Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

[Slothur the Hasty]

If Russia does invade, it will change the world.

The big news is that it is happening this week.

It would change Ukraine but the rest of the world may vary. It won't change Asia, Africa or South America. It won't meaningfully affect the American public who cheerfully ignored A-stan for twenty years. It's only a war and if you're not in combat that's a spectator sport. Noobs don't seem to get how common kerbstomping small states used to be. It was the norm because it worked.

It will be news like Hungary or Czechoslovakia. No one not Hungarian or Czech or a political or military enthusiast gives a shit about those today. Once the situation stabilizes this thread will drop back out of sight.

It will change on a diplomatic level at least, and i think in ways where the world will rearm itself as no deals will be worth anything anymore, while Russia will probably have a stronger appetite for something more along those lines, but it depends on how that first step will go first and what happens during before i will make a bet.

 

[wco81]

If Ukraine falls, where is NATO's redline?

Hungary? Moldova? Slovakia? Poland?

These are all NATO members but I don't see Americans supporting sending troops to protect these countries.

Europeans might feel differently since after Ukraine and say Poland, the Warsaw Pact is largely reconstituted. Poland is right next to Germany and Czechia. Hungary and Slovakia is on the border of Austria and the Balkans, though I don't know how the Balkans feel about the Russian federation controlling countries right on their border. Maybe they have some nostalgia for the Soviet bloc?

If the original NATO members don't draw a red line for any of the former Soviet bloc countries which joined NATO, especially Poland, then NATO is pretty useless isn't it?

 

[Scotttheking]

If Ukraine falls, where is NATO's redline?

Hungary? Moldova? Slovakia? Poland?

These are all NATO members but I don't see Americans supporting sending troops to protect these countries.

Europeans might feel differently since after Ukraine and say Poland, the Warsaw Pact is largely reconstituted. Poland is right next to Germany and Czechia. Hungary and Slovakia is on the border of Austria and the Balkans, though I don't know how the Balkans feel about the Russian federation controlling countries right on their border. Maybe they have some nostalgia for the Soviet bloc?

If the original NATO members don't draw a red line for any of the former Soviet bloc countries which joined NATO, especially Poland, then NATO is pretty useless isn't it?

If we don’t follow article 5 then NATO is effectively dead.

 

[Deleted member 14629]

There is a very clear difference in treaty obligations with US to Ukraine and US to NATO countries. There is also a very large difference in the rhetoric Russia can employ to nations that are already members of NATO compared to Ukraine. While I personally would like us to draw that line in the sand with Ukraine on our side and still a functioning democracy, the obligations the US needs to adhere to are on the other side of that line right now.

 

[Shavano]

If Ukraine falls, where is NATO's redline?

Hungary? Moldova? Slovakia? Poland?

These are all NATO members but I don't see Americans supporting sending troops to protect these countries.

Europeans might feel differently since after Ukraine and say Poland, the Warsaw Pact is largely reconstituted. Poland is right next to Germany and Czechia. Hungary and Slovakia is on the border of Austria and the Balkans, though I don't know how the Balkans feel about the Russian federation controlling countries right on their border. Maybe they have some nostalgia for the Soviet bloc?

If the original NATO members don't draw a red line for any of the former Soviet bloc countries which joined NATO, especially Poland, then NATO is pretty useless isn't it?

If a NATO member gets invaded and America doesn't send troops its days as a superpower are over. Cooperation of any kind would be very hard to come by.

 

[Megalodon]

If it were so easy to shove Russia around without consequence US hawks would have made a habit of it, but even they understand Russians have choices Americans do not and could engage in a shooting war with NATO knowing they cannot be invaded.

That seems unlikely in the extreme. Russia would have catastrophic disadvantages in a conventional conflict against NATO. They'd have no assurance of air superiority and no answer to the large advantage NATO has in areas like counter-battery fire. Russia's optimal conflict is one where they're at an an overwhelming advantage against bit players that aren't part of any larger alliance, which is exactly what this is. Just like NATO isn't going to rush to defend Ukraine, Russia isn't going to rush into conflict with NATO. Getting into a real fight would be totally counter to the purpose of pushing around smaller neighbors for domestic approval ratings.

