Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

[m0nckywrench]

Ukraine is technically in Europe but so easternized it may as well not be. Culture is all.

The US etc have no strategic reason to specifically declare a strict limit because that is bad strategy. Strategic ambiguity is vital because when outcomes are known instead of guessed the side with the initiative (Russia) can route around obstacles. NATO/cultural "Europe"/EU lacks credible strategic ambiguity.

NATOs real strategic options are not ambiguous.

Putin knows:
NATO cannot risk escalation.
NATO does not have sufficient power projection and geography matters.
NATO does not have time to build effective Ukrainian deterrence.
NATO does not have popular support for war.
NATO relies on US logistics (logistics are everything) diverted elsewhere and units not stationed in nor quickly able to deploy that far away.
NATO was never configured for deep operations far from the English Channel.
NATO in 2022 is a shambling distracted ghost of 1990 NATO.

Assaulting Kiev would be a whole different category than encroaching in the east where all those Russian sympathizers live.

Cutting off urban centers of gravity can reduce necessity for ground assault. Putin will have considered multiple options including taking sufficient territory to render Ukraine economically unviable.

Shock assaults with enough momentum might capture Kiev even with ongoing light local resistance. (Russia's dealt with such before, see Ukrainian post-WWII resitance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army ).

Kyiv need no be fully secured to be out of the game early and could be cut off long before it's captured. Russia could cut off eastern and western Kyiv by destroying the bridges and any ferries, pontoon bridges etc it can strike. Each half of Kyiv has its back to the river. Heavy forces won't be able to move between them so resupply of the eastern side will be problematic. There is no room to maneuver.

 

[Deleted member 30114]

Ukraine is technically in Europe but so easternized it may as well not be. Culture is all.

The US etc have no strategic reason to specifically declare a strict limit because that is bad strategy. Strategic ambiguity is vital because when outcomes are known instead of guessed the side with the initiative (Russia) can route around obstacles. NATO/cultural "Europe"/EU lacks credible strategic ambiguity.

NATOs real strategic options are not ambiguous.

Putin knows:
NATO cannot risk escalation.
NATO does not have sufficient power projection and geography matters.
NATO does not have time to build effective Ukrainian deterrence.
NATO does not have popular support for war.
NATO relies on US logistics (logistics are everything) diverted elsewhere and units not stationed in nor quickly able to deploy that far away.
NATO was never configured for deep operations far from the English Channel.
NATO in 2022 is a shambling distracted ghost of 1990 NATO.

Assaulting Kiev would be a whole different category than encroaching in the east where all those Russian sympathizers live.

Cutting off urban centers of gravity can reduce necessity for ground assault. Putin will have considered multiple options including taking sufficient territory to render Ukraine economically unviable.

Shock assaults with enough momentum might capture Kiev even with ongoing light local resistance. (Russia's dealt with such before, see Ukrainian post-WWII resitance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army ).

Kyiv need no be fully secured to be out of the game early and could be cut off long before it's captured. Russia could cut off eastern and western Kyiv by destroying the bridges and any ferries, pontoon bridges etc it can strike. Each half of Kyiv has its back to the river. Heavy forces won't be able to move between them so resupply of the eastern side will be problematic. There is no room to maneuver.

NATO can afford all escalation it wants. NATO won't be fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainians will. Ukrainian Insurgent Army in the fifties had no armor, artillery nor anti-aircraft weapons, and no urban base. Ukrainian Army today has. What's more important, Germany doesn't want the whole Ukraine annexed by Russia, just the Left Bank, and the US accepted Ukraine independence back in 1991, however grudgingly. So both the important players think Ukraine can defend herself. That's why Putin's bluff was called finally.

 

[Psychophant]

Nice to see MSNBC spread propaganda for the nazis in Ukraine. Sharing footage of the Azov battalion training civilians with weapons(look at the patch on uniform).

https://youtu.be/Ql0VpYXZn58?t=155

the regiment is identifiable by the Nazi Wolfsangel logo on their uniforms

Andriy Biletsky, the Azov Batallion’s first commander and later a National Corps parliamentarian, previously led the neo-Nazi paramilitary organisation “Patriot of Ukraine,” and once stated in 2010 that it was the Ukrainian nation’s mission to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade… against Semite-led Untermenschen [subhumans].”

https://www.vice.com/en/article/3ab7dw/ ... -far-right

Amazing how lazy the corporate media can be.

