Russia seems to have lost contact with its first lunar probe in half a century

"The management team is currently analyzing the situation."

See full article...

 

[wagnerrp]

Not turned to plasma. That would be the case from TLI entry I suspect. In LLO, you're only getting the other outcomes.

2 km/s is 2 MJ/kg kinetic energy. The heat of fusion of aluminum is only 321 J/kg and the latent heat of vaporization is 0.7 MJ/kg. Some of the kinetic energy will go into accelerating the regolith. So some of the aluminum won't turn to gas. But essentially all of it will turn to liquid - and hot liquid at that (never mind the propellant). So yeah, hot liquid with a high pressure stagnation point will lead to an expanding pressure wave that will atomize the aluminum.

It's ~600kJ/kg to heat to boiling, depending on temperature, and another 400kJ/kg to melt it. That's half the energy just to melt, before you consider energy that goes to the regolith. Boiling is another 1.6MJ/kg to heat, and 10.5MJ/kg to vaporize, so that's not going to happen. You're a full third under the speed of sound, so you will get structural deformation slowing the rear of the satellite, so you likely won't even get full melt. The portion that does melt is now molten aluminum, with a surface tension ~10x that of water, and you're not going to have the mechanical energy left over to "atomize" it.

 

[DovePig]

Using Wikipedia numbers ...
Soviet Union = 22.4E6 km²
Russia = 17.1E6 km²

17.1/22.4 = 76.3%

Ahem, now go subtract Sakha, Buryatia, Chechnya, the other 18 "formally independent" republics of the Russian Federation, the autonomous Oblasts, Okrugs and Krais and other annexted territories, and you pretty much end up with Moscow and its boundary ringroad...

 

[jimlux]

Not really. I mean, yes sort of, but with the right atmospheric conditions, you can bounce VHF off the moon to communicate with the other side of the Earth using HAM legal equipment and power levels. You don't need the DSN to talk to the moon, even with relatively low fain antennas on whatever is on or around the moon. Of course the lower the gain on the lunar end, the higher the gain needed on Earth.

But if you are running a frequency where the ionosphere is transparent, the gain and power levels aren't necessary mind boggling for low modularity communications. Mars is something like 200-1,000x further than the Moon necessitating around 15-20dB higher gain for the same radio power. The moon is about the same 1000x further than low earth orbit. And a handheld 5w radio with a modest antenna can talk to stuff in orbit okay. So you are talking ~20dB higher gain if still using a piddly 5w radio power. Not that hard to do.

Let’s use some real numbers.
Normally, I’d think they’re using S band (2100 MHz) or X band (7200 MHz), although I did see a mention of C-band somewhere, but S and X are usually used for this kind of thing.
Let’s look at “free space loss” = 32 + 20*log10(300,000) + 20 *log10(2100) = 32.44 + 109.5 + 66.4 = 208 dB (for S band) 219 dB for X band.

Let’s say they have a 8 kbps uplink (which is pretty common), so they’ll need about 8 kHz bandwidth, and 5-6 dB SNR in that bandwidth (normally, including some margin)- 8000 Hz is 40 dBHz. so kTB is -134 dBm. Let’s allow 4 dB for noise figure and plumbing, which gets the noise floor to -130 dBm. To get 5 dB SNR, they need -125 dBm RSSi (i.e. -125 dBm into an isotropic antenna). In reality, they’d have 4 dBi antenna gain (can’t rely on pointing a high gain antenna in safe mode), so maybe they can get by with RSS -129, but I’d use -125.

Adding the path loss of either 208 or 219 dB,we get that that ground station has to have a radiated power (EIRP) of 53 dBW (S-band) or 64 dBW (X-band). A DSN 34m antenna has a gain of about 56 dBi, so, indeed, one could feed a watt in and get 56dBW EIRP, which should close the link (for S-band). In practice, though, they’d probably run 1000 Watts.

