Australian politics - Perpetual Thread.

VirtualWolf

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So, the budget. The Guardian has a good overview, the headline items are the CGT discount being scrapped as of 1st July 2027 and returning to how things used to be pre-1999, negative gearing not being allowed for investment properties after 1st July 2027 (with the exception of new builds), and a minimum 30% tax on discretionary trusts after 1st July 2028.

From the article:
The Treasury expects the benefits of negative gearing for existing investors to wash out after about a decade. About half of negatively geared properties are typically sold or generate income within four to five years, and more than 75% are sold within 10 years.
 

SnoopCatt

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Back in February I asked whether Labor would actually do tax reform this budget. While I was hopeful they would, I was expecting them to put it in the too hard basket, especially with the economic shock of the US-Iran conflict.

Kudos to Chalmers, Albanese and Gallagher for having the guts to break a promise they never should have made about not touching the twin sacred cows of CGT discounts and negative gearing. And for reforming how family trusts are taxed too.
 

VirtualWolf

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Christ, the chart on this page.

image.jpg
 

SnoopCatt

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Christ, the chart on this page.
That chart only tells half a story, and would be more edifying if it also included taxes paid by each decile.

The LNP are already saying they will repeal the tax changes.
It's safe to say that, because they can't form government. Not even close.
Angus Taylor is already calling it a "tax on aspiration" instead of what it really is: an unfair advantage available to property investors but not owner occupiers.

If they continue to bang this drum in the lead up to the next election, they'll do even worse than they did last time round.
 

Faceless Man

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Yep, Taylor is appealing to the dying boomers and older gen. Who are looking at a pile of money they can't spend anyway.
And their inheritors. I mean, there are a lot of younger people who will inherit sufficient wealth (or who already have access to it) from their forebears.

Much lower impact on people who don't have generational wealth to look forward to, and who actually have to work for a living.
 

SnoopCatt

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And their inheritors. I mean, there are a lot of younger people who will inherit sufficient wealth (or who already have access to it) from their forebears.
I was discussing this with a friend the other day. We both stand to inherit substantial assets when our parents die, and we are both in favour of estate taxes / death duties. Neither of us have done anything to deserve inherited wealth. We didn't work for it. It is plain good fortune to have parents who own real estate.
 
I'm looking to inherit significant $$$ too.


From https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...ut-this-is-a-good-budget-20260512-p5zw5r.html (Probably paywalled, I didn't check) We get this lovely quote.

As for Jim Chalmers’ opposite number, Tim Wilson, he deserves great praise for the honesty of his position. As the Liberals’ Treasury spokesman, he is implacably opposed to any weakening of the negative gearing and the capital gains discount going mainly to well-off older men.

And then the Libs wonder why so few young people vote Liberal.
 

SnoopCatt

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Pauline Hanson is calling the budget "communism taking over". Apparently wealth is being "stripped" from baby boomers. You have to ask, does she even understand what grandfathering is and how it affects existing vs future investors?

I'm guessing her logic will probably not be questioned on Sky News (or whatever it is called now).
 

rainynight65

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Pauline Hanson is calling the budget "communism taking over". Apparently wealth is being "stripped" from baby boomers.

I'm guessing her logic will probably not be questioned on Sky News (or whatever it is called now).
It won't be.

The Murdoch media are in full 'broken promises' mode. They will not engage with the substance of the policy. It's all about how Labor promised in the past to not make these changes. Throwing 'this is communism' into the mix will just be another lever for them to sidestep engaging with the actual policy.

Edit: Case in point, today's Daily Telegraph front page talks about a 'communist manifesto', as shown in this blog article. I'd go as far as saying that Hanson probably cribbed her lines from the Murdoch press.
 
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Faceless Man

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I was discussing this with a friend the other day. We both stand to inherit substantial assets when our parents die, and we are both in favour of estate taxes / death duties. Neither of us have done anything to deserve inherited wealth. We didn't work for it. It is plain good fortune to have parents who own real estate.
Same. I have a flat that I live in, largely due to an inheritance. I'm looking at upgrading, but that's going to rely on money from another inheritance unless something even more dramatic happens to real estate prices.
 