The CIA is entirely capable of propping up insurgents and partisans to make an occupation expensive. I think from a realpolitik perspective that's the obvious path forward. US preparedness was devastated by long occupations and the cheapest way to stymie Russia's ambitions is to do the same to them.

 

[Deleted member 326875]

If it were so easy to shove Russia around without consequence US hawks would have made a habit of it, but even they understand Russians have choices Americans do not and could engage in a shooting war with NATO knowing they cannot be invaded.

That seems unlikely in the extreme. Russia would have catastrophic disadvantages in a conventional conflict against NATO. They'd have no assurance of air superiority and no answer to the large advantage NATO has in areas like counter-battery fire. Russia's optimal conflict is one where they're at an an overwhelming advantage against bit players that aren't part of any larger alliance, which is exactly what this is. Just like NATO isn't going to rush to defend Ukraine, Russia isn't going to rush into conflict with NATO. Getting into a real fight would be totally counter to the purpose of pushing around smaller neighbors for domestic approval ratings.

The CIA is entirely capable of propping up insurgents and partisans to make an occupation expensive. I think from a realpolitik perspective that's the obvious path forward. US preparedness was devastated by long occupations and the cheapest way to stymie Russia's ambitions is to do the same to them.

This is assuming we have a consistent foreign policy. After Trump, I am not sure we can actually form any long term plan against Russia expansion.

 

[iPilot05]

This is assuming we have a consistent foreign policy. After Trump, I am not sure we can actually form any long term plan against Russia expansion.

I think you give Trump too much credit here. He might of done the State Department dirty but there's still plenty of think tanks around DC with more than enough opinions on foreign policy. Plus in a way this Ukraine business could be just what Biden needs to revitalize State and the military. Those spending plans he's been having issues with will go through a lot smoother if they can be justified with rebuilding to combat a reconstituted USSR.

 

[Deleted member 326875]

This is assuming we have a consistent foreign policy. After Trump, I am not sure we can actually form any long term plan against Russia expansion.

I think you give Trump too much credit here. He might of done the State Department dirty but there's still plenty of think tanks around DC with more than enough opinions on foreign policy. Plus in a way this Ukraine business could be just what Biden needs to revitalize State and the military. Those spending plans he's been having issues with will go through a lot smoother if they can be justified with rebuilding to combat a reconstituted USSR.

It goes beyond Trump. Number of politicians have shown close relationship with the Russia government. Moreover, I think a fair number of politicians actually want a Russia political/economical system (at least one which they are at the top). It is also a lot hard to build something up than to destroy something. I would seriously consider my career options in State Department after go through Trump administration.

 

[Facekhan]

One thing is certain, NATO countries will mostly be increasing their military budgets especially any that are anywhere near Russia.

 

[arcite]

Biden appears very indecisive on how the next events will play out. The ‘diplomatic’ work is a joke, and since Russia will not be cut out of SWIFT, they will weather any sanctions.

 

[m0nckywrench]

Should Putin and Beijing decide to cooperate that could strain US forces in a future invasion of Taiwan. It's worth remembering Korea and Viet Nam operations were constrained by the necessity to defend NATO. It won't be any time soon since China isn't ready but simultaneous attacks on Ukraine and Taiwan would overload USAF assets while forces stationed or deployed in Europe would not be readily available for Taiwan because most of heavy units move by sea not airlift.

The US doesn't have enough airlift for one nation-state war in the Pacific let alone supporting Ukraine high intensity ops at the same time. The CRAF would be activated but that would still not be sufficient to supply our and client forces at their accustomed rates. Increased forward deployment of supplies where they're difficult to destroy would be wise.