OTOH, is this something you could do in your backyard (as a well funded malevolent soul?) - Let’s say you’ve got a 11 meter antenna (pretty common) - that’s 1/3 the size of a DSN 34 m, so 1/10th the area or 10 dB. And a 100 W S-band amplifier is a cheap off the shelf thing (<$5k) which would give you 66 dBW EIRP (20dBW from amplifier + 46 dBi from the antenna).
Going to a 3m antenna (like TVRO C-band dishes) now you’re looking at 30 dB gain from the antenna, and you’re going to need a kilowatt.

And that’s not allowing for pointing losses, polarization loss, atmospheric loss (small at both S and X band), or implementation loss on either end. But all that won’t be more than 10dB.

 

[niwax]

Russia can go and f itself but it still saddens me of what have become of once great, world leading space organisation.

It still existed and provided state of the art designs to NG Antares, RFA, Firefly and the like until they bombed Yuzhmash last year. Or did you mean the 50 year old Soyuzes launching from Kazakhstan?

 

[toastie]

No one cares about the whataboutisms vatniks. The FACT is that the nation's Russia claims are "primitive" are the ones routinely putting landers and even SUVs on other planets entirely. Russia has the best track record for making new craters. The FACTS are against your view of the world. The FACT is that this war has been a total vindication of the US weapon stockpiles and "paranoia". When the US starts wanting to invade Mexico or Canada because "its our right" I'll start worrying.

Time to start worrying

Why so many top Republicans want to go to war in Mexico

 

[passivesmoking]

I still suffer with all the engineers and technicians who have worked hard to make this happen.

Good for you. I don't care for whom your heart bleeds, especially when they happen to be a bunch of nasty little genocidal bastards.

And I really don't like how people rejoice on others failing.

https://www.space.com/russia-cosmonauts-ukraine-luhansk-propaganda <-- That's why we're rejoicing. The only sad thing about this is it's not happened to their war effort too.

At least this was not meant to kill anyone

It was meant as a propaganda stunt for a toxic fascist regime. There's nothing wrong with laughing at the failure of the propaganda of a toxic fascist regime.

and whoever worked on this certainly has more in common with anyone else in the space industry than with fucking Putin.

Then they should stop supporting Putin's propaganda.

In the early 2000s I worked with some Russian programmers who left their crumbling country and these guys worked really hard and were really, really good and totally likable.

Also, they left the country, and as such it's safe to say they probably don't support the regime and aren't shedding too many tears over this failure either.

I think whoever of you here who really work in the industry should at least think of your abstract colleagues for one moment.

And I think you should find something better to do with your time and energy than concern trolling.

 

[fl4Ksh]

I still suffer with all the engineers and technicians who have worked hard to make this happen.

And I really don't like how people rejoice on others failing. At least this was not meant to kill anyone and whoever worked on this certainly has more in common with anyone else in the space industry than with fucking Putin.

In the early 2000s I worked with some Russian programmers who left their crumbling country and these guys worked really hard and were really, really good and totally likable. I think whoever of you here who really work in the industry should at least think of your abstract colleagues for one moment.

Same here.

I was in Moscow in Nov 1992, early 1994 and May 1995 for work with the Russian Academy of Sciences Mechanical Engineering Institute. We were trying to start joint scientific programs aimed at mapping the elemental composition of the lunar surface from low lunar orbit. The spacecraft would carry a 5 MeV proton beam accelerator to probe the lunar surface using the neutron energy spectrum produced by the surface elements.

The Russian physicists and engineers were cordial and professional.

 

[O/Siris]

Has an appropriate scapegoat been selected and disseminated to keep everyone's story straight?

There was a story on CNN recently that one of the former commanders of the "special military action" in Ukraine has died...

