Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

goates

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The Warzone has an interview with the CEO of Ukraine's Brave1, with some interesting bits about how they use and operate drones etc.

Q: You told me that Ukraine has a wide variety of interceptor drones, from the small ones to the bigger ones. How many different kinds of interceptors do the U.S. and allies need to defend against what Iran was launching?

A: I believe that the minimum is 10.

Q: 10? Why?

A: It takes 10 different types of architecture. For us, it’s important to have more different products, because it creates competition between Ukrainian companies, and they are much quicker, building new innovations, and they run faster to get ahead of the competitors – of their rivals. Also, it’s important to have not only interceptors. Interceptors themselves do nothing. This is the combination of variety of technologies, radars, permanent control system, the navigation systems, the systems for remote control, because the soldiers operating them should be not on the front line. They need to be in shelters. So this is the variety of different sub technologies, and as a whole, this is the segment of drone-based aerial defense.

Q: Getting back to the 10 different kinds of interceptor drones the U.S. and allies need. What different kinds? What are the differences?

A: Interceptors against ISR drones. Interceptors against Shahed heavyweight kamikaze drones. Interceptors against decoys. Interceptors that are capable of flying extremely high. Interceptors that are capable of increasing their speed to catch jet kamikazes. Interceptors that can throttle very quickly. Interceptors that have a long flight time and can fly a long distance. So there are a variety of different interceptors.

And this tidbit about defending that the US forgot recently.

Q: Has Ukraine learned any lessons watching the U.S. and its allies defend against Iranian Shahed drones?

A: That’s the best question from all my interviews, for the last period of time. I can tell this subjectively from myself, not a representative of Brave1 or the country. One of the main lessons is that you should never be sure that you are secure enough and your technologies are perfect, because you don’t know what is in the pocket of your enemy. And you always need to be ready for the worst case scenario and permanently improve the level of readiness to counteract or react to absolutely non-predictable different things. And the speed of your reaction is crucial.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/i...ions-swatting-down-thousands-of-shahed-drones
 

Cthel

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Monday morning's missile/drone attack report from Ukraine:
  • 14x Iskander-M TBMs/S-400 SAMs in land-attack mode
  • 8x Iskander-K GLCMs (4 intercepted/missed/crashed)
  • 524x Shahed & Gerbera aerial torpedoes & decoys (503 intercepted/missed/crashed, 5 unresolved)
 

Cthel

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From the BBC: Inside the 'kill-zone' on Ukraine's front line, where new weapons have transformed war
After 225 days stuck in a front-line foxhole, the Ukrainian infantryman's muscles were so weak he could barely walk.

His commanders had tried five times to swap him with another soldier - but they could never reach him. Rotating soldiers on the front line in eastern Ukraine is extremely difficult because of the constant threat of drones.
[...]
Known as Kenya, the infantryman took two days to walk 11km (6.8 miles) to get back to his brigade, avoiding mines and hiding from drones to get out.
Apparently, the entirely unmanned Ukrainian assault operation is still being chalked up as a fluke by the author
Drones cannot seize positions; they cannot control heights and crossings.

So, even in the age of robots and remotely operated weapons, the old rule of war is still true: without boots on the ground, an army cannot hold territory.
 

vhoracek

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Cthel

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Ukraine claim the recapture of the settlement of Stepnohirsk, on the former bank of the Kakhovka reservoir (the one that provided cooling water to the Zaphorizha NPP)

View: https://t.me/DIUkraine/8464

DeepL Translate said:
Stepnohirsk under control: fighters from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s Main Intelligence Directorate special unit ‘Artan’ continue to clear the town

Exclusive footage of the intense combat operations carried out by the assault troops of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s Main Intelligence Directorate special unit ‘Artan’ in Stepnohirsk on the Zaporizhzhia front.

During the operation, carried out in close coordination with neighbouring units, the military intelligence special forces conducted a series of active offensive operations aimed at driving the Russian occupiers out of the town and stabilising the situation in the settlement.

An enemy FPV drone attempted to attack the vehicles used by the GUR special forces to storm the invaders’ positions, but was coolly destroyed.

As a result of the fighting in challenging urban conditions, Russian occupying forces have been driven from their fortified positions, and key locations in Stepnogorsk have come under the control of the Ukrainian Security and Defence Forces.

“The assault operations were carried out in a coordinated manner, utilising aerial reconnaissance and precision fire. Every building has been checked for ‘surprises’ and any remaining enemy forces. We cannot rule out that the enemy will continue to attempt to re-enter the city, but we are prepared for this,” said Viktor Torotyuk, commander of ‘Artan’.

