Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

[Ecmaster76]

"We" nothing. That was exactly one person's decision, and why know why he made it.

Are you talking about the 2014 invasion of Crimea or some other event?

 

[Ecmaster76]

I'm also a little mystified as to why Putin waited until the pro-Russian administration in the White House was out of office. Had he done this last year, surely there would be no American interference whatsoever.

Trump couldn't give him concessions without being internally challenged.

Biden can give him concessions in return for only taking a little bit more of Ukraine.

 

[Ecmaster76]

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... avy-120951
The idea is to create “complexes” of AI-controlled mines that are self-learning, and can adapt their behavior. “The complex of self-taught minefields is a completely new Russian development,” claims Izvestia. “It includes robotic mines and a special command control unit. After minor refinement, practically all classes of warships and submarines, as well as naval, tactical and strategic aviation, will be able to act as carriers of mines.”

“After the mines are thrown, the mines will automatically ‘line up in battle formation.’ In standby mode, they respond to certain characteristics of the magnetic and acoustic fields of ships and submarines. For this, the mine is equipped with special sensors and sensors, and its hardware has a special self-learning algorithm. With it, mines will be able to determine the type of ship and distinguish their ships from strangers. To identify targets, acoustic portraits of their ships and ships of a potential enemy are laid in the software. These peculiar ‘passports’ make it possible to identify with high probability which ship or submarine is in the affected area. As a result, your ship will move through the minefield in complete safety, and the enemy will be destroyed.”

I'm guessing this is more propaganda than realistic capability. Not that they actually need smart mines to get the job done

 

[Ecmaster76]

I've noticed that most Ars threads seem to have one designated threadshitter whose primary goal is embarrassing themselves. Is that a site policy or something? Does it pay well?

Wait--I can get paid for this?

Its a reward system

100 shitposts gets you a bumper sticker
1,000 gets you a t-shirt (sizes Youth Large through Adult XXL)
10,0000 gets the embroidered hoodie

 

[Ecmaster76]

I think his point was that if we wanted to go after those responsible for 9/11 we should have confronted Saudi Arabia

Instead 9/11 was used as a pretext for Afghanistan (not completely true, Al Qaeda had been there) and Iraq (definitely a pretext)

 

[Ecmaster76]

I think his point was that if we wanted to go after those responsible for 9/11 we should have confronted Saudi Arabia

Instead 9/11 was used as a pretext for Afghanistan (not completely true, Al Qaeda had been there) and Iraq (definitely a pretext)

9/11 was not the pretext for Iraq, Hussein supposedly having weapons of mass destruction (we'll just ignore the inspection team which says they do not in favor of cherry picking non-credible reports) was.

This was not so far back in time that any of this should not be remembered.

WMD was the immediate pretext but 9/11 was the impetus for the "war on terrorism*". Not that Iraq had really done anything new with regards to the alleged WMD nor contributed to terrorism. So ultimately 9/11 was a pretext for Iraq

*Axis of evil, etc

 

[Ecmaster76]

I don't think NATO has a duty toward Ukraine so I'm not sure how that last bit works

 

[Ecmaster76]

Psaki had to clarify what Biden really meant to say about Ukraine.

Biden defensive in rare solo news conference ahead of 1-year mark in office (ABC)

On foreign policy, Biden said for the first publicly that he thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely invade Ukraine -- but warned that he would "pay a serious and dear price for it."

However, in a couple of answers on Ukraine, NATO, and Russia, Biden all but admitted NATO is not united on how to respond and seemed to draw a red line short of an all-out invasion for a unified Western response -- potentially giving Putin space for something less than troops crossing the border, but still highly destabilizing for Ukraine.

While Biden said he still believed Putin still did not want "any full blown-war," Biden said he believes Putin will "test" the United States as significantly as he could.

Not long after Biden finished speaking, White House press secretary Jen Psaki issued a statement attempting to clarify Biden's assertion that a "minor incursion" might not elicit such a severe NATO response.

"President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies. President Biden also knows from long experience that the Russians have an extensive playbook of aggression short of military action, including cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics. And he affirmed today that those acts of Russian aggression will be met with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response."

Considering how little France and Germany are saying, I'm guessing that it's probably a bad time to be Ukrainian

 

[Ecmaster76]

Interesting developments; twitter trackers indicate the UK has flown in at least 8 loads of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine - UK arm shipments to Ukraine are avoiding German airspace;

Macron ruffling feathers by advocating Europeans should discuss security among themselves, and then within NATO, before making any proposal to Russia. said Europeans should rearm and get their act together on security.