 

[dio82]

Monkeywrench is absolutely spot on on the strategic aspect for NATO.

Containment is absolutely the best and winning strategy for NATO. As much as I emotionally want to see action like a no-fly zone being imposed by NATO, my strategic mind realises that there are way too many high risk downsides with little to strategic gain to be had.

Having ambiguity and many avenues for action open is better than committing too early and to be outmanoeuvred by the side with initiative (Russia).

On the other hand we also have to realise that this play is for Putin all about power and control. As Lavrov (Russia's foreign minister) nicely puts it, they shit on sanctions and don't care about economic hardship for the population. For them, personally and as an institution, there is little to fear from hard sanctions.

It appears that Putin fears that Ukraine as a country and society is drifting too rapidly away from core Russian values of shittyness, oppression and corruption. If he doesn't act now he will face even more blowback from the Ukrainian population and the Ukrainian population forming an identity that is strictly grounded in being anti-Russian.

These are strictly ideological motivations on Putin's side (as he has documented in his opinion letter on the future of Russia and Ukraine), which are highly dangerous because you can't reason with them.

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

It appears that Putin fears that Ukraine as a country and society is drifting too rapidly away from core Russian values of shittyness, oppression and corruption. If he doesn't act now he will face even more blowback from the Ukrainian population and the Ukrainian population forming an identity that is strictly grounded in being anti-Russian.

These are strictly ideological motivations on Putin's side (as he has documented in his opinion letter on the future of Russia and Ukraine), which are highly dangerous because you can't reason with them.

This isn't the first Ukrainian gig in getting rid of Russian influence. The Ukrainian identity has always been kind of strong, especially surrounding Kyiv. Look at their plights during/after WW1, but the Russians wanted nothing of it.

Russia made a huge mistake during and after Maidan. If they had left Ukraine be, they'd be far closer to Russia today.

I want to comment on the nazi stuff also in Ukraine, and to be honest, after talking to many Ukrainians, their families and some history, i can understand why many could sympathize, although not for the reasons we think. ( I was married to an Ukrainian woman)

I was speaking to some grandmothers as i do love history in general, and they told me straight that they didn't really hate the Germans when they invaded in WW2 as they treated the local populace a lot better than what the Russians did. I remember one told that the Russians had burned their village and both taken and shot her cows (It was war) She was a teenager and had nothing and walked on a road to some other village where she encountered German troops. She was given food, some supplies and a few soldiers helped her to another cow that was with them that they gave her. They didn't touch her, was friendly etc, which was in stark contrast to what the Russians did.

It's some years ago, but my god the food she made was from another level. Never ever tasted anything like it before, it was heaven.

A lot of Ukrainians will tell you such stories. I am not sure even they knew what a Nazi was, and i think it didn't matter as life in general was at a level before living in a cave. (Like 40 percent of Norwegians also in many areas occupied by the Germans also sympathized at that point. Quisling was Norwegian after all)

 

[tb12939]

As Lavrov (Russia's foreign minister) nicely puts it, they shit on sanctions and don't care about economic hardship for the population. For them, personally and as an institution, there is little to fear from hard sanctions.

Depends on how you define hard - there's lots of options if there's the will.

Identify and seize ruling class assets held in other countries. Kick them out of SWIFT. Invest to replace their fossil exports with alternatives and you starve the beast of resources over the long term. Introduce a STEM-oriented visa scheme to encourage on-going brain drain. Close all value-add russia-based activities by foreign entities (r&d centres, software development outsourcing etc), with a time limited staff relocation option to more friendly countries. Total ban on relationships with any entities with remote relevance to military technologies, so they lose any benefits of scale or civilian reuse. And naturally ban supplies of anything even remotely up to date in computer hardware, electronics (especially fab tech), etc.

And while you're waiting for the economic effects to filter through, keep supplying the resistance side in their current target countries with sufficient light weapons that the bleeding never stops.