Combat operations continue!

The “Artan” special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
We know. We find. We destroy.

Glory to Ukraine
 

Hap

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ISW is reporting several successful Ukrainian strikes on sites that ostensibly should be under Moscow’s AD umbrella including one site in Moscow city itself. If Russia can’t defend Moscow that’s a smorgasbord of juicy MIC targets.
Ukraine's Defence Forces struck a defence industry facility and several oil sites in Russia's Moscow region, as well as Belbek airbase and air defence assets in Crimea. According to the SBU, targets in Moscow region included the Angstrem semiconductor plant, which supplies Russia's military-industrial complex, the Moscow refinery, and the Solnechnogorskaya and Volodarskoye pumping stations.


In Crimea, infrastructure and air defence systems at Belbek airbase were hit.
Attribution: Liveuamap
 

Hap

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I will state that what Ukraine reports as incoming threats is a bit understated, they do not see everything. In a prior role I had access (legit) to a daily Target of Opportunity (TOO) report, that was basically everything that we could see flying.

Don’t bother asking questions. That’s as far as I’m willing to go.
 

Cthel

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In case anyone was wondering how the Russian state media would react to Moscow getting heavily droned...
Rossiyskaya Gazette said:
For the first time [Russian] air defences shot down more than one thousand Ukrainian drones in 24 hours
(courtesy of the BBC's Moscow Correspondent Steve Rosenberg)
 

wagnerrp

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From the BBC: Inside the 'kill-zone' on Ukraine's front line, where new weapons have transformed war

Apparently, the entirely unmanned Ukrainian assault operation is still being chalked up as a fluke by the author
Drones cannot seize positions; they cannot control heights and crossings.

So, even in the age of robots and remotely operated weapons, the old rule of war is still true: without boots on the ground, an army cannot hold territory.
That’s absolutely correct, and it’s completely missing the point. They’re an area denial weapon. If you can deny your enemy access to an area larger than their own engagement range, then you can just walk troops in uncontested.
 

Cthel

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Looks like Ukraine's has brought a domestic 250kg glide-bomb to combat readiness.

Range will obviously be limited compared to the French rocket-boosted AASM Hammer but domestic production has its own value (not to mention, not having to ask the USA for permission to launch them at targets inside Russia)
 

vhoracek

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Looks like Ukraine's has brought a domestic 250kg glide-bomb to combat readiness.

Range will obviously be limited compared to the French rocket-boosted AASM Hammer but domestic production has its own value (not to mention, not having to ask the USA for permission to launch them at targets inside Russia)

Moreover, if the ordnance is something of (post)Soviet provenance - I'm thinking FAB-250 - that would otherwise just rot in a warehouse en masse because Ukraine currently doesn't have any safe means of delivery apart from improvised kamikaze ultralights, it's going to be significantly cheaper to produce.
 

Neill78

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In case anyone was wondering how the Russian state media would react to Moscow getting heavily droned...

(courtesy of the BBC's Moscow Correspondent Steve Rosenberg)
Man the one paper he quotes was like:
The military should focus on hitting military targets (examples).
No shit, Sherlock. So the whole reason they've been focusing on bombing random houses, elementary schools, and hospitals was because nobody told them to focus on military targets?

:ROFLMAO:
 

vhoracek

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Lithuania is facing pressure from the US to remove sanctions on Belarusian exports of potash, and one of the pressure mechanisms may include withdrawing US forces stationed in Lithuania. Lithuania blocked all exports of the material back in 2022 as part of the EU sanction package which is valid until February 2027 and may be extended. Belarus is world's second largest exporter of potash (an important fertilizer component) and the export made up a significant part of its revenue pre-2022, its largest target markets being China, India or Brazil. US had already lifted their sanctions on Belarus in March 2026 as part of a negotiated release of Belarusian political prisoners.


 

ramases

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Was the original source Czar Phrrhus of Moskva?

From a certain perspective Ukraine is extremely lucky that Russia does not possess a Pyrrhus.

Pyrrhus of Epirus was an extremely capable military commander on the battlefield; Hannibal held him, depending on the source, to either be the most capable Hellenistic general after Alexander the Great, or the most capable, period.

He also was the only Hellenistic general in history that could repeatedly beat Roman Legions using an Hellenistic Army.

The thing he got his rap for, however, is being a shit politician: He had failed to realize that Rome had a strategic depth none of the Greek polities had and never could have due to the differences in what type of soldier the different army models required and how many of them the political system is designed to yield per year; a force structure and doctrine that essentially was attritional; and a political system that functionally made it impossible to impose peace upon Rome unless one took Rome itself -- an ability he never possessed.

