The RAM shortage’s silver lining: Less talk about “AI PCs”
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On the one hand: "RAM prices have soared, which is bad news for people interested in buying, building, or upgrading a computer this year..."
But at least we can rest easy, because now: "why sell you the means only once when they can sell you the 'service' forever!"
It's just greed, all the way down.
But at least we can rest easy, because now: "why sell you the means only once when they can sell you the 'service' forever!"
It's just greed, all the way down.
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My Copilot experiments have been unimpressive. Even trying to use it to construct PowerShell scripts or KQL queries has been more trouble than help. Part of the problem is that my PC now has like 17 Copilot icons and tools, so I'm probably using the wrong one, but that's also mostly not a "me" problem.
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The optimist in me wants RAM pricing to bring in a year of performance optimizations to get some bloat out of software. If systems are shipping with less RAM, it sure would be nice to see OSs, applications, and websites optimize for more efficiency.
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Yes. Yes it is.
Why would it be a good thing? It's a marketing fad based on software that won't exist in a few years. Remember Cortana?
It's a waste of space on the silicon. You could replace that stuff with more cache.
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The Sheep Look Up
Ars Praetorian
They'll optimize for lock-in and recurring income streams, and you'll enjoy your bug-ridden stuttering bloatfest.
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Resistance
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
When Robert R. Taylor bought the entire supply of hand pumps it was not because he needed that much supply for his product, it was in order to maintain exclusivity in the liquid soap market. He knew that if he bought the entire supply, his competitors would be hamstrung getting competing products to market, giving him an advantage.
I sincerely doubt that OpenAI needs the 40% of global DRAM wafers (not chips, packages, modules, or cards) that it has bought.
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It's not really a silver lining when the only thing that's changing is 16GB of RAM is getting kicked back up to being 'premium'.
All the NPU stuff that you could ignore before you can still ignore; but now with less RAM.
All the NPU stuff that you could ignore before you can still ignore; but now with less RAM.
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What this really means is that companies will keep pushing LLM-based workflows, but the option of running them locally will be diminished. If huge portions of the RAM supply are being reserved for datacenters, that's where the processing will occur.
I'm not as anti-LLM as some people. There are plenty of places where more capable natural language processing will help solve real problems (when integrated sensibly into existing application workflows). But I'm more excited by the possibilities of ever-more capable and efficient open, locally-hosted models than I am about sending all my data to a third-party service. Ultimately, the RAM shortage will stunt the advancement and utility of these local models, providing a leg-up for the large service providers and further entrenching language models as something that are run as a service, not as a local software component.
I'm not as anti-LLM as some people. There are plenty of places where more capable natural language processing will help solve real problems (when integrated sensibly into existing application workflows). But I'm more excited by the possibilities of ever-more capable and efficient open, locally-hosted models than I am about sending all my data to a third-party service. Ultimately, the RAM shortage will stunt the advancement and utility of these local models, providing a leg-up for the large service providers and further entrenching language models as something that are run as a service, not as a local software component.
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I'm sure there are 'think tanks' working out how to dismantle the personal computer market, to replace it with 'computing as a service' cloud systems, so customers own nothing. Ever. It's what big software and game publishers have wanted all along. In addition to massively increasing the barrier to entry for the software/game development business, allowing the existing big players to more easily monopolize the market. At every end of this push, the 'big players' win, and everyone else loses, which is precisely what makes that the outcome those big players will definitely want to try.
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I keep testing LLMs on areas that might be considered "tricky" where I'm an actual expert.
I'm seeing if they get the answers right, or are very confidently wrong and try to gaslight me on this.
So far I'm seeing about a 25% failure rate, as of a month ago.
I'm seeing if they get the answers right, or are very confidently wrong and try to gaslight me on this.
So far I'm seeing about a 25% failure rate, as of a month ago.
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You could just use a Linux Distro for that, I am running Linux on a 17 year old machine with just 4 GB of ram and it works fine for what I use it for.
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I love that even my 82 year old mom recognizes (without me telling her) that "AI" is a buzzword to avoid in sales situations, like "blockchain" and "NFT" and "crypto" and (in 2019) "5G".
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ubercurmudgeon
Ars Tribunus Militum
Nevermind "AI PCs", if the RAM shortage doesn't end soon, Apple's prices to upgrade their computers beyond the base configuration memory will start to look almost reasonable. And I believe that's on the list of portents along with dogs and cats living together.
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NZXT tried "rental PCs" in 2024 and is now being sued for bait-and-switch, on top of a year's worth of rental costing more than the actual value of the hardware
https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/...ory-pc-rental-scam-issues-pointless-statement
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What many don't understand is that even IF the "AI Bubble" were to completely collapse, prices will never be as cheap as they used to be. When stuff like this happens, companies discover new price ceilings that allow them to maximize margins vs. volume. It starts from the top and it trickles down.
That is the same reason why the 5090 launched at such an absurd price, vs. all the previous generations. NVIDIA and partners realized that yes, people will, in fact, gladly pay thousands for a top of the line GPU.
That is the same reason why the 5090 launched at such an absurd price, vs. all the previous generations. NVIDIA and partners realized that yes, people will, in fact, gladly pay thousands for a top of the line GPU.
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Bingo. Prices never go down. If it does ever “pop” these companies will just funnel their marketing budget into proping up the AI house of cards, keeping it all afloat to justify max prices.
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What amazes me is that OpenAI is a money furnace that has been burning capital like there's no tomorrow and yet somehow SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron seem to think that they're good for the money. Even companies that are building data centers are starting to question whether OpenAI will be able to pay when the bill comes.
