Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

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"This gets out of hand, we're gonna be caught in the biggest naval battle since the Jutland. Jesus!"
Fred Thompson as Rear Admiral Joshua Painter in The Hunt for Red October

Calm down. There's a good chance the Russian navy will sink itself.


Related to this, probably....Erdogan is pushing through a plan to dig the 'Istanbul Canal', panned as crazy...and funded mostly by China; Threatens to upend the status quo for traversing the Black sea.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-new ... -1.9717907

 

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Also interesting; with Biden pulling out of Afghanistan, the US will be saving $40 billion a year, the EU will be saving around $8 billion a year....those resources can now go toward strengthening mainland Europe and battlefields of the future (Africa and Asia).

 

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Bring the hammer down on Russia; lock them out of the system. I'm sure Biden is willing to do it, the question is whether he can get enough support in Congress/Senate to carry it out and achieve ultimate effectiveness.

 

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Nukes don't have to be terribly accurate to cause their damage.

 

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I really doubt (hope) Putin isn't that crazy. There have always been rumours he has some kind of dead man's switch on Russian nukes - Who knows. However, what is assured....a few seconds after Russia presses the Red button, the US would also be launching. Nothing good comes from that.

 

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Would you accept certain death of you and everyone you love and even just know over a few polish soldiers? I think no...

Treaties are just theoretical constructs. There will be a response, but no nukes on Russian territory.

Does the phrase ‘shock and was’ carry no meaning? The US is the only superpower to ever use nukes against an enemy, red lines will not be crossed without consequence. I’m sure even Putin comprehends that.

 

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We’re already in a brewing Cold War with China, I think Russia was feeling left out?

 

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I'm doing my part by buying Ukrainian salami. It's good stuff.

 

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Meanwhile in Kazakhstan....

 

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Here’s a few GOOD things. Record exports of American LNG shipments to Europe. USA is once again an energy superpower, and they’re exploiting it for all its worth. The drawdown in Afghanistan freed up resources to deploy to Eastern Europe.

Russian economy remains stagnant and fragile. Internal political unrest will naturally increase inside Russia, possibly exploding like in Kazakhstan . ....a side effect of elevated global inflation and inability for smaller powers to effectively deal with it (ie. 35% inflation in Erdogan’s Turkey is a perfect example).

 

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Kazakhstan fashioned itself as a modern and shiny Dubai of Central Asia, but the world witnessed its palaces, parliament, hundreds of cars and businesses torched by angry mobs in a matter of hours. This is what Putin fears, the same could just as easily happen in Moscow.

 

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Incidentally, lots of propaganda over the years has been directed at Chrystia Freeland, Canada's current Deputy Prime Minister (and potential successor to Trudeau); her parents are Ukrainian, she is fluent in Ukrainian, and she specialized in Ukraine/soviet Union while at Harvard. - she was also based in Ukraine as freelance correspondent for FT/WaPo/Economist for quite a while. Ukrainian immigrants also make up a sizable minority in Canada; it explains why Canada gives a lot of moral support (and foreign aid) to Ukraine.

 

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The most powerful tool in the West's arsenal is the ability to quickly make Russia's oligarch class....very....very....poor.

 

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Russia becoming more shrill by the minute. So much propaganda across social media; ie. Russian MP proposes nuking Nevada. Bonkers stuff. Ukrainians are expecting something to happen within a week. It's looking increasingly likely Russia will chomp off another portion of Ukraine, but who can say how far it'll go.

Will Biden step up? :/

 

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Russia is deporting a slew of US Embassy staff in Moscow, including the head chef, whose been there for 16 years.

https://twitter.com/xsovietnews/status/ ... 36449?s=21

Petty?

 

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Ukraine SHOULD be a major country in Europe; they've long been hobbled by corrupt leadership, oligarchs, and of course....Russian meddling; all to keep them weak and a long way from reaching their potential. And yet, their sense of national solidarity is strong. I doubt Putin's invasion will give him the desired results.