Does Macron intend to have a plan before the invasion or several months after?

 

[Ecmaster76]

Why do Russia make impossible demands?

To get not as much as they asked for but still more than they have today

Do they really want war?

Probably not their fist choice but Crimea and other acts have shown they will use it to further their goals

 

[Ecmaster76]

Never trust the Germans;

"Germany Blocks NATO Ally Estonia From Transferring German-Origin Weapons to Ukraine, Officials Say -- WSJ"

Kind of makes you wonder if Mishka is on to something

 

[Ecmaster76]

Could be that soldiers sitting around long enough with nothing to do might get into trouble eventually and need some care

But yeah it's one more thing that looks serious

 

[Ecmaster76]

It's unlikely US sanctions alone are strong enough to prevent the war. We imported $29B from them last year, out of an economy worth $1.48T. So that's a little under 2% of their economy. Europe really needs to be on board to make that work, and Putin has to believe they'll really cut off Russian trade. On the other hand that $29B is 5.9% of their exports.

2% from one buyer alone. Add a couple more % from other buyers and that would be a significant recession. Perhaps not a sufficient deterrent but one can hope

 

[Ecmaster76]

Lucky for Russia that they just happened to have an army undergoing peaceful training right by all that land they hadn't realized was occupied by an enemy army until just now

Look what you made us do

How many miles across the old border will Russian tanks have to drive before the shills stop making accusations of western alarmism?

 

[Ecmaster76]

Speaking of misinformation, appears the US is stepping up and calling out sources of propaganda spread.

Bit of an eyebrow raise here

The officials briefed The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence sources. It was the latest effort by President Joe Biden's administration to release U.S. intelligence findings about Russian activity involving Ukraine as part of a concerted push to expose and influence the moves of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

(emphasis added)

How can something said off the record be attributed to the intent of the administration?

I'm well aware that things are often done this way for deniability by the White House but by the same token neither can the news agency be absolutely certain unless they themselves are holding back more than just the identity of the source

 

[Ecmaster76]

Reports of clashes in Donbass between Ukrainian and separatist forces, including possible artillery fire and civilian casualties.

U.S. intelligence believes the invasion has been delayed a few days for the end of the Olympics and a meeting of European leaders over the weekend.

Yeah I'm sure it has. It's iMminEnT.

But the US government pinky promised the war would start earlier today so...

Lets see how well this comment ages in the next week or so

 

[Ecmaster76]

What bad did we do to Ukraine? We never interfered unlike the US, which admitted spending 5 billion on regime change.

We only took Crimea because trains of nationalist were coming to the peninsula to kill every Russian there.

I mean there is absurd and there is ABSURD. Clearly the speechwriters were having a good chuckle when they wrote this.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Yeah I'm sure it has. It's iMminEnT.

But the US government pinky promised the war would start earlier today so...

Lets see how well this comment ages in the next week or so

I think its safe to say that Crimson939's comment is aging more like spilt milk than fine wine

In contrast Russia is sticking to the script so closely you'd almost think they are just using US intelligence reports as their playbooks

Look what you made us do

 

[Ecmaster76]

Oh crap, so that will mean that Ukrainian forces will be "occupying" the recognized borders of Donetsk and Lugansk, which would allow Russia to move in to protect it's borders.

Perhaps Putin, in his pacifist magnanimity, will allow them a few hours to withdraw before he is (most reluctantly) forced to obliterate them with that huge army that was nearby for totally unrelated training purposes.

It seems each one is taking stage for the second time saying basically the same thing.

They have always been at war with WestAsia

 

[Ecmaster76]

Still seems to be aging well to me. On Feb 10th, after joking about the imminent invasion schtick I clarified that I was speaking of a march on Kyiv.


But yeah, when many of you seem to define imminent as anywhere from now until infinity it does become funny.

Yes yes, I know total 4-D US intelligence agency Chess match was going on...

Doubling down when there is a real chance even your shifted goalpost will be proven wrong in a week or two is an interesting choice

 

[Ecmaster76]

Still seems to be aging well to me. On Feb 10th, after joking about the imminent invasion schtick I clarified that I was speaking of a march on Kyiv.


But yeah, when many of you seem to define imminent as anywhere from now until infinity it does become funny.

