Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

Raptor

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pauli

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eady-2024-earliest-armsmaker-says-2023-01-15/
For Rheinmetall, repairing the tanks it has in stock - at least 22 Leopard 2 tanks and 88 Leopard 1 tanks - would cost several hundred million euros, Papperger told Bild.

"The vehicles must be completely dismantled and rebuilt," he added.

The firm also has 100 Marder vehicles, Papperger said, but these would also need repairs taking seven to eight months before they could be used.
Still, critics say German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ruling SPD are too slow, waiting for allies to act first instead of assuming Germany's responsibility as the Western power closest to Ukraine.

Germany's defence industry is banned by law from producing tanks for stock-keeping. Even if production were ramped up, experts say it could take at least two years for new tanks to be ready for use.

With behavior like we've been seeing, Germany is a much less attractive supplier than in the past. South Korea is happy to step up and take their place, though...
 
I suppose Iran doesn't have many other options, and at this point most anything would be an upgrade - but after the last year, I've got to imagine there's not much market demand for Russian hardware anymore.
The best time to unfuck our relationship with Iran was in the past, but they can’t feel great about tying themselves to the anchor that is modern Russia, right? I hope (although it is obviously a long shot) that we’re making some overtures toward Iran right now.

I mean if we expected Europe to put their energy situation in a somewhat risky state to mess with Russia’s economy, why can’t the US also make a concession here?
 
The best time to unfuck our relationship with Iran was in the past, but they can’t feel great about tying themselves to the anchor that is modern Russia, right? I hope (although it is obviously a long shot) that we’re making some overtures toward Iran right now.

I mean if we expected Europe to put their energy situation in a somewhat risky state to mess with Russia’s economy, why can’t the US also make a concession here?

The problem is Trump. Well, the Republican party in general, but Trump in particular.

There is no reason for Iran to trust any deal the US makes with them, when they know that we will happily elect some shitbag who will unilaterally withdraw from it if he feels like it. That's not something that you can "make a concession" to overcome; that's a generation's worth of good will lost.

These days, every 4 years the US citizenry flips a coin and the world holds its breath. This is not a viable way to build relationships with other countries. When basic elements of foreign policy like "I'll keep my word" are on the table in an election, trusting such a nation becomes impossible.
 
D

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China's position WRT Taiwan is less stupid. Substantially so. They always claimed the right to control Taiwan and that it was an inseparable part of China. But in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia formally agreed to Ukraine being an independent state. They even gave them Crimea, only later to steal it back. I wish Chinese leaders would read this and understand they don't have to support Russia's murderous policy because they want Taiwan back.
Not only in the dissolution of the USSR, but Ukraine was a founding member of the UN, and during USSR times always had its own permanent rep in the UN General Assembly. Obviously, the rep always voted with the USSR party line, and this was used to expand the USSR's influence;
still, Russia never objected to it in post-USSR times, which demonstrates their acceptance of Ukraine as a country.
 
D

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Indeed. Or 2016 with a ton of disaffected Bernie zealots. Way, way too much treating politicians like sports heroes for my taste. They are civil servants, administrators whose best attribute should be to be good at hiring good administrators. Or should be. Boring, in other words. I recognize this isn't how things are though, and wish we had another rock star like candidate Obama was to keep Trump or Desantis out (obviously using examples from my US-centric view.)
ROFL. Just shows you how perspective changes things. Obama was a middling community organizer who never scaled, and Bill Clinton a weak-charactered wuss (never inhaled. Sure) who never had guts to do anything despite his rep as a policy wonk.
Last US president who was a rock star was JFK, and he very nearly got you involved in nuclear war, so I don't think that worked very well.

You'd probably be better off with a change to a parliamentary Westminster-type system.
{/offtopic}
 
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wco81

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ROFL. Just shows you how perspective changes things. Obama was a middling community organizer who never scaled, and Bill Clinton a weak-charactered wuss (never inhaled. Sure) who never had guts to do anything despite his rep as a policy wonk.
Last US president who was a rock star was JFK, and he very nearly got you involved in nuclear war, so I don't think that worked very well.

You'd probably be better off with a change to a parliamentary Westminster-type system.
{/offtopic}
There are so many things which could be improved about the US system.

But most people, including a lot of Democrats, would rather cling to that 18th century rag, which has been canonized in the schools here as God's gift to democracy.

When instead, it was shaped from politically dubious compromises made with slaveowners.
 
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D

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The problem is Trump. Well, the Republican party in general, but Trump in particular.

There is no reason for Iran to trust any deal the US makes with them, when they know that we will happily elect some shitbag who will unilaterally withdraw from it if he feels like it. That's not something that you can "make a concession" to overcome; that's a generation's worth of good will lost.