 

[dio82]

Ok, it's on:

The head of the Russia-backed separatist states in Ukraine has announced a mass evacuation of citizens in what may be part of a plan to trigger a Russian intervention in Ukraine.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, announced that he believed Ukraine was planning to attack the separatist state and said he would begin a mass evacuation of its citizens to Russia on Friday. The Luhansk People’s Republic, another Russian-backed separatist state, announced similar plans.

Nonetheless, Pushilin said that he believed that the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy was planning to launch an offensive and that the army would shell cities and towns in the Russian-backed separatist areas of southeast Ukraine.

In a video statement, Pushilin said he was organising a “mass, centralised departure” of the population to the Russian Federation, adding that “women, children and elderly people are subject to evacuation first”.

He also claimed that he had agreed with the Russian leadership to prepare sheltering points for the population in the Rostov region of south-west Russia. The buy-in from the Russian authorities for what would be a difficult logistical operation to move hundreds of thousands of people could indicate that this is a serious development.

And promptly:

Picture of the evacuation buses posted by the Russian news outlet Izvestia
Information on dozens of gathering points now being distributed in separatist-controlled areas

 

[FreeRadical*]

What a load of crap. They are evacuating not to protect against Ukraine attacks, but to limit collateral damage from Russian attacks. How does Putin and his government keep getting away with this? There has to be independent news sources coming across from Ukraine. You can doubt Ukrainian television, but not the rest of the world unless you have the blinders that so man Trump supporters wore.

 

[dio82]

What a load of crap. They are evacuating not to protect against Ukraine attacks, but to limit collateral damage from Russian attacks. How does Putin and his government keep getting away with this? There has to be independent news sources coming across from Ukraine. You can doubt Ukrainian television, but not the rest of the world unless you have the blinders that so man Trump supporters wore.

It is brilliant. They just generated several hundred thousand refugees out of thin air which will be bemoaning how terrible evil Ukraine really is.

And now separatists are shelling the buses:
Russian-backed rebels have shelled refugee convoy

 

[FreeRadical*]

It is brilliant. They just generated several hundred thousand refugees out of thin air which will bemoaning how terrible evil Ukraine really is.

Yeah well, the Russian Federation is only protecting ethnic Germans Russians from mistreatment by Czechoslovakia Ukraine.

 

[dio82]

Hats off Putin, this is a master stroke:

From Guardian Newsticker
Russian state media is reporting a “major” explosion near a government building in the centre of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

From Oksana Pokalchuk, head of Amnesty International Ukraine:

Herd families and kids to central evacuation points and then bomb them. *Slow clap*

 

[RaceBannon]

I was speaking to some grandmothers as i do love history in general, and they told me straight that they didn't really hate the Germans when they invaded in WW2 as they treated the local populace a lot better than what the Russians did. I remember one told that the Russians had burned their village and both taken and shot her cows (It was war) She was a teenager and had nothing and walked on a road to some other village where she encountered German troops. She was given food, some supplies and a few soldiers helped her to another cow that was with them that they gave her. They didn't touch her, was friendly etc, which was in stark contrast to what the Russians did.

My wife is of Ukrainian descent. Her parents fled Ukraine after WWII, not because of the Germans, but because of the Russians. I have heard similar stories as above from my wife's mother.

Ukrainians are very upset by the Russians coming in after WWII and forcing all the schools to teach Russian and disallowing the native Ukrainian language to be used. There is still quite a bit of Ukrainian spoken in the western part of Ukraine, but the entire eastern side is all speaking Russian now.

 

[Anacher]

Hats off Putin, this is a master stroke:

From Guardian Newsticker
Russian state media is reporting a “major” explosion near a government building in the centre of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

From Oksana Pokalchuk, head of Amnesty International Ukraine:

Herd families and kids to central evacuation points and then bomb them. *Slow clap*

It's like a slightly altered version of "Red Storm Rising".

 

[m0nckywrench]

Putin knew the obvious, that Germany could do nothing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-18/

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

Putin knew the obvious, that Germany could do nothing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-18/

Same with Norway, although our constitution says that we can't export to a non-stable country, although i do think some JSM and NSM found their way.

 

[breze]

Putin knew the obvious, that Germany could do nothing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-18/

Same with Norway, although our constitution says that we can't export to a non-stable country, although i do think some JSM and NSM found their way.