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wco81

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So just a couple of months after this announcement, they are saying the project isn't going ahead and the Trumps aren't too happy.

Young, who has gone bankrupt on two previous occasions, took to LinkedIn and used all caps on Tuesday night to correct a headline that read “Trump abandons plan for Gold Coast tower”.


“DEVELOPER ABANDONS PLAN FOR A TRUMP BRAND TOWER,” Young wrote.


In the post, Young said that the US war in Iran had made the Trump brand “toxic to Australians”, something he described as “grossly unfair” on a brand that had “nothing to do with the President”. That link, he claimed, was driven by “pure sensationalism”.


“There is no acrimony between the Trump family and myself, why would there be after knowing them for 19 years when no one here then even knew who Donald Trump was,” he wrote. “It is pure business. My team and I look forward to completing the project and as an old expression goes, ‘never let the truth get in the way of a good story’.”


An Altus spokesperson said that Young’s first bankruptcy was later annulled and that he believed that all subcontractors had been paid out on the second, which came after the global financial crisis and at a time when “numerous companies went bankrupt”. Neither were linked to Altus.


A statement in response from the Trump Organization, however, certainly seemed to contain more than a hint of acrimony.



The statement said that, while the Trump group were “very excited about the opportunity to bring a world-class development to the Gold Coast”, its licensing partner, Altus, had been unable to uphold its end of the bargain.


“After months of negotiations and empty promise, after empty promise, on a supposed $1.5bn project, Altus Property Group was unable to meet the most basic financial obligation due upon the execution of the agreement,” the statement read.


“Mr Young’s attempt to blame certain world events for our termination of the agreement is merely a ploy to distract from his own defaults and failures.”


Young denied the parting of ways was due to his “not meeting obligations” saying that “with the Iran war and everything else”, his team “knew it was time to part company”.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...d-coast-scrapped-ntwnfb?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1
 

rainynight65

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There is some serious cognitive dissonance at work here. That developer is in over his head and doesn't realise he's drowning. How he can think that the brand has nothing to do with the President is well beyond me. It's literally his name on the brand.

I don't really know who to believe here though, they're probably both lying through their teeth in order to cover their arses.
 

VirtualWolf

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Speaking of not reading the room: https://www.theguardian.com/austral...eforms-negative-gearing-capital-gains-tax-cgt

The Coalition has vowed to repeal Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax if they win power, setting up a major fight before the next election over key tax reform measures from the budget.

The shadow treasurer, Tim Wilson, and the opposition leader, Angus Taylor, said a future Coalition government would reinstate more generous rules for property investors, as well as for Australians minimising their tax through trusts, pledging to fight the proposals in parliament in coming weeks.

Taylor said the Coalition would only support a new $250 tax offset for workers, and new hospitals funding announced on Tuesday night.

“Absolutely, our position is we’re going to do everything we can to stop these bad taxes, toxic taxes, from getting through the parliament,” he told Sky on Wednesday.

“We’ll do whatever it takes to roll these taxes back.”
I just... cannot even.
 

NavyGothic

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I broadly approve of the budget; it's perhaps a surgical incision when a sledgehammer is called for, but it's probably about the right political balance with ~65% of Australians being homeowners.

Honestly, my larger disappointment with Labor right now is the very underwhelming proposal for gambling advertising reform.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05...esponse-peta-murphy-gambling-report/106639176

Quite frankly, gambling, and especially online gambling, is one industry I would be happy to crush into oblivion both for policy and personal reasons. And unlike so many other issues, it's incredibly popular; 76% of Australians favour a complete ban on advertising (including 81% of Labor voters). If Labor wants to counter One Nation's populism, this is one of the few cases where popularity and actual good policy align.
 

Faceless Man

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I don't mind if people want to gamble online. I just wish they wouldn't advertise their latest scams on every video I try to watch on YouTube. Especially as they're generally not skippable because of the Government warning they have to play at the end.

