Australian politics - Perpetual Thread.

Klockwerk

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Niki Savva has probably already written the book about it
She keeps saying the current book is the last, and then there's a major political event (lately just the Coalition doing Coalition things) and she writes another.

It was telling though that her latest book was somewhat filled with reprints of her articles rather than a normal book.
 
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Mat8iou

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What are the odds that someone, somewhere, somehow, accidentally leaks a copy of the review?
The thing is, anyone who observed the campaign can predict a fair bit of the result of the review (if it was being honest), maybe just not the names who are specifically attached to which failings.

IIRC, the media mainly generally seemed to see it as a likely coalition win, or a close result before the election was announced - but as the campaign progressed, most unbiased sources rapidly shifted towards a Labor win once they saw how the Coalition performed in most of their appearances. They seemed mainly to be performing for an imaginary electorate that was only interested in culture war type issues, not the actual majority of voters and what they wanted - and the rest is history.
 
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AdrianS

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The thing is, anyone who observed the campaign can predict a fair bit of the result of the review (if it was being honest), maybe just not the names who are specifically attached to which failings.

IIRC, the media mainly generally seemed to see it as a likely coalition win, or a close result before the election was announced - but as the campaign progressed, most unbiased sources rapidly shifted towards a Labor win once they saw how the Coalition performed in most of their appearances. They seemed mainly to be performing for an imaginary electorate that was only interested in culture war type issues, not the actual majority of voters and what they wanted - and the rest is history.

One problem for the coalition is they believed Sky and Murdoch press, who genuinely thought they were winning with the culture war bullshit.

You only had to watch the meltdown on-air as the results came in on election night to see how deluded they were.
 

Mat8iou

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One problem for the coalition is they believed Sky and Murdoch press, who genuinely thought they were winning with the culture war bullshit.

You only had to watch the meltdown on-air as the results came in on election night to see how deluded they were.
True - even down to the fact that they did few media appearances other than the ones with the channels they wanted to. The classic approach of people in a bubble who are eager to accuse the opposition supporters of being the ones in a bubble...
 

Klockwerk

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This internal review doesn't need to be made public in order for the Coalition to work out what they need to do, and there's been plenty of public discussion over what the Coalition did and didn't do to make themselves attractive to voters.

The question is whether the Coalition changes behaviour based on the information they have in time for the next election.

Personally, I don't care anymore. I feel that the policies they've actioned when they were in government and the ones they had while in opposition are so different from what I even consider reasonable that they can just fade into obscurity.
 

ScruffyNerf

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Anyone willing to bet that the May budget will actually contain some significant tax reform around capital gains tax and/or negative gearing? Or will Labor once again chicken out.
Oh, good. An easy one. They'll chicken out.

They get the same set of benefits that all wealthy people have on the other side, their only issue is their own virtue signalling.

And I'm quite sure that the income derived from their investment properties will quieten any cognitive dissonance that may however briefly appear.
 

Camacan

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This internal review doesn't need to be made public in order for the Coalition to work out what they need to do, and there's been plenty of public discussion over what the Coalition did and didn't do to make themselves attractive to voters.

The question is whether the Coalition changes behaviour based on the information they have in time for the next election.

Personally, I don't care anymore. I feel that the policies they've actioned when they were in government and the ones they had while in opposition are so different from what I even consider reasonable that they can just fade into obscurity.
I think that the decision to bury the report... gah, I'm not a politician. Try again. I think the decision not to release the report does speak to their future behaviour. From here:
Three sources familiar with Friday’s meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the decision to shelve the review was about the desire for a “fresh start” not to protect Dutton, Taylor or Hume.
I can believe they believe that. But what can a fresh start possibly mean if they don't accept the deeper lesson, that you can't run for government on grudges with no positive plan? My bet is that something like that is in the report somewhere.