A North Korean attack coupled with Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be no worse an idea than invading Taiwan and Russia could tie down considerable forces in Europe. War are fought with stocks and troops on hand and handy which are not the same thing. Sealift would be globally vulnerable when the shooting starts and the US doesn't have Cold War 1.0 ASW coverage.

https://blog.usni.org/posts/2016/04/20/ ... to-the-gap

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-nav ... r-the-sea/

Better systems in smaller numbers still cover less ocean while every Chinese "civilian" vessel is officially a military asset and potential shooter. ASW aircraft can also kill surface vessels. More drone coverage would help in that respect. Every enemy nation vessel should be tracked and preparations to sink the lot made in case war breaks out. Official militarization of Chinese shipping makes them lawful targets in declared war and many could be disabled without sinking, for example by a Hellfire into the bridge killing the crew. As in submarine warfare aircraft, missiles and drone confer no obligation to waste military assets rescuing enemy personnel. See the US submarine war against Japan where we did a better job by far than German subs did against the Allies for how lawful ops work. We''l have hundreds perhaps thousands of targets to dispatch while defending the few US flagged merchant ships plus client logistics.

NATO and our other clients should rearm to Cold War levels because the Cold War not only never ended but US trade now completely subsidizes the Chinese military-industrial complex while European gas money keeps the Kremlin wealthy. That makes operations to debilitate Russia even more important. Giving them a nice boondoggle to chew on while arming for eventual war with China would be the smart play. The only way to make containment work is to build conventional military overmatch just like the last time. Our allies need to shit lots of money and even more difficult, increase the size and training of their currently gimped standing forces.

Massive investments in ubiquitous defensive missiles, drones, shore-based ASM (because land is hard to sink) and a militarized space fleet with global look-down shoot down capability are mandatory. Space is the high ground. It must be denied the enemies and used against them. The now tiny (in historic terms) fleets of US winged systems cannot deliver large enough conventional payloads with sufficient impunity. 100 tons of ordnance/drones/whatever per SpaceX style rocket launch deploys much faster with more throw weight then slow piddling conventional bombers.

 

[m0nckywrench]

Biden appears very indecisive on how the next events will play out. The ‘diplomatic’ work is a joke, and since Russia will not be cut out of SWIFT, they will weather any sanctions.

Moderate sanctions often strengthen the target regime though such mediagenic wanking is fun. The enemy can do a Saddam and starve his civilians then blame their suffering on the US. Eager Western arsekissers will help circulate Russian propaganda. Russians are used to hard lives and willing to sacrifice to beat the Western enemy.

The Western socio-political toughness of the early Cold War is ancient history outside some of the armed forces. Societies of ignorant childishly silly invertebrates lack the appetite to defend freedoms they take for granted. The wealthy easy life WWII victory bought the West also gutted it.

Then we have military leadership failure after failure during decolonialization and attempts at neocolonialization in A-stan and Iraq (an unfinished Pyrrhic operation which other more important wars may imperil). The US military lacks senior leadership discipline. We don't remove any but the worst leaders and they have to crash a vessel or copulate with the wrong person to get shitcanned. Mere incompetence is not grounds for relief or we'd not have been lied to about operational "success".

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/309148/

Generalship in combat is extraordinarily difficult, and many seasoned officers fail at it. During World War II, senior American commanders typically were given a few months to succeed, or they’d be replaced. Sixteen out of the 155 officers who commanded Army divisions in combat were relieved for cause, along with at least five corps commanders.

 

[arcite]

I hardly ever agree with you m0nckywrench, but you probably have a very good reading of the situation.

Looks like Putin will be allowed to take another bite out of Ukraine.

——

Yesterday on one of the airline tracking tweets, someone recorded about two dozen privete jets taking off from Kiev, the Ukrainian oligarchs have fled the country. They know what’s coming.

 

[breze]

Biden appears indecisive because he doesn't get to just decide how the next events will go. We're

* not going to get in a shooting war with Russia

* not in control of Europe's trade policies

It isn't a matter of 'toughness,' we have limited leverage and realistically this is more Europe's back yard than ours.

 

[dio82]

If Russia does invade, it will change the world.

The big news is that it is happening this week.

It would change Ukraine but the rest of the world may vary. It won't change Asia, Africa or South America. It won't meaningfully affect the American public who cheerfully ignored A-stan for twenty years. It's only a war and if you're not in combat that's a spectator sport. Noobs don't seem to get how common kerbstomping small states used to be. It was the norm because it worked.

It will be news like Hungary or Czechoslovakia. No one not Hungarian or Czech or a political or military enthusiast gives a shit about those today. Once the situation stabilizes this thread will drop back out of sight.

