in Astrakhan (all attacking drones were reportedly shot down, but the "falling debris" sparked a fire on the premises, according to the regional governor). The location shows a substantial heat signature on NASA FIRMS, now presumably extinguished.

- Oil pumping station in Nurlino, Bashkortostan, which controls oil flow to several refineries in southern Russia. One fuel tank is reportedly burning and the location is still showing a heat signature on NASA FIRMS.

- Oil depot in the port of Taman, reportedly hitting three oil tanks. The location also shows a heat signature on NASA FIRMS, now presumably extinguished.
 
This has crossed the line into complete anti-semitic weirdness, we're done here
Palantir CEO Alex Karp was in Ukraine to meet with Zelensky.

Iran supporters (who insist their problem is that Jews exist, not that they are supporting the IRGC in opposition to Trump efforts) who also support Ukraine are wary of his Trump links.

The white supremacists see Karp as supporting Jewish efforts to kill White people (the ones supporting Russia fascinate me, because Ukraine (and Ukrainian support) is a whiter country than Russia, and they joined that with being anti-Wagner, its military arm run by a religious white supremacist who practised some form of Druidry and considered Christianity as a brown religion acting white. It's fascinating that the sea change in this segments support matched Musk's. Initial 2022 Russian support was mostly from known Russian/Iranian supporters like Galloway and the people who think it's appropriate to mourn Khamenei and Nasrallah and protest Maduro's arrest(also Xinjiang deniers). Not to talk about the (now withdrawn) progressive Dem letter people ignore existed urging limited intervention in Ukraine.)

Most of the Ukrainians are Zelensky shills so they talk about developing tech together with US companies and the importance of having friends in Trump's inner circle.

The anti-trumpers are like Thiel and Epstein (do you know "Epstein coalition" is just another "Jews control the world thing"?) somehow, I'm just supposed to accept this new protocols of Zion and accept that replacing the capitalism wheel with Jews is considered progressive.

Palantir has openly supported Ukraine from Day one( same with Microsoft and SpaceX) , processing data and helping with target identification and prioritisation.
 
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Cthel

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Ukrainian drones targeted Russian fuel infrastructure again last night:
[snip]
- Oil depot in the port of Taman, reportedly hitting three oil tanks. The location also shows a heat signature on NASA FIRMS, now presumably extinguished.

Given how Ukraine are consistently able to hit a port 10km from the Kerch Strait bridge, the fact that they haven't lobbed the occasional drone at the bridge just for propaganda value is interesting.

I wonder how big a hole an FP-5 Flamingo would make in the road deck?
 

vhoracek

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Given how Ukraine are consistently able to hit a port 10km from the Kerch Strait bridge, the fact that they haven't lobbed the occasional drone at the bridge just for propaganda value is interesting.

I wonder how big a hole an FP-5 Flamingo would make in the road deck?
Is Russia even using the bridge to supply Crimea and Zaporizhia at the moment? It seems to me that at least over the recent months, Ukrainian mid-range drones have been targeting the logistics over the so-called land bridge (Mariupol, Berdyansk & Melitopol).

A single drone probably wouldn't cause that much damage, and Flamingo seems to have had some teething production issues (IIRC Russia managed to score a hit on one of the production facilities some time ago), so Ukraine is probably saving them for other targets.

That said, if Russian military logistics overland become untenable and they shift to the Kerch bridge again... that'd be the right time to deliver some flamin' hot sanctions.
 

FranzJoseph

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Ukrainian drones targeted Russian fuel infrastructure again last night:

- Oil pumping station in Nurlino, Bashkortostan, which controls oil flow to several refineries in southern Russia. One fuel tank is reportedly burning and the location is still showing a heat signature on NASA FIRMS.

From Russian media (machine translated, I haven't had a coffee yet to translate it manually):

Nurlino station supports the Urals standard of export oil of the Russian Federation

"Nurlino" is the largest linear production and dispatching station (LPDS) as part of "Transneft - Ural". Siberian oil passes through the station in the western direction. It has the largest tank park, as well as pumping stations of three oil pipelines: Ust-Balyk - Almetyevsk (UBKUA) and Tuymazy - Omsk (TON-1). It is important that the LPSD mixes heavy Ural-Povozh oil with low-sulfur Siberian oil - the export grade Urals, which meets international standards.

The station is a key transit and balancing hub connecting Siberian fields with export corridors. Thus, oil flows pass through "Nurlino" to the pipelines "Transneft - Prikamye" and "Transneft - Privolga" (to Samara, and from there - to the "Druzhba" pipeline), to the Baltic pipeline system (for shipments through the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga). Due to the work on the TON-1 pipes, it can also be a balancing hub for oil supplies to the PRC, although it is not directly connected to the VSTO.