I find the implosion of the Liberals really troubling. I agree their policies are crap, but they were the most successful party in Australia's history. Our culture was shaped by their values, and it included a lot of deeply-held feel-good propaganda like "battlers" and the "fair go". There just doesn't seem to be a clear replacement to make the crap that capitalism serves up to ordinary people palatable.
 
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Klockwerk

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I do think that there's a need for a party or parties to keep Labor honest when it's in government, and that those groups should be large enough and competent enough to have policies that make sense, even if I don't fully support those policies.

The issue for me though is that the Coalition as a group does not accept climate change, and if you don't do that then there are fundamental energy and environmental policy implications that just do not work at all with my worldview. I also have issues with their monetary policy ("reduce taxes and the economy will eventually grow to outstrip debt") that means I just don't think I'll ever believe they will have my vote.

I'm not a rusted on Labor voter (I refused to vote for Rudd during his second attempt), but their policies tend very much to align with where I think Australia should go.
 

Faceless Man

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zenparadox

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Anyone willing to bet that the May budget will actually contain some significant tax reform around capital gains tax and/or negative gearing? Or will Labor once again chicken out.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...tive-gearing-on-the-table-ahead-of-may-budget

That's the danger for any actually progressive government that wants to actually do good things; the entire media landscape save a select few goes full armageddon on you. How dare you actually try to make things fairer!!!?
 
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Camacan

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I hope it will, but fear they will. Because that's what happens. We need a reformer in charge of the Labor Party again.
I know you meant 'won't', but that inadvertently sounds like a quintessential left-leaning property owner "Negative gearing changes? Well, I hope they will but I fear they will." :)

But to the serious point of reform, well I've got words I need to type.

I think there are parallels between Australian and UK politics. We are both have had a recent large win for a left-leaning party that was as much about the right falling apart at the time, followed by a collapse of the traditional right-leaning party and a surge in a populist party. The UK is ahead of us along a similar political trajectory so we should pay attention.

I think there are is a core feature/weakness shared by Starmer's government and Albo's govt. : "labour minimalism."
Labour minimalists believe that England is a fundamentally conservative, right-leaning country, in which the party can only succeed electorally and in government by appearing as moderate and unthreatening to powerful interests as possible.

One of Labour minimalism’s key characteristics was its acceptance of much of the social status quo, which increasingly meant accepting extreme wealth.

Such timorousness means a cautious, gradualist, approach. But I feel the rise of One Nation here points to an electorate increasingly unwilling to accept small change in the face of growing stresses. My sister has always held gradualism as better because it's less disruptive and more controllable and more and more I see her point. But I've got a bad feeling we're entering a time when it becomes unsupportable.
 

Faceless Man

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I know you meant 'won't', but that inadvertently sounds like a quintessential left-leaning property owner "Negative gearing changes? Well, I hope they will but I fear they will." :)

But to the serious point of reform, well I've got words I need to type.

I think there are parallels between Australian and UK politics. We are both have had a recent large win for a left-leaning party that was as much about the right falling apart at the time, followed by a collapse of the traditional right-leaning party and a surge in a populist party. The UK is ahead of us along a similar political trajectory so we should pay attention.

I think there are is a core feature/weakness shared by Starmer's government and Albo's govt. : "labour minimalism."


Such timorousness means a cautious, gradualist, approach. But I feel the rise of One Nation here points to an electorate increasingly unwilling to accept small change in the face of growing stresses. My sister has always held gradualism as better because it's less disruptive and more controllable and more and more I see her point. But I've got a bad feeling we're entering a time when it becomes unsupportable.
You misread. I said "I hope it will, but I fear they will" Note the change in pronoun. I hope the budget will contain the some measure to address capital gains and/or negative gearing, but I fear that Labor will once again chicken out.
 
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Bardon

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One problem for the coalition is they believed Sky and Murdoch press, who genuinely thought they were winning with the culture war bullshit.