++
I will also massively change Russia (depending on the level of sanctions) and eastern European power dynamics with the last non-aligned nations hastily joining NATO.
But outside of that, yes, Ukraine is game to us ...

 

[dio82]

Biden appears indecisive because he doesn't get to just decide how the next events will go. We're

* not going to get in a shooting war with Russia

* not in control of Europe's trade policies

It isn't a matter of 'toughness,' we have limited leverage and realistically this is more Europe's back yard than ours.

US can force everybody's Hand by doing hard sanctions, like it did with Hauwei or Iran and SWIFT. Buy gas from Gazprom? Off to the black list you go ...

The US's true superpower are not it's nukes or military, but its financial power.

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

Another question is how the population in Russia will react to an invasion, and the sanctions that comes with it. Will they join the party-line and support it, or will the Navalny's come out of the woodwork?

 

[David Smolinski]

How would you sell war to the American public after the Afghan debacle completely discredited the US military?

That happened over 10 years ago. USians love war. War with Russia would be ethical. Its a fight for freedom. Every US war I remember in my lifetime has been for corruption and against freedom. I tried to vote against and protest them.

This situation is like with the Nazis. Think of Russia and China as Germany and Italy. Its a war that will keep us from being invaded. Russia has a history of invading and abusing the Ukraine.

Show your support for our country by disapproving of the harmful wars and those who voted for them. Don't thank veterans of the late Afghan war for their service.

 

[Deleted member 30114]

If Ukraine falls, where is NATO's redline?

Hungary? Moldova? Slovakia? Poland?

These are all NATO members but I don't see Americans supporting sending troops to protect these countries.

Europeans might feel differently since after Ukraine and say Poland, the Warsaw Pact is largely reconstituted. Poland is right next to Germany and Czechia. Hungary and Slovakia is on the border of Austria and the Balkans, though I don't know how the Balkans feel about the Russian federation controlling countries right on their border. Maybe they have some nostalgia for the Soviet bloc?

If the original NATO members don't draw a red line for any of the former Soviet bloc countries which joined NATO, especially Poland, then NATO is pretty useless isn't it?

Poland will be the American last stand in Europe long after NATO is disbanded. Poland is a bomb under the EU and Washington needs to hold onto the primer.

 

[arcite]

The demographics of Europe are horrible. Most EU countries are facing quickly aging populations, most EU countries are adverse to massive immigration, many are outright opposed to immigration. France is pretty much the only EU country with a balanced population growth rate at the moment. All this leads to a general weakening of basic social programs from an ever shrinking taxbase - all well documented. The rise of alt-right/far-right politics is also a double-blow for growth.

All this is to say, NATO isn't going anywhere.

 

[Deleted member 14629]

Biden appears indecisive because he doesn't get to just decide how the next events will go. We're

* not going to get in a shooting war with Russia

* not in control of Europe's trade policies

It isn't a matter of 'toughness,' we have limited leverage and realistically this is more Europe's back yard than ours.

US can force everybody's Hand by doing hard sanctions, like it did with Hauwei or Iran and SWIFT. Buy gas from Gazprom? Off to the black list you go ...

The US's true superpower are not it's nukes or military, but its financial power.

I was about to say there's no way our trade agreements would allow us to do that, but with the failure of the TPIP, we actually have no overarching free trade agreement with the EU. It appears that right now we could do exactly that without violating treaties.

Of course, politically it would be wildly unpopular, and almost certainly cause a reprisal by the EU as a whole...

 

[dio82]

Biden appears indecisive because he doesn't get to just decide how the next events will go. We're

* not going to get in a shooting war with Russia

* not in control of Europe's trade policies

It isn't a matter of 'toughness,' we have limited leverage and realistically this is more Europe's back yard than ours.

US can force everybody's Hand by doing hard sanctions, like it did with Hauwei or Iran and SWIFT. Buy gas from Gazprom? Off to the black list you go ...

The US's true superpower are not it's nukes or military, but its financial power.

I was about to say there's no way our trade agreements would allow us to do that, but with the failure of the TPIP, we actually have no overarching free trade agreement with the EU. It appears that right now we could do exactly that without violating treaties.