Is gambling a problem? Yes. Should we be restricting access to gambling rather than making it easier? Also, yes. Still, are grown adults allowed to make decisions about gambling? Yes. Should said adults be advised that gambling may not be a good idea? Yes. But as someone who has chosen not to get involved with the various cartels that run the gambling markets in this country, I don't want to have to watch fecking ads for these things.
 

Cognac

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If they continue to bang this drum in the lead up to the next election, they'll do even worse than they did last time round.
Especially if the insane inflation of house prices begins to slow in the next couple of years. And more young people (basically anyone under 50 in this context) buy their first homes/upgrade their family homes.

Labor have been mostly the adults in the room and just getting on with governing whole the coalition just keeps buying more ammo for its own feet.
 
Angus Taylor, still fighting the good fight against reality.
Probably paywalled, but I expect ABC will carry the same information.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...als-uncontested-nonsense-20260515-p5zx6s.html

We’ll work with existing coal-fired generators to keep them operating for longer to drive down prices.

If we are going to make sure we have affordable, abundant energy in this country, the single fastest and easiest way to do that is to keep the existing generators running hard
Solar & wind are cheaper. So, how does that work? Fight that good fight against the dying of the coal.
Coal fire generators are aging out and becoming unreliable. It happens when you get old.

He also didn't say "No", to using tax payer money for Nuclear power.
Because of course he didn't. How else can you give $100 billion to your friends.
 

Cognac

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1. Reduce the investment property negative gearing benefit 10% a year, over a decade. This gives everyone affected time to consider what to do. Do they jump out of the market this year and sell, or maybe next year? Maybe they increase the rental price, because of the loss of some of the negative gearing benefit.
This comment stuck with me because it was also something that I had thought about. Keeping the negative gearing loophole for existing arrangements seems to be a way of keeping the established gains and stopping everyone else from making use of them. I also thought that a phase-out of the existing arrangements over a period of time (10 years was also the number I came to) seemed to be an appealing idea.

On further thought though, I'm not sure it's necessary. Negative gearing only kicks in when your rental payments don't cover the mortgage & expenses. I don't know if it's allowed to apply to interest-only loans, but if it does the reduction in the CGT discount now makes interest-only loans less attractive anyway. Regardless, every time an investment property changes hands the negative gearing will no longer be able to be applied. And, theoretically, once the mortgages are paid on those negatively geared homes they will no longer be negatively geared. Between those two factors there is going to be a natural decline in negatively geared arrangements on existing properties in the market, which would be time limited on a 30-year mortgage cycle to 12th of May 2056. I'm not sure that spending the EXTRA political capital to reduce the time frame from 30 years to 10 years is worth the effort, especially when I suspect the majority of current arrangements will have ended within 10 years anyway (NOTE - Pure speculation on my part, I do not have the numbers to back this is it is simply my gut instinct). Obviously the negative gearing incentive is still there for new builds as an incentive towards investing in new supply.

As has been accurately stated, this is a long-term problem that has been building for decades. It's going to be impossible to fix overnight. Would I like them to do some majoy overhauling that has a much shorter time frame for impact? Yes. But I think this offered solution is a significant step in the right direction.
 

SnoopCatt

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It hasn't been getting as much attention as the changes to capital gains tax or negative gearing, but the plan to impose a minimum tax rate of 30% on discretionary trusts is likely to add more to the budget bottom line in the first few years than either of the other changes, according to The Age (probably paywalled).

Around 840,000 discretionary trusts exist in Australia, and they have been commonly used to move income from a high-earning family member to a partner out of work or a child at university.

“Currently, discretionary trusts allow some Australians, often high wealth individuals and families, to plan their tax affairs in ways that aren’t available to most people,” Chalmers, Albanese and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said in a joint statement.

“In 2022-23, on average, families with discretionary trusts faced an average tax rate around 4 percentage points lower compared with families on similar incomes that don’t use trusts.”
Unsurprisingly, Taylor has pulled out his dog-whistle and is calling this "a tax on small business". Coincidentally, he has listed four trusts on the parliamentary register of interests.

Under the proposed changes, farming income will be exempt from the new 30 per cent minimum tax, which seems sensible.
 