Yes yes, I know total 4-D US intelligence agency Chess match was going on...

Doubling down when there is a real chance even your shifted goalpost will be proven wrong in a week or two is an interesting choice

I mean you were the one who put my post on aging in "a week". Are you changing the definition of "imminent" to just be "whenever something I think will happen, happens"? Okay... lol

Your original goalpost was any invasion being "imminent" before you had to hedge with Kiev (after my "week" post)
Here we are and Russia has already crossed the border

How quickly they move can depend on a lot of things but it seems pretty obvious now that they intend to entirely subjugate Ukraine by intimidation or force

 

[Ecmaster76]

You actually posted your "week" post on February 17th, literally a WEEK (Feb 10th) after I posted about an "imminent" threat meaning a march on Kyiv.

It's pedantic, I know, but you brought it up.

OK. Fine. I guess you have had multiple posts mocking the supposedly exaggerated threat.

Other than that you have done little to refute the reality of Russian aggression unfolding in real time right now

 

[Ecmaster76]

Russian troops are in the self-declared separatist zones(countries?)

So yeah... I probably "would do little to refute" that, lol.

So do you genuinely agree with Putin?

I mean with your China schtick you can at least pretend they have something good to offer the world as long as you dont look at the ugly bits. I'm not really sure how anyone makes a coherent defense of Russia

 

[Ecmaster76]

No I don't agree with Putin's ideology. I agree with the reality that troops are in the separatist region.

Thats doublespeak. Those are part of Ukraine unless you accept the Russian narrative

 

[Ecmaster76]

No I don't agree with Putin's ideology. I agree with the reality that troops are in the separatist region.

Thats doublespeak. Those are part of Ukraine unless you accept the Russian narrative

Have you actually read the Minsk agreements? Serious question because based on your response it appears that you haven't.

The agreement didn't move the Russia-Ukraine border. Russia just crossed it.

Further claiming that a previous agreement made in response to Russian-sponsored aggression somehow legitimizes more Russian aggression is interesting reasoning

 

[Ecmaster76]

At the least we've conclusively settled the question over whether western nations were engaged in alarmism over the last few weeks

 

[Ecmaster76]

Putin must have terminal cancer is likely doing this as a way to end things on his term which is to sow chaos and destruction against an enemy he has loathed all his life.


That or Donald Trump leaked to him the NATO think thank plans on how to contain Russia if they invaded Ukraine. So Putin has the cheat codes to this war Donald Trump gifted him.

If the latter it was considerate of Putin to give Biden a whole year to fix things

 

[Ecmaster76]

I'm seeing unverified videos online claiming to show Russian troops abandoning their equipment and deserting. IF this stuff is remotely accurate, Ukraine's only saving grace might be that they're not going to facing the full power of a Russian offensive, because some chunk of it has decided not to participate.

Considering the sentiment coming from Ukraine that seems far more willing to fight, this might not be quite as one-sided as originally feared.

Good for them if true. In their shoes I'd be wondering why the hell I need to die for this nonsense. Outside the elite units, they are mostly conscripts with little experience and little to gain from this.

<snip>

So, as long as your itch is scratched—the people being invaded and subjugated are irrelevant. What a wonderful perspective.

Believe it or not this is the first one to make it onto my foe list. I'm not sure they even had a point and certainly didn't make it if they did.
:facepalm:

 

[Ecmaster76]

The financial director for Gazprom, the largest publicly-listed natural gas company in the world and the largest company in Russia by revenue, has been found dead by suicide in St. Petersburg

https://m.47news.ru/articles/208119/

"suicide"

 

[Ecmaster76]

The financial director for Gazprom, the largest publicly-listed natural gas company in the world and the largest company in Russia by revenue, has been found dead by suicide in St. Petersburg

https://m.47news.ru/articles/208119/

"suicide"

The translation of the article mentions that this isn't the first in recent memory. Sounds like someone is cleaning house.

Just to be clear it is entirely possible he died by his own actions because of coercion or despair but yeah, if a few more "coincidences" occur I won't be surprised either

 

[Ecmaster76]

Musk just tweeted starlink is active in Ukraine, he’s sending starlink terminals.

Wonderful, now that's some unique capabilities in this situation. And SpaceX should in principle be able to allow any roaming and such with the Ukrainian government's permission.

Musk just tweeted starlink is active in Ukraine, he’s sending starlink terminals.