 

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UK has delivered (possibly) thousands of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM)s to Ukraine;

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 63441?s=20

Haven's seen anything yet on US arms deliveries.

 

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mishka, I've seen you make the claim that Russia is under Germany's control several times. You also mentioned Putin's "handler" is German.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

It's bizarre.

Can you expound on this or link something?

A former German Chancellor works for Rosneft; and former French PM does contract work for another Russian company...

There is no conspiracy; many politicians across the world are easily bought off. That doesn't mean foreign policy stances are compromised.

 

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I don't think NATO has a duty toward Ukraine so I'm not sure how that last bit works

They don't have a duty to physically defend Ukraine....but it's in their interests to provide moral support, financial support, logistical support, training, and as many weapons as possible to Ukraine in their fight against Putin.

 

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Interesting developments; twitter trackers indicate the UK has flown in at least 8 loads of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine - UK arm shipments to Ukraine are avoiding German airspace;

Macron ruffling feathers by advocating Europeans should discuss security among themselves, and then within NATO, before making any proposal to Russia. said Europeans should rearm and get their act together on security.

 

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Who could have predicted that decommissioning nuke plants and becoming dependent on Russia would compromise security of Europe? But at least a few German politicians got extremely rich.

 

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The US State Department has cleared the Baltic states and Britain to send “US-made missiles and other weapons to Ukraine,” according to Reuters citing three unnamed sources. The report comes a month after the Baltic States declared readiness to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

US export control regulations require approval from the State Department for the countries before transferring any weapons received from the US to third parties. These approvals would allow Estonia to transfer Javelin anti-tank missiles, while Lithuania will be cleared to send Stinger missiles, according to one of the sources cited by Reuters.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 022-01-20/


Russia has lots of fighter jets; Ukraine probably needs anti-aircraft missiles - -- too little too late?

Also; CIA director was recently in Ukraine for secret talks.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-chief- ... 1642679002

 

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Reports of small contingent of Canadian special forces in Ukraine; not sure what they're doing; also, Foreign Minister said Canada will contribute to sending weapons.

https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/ ... 17475?s=20

 

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Saw an interesting bit last night on Reddit about how Russia's actually in kind of a bad spot now. UK's airlift of NLAWs (anti-tank weaponry that's basically "point at the tank for three seconds, press a button, and the tank dies" that is highly effective against T-90s, Russia's main battle tank) to Ukraine means that if Russia does invade, their tanks are going to get chewed to shit. This is the same reason Assad got in trouble in Syria; the only reason he was able to turn things around was because the west turned off the arms spigot over terrorism concerns and Russia started providing air support.

Yes, Russia will have air superiority, which will suck for the Ukrainians, but territory gained for Russia won't be the cakewalk that everybody was concerned about. Russia either pushes ahead with this and gets a lot of conscripts killed (another thing - the Ukrainians are defending their home territory; Russia is invading with a bunch of draftees with shitty morale) or pulls back and goes home which makes Putin look bad either way.

On twitter; someone posted about Russia sneaking in thousands of tons of fuel into Belarus and Crimea; it's looking like no matter what, they will take a piece of Ukraine.

Good news; Estonia is to provide Javelins, while Latvia and Lithuania will send Stingers. Dozens of pieces expected.

Dozens is better than nothing.

 

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Breaking;

Psaki says the administration has notified Congress of the US' intent to deliver Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine.


The Defense Department had been pressing for some equipment that would have gone to Afghanistan -- like the Mi-17 helicopters -- to instead be sent to Ukraine, as we reported in November. These were on Ukraine's wishlist too.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/sta ... 48102?s=20
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Too little too late?