That seems really easy to circumvent, just export to a third country and don't ask too many questions. Poland is stable, right?

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

Putin knew the obvious, that Germany could do nothing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-18/

Same with Norway, although our constitution says that we can't export to a non-stable country, although i do think some JSM and NSM found their way.

That seems really easy to circumvent, just export to a third country and don't ask too many questions. Poland is stable, right?

And Poland bought :bigdumbgrin:

 

[dlr(2)]

What I don't get is why Putin didn't do this a few years ago when he had a friendly POTUS in place. Other than wanting to add territory to the motherland, is a big component of this actually to make things difficult for Biden so that Trump has a good 2024 shot?

 

[Technarch]

What I don't get is why Putin didn't do this a few years ago when he had a friendly POTUS in place. Other than wanting to add territory to the motherland, is a big component of this actually to make things difficult for Biden so that Trump has a good 2024 shot?

Only thing I can think of is that he was distracted by events in Syria.

 

[Psychophant]

What I don't get is why Putin didn't do this a few years ago when he had a friendly POTUS in place. Other than wanting to add territory to the motherland, is a big component of this actually to make things difficult for Biden so that Trump has a good 2024 shot?

What difference would Trump have made? Not sending a few thousand troops to Poland? Biden has made it clear he is willing to let Ukraine fall, his only response will be sanctions. I'm sure congress would have passed pretty harsh sanctions with Trump as president. Maybe Trump wasn't actually so friendly to Putin as you imagine? He did approve sanctions against Nordstream 2, which Biden then later waived. So we are left asking why did Biden waive the sanctions, thus emboldening Putin?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674

 

[m0nckywrench]

Short version of why the US isn't ready for a peer fight (including Ukraine intervention) due to being gutted in pursuit of constabulary operational failure thanks to leadership neglect and incompetence. The non-nuclear SRBM problem in particular is relevant to Ukraine. Aircraft can't stop them but SRBM are just as deadly to Ukrainian air bases and other targets as Soviet conventionals would have been to typical NATO bases when I was a young USAFE speedbump.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/u ... ght-europe

LONG RANGE (NON-NUCLEAR) BALLISTIC MISSILES AND ROCKETS:

The US has NONE in the US Army, and the other Services have NONE OTHER THAN sea-launched and air-launched conventional, low flight level, subsonic cruise missiles. NO long range, land-based, conventional ballistic missiles in the US Armed Forces. How did this happen?

The US National Military Strategy is as much a defense industry-driven wish list of combat systems they want to build, as opposed to a threat-defeating strategy based on US Ground Forces out-matching our peer military adversary. Russia, for example, has many hundreds (if not thousands) of state-of-the-art missile launchers, tens of thousands of missiles (plus the Zircon that flies at Mach 6-9 - hypersonic speeds), as well as a full suite of tailored, target appropriate warheads, at multiple throw weights that can be selected based on the target to be attacked. We - the US - have ZERO such weapons.

BATTLEFIELD ROCKETS AND MISSILES:

The US has a few hundred (aged) MLRS and HIMARS multiple rocket launchers in the entire US Army and a couple of dozen in the Marines. BUT, their ranges in distance, numbers of launchers, and throw weights are a minuscule fraction of the hundreds of launchers and thousands of rounds in Russian battle groups. The US never converted the US Army’s Pershing family of battlefield missile systems to conventional warheads from their IMF-directed destruction of the nuclear warheads on the Pershing One and Pershing Two missile bodies. While the Russians and Chinese advanced their development and procurement of advanced surface-to-surface (200 to (+/-) 1,000-mile range), non-nuclear missile systems, the U.S. disestablished the Army’s long range missile commands and stopped development and procurement of peer defeating systems. This month, the US Army had a Eureka Moment announcing the establishment of a long-range fires command; BUT – hold your applause - -that’s only the establishment of the HQ, not standing-up any systems of long-range launchers, or missiles or control systems, as the US Army doesn’t have any. Note: the US’s MLRS and HIMARS Systems top out at about 120-mile range for the very few, extended-range variants. The vast majority are in the roughly 29 to 48-mile range.

Missiles produce a "combat sortie" at the push of a button. They need no tankers, no CSAR, no escorts, no rail and road trail of fuel trucks (except very modest fuel for their own mobility etc) and are expendable if destroyed compared to enormously expensive airframes.

