acefsw

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barich

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I really wonder what Noem's expiration date in this admin is going to be. I would have thought she'd have racked up enough negative press by now to get the boot. I guess that means She's apparently a good enough attack dog that she hasn't had to take herself out back yet.

I don't know that they care about negative press anymore. It certainly doesn't seem to hurt them. Is she still doing what Trump (or more likely Stephen Miller) wants her to be doing? Yep. Is she still kissing the ring? Yep. Then there's no problem.
 

Technarch

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I don't know that they care about negative press anymore. It certainly doesn't seem to hurt them. Is she still doing what Trump (or more likely Stephen Miller) wants her to be doing? Yep. Is she still kissing the ring? Yep. Then there's no problem.

This. The regime behaves as though public opinion and elections no longer matter. Draw your own conclusions.
 

Lt_Storm

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I really wonder what Noem's expiration date in this admin is going to be. I would have thought she'd have racked up enough negative press by now to get the boot. I guess that means She's apparently a good enough attack dog that she hasn't had to take herself out back yet.
I'm pretty sure she doesn't have one. I mean, that would require acknowledging that negative press should mean something, and, as a strategic decision, this administration has decided they won't do that. So, you know, they all have the licence to be as horrible as possible.
 

Lt_Storm

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I wouldn't go that far. The consistent rejection of their narrative framing and unpopularity of their occupation of Minneapolis has yielded results.
They might adjust their approach, but they won't fire the monsters. Firing the monsters is the thing they have decided is a bad strategy. If you have a cabinet position, so long as you don't betray Trump, nothing you do is likely to get them to fire you. So, again, I doubt that she has a exparation date, because they have decided that responding to such demands is unstrategic.
 

barich

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Trump is actually notorious for firing Cabinet secretaries, especially in his first term.

But we’re 25% of the way into his second term, and as far as I know, he hasn’t fired any this time around. The first term still contained some non-true believers, and people with the capacity for shame. They’re all long gone. Trump’s whole schtick is to double down and never apologize.
 
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DarthSlack

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But we’re 25% of the way into his second term, and as far as I know, he hasn’t fired any this time around. The first term still contained some non-true believers, and people with the capacity for shame. They’re all long gone. Trump’s whole schtick is to double down and never apologize.

He's probably forgotten the names of all his Cabinet picks. He'd be stuck trying to fire "Hey you!". Either that or Miller just tells him that they fired someone and their replacement just happens to look a lot like their predecessor.
 

Technarch

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As soon as Noem apologizes for anything they've done, she's not only fired but probably subject to retaliatory investigations by Trump's DOJ and smear campaigns.

As long as she plays teamball she can likely coast to a graceful early retirement as she's replaced with the next deplorable in line.

Noem is notoriously ambitious and is pretty open about her plans to run for the presidency in the next few years.
 

Lt_Storm

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Trump is actually notorious for firing Cabinet secretaries, especially in his first term.
Yes, that's why I say it's a "strategic decision". That's something they did in Trump 1 that they will not do in Trump 2. The theory is that part of why Trump 1 was so ineffective is because they fired cabinet secretaries, so they aren't going to do that anymore.
 
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DarthSlack

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Performative results, but yes.

Performative? That's kinda harsh when Minneapolis protestors resisted hard enough to force ICE and CBP to seriously change their tactics. Trump got a major black eye from Minneapolis, a lot of people turned against his tactics because of what happened there.
 

Lt_Storm

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Performative? That's kinda harsh when Minneapolis protestors resisted hard enough to force ICE and CBP to seriously change their tactics. Trump got a major black eye from Minneapolis, a lot of people turned against his tactics because of what happened there.
Yes and no. It isn't like they have decided that kicking all the immigrants out of the country is a bad idea. They have just decided that they should appear a bit quieter about it. Hell, we even have some evidence that ICE is still abusing their power in Minneapolis. So, the most obviously painful parts of their strategy have slowed, but the substance is the same.
 

wco81

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What is the Democratic red line going to be on ICE? No masks or no home invasions without judicial warrants?

Or both?

Masks might make ICE agents modify behavior but I heard an interview with a guy who claimed that the ICE surge under Bush and Obama led to a lot of agents who had no business being in law enforcement. He claimed that they were committing crimes every 24-36 hours.

These aren't the ones hired under Trump, though Trump has obviously enabled and encouraged their worst instincts with the masks and other directives.
 

Lt_Storm

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Masks might make ICE agents modify behavior but I heard an interview with a guy who claimed that the ICE surge under Bush and Obama led to a lot of agents who had no business being in law enforcement. He claimed that they were committing crimes every 24-36 hours.

These aren't the ones hired under Trump, though Trump has obviously enabled and encouraged their worst instincts with the masks and other directives.
I mean, yes, those aren't the ones hired under Trump, because, to Trump, those standards were unacceptably high. So... you know, it isn't like Trump is hiring fewer agents with no business being in law enforcement. If anything, he's hiring more such agents and even the rejects from previous ICE surges are now prime candidates.
 