Of course, politically it would be wildly unpopular, and almost certainly cause a reprisal by the EU as a whole...

Yeah, there are surprisingly little "safety nets" to fall to when push comes to shove. Just saying that the US can, neither that it would or should.

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

Some military drills are finished, while some are soon ending according to the link. Are we seeing a Russia with cold feet here?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-02-14/

 

[arcite]

*U.S. Is Closing Kyiv Embassy, Relocating Diplomatic Operations to Lviv, According to Officials, Documents --WSJ

*State Department Orders Destruction of Networking, Computer Equipment in Kyiv Facility, According to Documents --WSJ

---

The Russian invasion could begin at any moment.

 

[Deleted member 14629]

Hopefully we're going to see the diplomatic version of "Hahs, made you destroy all your stuff!" instead, but I'm not holding out hope.

 

[prc117f]

At this point I do not believe any new extended invasion will occur. I think the Russians will continue to rattle the drums for as long as possible to keep people on their feet. I do not see Ukraine joining NATO in the future as well.

 

[Deleted member 14629]

At this point I do not believe any new extended invasion will occur. I think the Russians will continue to rattle the drums for as long as possible to keep people on their feet. I do not see Ukraine joining NATO in the future as well.

I am curious what some of the negotiations looked like. I'm a bit surprised we haven't said anything publicly like "we'll agree Ukraine won't be in NATO as long as you sign a treaty with Ukraine guaranteeing you'll never invade and you'll give Crimea back." It's nothing Russia would ever accept, but at least we're meeting them on the stage so we can also say "well, we tried diplomacy".

 

[xoa]

CBS writes Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says:

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

 

[brazuca]

The sky is not falling. The US is doing exactly what it can, though we are suffering from years of pro-russia policy from the previous administration. Letting them get away with Crimea, the poisonings, Syria chemical attacks, etc. Appeasement looks like this.
But now, Russia will take its actions. The US is focused on making it clear the this is entirely on them. They are not being forced into this invasion. Best outcome for the US: Russia gets in a protracted and bloody occupation while the US supports Ukraine's regime, even if its in exile. Double down on sanctions and try to get EU to play ball.

Worst case, a quick victory for Russia and regime change, validating the strategy of invasion, all the while, EU cowers and shrugs.

Either way, it's clear that the world continues to require a strong US and EU, as well as NATO. And Russia is a force of destabilization that needs to be confronted. Maybe everyone will wake up.

 

[Fingolfin]

Vlad is burning a lot of resources to play this game. And even a small incursion will be costly to keep going.


And as mentioned before, will all the Russian boat loads of equipment stay working? Good mechanics in the Red Army?
Showing off a couple of items at a trade show is one thing. Keeping hundreds of those things working in combat conditions is another matter as several on here can attest to.

 

[breze]

CBS writes Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says:

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

Wasn't a bumper-to-bumper tank invasion a famous catastrophe in the First Chechen War? Not sure if this indicates that an invasion is happening (Russia playing their greatest hits) or not (surely if they were really attacking they wouldn't reuse this plan, right? The did manage to figure this out eventually, after all). Or maybe they'll spread out before the border.

 

[thekaj]

CBS writes Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says:

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

Wasn't a bumper-to-bumper tank invasion a famous catastrophe in the First Chechen War? Not sure if this indicates that an invasion is happening (Russia playing their greatest hits) or not (surely if they were really attacking they wouldn't reuse this plan, right? The did manage to figure this out eventually, after all). Or maybe they'll spread out before the border.

I think the "bumper-to-bumper" formations is what they used to be in. AKA, they were all parked in staging areas. They're now apparently rolling out into formations that are better for attacking.

 

[breze]

CBS writes Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says:

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

Wasn't a bumper-to-bumper tank invasion a famous catastrophe in the First Chechen War? Not sure if this indicates that an invasion is happening (Russia playing their greatest hits) or not (surely if they were really attacking they wouldn't reuse this plan, right? The did manage to figure this out eventually, after all). Or maybe they'll spread out before the border.

I think the "bumper-to-bumper" formations is what they used to be in. AKA, they were all parked in staging areas. They're now apparently rolling out into formations that are better for attacking.