Pyrrhus the politician is ... probably not a bad expy for the sort of folly that led to Russia deciding to invade in the first place. Those war goals would probably have been unobtainable on the battlefield even for someone like Georgy Zhukov (of course assuming that Zhukov would be up for it instead of deciding the thing is so stupid he ought to shoot Putin, so there' that)

Pyrrhus the general would, on the other hand, would mean many more Ukrainian killed.
 
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Hap

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Latavia and Estonian under threat from drones. Unknown if they are off course Ukrainian or Russian drones from Liveuamap (I would paste the text, but I can’t seem to copy it).

I also read that Trump threatened Latavia (? It was one of the Baltic states, but I’ll be damned if I can find the article and my damn iPad is not behaving, so apologies for no attribution/link) with removing US troops if they didn’t remove the EU sanction of fertilizer from Belarus.

Seriously, WTF?

A possible threat to airspace has been declared in the regions of Kraslava, Preili, Ludza, Rezekne, Madona, Cēsis, Smiltene, Gulbene and Valmiera. Train traffic has been suspended in all these regions.

A drone that entered Estonian airspace was shot down over Lake Võrtsjärv, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said. The Estonian Defence Forces issued an air threat alert for southern Estonia Tuesday afternoon and ended it at 12:45 p.m.
 
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goates

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I also read that Trump threatened Latavia (? It was one of the Baltic states, but I’ll be damned if I can find the article and my damn iPad is not behaving, so apologies for no attribution/link) with removing US troops if they didn’t remove the EU sanction of fertilizer from Belarus.
It was Lithuania that is being pressured, though I can't find the article now talking about the US threatening to pull troops out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...umption-of-belarus-potash-exports/ar-AA23bsKj
 

vhoracek

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It was Lithuania that is being pressured, though I can't find the article now talking about the US threatening to pull troops out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...umption-of-belarus-potash-exports/ar-AA23bsKj
Here's the article by Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT which I posted earlier - it mentions the possibility of lifting the sanctions as a concession for the US to keep their forces in the country in the last two paragraphs.

https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuv...opoje-lietuvos-susirupinimas-del-savo-saugumo
 
Here's the article by Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT which I posted earlier - it mentions the possibility of lifting the sanctions as a concession for the US to keep their forces in the country in the last two paragraphs.

https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuv...opoje-lietuvos-susirupinimas-del-savo-saugumo

Can't read that language.

Does it mention that Trump all of a sudden (and never before) cares about Potash because his incompetent war with Iran fubar'd one of the world's major fertilizer sources? Which he cares about because: A the smaller farmers were already crumbling under his erratic administration and fertilizer prices going through the roof would put even more of them out of business; B the resulting food inflation will be brutal; and C both the affected farmers and food consumers (ie, people in general) are all going to vote "soon",. Adding this on top of the already dismal polling does not bode well for his party, no matter how hard they gerrymander.
 

FranzJoseph

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Can't read that language.

Does it mention that Trump all of a sudden (and never before) cares about Potash because his incompetent war with Iran fubar'd one of the world's major fertilizer sources? Which he cares about because: A the smaller farmers were already crumbling under his erratic administration and fertilizer prices going through the roof would put even more of them out of business; B the resulting food inflation will be brutal; and C both the affected farmers and food consumers (ie, people in general) are all going to vote "soon",. Adding this on top of the already dismal polling does not bode well for his party, no matter how hard they gerrymander.
Obviously the easy solution would have been for the US to settle with Iran to open the Strait. Alas, with the orange bully being punched in the face by somebody (Iran) who they thought much weaker than them only caused the bully to turn against others who they perceive as weaker.

The usual solution is for everybody weaker to just bunch up and kick the bully nearly senseless. There is always the EU's "nuclear" trade bazooka I guess...
 

Kilkenny

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Lithuania is facing pressure from the US to remove sanctions on Belarusian exports of potash, and one of the pressure mechanisms may include withdrawing US forces stationed in Lithuania. Lithuania blocked all exports of the material back in 2022 as part of the EU sanction package which is valid until February 2027 and may be extended. Belarus is world's second largest exporter of potash (an important fertilizer component) and the export made up a significant part of its revenue pre-2022, its largest target markets being China, India or Brazil. US had already lifted their sanctions on Belarus in March 2026 as part of a negotiated release of Belarusian political prisoners.