 

[dio82]

What I don't get is why Putin didn't do this a few years ago when he had a friendly POTUS in place. Other than wanting to add territory to the motherland, is a big component of this actually to make things difficult for Biden so that Trump has a good 2024 shot?

What difference would Trump have made? Not sending a few thousand troops to Poland? Biden has made it clear he is willing to let Ukraine fall, his only response will be sanctions. I'm sure congress would have passed pretty harsh sanctions with Trump as president. Maybe Trump wasn't actually so friendly to Putin as you imagine? He did approve sanctions against Nordstream 2, which Biden then later waived. So we are left asking why did Biden waive the sanctions, thus emboldening Putin?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674

Nordstream 2 is for Putin merely a commercial venture. Sure, the general dependence of Europe on Russian natural gas gives a lot of political leverage, but there are many pipelines and no single pipeline is irreplaceable.

 

[Deleted member 14629]

Putin knew the obvious, that Germany could do nothing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-02-18/

Same with Norway, although our constitution says that we can't export to a non-stable country, although i do think some JSM and NSM found their way.

That seems really easy to circumvent, just export to a third country and don't ask too many questions. Poland is stable, right?

That's not legal, actually. Straw purchases for arms and controlled goods are pretty strictly punished. I can tell you from direct experience (Semi On can too, I'm sure) that those things get audited within an inch an of their lives. The company I work for got fined a large chunk for doing it by accident when an ostensibly legal purchaser of our equipment bought it then resold it to a controlled market. All because we didn't ask enough questions about its final destination.

 

[Carhole]

Short version of why the US isn't ready for a peer fight thanks to being gutted in pursuit of constabulary operational failure thanks to leadership neglect and incompetence:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/u ... ght-europe

LONG RANGE (NON-NUCLEAR) BALLISTIC MISSILES AND ROCKETS:

The US has NONE in the US Army, and the other Services have NONE OTHER THAN sea-launched and air-launched conventional, low flight level, subsonic cruise missiles. NO long range, land-based, conventional ballistic missiles in the US Armed Forces. How did this happen?

The US National Military Strategy is as much a defense industry-driven wish list of combat systems they want to build, as opposed to a threat-defeating strategy based on US Ground Forces out-matching our peer military adversary. Russia, for example, has many hundreds (if not thousands) of state-of-the-art missile launchers, tens of thousands of missiles (plus the Zircon that flies at Mach 6-9 - hypersonic speeds), as well as a full suite of tailored, target appropriate warheads, at multiple throw weights that can be selected based on the target to be attacked. We - the US - have ZERO such weapons.

BATTLEFIELD ROCKETS AND MISSILES:

The US has a few hundred (aged) MLRS and HIMARS multiple rocket launchers in the entire US Army and a couple of dozen in the Marines. BUT, their ranges in distance, numbers of launchers, and throw weights are a minuscule fraction of the hundreds of launchers and thousands of rounds in Russian battle groups. The US never converted the US Army’s Pershing family of battlefield missile systems to conventional warheads from their IMF-directed destruction of the nuclear warheads on the Pershing One and Pershing Two missile bodies. While the Russians and Chinese advanced their development and procurement of advanced surface-to-surface (200 to (+/-) 1,000-mile range), non-nuclear missile systems, the U.S. disestablished the Army’s long range missile commands and stopped development and procurement of peer defeating systems. This month, the US Army had a Eureka Moment announcing the establishment of a long-range fires command; BUT – hold your applause - -that’s only the establishment of the HQ, not standing-up any systems of long-range launchers, or missiles or control systems, as the US Army doesn’t have any. Note: the US’s MLRS and HIMARS Systems top out at about 120-mile range for the very few, extended-range variants. The vast majority are in the roughly 29 to 48-mile range.

US fighter mafia ensured tactical ballistic missiles (like those Iran fired at US forces with impunity) would be neglected in pursuit of air dominance by delicate winged systems with vulnerable complex support tails and easily destroyed basing.

Military incompetence lost Afghanistan and the same incompetents remain in charge.