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They are being sued due to misrepresenting configurations and other shady nonsense. See this GamersNexus video for details:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pomC1CfpC0
Renting PCs is absolutely legal, even at absurd prices. It's been a common practice in the U.S. both via "rent-to-own" and other programs since at least the late 90s.
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Only 25%? Anecdotally, the failure rate for LLM-based tools seems to be upwards of 90%.
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You're using the launch cost of a top-end GPU at the height of the AI bubble as evidence that prices will remain high when the AI bubble collapses? How does that work?
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Models that can be run locally are currently quite weak compared to the large models that require substantial datacenter infrastructure. As a result, they are of limited practical use today. While smaller models may become significantly more capable in a few years, at present it often feels like a poor use of money to run them locally. So a true “AI PC” has always seemed very strange to me, since the cost doesn't seem to justify the results.
Services such as OpenRouter offer access to powerful models without logging user prompts and offer sufficient privacy for the vast majority of users. Those who need absolute privacy, don't mind weak LLMs, and have lots of cash on hand, yes, they can buy an "AI PC". But how many people like that are out there?
Services such as OpenRouter offer access to powerful models without logging user prompts and offer sufficient privacy for the vast majority of users. Those who need absolute privacy, don't mind weak LLMs, and have lots of cash on hand, yes, they can buy an "AI PC". But how many people like that are out there?
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Not really the same thing. I'm talking about 'PCs' being replaced with glorified terminals. Everything exists and is handled 'in the cloud.' All the end user gets is a keyboard and mouse for input and a screen the see the result. The end user never actually has a computer. Or any of the software, games, movies, music, etc they 'buy.' It's all just streamed video from 'the cloud.'
One: it means that the even if the AI bubble pops, all these data centers remain relevant. Two: it works with pricing computer hardware out of the range of the home computing market, because it won't negatively impact profit margins for hardware manufacturers. Three: it makes DRM irrelevant, because the media never leaves the data centers. Four: rights holders can revoke or change 'access' to their products whenever they want, including requiring new 'payment plans' to continuing access their products, because customers never have access to the media. I could keep going, but I'm pretty sure by now you can see why this would appeal to all the big players. It's all about control -- of the price, the product, the customers, and the market. They get to retain control of everything, which is everything they've ever wanted, from the hardware manufacturers all the way to the ISPs and developers. They can squeeze as much as they want, and the customers have no recourse, no alternatives.
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Gotta admit, the ultimate use of AI for me would be better voice-to-computer interfaces. There's a few other uses, but that's the main one.
They seem to get used for everything but that.
They seem to get used for everything but that.
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I wonder if Xi Jinping will save us here. His push for made-in-China silicon will probably spin off some chip manufacturers that decide to go into memory instead of CPUs/GPUs. They can then dump their products onto the Western world just like they did with solar panels and EVs. And to be honest, given the anti-consumer behavior of our domestic firms, I'm not sure that I'd shed any tears for them.
Perhaps in the future, the only affordable RAM for gamers will be from QAFIJKL brands on Amazon. The only downside will be that the chips will automatically replace any Tank Man pictures in your memory with Tiananmen Square tourist photos.
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Anton Longshot
Ars Praetorian
This is great.
I would never have thought of it all by myself.
Soon I'll build a new PC, without RAM and without AI.
Happiness comes cheap.
I would never have thought of it all by myself.
Soon I'll build a new PC, without RAM and without AI.
Happiness comes cheap.
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I'm sure as hell not getting paid like that!Tell the truth: you work for Citrix, right?
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RAM and logic (processors) are entirely different processes and fabrication facilities. Also with different optimizations and potential margins. Memory goes boom/bust with commodity, built-to-an-interchangable-standard products while cutting-edge (or even decent) logic has a long list of customers after the new performance for differentiation of custom designs. Apple, of course, gets to be The Biggest Customer for a lot of these places (also power semiconductors, screens, and batteries) and will have existing preferential contracts that reduce their uncertainty in this absurd market on either set of silicon processes. Of course, if this keeps up long enough, even Apple might run out of margin on their RAM/storage upsells.
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I sure wish more people would remember when "being first" to "5G" was hyped as a full blown national security emergency. Did we "win"? What prizes did we win or lose?
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Apple still uses external DRAM suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron). The DRAM dies are stacked onto the Apple silicon during manufacture.
So Apple is as vulnerable as anyone else. However, it's possible they have long-term supply arrangements in place that could insulate them from the immediate pricing shock.
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That’s a pretty crap silver lining. The edge is where AI is going to thrive and we’re wasting ram on AI data centers so idiots can ask it dumb questions.
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I compared a strix and framework PC with 128GB of ram with a Studio M4 Max with 128GB of ram…only a $400 difference and considering the mac can use all of that ram (minus the OS needs) on what the LLM needs from the GLU cores and the others can only address 96GB for the GPU, I’d say that’s a fair price difference.
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Apple has long term contracts that will protect their price points and supply for a few more years. I think I read through the G6.
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wouldn't that require a tremendous amount of investment in telecom infrastructure to handle everyone streaming everything all the time? (not to mention people stuck on rural DSL or satellite with limited bandwidth and/or terrible latency)
if this RAM cartel nonsense keeps up, hopefully someone will come up with a way to import grey market Chinese RAM once they get some more fabs spun up
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That's only an issue on Windows, Linux can use as much memory as you're willing to give it.
Source? From my understanding they're fine for this quarter but next quarter could see them hit with large price hikes. They're still in negotiations for 2026 orders: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260107VL211/apple-dram-2026-nand-production.html
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