You only had to watch the meltdown on-air as the results came in on election night to see how deluded they were.
This is why I'm taking the breathless reports of "One Nation is storming to victory" with a mountain of salt.
 

Camacan

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This is why I'm taking the breathless reports of "One Nation is storming to victory" with a mountain of salt.
I'm not sure I fully understand. A Sky News bubble is one thing and I totally agree it was a factor in the coalition's defeat, but there are worrying polls pointing to growing One Nation support, right?
 
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bjn

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I know you meant 'won't', but that inadvertently sounds like a quintessential left-leaning property owner "Negative gearing changes? Well, I hope they will but I fear they will." :)

But to the serious point of reform, well I've got words I need to type.

I think there are parallels between Australian and UK politics. We are both have had a recent large win for a left-leaning party that was as much about the right falling apart at the time, followed by a collapse of the traditional right-leaning party and a surge in a populist party. The UK is ahead of us along a similar political trajectory so we should pay attention.

I think there are is a core feature/weakness shared by Starmer's government and Albo's govt. : "labour minimalism."


Such timorousness means a cautious, gradualist, approach. But I feel the rise of One Nation here points to an electorate increasingly unwilling to accept small change in the face of growing stresses. My sister has always held gradualism as better because it's less disruptive and more controllable and more and more I see her point. But I've got a bad feeling we're entering a time when it becomes unsupportable.
The problem is that the minimalist’s “gradual” approach has ground to a halt in the UK and is now an acceptance of the status quo. They don’t dare change anything, except for making protest harder.
 
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Camacan

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The problem is that the minimalist’s “gradual” approach has ground to a halt in the UK and is now an acceptance of the status quo. They don’t dare change anything, except for making protest harder.
I think there's a whole discussion to be had about Labour Together in the UK, their role in even gradual change halting there and how Australia compares, no so much as an overt organization within the Australian Labour Party as a compromising ethos.
 
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zenparadox

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One problem for the coalition is they believed Sky and Murdoch press, who genuinely thought they were winning with the culture war bullshit.

You only had to watch the meltdown on-air as the results came in on election night to see how deluded they were.
"We've been huffing our own ego farts in an echo chamber face." They wear it so well tho.
Gonna make Labor complacent, sigh...
 
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Bardon

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I'm not sure I fully understand. A Sky News bubble is one thing and I totally agree it was a factor in the coalition's defeat, but there are worrying polls pointing to growing One Nation support, right?
They all seem to come from the same area & same sources so I'm holding off on any panic, it's being seriously beat up by Murdoch press atm.
 
At some point the younger generations (millennials, Gen Z and even the Alpha generation) are going to start to outright out number the boomers and Gen X and start going "Hey, we control the votes now, give us what the fuck we want, and we want affordable housing".

Capital gains tax discounts & negative gearing on investment properties, aren't helping affordable housing. They help make investment properties more attractive. If less people want investment properties, there will be more available homes available to buy to live in, not rent in.
 

Mat8iou

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At some point the younger generations (millennials, Gen Z and even the Alpha generation) are going to start to outright out number the boomers and Gen X and start going "Hey, we control the votes now, give us what the fuck we want, and we want affordable housing".

Capital gains tax discounts & negative gearing on investment properties, aren't helping affordable housing. They help make investment properties more attractive. If less people want investment properties, there will be more available homes available to buy to live in, not rent in.
There's plenty of the younger GenX still struggling to afford housing etc - don't lump us with the Boomers (or just ignore us like the media does normally).
 

Camacan

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There's plenty of the younger GenX still struggling to afford housing etc - don't lump us with the Boomers (or just ignore us like the media does normally).
Generational divides can easily be misleading. For example, in the boomer cohort there are those who benefited from more accessible housing and (in some cases) better support for tertiary education and those who struggled for a host of reasons including a lack of social progress and social services compared to now, to put it mildly.