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DarthSlack

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Yes and no. It isn't like they have decided that kicking all the immigrants out of the country is a bad idea. They have just decided that they should appear a bit quieter about it. Hell, we even have some evidence that ICE is still abusing their power in Minneapolis. So, the most obviously painful parts of their strategy have slowed, but the substance is the same.

Getting them to stop completely isn't going to happen as a result of a single city. That will take a COMPLETE change of government and/or Trump's removal from office. Some realistic expectations of what protests can do would be a good place to start.
 

Technarch

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Getting them to stop completely isn't going to happen as a result of a single city. That will take a COMPLETE change of government and/or Trump's removal from office. Some realistic expectations of what protests can do would be a good place to start.

You and I appear to be in complete agreement as to what we can realistically expect from nondisruptive protests.
 

Technarch

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I mean, yes, those aren't the ones hired under Trump, because, to Trump, those standards were unacceptably high. So... you know, it isn't like Trump is hiring fewer agents with no business being in law enforcement. If anything, he's hiring more such agents and even the rejects from previous ICE surges are now prime candidates.

The previously-hired goons are the ones training the newly hired goons. Renee Good's murderer is one of these experienced ICE trainers.
 
I won't pretend to know how long Noem will remain around. Trump fires and keeps people based on personal whims are much as results. But I have to agree with Wheels of Confusion, I think if she backs down, backpedals, admits wrongdoing, or maybe simply apologies she will get canned. Trump doesn't care if people rock the boat, but he does tend to care when they rock the boat AND also go against what he wants, or make him look weak. It seems to require a combination of those factors.

I wouldn't go that far. The consistent rejection of their narrative framing and unpopularity of their occupation of Minneapolis has yielded results.

Debatable. I use my mother as a proxy for the average American, she's still an attorney and a lawyer that practices law. She's entirely tuned herself out of the last few months of politics, doesn't watch the news. Sure she heard about the shootings but she will divert any conversations away from the subjects because she doesn't accept anything on hearsay alone. I finally cornered her on Alex Pretti and she listened, but knowing how her mind works I know she won't be convinced simply from hearsay, she has to see the videos first and so far she's intentionally avoiding them. The vast majority of Americans even today remain so checked out that they just can't be bothered to care.

I also say debatable because you know they are going to deploy ICE to more cities. It's guaranteed. I'm sure the only reason they haven't targeted Texas cities for massive ICE surges is simply because the state republicans here are their own special kind of crazy and will happily pick a fight against Trump and MAGA when it is to their benefit to do so. That being said ICE is still conducting illegal breaking and entering into homes in my city over the past three months, ICE is simply being unusually quiet with every operation they conduct here as to avoid causing friction with said state Repubs.
 

Lt_Storm

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Debatable. I use my mother as a proxy for the average American, she's still an attorney and a lawyer that practices law. She's entirely tuned herself out of the last few months of politics, doesn't watch the news. Sure she heard about the shootings but she will divert any conversations away from the subjects because she doesn't accept anything on hearsay alone. I finally cornered her on Alex Pretti and she listened, but knowing how her mind works I know she won't be convinced simply from hearsay, she has to see the videos first and so far she's intentionally avoiding them. The vast majority of Americans even today remain so checked out that they just can't be bothered to care.
She's avoiding them because, deep down, sure knows the hearsay is true, and seeing them would require her to confront that, which isn't much fun. It's easier to pretend...
 

wrylachlan

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Getting them to stop completely isn't going to happen as a result of a single city. That will take a COMPLETE change of government and/or Trump's removal from office. Some realistic expectations of what protests can do would be a good place to start.
I think there are two playbooks for protest efficacy. The first is:

Protest -> They overreact to Protest -> Public backlash against overreaction is politically useful

It’s never the protest itself that creates the change. It’s not the people marching across the bridge that creates the change, it’s the people setting dogs on them and beating them. It’s not the students with peace signs, it’s the soldiers shooting them.

Under this theory of protest you need to be provocative enough to prompt the overreaction without being seen to be aggressive or “in the wrong” yourself. And I think what happened in Minnesota fits the bill entirely.

The other playbook is simply, “Attract so many damn people that you change public perception of how prevalent your views are.” I’d argue that Martin Luther King’s march on Washington falls into this category. This is what No Kings is shooting for and I think could effectively hit.
 

Coppercloud

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It’s never the protest itself that creates the change. It’s not the people marching across the bridge that creates the change, it’s the people setting dogs on them and beating them. It’s not the students with peace signs, it’s the soldiers shooting them.

Under this theory of protest you need to be provocative enough to prompt the overreaction without being seen to be aggressive or “in the wrong” yourself. And I think what happened in Minnesota fits the bill entirely.
Or in other words martyrdom works? I hate the association with religious fanaticism and performative distress, but when I think about what's happened to MN I really think it's an apt description.