If the US were so desperate to get more potash, maybe they should end their trade war with the world's largest producer of the stuff... Canada.
 

karolus

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Obviously the easy solution would have been for the US to settle with Iran to open the Strait. Alas, with the orange bully being punched in the face by somebody (Iran) who they thought much weaker than them only caused the bully to turn against others who they perceive as weaker.

The usual solution is for everybody weaker to just bunch up and kick the bully nearly senseless. There is always the EU's "nuclear" trade bazooka I guess...

A rational actor would declare victory and go home. That could be applied to both Putin and Trump in their respective conflicts. Trump may have learned the wrong lessons from his mentor Roy Cohn—who stressed never concede anything. That can work for a brilliant criminal defense attorney working a jury, but won't necessarily do so in affairs of state. As of yet, we don't fully know why Putin continues to press on, but Trump could easily declare victory tomorrow and present his "deal" to the American public. But his ego—nothing else—won't allow it.
 

vhoracek

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If the US were so desperate to get more potash, maybe they should end their trade war with the world's largest producer of the stuff... Canada.
Appealing to logic and common sense in this economy? How dare you, sir! Don't you understand that it would curtail the potential for grift free trade between good friends? And who are you to say that the US shouldn't be pally-pal with the last vestige of Soviet-style government in Europe? Who are you to dictate policies like that, some sorta freedom-hatin' commie?
 

Cthel

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The UK government announces they're lifting the ban on importing diesel and aviation fuel refined from Russian crude in third countries
UK loosens Russian oil sanctions as fuel prices rise (BBC)
Disappointing, but not unfortunately not surprising as fuel just reached a new record price and there's concerns about package holidays being cancelled due to aviation fuel shortages
 

Demento

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The UK government announces they're lifting the ban on importing diesel and aviation fuel refined from Russian crude in third countries
UK loosens Russian oil sanctions as fuel prices rise (BBC)
Disappointing, but not unfortunately not surprising as fuel just reached a new record price and there's concerns about package holidays being cancelled due to aviation fuel shortages
Realpolitik >> solidarity.
 

Cthel

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"Fire Control" is probably an overstatement; that or there's been a lot of movement on the Southern axis that hasn't been reported by either side.
DeepL Translate said:
Mariupol … the Taganrog road under fire control by the Ukrainian Armed Forces …

On the other hand, if Ukraine are in a position to interdict fuel shipments on the land bridge to Crimea things suddenly got a lot more interesting...
 

wagnerrp

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"Fire Control" is probably an overstatement; that or there's been a lot of movement on the Southern axis that hasn't been reported by either side.


On the other hand, if Ukraine are in a position to interdict fuel shipments on the land bridge to Crimea things suddenly got a lot more interesting...

It’s under 100km from the estuary south of Melitopol to the west bank of the Dnieper, and has been for years. I think the range of readily available munitions has increased to cover that distance.
 

Cthel

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For context, the R-60M variant that uses depleted uranium in the warhead entered production around 1982.
DeepL Translate said:
The SBU has reported detecting elevated radiation levels on the wreckage of a Russian drone following an attack on the Chernihiv region in April.

According to the security service, components made of depleted uranium were found in the warhead of the R-60 missile, which Russia uses in conjunction with ‘Geran-2’ drones. Radiation levels exceeding the natural background were recorded near the wreckage, which was removed for safe storage.

The SBU has opened proceedings under the article on war crimes.
 

wagnerrp

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Cthel

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Some additional context missing? I was under the impression both sides had been using DU tank shells. What makes this worse?
Sorry, I should have been clearer that I thought this announcement was basic "nuclear - scary!" propaganda, coupled with a sensible "civilians should stay away from crashed drones which may contain unexploded ordnance" subtext.

I suppose technically the fact that this means DU contamination is no longer limited to the vicinity of destroyed tanks is worse, but that's an extremely minor escalation.
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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Some additional context missing? I was under the impression both sides had been using DU tank shells. What makes this worse?
It seems like an escalation to me. I don't know why you'd make missile components out of DU; you're not going for maximum kinetic penetration. It almost comes across as trying to intentionally poison every area you shoot.
 

Cthel

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It seems like an escalation to me. I don't know why you'd make missile components out of DU; you're not going for maximum kinetic penetration. It almost comes across as trying to intentionally poison every area you shoot.
It's used in the fragmentation jacket (well, the rods of the continuous rod warhead), so the greater density means fragments remain dangerous over a greater distance, increasing the secondary kill radius.

(The primary kill radius remains the same, as that's determined by the total length of the rods wrapped around the warhead - if the target is within that circle, it will suffer significant and contiguous damage)