As has been accurately stated, this is a long-term problem that has been building for decades. It's going to be impossible to fix overnight. Would I like them to do some majoy overhauling that has a much shorter time frame for impact? Yes. But I think this offered solution is a significant step in the right direction.
Even TRYING to fix it over night would be a terrible idea. It would disrupt the housing market to much, and then you get the current Chinese housing market. A basket case with no fix possible.

I hadn't even thought of grand fathering in existing negative gearing structure. It is (in hindsight) an obvious ting to do.

I guess I was trying to smooth out the disruption completely. In my mind, my plan was everyone potentially starts with some form of negatively geared debt and it slowly winds down, eve if you buy an investment property in 2028.

The government setup means, any newly purchased property just doesn't. It's a sharp cut off. A line in the sand. I was trying to avoid that. To make sure that the housing market doesn't suddenly correct and drop millions of house holds under water on their loan.

Maybe I was to timid on the cut off. As I said, not an economist. But I really want to avoid what happened to China's housing market, that is never getting better.
 

Camacan

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Many right-wing parties have had a mutually hostile relationship with the ABC. One Nation has been breaking dangerous new ground.
It was a line straight out of US President Donald Trump’s playbook. “Bye bye to the ABC,” Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff, James Ashby, said as he ejected two journalists working for the public broadcaster’s rural service from a media event on Friday, less than 24 hours before polls opened in the NSW byelection for Farrer.
I recommend the Sydney Morning Herald backgrounder on what sparked that. It's got deep analysis of how this has been a trend forever, but also the nitty-gritty, such as the way the ABC didn't extend the unwritten rule that holds for every other party: high-level conversations are off the record until word is given otherwise. I strongly suspect ON is correct in thinking the ABC is hostile and while that is totally understandable, it does not help.

The main point of the piece is that vital public service reporting happened and was then punished: the ABC uncovered the fact a ON candidate had warrants out for his arrest. No political party is going to like that press, but for Australia to be a democracy they need to accept it and move on. But ON doesn't accept this basic principle and is escalating.

The One Nation founder said the reporters “shouldn’t have gone” because they were from the local ABC bureau, based in Wodonga. Ashby darkly insisted they were reporting back to the broadcaster’s federal politics team in Canberra.
Holy unhinged paranoia, Batman. Reporting back? Like foreign agents in the bush, reporting back to the depravity of Babylon Canberra?
 
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rainynight65

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The main point of the piece is that vital public service reporting happened and was then punished: the ABC uncovered the fact a ON candidate had warrants out for his arrest. No political party is going to like that press, but for Australia to be a democracy they need to accept it and move on. But ON doesn't accept this basic principle and is escalating.
One Nation are not a democratic party. They don't display democratic tenets, they don't accept democratic values, they do not feel bound by democratic conventions. They are fascists, and it's showing more and more.

The problem is that democracy has still not figured out how to defend itself.
 

rainynight65

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And since we're talking about democracy...

A number of right-wing agitators are trying to register minor parties in Victoria, under false/misleading names, which they intend to use to funnel votes to One Nation under the state's contentious group voting tickets.

Groups with names like “Refugees Are Welcome Here”, “Muslim Votes Matter”, “Free Palestine” and “Save the Environment” are advertising and trying to get sufficient members to register as political parties. Behind them appear to be known right-wing figures Avi Yemini and Monica Smit. The websites for all these parties are being hosted on the same IP address, and many of the domain names are linked to Smit.

Smit claims that she is trying to raise awareness of the highly flawed GVT system - but then again, nobody in the state seems to deny that.

I am not going to summarise any further, there are several Guardian articles on these parties and the background, with this one as a starting point:

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...welcome-website-preferences-one-nation-ntwnfb
 

Cognac

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such as the way the ABC didn't extend the unwritten rule that holds for every other party: high-level conversations are off the record until word is given otherwise.
Since when was that an unwritten rule? Things like "off the record" are purely based on trust between the journalist and the source. And if there's information there that needs to be made public, regardless of whether "word is given otherwise", it doesn't matter whether it's a fringe member of One Nation or the Prime Minister.
 

rainynight65

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Also, there is no such thing as 'off the record until word is given otherwise'. There's not even an implicit 'off the record'. If you're talking to a journalist, assume nothing is 'off the record' unless you have an explicit agreement and know you can trust that particular journalist.