It ended up being quite the loss leader for keeping the US MIC funded. Turns out occupying huge countries filled with cultures that operate in flexible timeframes is hard. Edit: add even harder when your CIC recognizes the enemy and is duped into table talk.

Re: shortsighted analysis of US ground troops, integrated theater and domain has been strategy for awhile. Drones, cruise missiles, EW, nukes, cyberwarfare and now space. The US isn’t looking to invade and engage an army, thus Armament is purchased for a top-down grapple. We’ve seen this since losing Viet Nam, abusing Iraq and Kuwait, etc. Something-something landwar in Asia being a bad idea. But if it were to occur the US wouldn’t be disposing of troops to launch shoulder fired or portable SAM (or otherwise) with fancier tools at their disposal for softening edit: since averting civilian casualties is important. Russia, less visibly concerned with both their own troops and civilian well-being explains a thing or two about how infantry factors into forces.

Edit: English failures and iPad typos.

 

[prc117f]

Zelensky thinking of leaving Ukraine to attend a security meeting in Germany.

Hummm. I don’t think its a good idea to leave your people behind especially in these times, it might even give Putin the idea to invade while you are out watching powerpoint slides in Germany.

 

[Yagisama]

If Zelensky leaving Ukraine to attend a security meeting in Germany is enough for Putin to think it's a good idea to invade, then Zelensky not leaving Ukraine and not attending a security meeting in Germany could also be a reason for Putin to think it's a good idea to invade.

 

[arcite]

What I don't get is why Putin didn't do this a few years ago when he had a friendly POTUS in place. Other than wanting to add territory to the motherland, is a big component of this actually to make things difficult for Biden so that Trump has a good 2024 shot?

What difference would Trump have made? Not sending a few thousand troops to Poland? Biden has made it clear he is willing to let Ukraine fall, his only response will be sanctions. I'm sure congress would have passed pretty harsh sanctions with Trump as president. Maybe Trump wasn't actually so friendly to Putin as you imagine? He did approve sanctions against Nordstream 2, which Biden then later waived. So we are left asking why did Biden waive the sanctions, thus emboldening Putin?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674

Nordstream 2 is for Putin merely a commercial venture. Sure, the general dependence of Europe on Russian natural gas gives a lot of political leverage, but there are many pipelines and no single pipeline is irreplaceable.

Russia relies on energy exports for over 60% of their gdp. It’s all about energy.

In addition, the USA will be the largest LNG producer in the world by the end of 2022.

And:
From Forbes;
“With its abundance of unconventional natural gas, the United States has become a net exporter of LNG since 2017. To that end, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a dozen LNG export terminals, on top of the five that currently operate. The United States now has markets in the United Kingdom, Spain, and France — markets to which this country is increasing its exports. But Germany could become the most lucrative. Cheniere Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total are the major global LNG exporters. “

Thanks to moves made during the Obama era, the USA is once again an energy superpower, with long term geopolitical implications for foes like Russia,.

 

[arcite]

Zelensky thinking of leaving Ukraine to attend a security meeting in Germany.

Hummm. I don’t think its a good idea to leave your people behind especially in these times, it might even give Putin the idea to invade while you are out watching powerpoint slides in Germany.

I know the guy is an actor/comedian, but leaving the country when it’s about to be invaded is the height of cowardice.

 

[breze]

Personally I'd rather be an ashamed living person than a brave dead person, but then my country hasn't been invaded in recent memory.

 

[Bad Monkey!]

It's not that big a deal, Germany is only about three hours away by plane. If shit goes down while he's there, he can make an impassioned statement denouncing Russia and pleading for peace, and be back in Lviv in no time (and thus has a good excuse to stay out of Kyiv without looking like he's running).

 

[dio82]

What I don't get is why Putin didn't do this a few years ago when he had a friendly POTUS in place. Other than wanting to add territory to the motherland, is a big component of this actually to make things difficult for Biden so that Trump has a good 2024 shot?

What difference would Trump have made? Not sending a few thousand troops to Poland? Biden has made it clear he is willing to let Ukraine fall, his only response will be sanctions. I'm sure congress would have passed pretty harsh sanctions with Trump as president. Maybe Trump wasn't actually so friendly to Putin as you imagine? He did approve sanctions against Nordstream 2, which Biden then later waived. So we are left asking why did Biden waive the sanctions, thus emboldening Putin?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674

Nordstream 2 is for Putin merely a commercial venture. Sure, the general dependence of Europe on Russian natural gas gives a lot of political leverage, but there are many pipelines and no single pipeline is irreplaceable.