That is a much more sensible parse.

 

[Facekhan]

Biden isn't indecisive. He is practicing strategic ambiguity, in part because you don't tell a man like Putin exactly where your red lines are (and the price for crossing each one) because he will press against them and push a little more to see if you are serious. Instead, as President Obama did, you apply the retribution and then offer to pull it back in exchange for specific changes in behavior by Russia.

The other part is that the US currently has a fifth column in the form of the GOP media arm in Fox "News" and anything Biden makes public about critical foreign policy and military matters will be undermined by them in favor of Putin (or really any other adversary) so its in the US security interests to not spell out exactly what the tit for tat will be in advance. Let's face facts, if President Biden ordered the CIA to help Ukraine knock Russian planes out of the air and secretly shipped them some extra advanced weaponry, Tucker Carlson would be giving away their positions the next night on his show, outing covert agents and encouraging his viewers to harass their families.

 

[Matisaro]

The other part is that the US currently has a fifth column in the form of the GOP media arm in Fox "News" and anything Biden makes public about critical foreign policy and military matters will be undermined by them in favor of Putin (or really any other adversary) so its in the US security interests to not spell out exactly what the tit for tat will be in advance. Let's face facts, if President Biden ordered the CIA to help Ukraine knock Russian planes out of the air and secretly shipped them some extra advanced weaponry, Tucker Carlson would be giving away their positions the next night on his show, outing covert agents and encouraging his viewers to harass their families.

Yep, honestly the reason I am not deadset against a stand up fight is so much of this funding is dark in peacetime but would be exposed and cut up if we went to open conflict. They are killing us slowly using propaganda and no "break in case of emergency" glass is being broken.

 

[U-99]

CBS writes Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says:

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

Wasn't a bumper-to-bumper tank invasion a famous catastrophe in the First Chechen War? Not sure if this indicates that an invasion is happening (Russia playing their greatest hits) or not (surely if they were really attacking they wouldn't reuse this plan, right? The did manage to figure this out eventually, after all). Or maybe they'll spread out before the border.

The first Chechen invasion was a disaster due to using pure tanks without infantry support. The tanks were assaulted from surrounding buildings, trapped on narrow roads, and eliminated. The next wave used combined arms and was much more effective.

 

[Dmytry]

How would you sell war to the American public after the Afghan debacle completely discredited the US military?

That happened over 10 years ago. USians love war. War with Russia would be ethical. Its a fight for freedom. Every US war I remember in my lifetime has been for corruption and against freedom. I tried to vote against and protest them.

This situation is like with the Nazis. Think of Russia and China as Germany and Italy. Its a war that will keep us from being invaded. Russia has a history of invading and abusing the Ukraine.

Show your support for our country by disapproving of the harmful wars and those who voted for them. Don't thank veterans of the late Afghan war for their service.

Yeah except Russia got nukes, so it has to be some kind of proxy war which can last indefinitely.

 

[dio82]

It looks like the cassus belli is being formulated:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-of-right-to-counterattack-in-eastern-ukraine

Russia’s ambassador to the EU has said Moscow would be within its rights to launch a “counterattack” if it felt it needed to protect Russian citizens living in eastern Ukraine.

The comments in an interview with the Guardian will do little to calm fears of a major Russian assault on Ukraine, given one of the key scenarios suggested by western intelligence was Russia launching a “false-flag” operation to provide a pretext for invasion.

Since all inhabitants in the Donbass region have a Russian passport, manufacturing a cause for attack will be easy. If need be, the separatists will simply attack Ukraine positions ...

edit, from the same article:

The US government has claimed to have evidence that Moscow is planning just the kind of provocation Chizhov said Kyiv could launch. US officials went public last month with claims they had evidence of a plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack.

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

The Russian Duma was supposed to do a Crimea on the Donbass region on Monday, but i haven't seen anything to that effect. It might happen today for all i know.

I have friends there whom are evacuating now. They are taking their children from school which has been closed on short notice and since they work for a foreign company, they're traveling to Lithuania. I have offered my own place as a place to stay if needed as Schengen and travel to Norway now is open. I will know more in the evening when they'll call me.