If you don't want information to be released, don't give it to a journalist. If you must talk to a journalist, make them sign an NDA before - unlike 'off the record' agreements those actually have some teeth. If you trip over your own words and say something to a journalist that in hindsight you wish you hadn't - well, tough cuticles. Better luck next time.
 

Camacan

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Since when was that an unwritten rule? Things like "off the record" are purely based on trust between the journalist and the source. And if there's information there that needs to be made public, regardless of whether "word is given otherwise", it doesn't matter whether it's a fringe member of One Nation or the Prime Minister.
Also, there is no such thing as 'off the record until word is given otherwise'. time.

I agree that pure journalistic ethics would say any information that serves the public interests should be made public. But my reading is that Calum Jaspan of the SMH is asserting that Australian journalists put their ongoing relationship with, specifically, the spokespeople of major parties above that ideal, or in less charged terms, in private. The deal he is claiming to be widespread is that phone conversations with spokespeople occur on the basis that they will not be named and anything they say is off the record unless they give permission. From the article:
In Australian political reporting though – where journalists have to speak to the same sources again and again – it is common for spokespeople not to be named and for phone conversations to be off the record, with attributable statements sent later via text or email.
Given the topic of the article, he's strongly implying this arrangement has been SOP for the ABC up until the fight with ON.
 
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rainynight65

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I agree that pure journalistic ethics would say any information that serves the public interests should be made public. But my reading is that Calum Jaspan of the SMH is asserting that Australian journalists put their ongoing relationship with, specifically, the spokespeople of major parties above that ideal. The deal he is claiming to be widespread is that phone conversations with spokespeople occur on the basis that they will not be named and anything they say is off the record unless they give permission.

I have read the SMH article. I'd argue that this is due to the transition to access-based journalism that has been happening over the last two or so decades. Have your exclusive sources, they give you delicious scoops in exchange for protection. Not an ideal arrangement any way you slice it.

From the article:

In Australian political reporting though – where journalists have to speak to the same sources again and again – it is common for spokespeople not to be named and for phone conversations to be off the record, with attributable statements sent later via text or email.

Given the topic of the article, he's strongly implying this arrangement has been SOP for the ABC up until the fight with ON.
The article also implies that this SOP, if there was such a thing did not apply in this particular scenario. The journalist in question did not have an ongoing relationship with the source, but made a one-off call specifically to get a quote/comment on a scoop they intended to release. Literally the next para after the one you quoted says (emphases mine):

In this instance, the reporter and spokesperson had no relationship, and Grieve was chasing comment before publication of an investigation. Henderson did not explicitly say his comments were off the record, two sources said.

The ABC has no fight with ON - it's the other way round. ON have a feud against, and a history of banning media they perceive as left-leaning from their events and press conferences. One line you will read in almost every Guardian article concerning ON is "One Nation declined to comment'.

The problem here is not that the ABC did something 'wrong', but that One Nation as a party don't respect press freedom, want to punish media outlets that report on them in a non-flattering manner, and in this particular case are cranky that one of their own revealed details to an ABC journalist that they wanted to keep hidden.
 

zenparadox

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What are the demographics, at least 90% white? Less heterogeneous than the general population?
If the question was about One Nation, they, like most parties based on racism, actually welcome anyone from the minorities so long a sthey willingly punch down with them. Nothing so valuable as a token <insert otherness category here> with which to protest "see, we can't be anti-otherness because we have this token person of that otherness.."
 

rainynight65

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If the question was about One Nation, they, like most parties based on racism, actually welcome anyone from the minorities so long a sthey willingly punch down with them. Nothing so valuable as a token <insert otherness category here> with which to protest "see, we can't be anti-otherness because we have this token person of that otherness.."
And ultimately any member of a minority will never be anything other than a useful idiot for a party like One Nation. They will never be equals, and the party will never deviate from its base racism.