 

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Never trust the Germans;

"Germany Blocks NATO Ally Estonia From Transferring German-Origin Weapons to Ukraine, Officials Say -- WSJ"

 

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It's times like this when you find out who your real friends are;

"BREAKING: The Netherlands breaks with Germany and drops its opposition to arming Ukraine"

 

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I can't pretend to know what Putin is really thinking. If he's intending to invade Ukraine, it seems like all the threats are going to buy him nothing. It just prompts western governments to send weapons and maybe troops that will make the invasion harder. Or he could be thinking a few more threats and he'll break NATO, which would be a huge victory, Ukraine invasion or not. Or it's a show for internal Russian consumption.

I wouldn't want to be in Ukraine, or any neighboring country right now, that's for sure.

Here's a good talk by John Mearsheimer on what Russia's motivations are in Ukraine, and how some in the west misunderstand them. Basically the west has an economic interest in Ukraine, Russia has a security interest. They will go to much farther lengths to protect their security interest than Europe will to protect an economic interest. Russia is willing to have a neutral Ukraine, but if that isn't possible, they will just wreck it. No company is going to invest serious capital in the country if Russia rolls tanks up to the border every 3 years, even if it never invades. He also thinks Putin is too smart to actually invade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Ukraine isn't Belarus; it's a large nation of 44 million, huge agriculture producer (breadbasket of Soviet Union); and other resources. It's too big to fail.

 

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Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and effectively ended its aspirations to join NATO. It seems to be content with the status quo there since, it hasn't moved to occupy the whole country or integrate it into a new Soviet Union. It seems like they have stopped any territorial expansion there when their security interests are satisfied. When you say imperial interest, do you think this is what it wants for Ukraine, complete integration, when has a large population hostile to them?

One thing is for sure, Russia is no match for open battle against a properly organized western military, Remember his incident in Syria a few years back? The US massacred several hundred Russian mercenaries; https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/worl ... syria.html

 

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With friends like these...

"I am a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity & there we have a Christian country even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter. Having this big country on our side...", German Navy Chief in Delhi

 

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He can now become a high paid consultant for a Russian energy firm.

 

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Biden invites Qatar Emir to DC to discuss nat gas shipments to Europe....

One suspects, the US will coordinate a massive sanction program against Russia in the event of an invasion, nat gas to Western Europe would be at risk.

 

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Fun fact; Germany was allowed to join NATO even while 30% of their country was occupied by a foreign invader.

 

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I am laughing, but really, it's that bad? What about the rest of the hardware, it's a LOT going to the border now.

Putin must figure he has a secret deal with Xi; as defence analysts on twitter say Russia generally keeps half their forces facing China to the east.

 

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More US weapons deliveries on the way,

https://twitter.com/Gerjon_/status/1485 ... 08801?s=20

You can follow the flight live on flightradar24 :bigdumbgrin:

Flight CMB313 is the number one tracked flight in the world right now.

 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/23/us/p ... d=tw-share

WASHINGTON — President Biden is considering deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, an expansion of American military involvement amid mounting fears of a Russian incursion into Ukraine, according to administration officials.

The move would signal a major pivot for the Biden administration, which up until recently was taking a restrained stance on Ukraine, out of fear of provoking Russia into invading. But as President Vladimir V. Putin has ramped up his threatening actions toward Ukraine, and talks between American and Russian officials have failed to discourage him, the administration is now moving away from its do-not-provoke strategy.

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Of course, Putin must have anticipated such a move. Why else would he be mustering what looks like the bulk of the Russian military? Russia is even performing missile tests by Ireland...more distraction and subterfuge. Unless this is all a ruse, Putin will take a piece of Ukraine, but does he also plan to occupy Kiev and install a new government? How does a very costly and (probably) bloody battle in Ukraine help the ailing Russian economy?

 

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NYT- In a meeting on Saturday at Camp David, senior Pentagon officials presented Biden with several options. The options include sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries, with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate.

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Well.....it’s something.

 

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#BREAKING EU prepares fresh 1.2-billion-euro aid package for Ukraine: von der Leyen

Still....barely trying.

 

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Russia will orchestrate a false-flag attack, then invade.

 

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Russian stock market crashing, Ruble is rubble