These days, every 4 years the US citizenry flips a coin and the world holds its breath. This is not a viable way to build relationships with other countries. When basic elements of foreign policy like "I'll keep my word" are on the table in an election, trusting such a nation becomes impossible.
FWIW, specifically re the Iran treaty, Biden isn't interested either. The Iranians broke existing agreements too many times.
https://newrepublic.com/post/169664/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-dead
 
ROFL. Just shows you how perspective changes things. Obama was a middling community organizer who never scaled, and Bill Clinton a weak-charactered wuss (never inhaled. Sure) who never had guts to do anything despite his rep as a policy wonk.
Last US president who was a rock star was JFK, and he very nearly got you involved in nuclear war, so I don't think that worked very well.

You'd probably be better off with a change to a parliamentary Westminster-type system.
{/offtopic}
I am responding with an argument-less post just to

  • Reinforce the </off topic> tag.
  • Note the tendency for this thread to be derailed.
  • Note the tendency for this topic to generate long, spiraling derails.
  • Acknowledged my part in kicking off this tangent by focusing on the US/Iran situation which is too tied to US partisan politics for this thread.
Edit:

We could I guess use

https://meincmagazine.com/civis/threa...ian-war-and-the-bigger-picture.1483176/page-3
For discussion of trying to peel off Iran, or one of the various US electoral threads for the other topic (although I don’t know that there’s much to say about either anyway).
 
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D

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Or Nader voters in 2000. Gore's just the same! A million Iraqi's would posthumously like to disagree. But I'm not bitter or anything.
I will counter that 2000 was a fundamentally different time.

1. Ralph Nader had a long history as a successful human rights and environmental activist who had repeatedly turned down offers from various parties to run for president. By his own admission, his run in 2000 was intended as a way to get the eventual Democratic winner to pay attention to progressive issues, since Clinton's administration had outright ignored him. You know, maybe Clinton shouldn't have done that. (Hubris all around, but let's be real, Nader's fight is different than Bernie's, for this reason alone)
2. There is nobody in the public space in 1999/2000 in that runup that could have told you that the difference in outcomes was going to be the stupidest war for the US since Vietnam. I was there at the protests (and I mean both the 2000 election protests in Tallahassee, and the stupid GOP encirclement of the capitol, and the lead-up to the Iraq war).
3. anyone that failed to learn the lesson of what happened in that time really is culpable after. Nader and that era of people legitimately believed that we were at the end of history, and that we would move forward from there. 9/11 and the conservative reactionary movement were unthinkable. you can even see it here if you were to go back and read old Soap Box threads.

This is a pretty big tangent, but I wanted to make clear that Nader and Sanders might have had the same conceptual progressive adherents for their time, the background understanding of the world is dramatically different.
 
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Could you all kindly shut the fuck up about the history of US politics?
Sorry about that. I got there because of certain flashbacks.

Things like "Republican house won't mess with Ukraine help", "Trump/DeSantis 2024 won't cut off aid" really have that 2000 "Bush isn't that bad", "PNAC lunatics won't be running the asylum" or "Trump will be more presidential" stench to them. But Iraq DID get invaded, Zelynsky WAS blackmailed, Kurds DID get shafted. Appealing to some imaginary moderate wing of the Republican party, or appealing to the better nature of American conservatives in general is gobsmackingly naive. I've already seen "they can't be worse than Biden on Ukraine amirite" being circulated and fuck a duck, it scares the shit out of me.

But again, sorry.
 
The UK has formally announced the transfer of a dozen Challenger II tanks to Ukraine, with training to begin immediately in the UK and Germany.

Fucking finally.

Old Soviet tanks in Iraq didn’t seem to have much of a chance against these guys, right? I guess we’ll find out if the local models are any better than the export models.
 

philmes

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The UK has formally announced the transfer of a dozen Challenger II tanks to Ukraine, with training to begin immediately in the UK and Germany.

Fucking finally.
I mentioned that on the previous page, but it got lost in the stupid constitution noise. We're also sending 8 AS90's, with another 22 to follow on.

12 Chally 2's won't make a big difference on their own, but hopefully it'll get the rest of NATO to follow on.
 
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I don't understand why the US is being stingy with the Bradleys. We have over 4,000 of the damn things, and most of them are of the older ODS variety we've recently decided isn't a large enough "provocation" to worry about. It's not like we'd be using these ever again, with newer, better variants now available in large numbers. Right now, we're paying god knows how much money every year to store these things, keep them in usable condition, maintain them, etc. when they are literal garage queens (y'know, all the shit the Russians don't do with their deep stocks in favor of graft). If we just go ahead and ship them all (the ODS variant, I mean) over to Ukraine, they'd get a chance to fulfill their lives' purpose (blowing up Russians), and we would have a greatly reduced maintenance bill for the lives of these vehicles. But no, our government and media insist on reporting all aid in terms of dollars, so they would get listed at their original procurement cost, allowing the fascists on the right to bitch and moan about the cost of preserving civilization, when it would be more accurate to describe such aid as the cost savings to the US it actually is. After all, as Perun said, it's not like we can pay teachers and sanitation workers in 20-year-old infantry fighting vehicles (though that would be pretty rad).
 