Russia relies on energy exports for over 60% of their gdp. It’s all about energy.

In addition, the USA will be the largest LNG producer in the world by the end of 2022.

And:
From Forbes;
“With its abundance of unconventional natural gas, the United States has become a net exporter of LNG since 2017. To that end, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a dozen LNG export terminals, on top of the five that currently operate. The United States now has markets in the United Kingdom, Spain, and France — markets to which this country is increasing its exports. But Germany could become the most lucrative. Cheniere Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total are the major global LNG exporters. “

Thanks to moves made during the Obama era, the USA is once again an energy superpower, with long term geopolitical implications for foes like Russia,.

Yes, but unfortunately Germany in its ever infinite "wisdom" on energy policy has not done anything to capitalise on these developments. Thanks to militant opposition by the Greens no LNG terminal has progressed beyond initial prospecting phases.

 

[ABDoradus]

For what it's worth, Zelensky isn't attending some random meeting but the Munich Security Conference. That's a pretty big meeting. The list of participants includes the UN secretary general, the secretary general of Nato, the US vice president, the German chancellor, the UK prime minister, the Polish prime minister, the French minister of defence. Zelensky would be a fool not to go there.

 

[wco81]

Yes, but unfortunately Germany in its ever infinite "wisdom" on energy policy has not done anything to capitalise on these developments. Thanks to militant opposition by the Greens no LNG terminal has progressed beyond initial prospecting phases.

But the Greens aren't opposing NG from Russia either?

 

[dio82]

Yes, but unfortunately Germany in its ever infinite "wisdom" on energy policy has not done anything to capitalise on these developments. Thanks to militant opposition by the Greens no LNG terminal has progressed beyond initial prospecting phases.

But the Greens aren't opposing NG from Russia either?

Look, the greens also have a hard, in the past very hard, left socialist orientation. Natural gas just comes naturally out of the end of a pipeline. Whereas LNG is evil capitalistic fracking gas from the USA in their eyes. So of course they will oppose it.

 

[arcite]

Zelensky at the Munich security conference, Kamala Harris in attendance, among others;

His speech gets a standing ovation;

#BREAKING Ukraine wants 'clear' timeframe for NATO membership: Zelensky

 

[dio82]

Zelensky at the Munich security conference, Kamala Harris in attendance, among others;

His speech gets a standing ovation;

#BREAKING Ukraine wants 'clear' timeframe for NATO membership: Zelensky

Shrug ... Nato membership is indefinitely off the table.

 

[m0nckywrench]

Look, the greens also have a hard, in the past very hard, left socialist orientation. Natural gas just comes naturally out of the end of a pipeline. Whereas LNG is evil capitalistic fracking gas from the USA in their eyes. So of course they will oppose it.

Of course. The Left effectively remains a pro-Soviet fifth column. Anything to collapse (Western) capitalism is acceptable.

 

[Psychophant]

Zelensky at the Munich security conference, Kamala Harris in attendance, among others;

His speech gets a standing ovation;

#BREAKING Ukraine wants 'clear' timeframe for NATO membership: Zelensky

Also Zelensky: “I do not know what the President of the Russian Federation wants, so I offered to meet,” Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference.

Idiot, EVERYONE knows what Putin wants, he's said so publicly many times, this ploy to play naive insults the world's intelligence.

 

[Shavano]

Smarter than you, maybe. He's offering Putin an opportunity to de-escalate while saying he got what he wanted, by making a show of peaceful gestures.

 

[Psychophant]

Smarter than you, maybe. He's offering Putin an opportunity to de-escalate while saying he got what he wanted, by making a show of peaceful gestures.

So make the offer to meet, full stop. Why the farce pretending he doesn't know what Putin wants? I can just see the triumphant announcement after the meeting now: "I have meet with Putin and learned he didn't like us trying to join NATO. I was shocked to hear this, as this had never been communicated to Ukraine before, but we have come to an agreement that Ukraine will not seek NATO membership and Russia will withdraw troops from the border region."