 

[omarsidd]

Unfortunate but not unexpected. The best STEM minds wouldn't offset a lack of process management, project ownership, and the other things that Putin's regime doesn't reward. Even before roscomos sendings its staff off to fight & die in their occupation of Ukrainian soil... What a waste.
(ref: https://meincmagazine.com/space/2023/...y-is-recruiting-soldiers-for-the-ukraine-war/)

 

[fl4Ksh]

Same here.

I was in Moscow in Nov 1992, early 1994 and May 1995 for work with the Russian Academy of Sciences Mechanical Engineering Institute. We were trying to start joint scientific programs aimed at mapping the elemental composition of the lunar surface from low lunar orbit. The spacecraft would carry a 5 MeV proton beam accelerator to probe the lunar surface using the neutron energy spectrum produced by the surface elements.

Headline in Pravda: "Russia makes largest man-made lunar crater!"

In the story they'll talk about how they wanted to leave a mark on the moon that will last for millions of years to prove Russian superiority over the other nations and this was the intention all along.

Never underestimate the ability to spin disaster into "this is fine".

Actually, NASA made far larger craters on the lunar surface during the Apollo program by crashing the S-IVB third stages of the Saturn V. The resulting shock waves were used to calibrate the seismic instruments left on the lunar surface by the Apollo astronauts.

 

[danielravennest]

I hope it's not a trampoline problem again

It was a Ukrainian space drone

Ukraine actually built rocket stages in the past. They had pretty good tech.

 

[fl4Ksh]

The previous Russian scientific mission, the Fobos-Grunt, in 2012 also ended up in dust. At that time, a Russian relative with experience in the Russian scientific millieu had told me insiders' rumors were that its failure had been planned due to gigantic technical short comings. Under pressure from "the top", they had launched the probe anyway, for propaganda, all knowing it couldn't work. From a Russian perspective, it's better to pretent to be part of the club of "space nations" than keep tinkering a machine in your garage for ever.

I wonder how much the Luna-25 mission follows the same path...

After Potemkin villages, Potemkin spacecrafts?

Russian worker: The government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work.

 

[effgee]

... The Russian physicists and engineers were cordial and professional.

???

So were the scientists developing the Wehrmacht's "Vergeltungswaffe" in 1940. What is your point?

As a governmental agency, Roscosmos, along with its subsidiary JSC Makeyev Design Bureau, is directly involved in the development of such purely scientific achievements [*] as the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.

Being a scientist does not absolve one of the responsibility where and for whom one works. How does that old adage go again... "cling together, swing together", no?

AP, 4/24/22: "Russian officer: [RS-28] Missile to carry several hypersonic weapons"


[* - assuming one is sufficiently brainwashed]

 

[jdale]

How do you people actually reconcile the fact that without Elon Musk who many of you hate as much as Putin the USA would have launched about as much as 5 metric tons to orbit in 2022? Less than India actually.

Unlikely. Payloads went with SpaceX because it's the lowest cost option, but if there was no SpaceX some proportion of those payloads would have still needed to be launched. (Not all of them, but certainly some.)

I mean, I'm not trolling. I'm just totally sick of how you guys are politicalizing and emotionalizing just everything. You should better rein in yourselves before you at some point will really need to engineer yourself out of a wet paper bag one day with no help but by those you agree with in everything. Good luck with that...

Politics will change, sometimes within days. Engineering doesn't change this quickly. There will still be an US astronaut launching on a Russian rocket less than one month from now. Better stick to hard numbers and at least congratulate those who at least try to get get something done. Everyone else anyway is one step away from being forgotten.

This mission was launched for political reasons. Sometimes things are interpreted as political because they are.

 

[mhalpern]

How do you people actually reconcile the fact that without Elon Musk who many of you hate as much as Putin the USA would have launched about as much as 5 metric tons to orbit in 2022? Less than India actually.

I mean, I'm not trolling. I'm just totally sick of how you guys are politicalizing and emotionalizing just everything. You should better rein in yourselves before you at some point will really need to engineer yourself out of a wet paper bag one day with no help but by those you agree with in everything. Good luck with that...