Great. Russian ASAT test in 3, 2....

Frankly SpaceX may already be at the point where they can literally out launch Russia in raw mass and replace Starlink quicker than Russia could shoot it. Even if Russia did such a thing which I doubt.

It would be a significant escalation for Russia to physically attack US commercial assets. A few Russian satellites lost in response would hurt them much worse

 

[Ecmaster76]

Re: running out of fuel

Improperly maintained vehicles will burn more fuel than estimated on paper

Even a 10-15% loss of range could be deleterious to an offensive

 

[Ecmaster76]

Re: running out of fuel

Improperly maintained vehicles will burn more fuel than estimated on paper

Even a 10-15% loss of range could be deleterious to an offensive

Russia has engaged in various combat operations that would give them a good understanding of how their vehicles use fuel. And in a way that would be difficult to fudge the numbers. That's at least one element about this I think they would have a pretty good handle on. Invasion of Crimea, operations in Chechnya, moving troops into Kazakhstan just in the last year, etc.

Whatever fuel issues they are having, I doubt are related to not understanding how much fuel their armored columns use at a gross level. More likely, fuel problems would relate to combat not going as planned, supply line issues, things like that.

True but smaller scale operations from previous engagements will rely more heavily on the best maintained units. Its possible they are putting stuff into service that might have previously been "exercised" on paper

 

[Ecmaster76]

The way Belarus has been skating by unharmed by sanctions and other blowback is astonishing to me.

Does Belarus even have much of a surface area for effective sanctions?

 

[Ecmaster76]

Would the lack of such a law have stopped Russia? Isn't that just posturing?

Also, at the distances we're talking about, it's meaningless whether nukes are actually based in Belarus.

Agreed. Launching from the north vs launching from the east of Ukraine seems a meaningless distainction

 

[Ecmaster76]

I'm more inclined to believe that if this is true, it's because internal issues are failing to be papered over, and there is a real chance that Putin will not survive this collapse. Granted, almost guaranteed another oligarch takes his place, but an oligarch that doesn't treat the west as a foe, and sees them more as a customer would be better for worldwide stability, if not Russian liberty.

Personally, upon some reflection, my ideal endgame looks something like this

• Russian offensive stalls and absolute victory becomes untenable
• Negotiations commence and Ukraine makes a concession like agreeing to not join NATO for at least 10 years or something
• Putin stays in power but (internally) his leash shrinks from a mile to an inch. He decides to retire in a few years
• Europe continues to buy Russian gas but becomes much more serious about strategic independence (defense and energy)

Not perfect but I dont see much chance for anything better

 

[Ecmaster76]

[*] Russian offensive stalls and absolute victory becomes untenable
[*]Negotiations commence and Ukraine makes a concession like agreeing to not join NATO for at least 10 years or something
[*]Putin stays in power but (internally) his leash shrinks from a mile to an inch. He decides to retire in a few years
[*]Europe continues to buy Russian gas but becomes much more serious about strategic independence (defense and energy)[/list]

Not perfect but I dont see much chance for anything better

Fuck that noise.

Russia loses and is cut off from the West.

Putin is overthrown.

Ukraine receives Western support to develop NG supplies as a bridge to a fully clean/green energy future.

Ideally yes but I fear that the mountain of bodies the world would have to climb to get to what you want is much, much larger than the one I'm hoping for even on a long term scale.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine is set to receive some Mig-29s from Poland, Bulgaria, and/or Slovakia. Although I wonder if Ukraine has the pilots.

Perhaps some little green airmen will hitchhike on the planes

 

[Ecmaster76]

On the last point I don't think that's true, Russian low frequency radar would detect even a stealth aircraft. And if the Kremlin was leveled, that likely would prompt nuclear retaliation anyway.

Directly attacking Russian troops is one line and directly attacking Russian soil is another

The former being something that should happen only under active provocation and the latter hopefully need never happen

 

[Ecmaster76]

However that isotope (I-131) is dangerous because it has a halflife of 8 days and is therefore very radioactive, but it also means that any produced in reactor 4 is long gone. What you have to be afraid of now is the actinides with long lifetimes and their daughter isotopes with medium-long life times (such as radium).

If the core remnants were disturbed, would it be possible for more reaction products to be generated? I seem to recall a year or two ago that they have detected some increases in activity so its definitely still hot even if subcritical

edit: definitely not happy about the fuck around and find out situation we're in