Separately the hill has this quote from Steve Bannon:
The Hill said:
He called demonstrators against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “Marxist-jihadists,” adding the pushback on the Trump administration broke “the spirit of ICE and Customs and Border [Protection].”
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5737974-bannon-criticizes-ice-withdrawal/

Now I should absolutely note and give the caveats that Bannon doesn't speak for all of ice and Homan has said the surge will wind down but they're continuing operations and none of this is over, BUT, to those that thought the protests were a performative waste... I think that we have shown they can create a degree of results. We haven't changed everyone's minds, but we've brought it to everyone's attention and changed some. ICE might not be gone, but we've at least demoralized them to a degree and forced them to change tactics. The fight isn't over, but it's progress.
 
She's avoiding them because, deep down, sure knows the hearsay is true, and seeing them would require her to confront that, which isn't much fun. It's easier to pretend...
That's a good point. Confronting it would also mean she would have to acknowledge just how significantly the party she used to back has basically become the antithesis of everything they pretended to be against. I could repeat that comment but replace republicans with christians, for that matter.

But again these are the very people we have to convince if we want any real, meaningful lasting change to come in the future.
 

Shavano

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Surprisingly, DHS has now admitted that its agents lied about the shooting of an immigrant in Minnesota last month.
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/13/nx-s1-5713947/immigration-agents-lie-minnesota

The agents have been placed on administrative leave after "a joint review by ICE and the Department of Justice of video evidence has revealed that sworn testimony provided by two separate officers appears to have made untruthful statements," the spokesperson, Tricia McLaughlin, said.
 

Shavano

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what Noem had to say about it at the time:
https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/15...violent-criminal-illegal-aliens-who-violently
“What we saw last night in Minneapolis was an attempted murder of federal law enforcement. Our officer was ambushed and attacked by three individuals who beat him with snow shovels and the handles of brooms. Fearing for his life, the officer fired a defensive shot,” said Secretary Kristi Noem. “Mayor Frey and Governor Walz have to get their city under control. They are encouraging impeding and assault against our law enforcement which is a federal crime, a felony. This is putting the people of Minnesota in harm’s way."
 
I wouldn't go that far. The consistent rejection of their narrative framing and unpopularity of their occupation of Minneapolis has yielded results.
Under Homan it seems like they’re still doing the same horrible sh*t, just slightly more professionally and organized to keep that horrible sh*t from rising to frequent spectacle. Which was breaking the part of the cycle that was preventing the regime’s normal zeitgeist control measures from working. The regime didn’t like being out of control of the narrative.

Homan a more effective fascist thug. To me that’s more concerning, not less.

The change in optics results in a change in media attention, but the mission to occupy, terrorize, and intimidate seems to be still continuing unabated.
 

Coppercloud

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Under Homan it seems like they’re still doing the same horrible sh*t, just slightly more professionally and organized to keep that horrible sh*t from rising to frequent spectacle. Which was breaking the part of the cycle that was preventing the regime’s normal zeitgeist control measures from working. The regime didn’t like being out of control of the narrative.

Homan a more effective fascist thug. To me that’s more concerning, not less.

The change in optics results in a change in media attention, but the mission to occupy, terrorize, and intimidate seems to be still continuing unabated.
This. I couldn't have said it better, thank you. I do think we've made progress but this is now our problem.
 
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barich

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Under Homan it seems like they’re still doing the same horrible sh*t, just slightly more professionally and organized to keep that horrible sh*t from rising to frequent spectacle. Which was breaking the part of the cycle that was preventing the regime’s normal zeitgeist control measures from working. The regime didn’t like being out of control of the narrative.

Homan a more effective fascist thug. To me that’s more concerning, not less.

The change in optics results in a change in media attention, but the mission to occupy, terrorize, and intimidate seems to be still continuing unabated.

Original link: https://www.startribune.com/from-ch...weeks-leading-to-homan-announcement/601581255
Archive link: https://archive.is/L5Lhe

I'm not convinced that this wasn't the strategy all along. Ramp things up to an absolutely outrageous level, then pretend to end it while in reality simply changing tactics to less obvious and concentrated ones that effectively accomplish the same thing but don't garner the media attention. It's a lot easier to sustain the kind of operation that the article above describes while successfully keeping it under the radar. It's still much worse than things were even a few months ago, but it comes across as a de-escalation even if it really isn't. And the ratchet keeps on turning to the right.
 

karolus

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In essence, it’s an application of the anchoring effect to government oppression. Pull a heinous initial rollout which sparks opprobrium, then dial actions back in response to the blowback. There may be some public sigh of relief, but all the while, the progress to the end goal continues in a slower and less overt fashion. The public has become inured and exhausted, so considers it a small win.
 
It's a lot easier to sustain the kind of operation that the article above describes while successfully keeping it under the radar. It's still much worse than things were even a few months ago, but it comes across as a de-escalation even if it really isn't. And the ratchet keeps on turning to the right.
Yes. Well. It worked.

The narrative among traditional media, new media, and even the broader anti-regime opposition is that the Trump regime is in retreat. People everywhere who should know better are falling for it. 🤷‍♂️
 

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Scifigod

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John Oliver did his typical scathing takedown of Noem, ICE, and DHS. Worth listening to for at least the first few minutes to catch the clip of the guy at a protest being Minneapolis AF about how pissed off he (and the rest of us) are at everything happening here.

View: https://youtu.be/5-KDUOHEZFk