Politics will change, sometimes within days. Engineering doesn't change this quickly. There will still be an US astronaut launching on a Russian rocket less than one month from now. Better stick to hard numbers and at least congratulate those who at least try to get get something done. Everyone else anyway is one step away from being forgotten.

simple, he's an asshole, but his company is important, and not being used to run propaganda missions for a murderous fascist regime.

 

[Atterus]

I still suffer with all the engineers and technicians who have worked hard to make this happen.

And I really don't like how people rejoice on others failing. At least this was not meant to kill anyone and whoever worked on this certainly has more in common with anyone else in the space industry than with fucking Putin.

In the early 2000s I worked with some Russian programmers who left their crumbling country and these guys worked really hard and were really, really good and totally likable. I think whoever of you here who really work in the industry should at least think of your abstract colleagues for one moment.

No. The same as I loathe the CCP drones working on ML for China despite that being my field.

To work for the Kremlin is a choice, and the Kremlin has made it repeatedly clear their space program is a direct extension of their genocidal military and propaganda branch. Every single Russian working for their government, no matter how "nice" is a filthy degenerate Orc I would celebrate going to the 0 line. Unless one of them blows up their nuclear warheads (which Roscos is in charge of) none of them are worthy of even a ounce of sympathy.

The good Russians all left when Putin began his war of genocide. They I have respect for. I have less respect for the ones that left when conscription started. And I would spit on the ones leaving now, cowards afraid of the consequences of their fanatical loyalty to a madman. Those choosing to stay deserve the nightly drone while they continously bombard Ukrainian civilans day and night.

Zero sympathy. Actions have consequences. Only Russia tries to act like they are a victim of "unfair opinions". They are not. They are victims of their own making, with a obvious route back to grace they refuse to take becasue "Russia strong and only legitimate race in world".

Go look up "Russian World" to see why they are hated so much. It makes Nazism seem tame. That is not even hyperbole. Literally "not Russian? Die. Too weak to keep nation? Die."

So no. I will not be feeling bad about Russia again failing to demonstrate it is the advanced nation it pretends to be.

Edit: no one cares about the "what ifs" either, vatniks. The fact is the US does launch a ton of stuff and dominates in space along with our good friends in the ESA, ISA, and Jaxa to name a few. Russia does not. None of which are directly tied into a warlike genocidal regime either. Fail, Russia, fail.

 

[RickVS]

I predict that someone in Roscosmos will be flying out of a high window in 3...2...1

 

[Snarky Robot]

How do you people actually reconcile the fact that without Elon Musk who many of you hate as much as Putin the USA would have launched about as much as 5 metric tons to orbit in 2022? Less than India actually.

So, there are two claims here you’re portraying as “facts”:

• That “many” of (the undefined group) “us” hate Elon Musk as much as Putin
• That without SpaceX existing, the US would have only launched a certain amount of payload

Prove each of them. They ARE facts, right? They aren’t, say, just the subjective emotional outburst of someone who can’t distinguish between the two?

 

[mhalpern]

But are you a politician or what are you actually?

Speak with your own words please. I hate this kind of bowing to assholes like as if everything is just Putin, Putin, Putin.

Can't we talk about this as with we could with every other mission to the Moon? At least here? Where else?

you don't have to be a politician to see that the timing of the mission was to give something other than depleting Soviet war stock to be proud of

 

[denemo]

I want to remember China or some other nation also crashing in to the Moon recently?

In any case, these failures just highlights even more the huge accomplishment NASA pulled off in the 60s with the technology that was available to them at the time. Mindblowing.

 

[scottsp64]

How do you people actually reconcile the fact that without Elon Musk who many of you hate as much as Putin the USA would have launched about as much as 5 metric tons to orbit in 2022? Less than India actually.

I mean, I'm not trolling. I'm just totally sick of how you guys are politicalizing and emotionalizing just everything. You should better rein in yourselves before you at some point will really need to engineer yourself out of a wet paper bag one day with no help but by those you agree with in everything. Good luck with that...