EDIT: Source of the above (in Russian)

Of note is that the LPDS Nurlino lies to the west of nearby Ufa refinery, which means that one is partially out of service as well (no other export pipeline from it as far as I can tell):

https://russiaoilpowermap.com
 
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vhoracek

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Russia has launched a multi-stage daytime attack at Ukraine using predominantly Shahed-type drones that are targeting infrastructure in large cities and attempting to overload Ukrainian AD. Some ~250 drones are being tracked, and it's likely they will be followed by ballistic missiles.

 
Nope.

https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower-101/comment-page-1/#comments

"The day Nagasaki was bombed, the event wasn’t even mentioned in the Supreme War Council. They were busy worrying about the fact the USSR had just entered the war that day and they had no defenses, since they had stripped all their forces to set up the defenses on Kyushu to the coming US invasion. The Russians would have hit Hokkaido by late September and faced no opposition, would have been in Tokyo before the US invaded. THAT was what made them surrender to us, since they knew what the Soviets had done in Germany. And of course they told us it was the A-bombs, which let them off the hook for Nanking and the comfort women and the Railroad of Death and the Bataan Death March, since they have been able to be the ultimate “victim” for the past 77 years. And we bought it, and have spent the past 77 years trying to dominate the world with the threat of using a weapon no one will ever use."
Ignore literally everything that blog says. He is not a very good historian, his main talent is telling people on the internet what they want to hear. There is a reason he publishes things on a blog and not in a journal.

It took days to realize the devastation from the bomb. The bombing wasn't mentioned because cities were routinely being bombed. Once the scale of the bombing became clear they called in their own physicists who basically said "Yeah, its theoretically possible. But it may only be a one time thing because it would be hugely expensive.".

Also what navy was Russia going to invade with? How where they going to be supplied? It took over 1000 ships to cross the channel and a one of a kind mobile fuel pipeline along with one of a kind mulberry harbors. To cross 20 miles of channel. Now imagine what it would take to clear 400 miles of open ocean between Vladivostok and Hokkaido.

Air power has its limits, but that blog is a bad source. US Army War college has youtube videos that cover it much better.
 

Zod

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Palantir CEO Alex Karp was in Ukraine to meet with Zelensky.

Iran supporters (who insist their problem is that Jews exist, not that they are supporting the IRGC in opposition to Trump efforts) who also support Ukraine are wary of his Trump links.

The white supremacists see Karp as supporting Jewish efforts to kill White people (the ones supporting Russia fascinate me, because Ukraine (and Ukrainian support) is a whiter country than Russia, and they joined that with being anti-Wagner, its military arm run by a religious white supremacist who practised some form of Druidry and considered Christianity as a brown religion acting white. It's fascinating that the sea change in this segments support matched Musk's. Initial 2022 Russian support was mostly from known Russian/Iranian supporters like Galloway and the people who think it's appropriate to mourn Khamenei and Nasrallah and protest Maduro's arrest(also Xinjiang deniers). Not to talk about the (now withdrawn) progressive Dem letter people ignore existed urging limited intervention in Ukraine.)

Most of the Ukrainians are Zelensky shills so they talk about developing tech together with US companies and the importance of having friends in Trump's inner circle.

The anti-trumpers are like Thiel and Epstein (do you know "Epstein coalition" is just another "Jews control the world thing"?) somehow, I'm just supposed to accept this new protocols of Zion and accept that replacing the capitalism wheel with Jews is considered progressive.

Palantir has openly supported Ukraine from Day one( same with Microsoft and SpaceX) , processing data and helping with target identification and prioritisation.
Eh?
 
Ignore literally everything that blog says. He is not a very good historian, his main talent is telling people on the internet what they want to hear. There is a reason he publishes things on a blog and not in a journal.

It took days to realize the devastation from the bomb. The bombing wasn't mentioned because cities were routinely being bombed. Once the scale of the bombing became clear they called in their own physicists who basically said "Yeah, its theoretically possible. But it may only be a one time thing because it would be hugely expensive.".

Also what navy was Russia going to invade with? How where they going to be supplied? It took over 1000 ships to cross the channel and a one of a kind mobile fuel pipeline along with one of a kind mulberry harbors. To cross 20 miles of channel. Now imagine what it would take to clear 400 miles of open ocean between Vladivostok and Hokkaido.

Air power has its limits, but that blog is a bad source. US Army War college has youtube videos that cover it much better.

that quote is actually from the comment section and not from the blog itself. He himself says this about it:

"I do want to note that current scholarship on the factors that led to Japanese surrender is very complex; whatever simple summary of it you have heard – either that the atomic bombs definitely did or definitely did not lead directly to Japanese surrender – is almost certainly wrong given the complexity of the question. But that complexity was a hard-won product of years of scholarship, based on documents which weren’t translated or available in the 1940s, had the new Air Force wanted to read them. To many in the new Air Force the lesson was simple (and, again, wrong in it simplicity): strategic bombing worked, as it had compelled Japanese surrender without an invasion. Few modern historians, I think, would agree with so simple a lesson. "

I think you are way too harsch here in your judgement
 

vhoracek

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Slovakian Financial Authority closed all its border crossings to Ukraine as of today (1500 UTC+2) until further notice. The press release is very brief and doesn't mention any specific reasons for the action, but it might be somehow related to the Russian drone strikes which also impacted Western Ukraine (including Uzhorod district which borders Slovakia).