VanillaG

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I don't understand why the US is being stingy with the Bradleys. We have over 4,000 of the damn things, and most of them are of the older ODS variety we've recently decided isn't a large enough "provocation" to worry about. It's not like we'd be using these ever again, with newer, better variants now available in large numbers. Right now, we're paying god knows how much money every year to store these things, keep them in usable condition, maintain them, etc. when they are literal garage queens (y'know, all the shit the Russians don't do with their deep stocks in favor of graft). If we just go ahead and ship them all (the ODS variant, I mean) over to Ukraine, they'd get a chance to fulfill their lives' purpose (blowing up Russians), and we would have a greatly reduced maintenance bill for the lives of these vehicles. But no, our government and media insist on reporting all aid in terms of dollars, so they would get listed at their original procurement cost, allowing the fascists on the right to bitch and moan about the cost of preserving civilization, when it would be more accurate to describe such aid as the cost savings to the US it actually is. After all, as Perun said, it's not like we can pay teachers and sanitation workers in 20-year-old infantry fighting vehicles (though that would be pretty rad).
The simple answer is logistics and training. Here is an article about the first Ukrainian unit that is getting the Bradleys and they mention it is an all volunteer (no conscripts) unit. It is going to take some time to get those guys trained up on them and then you need to make a decision on if you stick them on the front or use them train up additional units. I doubt that most of the ones in storage are in a drive away and start shooting bad guys condition. Most likely you are going to need to strip them out of National Guard units and back fill those units with the equipment being turned in by active units upgrading to the M2A4. Then you can add in the time to transport them from the US to Europe. Not saying that they can't go faster but it is a pretty complex operation.
 
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The simple answer is logistics and training. Here is an article about the first Ukrainian unit that is getting the Bradleys and they mention it is an all volunteer (no conscripts) unit. It is going to take some time to get those guys trained up on them and then you need to make a decision on if you stick them on the front or use them train up additional units. I doubt that most of the ones in storage are in a drive away and start shooting bad guys condition. Most likely you are going to need to strip them out of National Guard units and back fill those units with the equipment being turned in by active units upgrading to the M2A4. Then you can add in the time to transport them from the US to Europe. Not saying that they can't go faster but it is a pretty complex operation.
I understand the logistics and time involved. I'm not complaining about that. I'm complaining about the numbers. Rather than promising 50 and setting up the training infrastructure for the AFU, better to promise 2000 and do the same training, so the Ukrainians can turn around and definitely start training their countrymen. If they know from the outset that 2000 of the things are waiting in the wings, the AFU can better prioritize which of the 457 new equipment types they're getting they want to focus their training resources on. Meanwhile, we can bring Ukrainian maintenance crews over to do the hands-on work of getting the stuff in cold storage up and running again, so they can learn how to maintain the things while also providing a useful service directly in furtherance of the war effort. With so many of them to bring back up to snuff, you could probably rotate maintenance crews out several times, training each one, before they run out of Bradleys to rework. These things aren't HIMARS launchers. They don't shoot and scoot from well behind the front lines. They will get blown up by the Russians over time, and they will need more. Rather than 10, 20, or 50 of each type from a half dozen countries, it would be much better to consolidate and coordinate the aid such that the AFU can focus on one equipment type. Give them what they need to win and win quickly, rather than trickle out aid in fits and starts, only keeping Ukraine alive but the war at a standstill. I've mentioned similar things in the past here with the Abrhams: we've sold over 400 of these things to the Saudis over the years, so I don't know why we'd be concerned with Ukraine having a similar number, given the situation. It just seems weird to me that, after spending decades arming the Middle East to the teeth to keep them on "our side" why we'd all of a sudden be hinky about arming a country which (nominally, at least) shares the values of the West, which the KSA certainly does not.
 
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I agree that it would be nice to see more open progress on this front, but where on the progression of “let’s send 50 for them to try out” to “let’s send 2000” seems like the sort of thing that might be a little behind-closed-doorsy, right?

Hypothetically if we were planning on sending 2000 we could just tell Ukraine, and then they’d have enough info to make the “send these guys up or keep them back as trainers” decision.

Although we should be careful about this, there’s a very real risk that retired National Guard IFVs destroying too many Soviet tanks will cause all their arms designers to spin in their graves to an extent that would cause serious environmental harm.
 