Politics will change, sometimes within days. Engineering doesn't change this quickly. There will still be an US astronaut launching on a Russian rocket less than one month from now. Better stick to hard numbers and at least congratulate those who at least try to get get something done. Everyone else anyway is one step away from being forgotten.

Sure, Musk is an asshole and I despise him, but his company, SpaceX, is the most important and consequential Space-related enterprise in decades. I will even grant that much of SpaceX's vision and success is in some part due to Musk. Also, his/their project, Starlink, has had an extremely positive impact for Ukraine. So there is that.

You said "I mean, I'm not trolling. I'm just totally sick of how you guys are politicalizing and emotionalizing just everything. " This comment pisses me off and I'm trying really hard not to write a reply so bad it will get me banned. Caring about the genocide happening in Ukraine and the children MURDERED by Putin's regime yesterday in Chernihiv is NOT FUCKING POLITICS.

Russia today is on Nazi levels of evil, and unless you went back in time and admonished the Brits for hating the Nazis for using their brilliant new technologies, such as the v2, against them, you can fuck right off.

This is NOT POLITICS. This is caring about the most unjust war since 1945 being waged against people yearning and striving for freedom and democracy. So yeah, Luna25's failure is GREAT NEWS WORTH CELEBRATING.

Fuck Roscosmos
Fuck Russia
Fuck Putin

 

[Rauth85]

Well, given that most of what North Americans call "cheese" tastes like rehydrated moon dust, I am not really that surprised...

(I'll go get my coat and make a hasty French British exit)

Oh don’t give me that nonsense. First off, processed cheese is still cheese. I’ve seen it made.

Second, I can get better “European” cheeses in America than I can import from across the pond.

 

[scottsp64]

Second, I can get better “European” cheeses in America than I can import from across the pond.

Really! That surprises me.

 

[FlyoverLand]

Normally I'd be sad but Putins Russia deserves every thing bad that comes along.

 

[Smashing Young Man]

I still suffer with all the engineers and technicians who have worked hard to make this happen.

And I really don't like how people rejoice on others failing. At least this was not meant to kill anyone and whoever worked on this certainly has more in common with anyone else in the space industry than with fucking Putin.

In the early 2000s I worked with some Russian programmers who left their crumbling country and these guys worked really hard and were really, really good and totally likable. I think whoever of you here who really work in the industry should at least think of your abstract colleagues for one moment.

Scientists and engineers can be every bit as selfish, greedy, authoritarian, and downright evil as any other member of the human species. Donning a lab coat doesn't automatically make one a paragon of virtue.

 

[Rauth85]

Really! That surprises me.

Who do you think mostly settled America?

Plus we don’t have those weird regional naming restrictions. Mostly.

 

[mhalpern]

This thing was in the works for decades now, at least since 1998.

Yes, Putin would have loved to see it succeed at this point in his flailing attempts to be a major player, but you rejoicing in seeing it fail doesn't make you a better human being at all. And I'm sure you know it.

There are loads of people in Russia very similar to you who are right now hating this outcome although they did the very best they could. At least extend a virtual hand to these guys. They're much more important in the long run than our fucking politicians. In a hundred years nobody will talk anymore of fucking Putin.

sure originally, but timing of actually launching it was not coincidence

 

[passivesmoking]

How do you people actually reconcile the fact that without Elon Musk who many of you hate as much as Putin the USA would have launched about as much as 5 metric tons to orbit in 2022? Less than India actually.

Simple. Musk didn't do it, the engineers working for him did.

 

[passivesmoking]

You invest a hole lot of time in concern trolling.

WHOLE lot of time. I also invest time in grammar nazi-ing too.

 

[nzod]

-- never mind --

 

[Zaitu]

Very disappointing. It has been a long time since they went. The good side is that they'll be able to learn from it.