 

Cthel

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Russia claims a successful RS-28 ICBM test launch.



If true, that's the first one, not counting the first launch that only went a few dozen kilometers but was declared a success.

Which is awkward, because the system officially entered combat service 3 years ago...

I wonder how Ukraine's strikes on missile component production are affecting the build rate (and quality)?
 

karolus

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What's interesting about the RS-28 is that it's liquid fueled, which appears to be a step back. Most liquid fueled storable propellant rockets use highly toxic chemicals that add extra wrinkles to handling and maintenance. Is Russia unable to produce reliable solid propellant in quantity?
 

FranzJoseph

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Texty.org.ua has published another nice piece of multimedia web journalism on how one 17‑story Kyiv apartment building survived without heat and power nearly 40 days from early January:

https://texty.org.ua/projects/11742..._without_heat_or_light_during_the_harsh_cold/

Another text from Yale highlights Ukraine's growing solar and wind generation, especially in dispersed micro‑grids and resilient solar (a single bomb doesn't do much outside of its AoE* when striking even a big solar farm):

https://e360.yale.edu/features/ukraine-war-renewable-energy

Some pretty impressive figures so far, especially for a cash‑strapped country at war!

* Area of Effect, which could be surprisingly "small" for impact‑fused glide bombs that would partially burrow into the soil first purely from their kinetic energy and mass – any shrapnel thrown sky‑high will lose lots of its velocity and the overpressure drops by around 1/r-1 to 1/r-1.45 in an open field even for a point of impact detonation, even without taking burrowing and cratering into account first. Just replace some panel rows like after hail events and some row regulators and that's about it, I guess, unless they hit the connecting point to the grid with the big regulators.
 
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vhoracek

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FranzJoseph

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What's interesting about the RS-28 is that it's liquid fueled, which appears to be a step back. Most liquid fueled storable propellant rockets use highly toxic chemicals that add extra wrinkles to handling and maintenance. Is Russia unable to produce reliable solid propellant in quantity?
For that big ICBM size and mass? I doubt that – that's around 5/4 of the mass of Titan II, and much heavier than most solid fuelled ICBMs as far as I can tell.

And kerolox or methalox rockets aren't exactly storable propellants, unlike dinitrogen tetroxide and UDMH. Even if both are pretty much the "devil's brew" if any of those very nasty hypergols leak…

See the Titan II disaster, or any of the Soviet disasters with massive hypergol rockets.
 

Cthel

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For that big ICBM size and mass? I doubt that – that's around 5/4 of the mass of Titan II, and much heavier than most solid fuelled ICBMs as far as I can tell.

And kerolox or methalox rockets aren't exactly storable propellants, unlike dinitrogen tetroxide and UDMH. Even if both are pretty much the "devil's brew" if any of those very nasty hypergols leak…

See the Titan II disaster, or any of the Soviet disasters with massive hypergol rockets.
Additionally, massive solid rocket motors are less shelf-stable than their smaller counterparts, as they start to slump under their own weight (which can leads to cracking and/or detatching from the casing - both of which turn your solid rocket motor into a pipe bomb)

There's also the logistical challenge in moving a 200-tonne SRB from the factory to the launch silo - one advantage of liquid fuelled rockets is you can move them empty and only fuel them once they're in position.

If you are absolutely set on building an ICBM with a 10-tonne throw weight (for whatever reason), it's not impossible that liquid fuelled designs offer better lifetime costs
 

karolus

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For that big ICBM size and mass? I doubt that – that's around 5/4 of the mass of Titan II, and much heavier than most solid fuelled ICBMs as far as I can tell.

And kerolox or methalox rockets aren't exactly storable propellants, unlike dinitrogen tetroxide and UDMH. Even if both are pretty much the "devil's brew" if any of those very nasty hypergols leak…

See the Titan II disaster, or any of the Soviet disasters with massive hypergol rockets.
That brings its own issues. Kerolox can't be fueled that quickly—and needs dedicated facilities. Sure, it may be a bit more advanced than the original R-7 setup, but requires continual maintenance, especially regarding cryogenics. A propellant valve sticking at an inopportune time could seriously hamper operations and readiness.
 

FranzJoseph

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(…)

If you are absolutely set on building an ICBM with a 10-tonne throw weight (for whatever reason), it's not impossible that liquid fuelled designs offer better lifetime costs
Unless you are a Russian engineer building an ICBM with a 10‑tonne boilerplate throw weight (for propaganda and window fall accident avoidance reasons), whereas a "goode olde" N2O4+UDMH beast might be the best option to avoid your own inevitable launch to death from a sub‑basement window, three times (plus the "goode olde" 'the deceased committed suicide by shooting himself in the neck from a shotgun from behind'…)