Pont

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Bradleys are a pretty f'ing big deal. The Ukrainians have been training in Combined Arms doctrine since the Crimean invasion, and it's an area where Russia is less competent.

The optics and combined arms capability of the Bradleys are a pretty damn big game-changer, as the video above pointed out. If you didn't watch it, the Bradley can use its range finder + GPS to automatically pinpoint an enemy to be attacked by another system, such as artillery. Thus, the Bradley can get enemy positions killed without actually firing to expose its position.

Bradleys overmatch pretty much everything on the Russian side except MBTs, are a credible threat to those MBTs via missiles, and can potentially be configured for anti-air duty vs. low-flying aircraft. They can utterly shut down human wave attacks.

Basically, the mere presence of Bradleys in an area of operation significantly fucks with Russian strategy and tactics. Even a trickle of them are therefore a big deal.
 
Orders for fighter jets are placed years in advance during peacetime, and during a war delivery would probably be scheduled even later as Russia will need every aircraft it can produce. Presumably these sales are contingent on overcoming whatever supply issues Russia has in the years ahead.

View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1615038914850611202?cxt=HHwWhIDTocLV4uksAAAA


Seems I'm incorrect and they're transferring their existing aircraft mid-war which is interesting. Apparently they don't think they'll need them.
 

goates

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Kilkenny

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I posted a link earlier that points out they have a number of Su-35s that were originally built for Egypt. Egypt didn't take them due to pressure from the US, so those air frames have been sitting around in Russia.
I remember that. It does become interesting that Russia thinks those Su-35s are more valuable as barter than putting them to use in-theatre. Are they more pilot constrained than airframe? Or some other aspect of logistics? Or they think with the current state of air defense, they need cruise missiles more than another two squadrons of air superiority/interceptor aircraft that can't overfly Ukrainian controlled soil?
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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I remember that. It does become interesting that Russia thinks those Su-35s are more valuable as barter than putting them to use in-theatre. Are they more pilot constrained than airframe? Or some other aspect of logistics? Or they think with the current state of air defense, they need cruise missiles more than another two squadrons of air superiority/interceptor aircraft that can't overfly Ukrainian controlled soil?
Or did Iran threaten to cut off the flow of cheap drones?
 

Shavano

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The simple answer is logistics and training. Here is an article about the first Ukrainian unit that is getting the Bradleys and they mention it is an all volunteer (no conscripts) unit. It is going to take some time to get those guys trained up on them and then you need to make a decision on if you stick them on the front or use them train up additional units. I doubt that most of the ones in storage are in a drive away and start shooting bad guys condition. Most likely you are going to need to strip them out of National Guard units and back fill those units with the equipment being turned in by active units upgrading to the M2A4. Then you can add in the time to transport them from the US to Europe. Not saying that they can't go faster but it is a pretty complex operation.
Our National Guard needs armored vehicles? Really? OK, a few for training but seriously, considering the threats faced in the United States and the weapons we have at our disposal to deal with them, we could send them all as fast as we could load them on transports and who would miss them?
 

Shavano

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I remember that. It does become interesting that Russia thinks those Su-35s are more valuable as barter than putting them to use in-theatre. Are they more pilot constrained than airframe? Or some other aspect of logistics? Or they think with the current state of air defense, they need cruise missiles more than another two squadrons of air superiority/interceptor aircraft that can't overfly Ukrainian controlled soil?
Possibly they think they'd be shot down too quickly.
 

goates

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I remember that. It does become interesting that Russia thinks those Su-35s are more valuable as barter than putting them to use in-theatre. Are they more pilot constrained than airframe? Or some other aspect of logistics? Or they think with the current state of air defense, they need cruise missiles more than another two squadrons of air superiority/interceptor aircraft that can't overfly Ukrainian controlled soil?
From what I’ve read, the main issues are (lack of) training and poor coordination with the ground troops. This has lead to the Russians not being able to establish dominance in the air due to failing in knocking out Ukraine’s air defences, as well as being worried about getting shot down by their own air defences. The Russians do have anti-radar missiles, but don’t seem to have put nearly as much effort into SEAD as the US has. So they mostly keep their aircraft out of Ukrainian airspace and lob air-to-air and cruise missions into Ukraine. The aircraft themselves are much better than what Ukraine has, so I don’t this is as much of a limitation.
 

goates

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Possibly they think they'd be shot down too quickly.
Most likely at this point. They failed to destroy Ukraine’s air defences in the beginning and seem more interested these days in destroying infrastructure rather than SAM batteries and the Ukrainian Air Force. With all of the cruise missiles and drones Russia has launched, Ukraine shouldn’t really have much more than machine guns to fire back with.