Younger generations are also not monolithic. It depends enormously on whether they have the support of wealthy parents, for example. Class differences cut right through supposed age solidarity. I fully support the need for young people to have affordable housing: they are establishing their lives and so very much of Australia's well-being depends on that being possible. I'm not saying inter-generational unfairness doesn't exist, but I think the full picture is more complex.
 

Gary Patterson

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They all seem to come from the same area & same sources so I'm holding off on any panic, it's being seriously beat up by Murdoch press atm.
The Murdoch empire is all about driving opinion, not reflecting it. It’s totally disconnected from the actual public opinion, as many elections have proven. Anything said by that empire is to that end, and can be trivially dismissed as irrelevant.
 

Faceless Man

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There's plenty of the younger GenX still struggling to afford housing etc - don't lump us with the Boomers (or just ignore us like the media does normally).
Actually, an odd fact about us GenX. There were arguably fewer of us than there were Boomers. Boomer women got better educated, the pill was a thing, and the single child family was on the increase. I don't think we quite dipped below replacement, but the ratio of Bommers to GenX was much closer to 1 than the ratios either side.. So when it came time for us to inherit the Earth, as it were, there were still a lot of Boomers in the way. Plus, the Boomer generation obsession with neo-liberalism fucked up the economy for all of us.
 
I'm straight up mix Gen X myself.
And more through luck than anything, housing is a solved problem. Yes there is a mortgage, but it's NOW after 15 years of re payments (and a 4 year fixed 2.25% rate from COVID) ...reasonable sized.

But having watched for the past decade house pricing go just pure nuts, something has to be done for those who didn't get in earlier.
Increasing the first home buys bonus, just makes housing more expensive.
Anything you do that allows people to borrow more money to buy a house, just means people will borrow more money.
 

AdrianS

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At some point the younger generations (millennials, Gen Z and even the Alpha generation) are going to start to outright out number the boomers and Gen X and start going "Hey, we control the votes now, give us what the fuck we want, and we want affordable housing".

Capital gains tax discounts & negative gearing on investment properties, aren't helping affordable housing. They help make investment properties more attractive. If less people want investment properties, there will be more available homes available to buy to live in, not rent in.

I know a number of people at the tail end of the boomer generation who didn't get on the property ladder, or who fell off.
They (and I) will almost certainly be renting for the rest of their lives.

So yes, most boomers did ok with housing, not all.
 

wco81

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At some point the younger generations (millennials, Gen Z and even the Alpha generation) are going to start to outright out number the boomers and Gen X and start going "Hey, we control the votes now, give us what the fuck we want, and we want affordable housing".

Capital gains tax discounts & negative gearing on investment properties, aren't helping affordable housing. They help make investment properties more attractive. If less people want investment properties, there will be more available homes available to buy to live in, not rent in.

At least in the US, Millenials and Gen Z already outnumber Boomers. Not sure about Boomers and Gen X.

But the younger groups vote at a much lower percentage than the older groups, because we don't have compulsory voting like Australia and other countries.

Besides less interest, they tend to be less informed on issues, more relying on TikTok than actual news sources.
 
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wco81

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Generational divides can easily be misleading. For example, in the boomer cohort there are those who benefited from more accessible housing and (in some cases) better support for tertiary education and those who struggled for a host of reasons including a lack of social progress and social services compared to now, to put it mildly.

Younger generations are also not monolithic. It depends enormously on whether they have the support of wealthy parents, for example. Class differences cut right through supposed age solidarity. I fully support the need for young people to have affordable housing: they are establishing their lives and so very much of Australia's well-being depends on that being possible. I'm not saying inter-generational unfairness doesn't exist, but I think the full picture is more complex.

Millenial and Gen Z are about to be collectively the greatest heirs in history, as they become beneficiaries of the greatest generational wealth transfer.

However, within these groups, some have wealthy parents and grandparents, others don't. So the inequality is at least going to be repeated within these generations, if not increase.
 

Faceless Man

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I know a number of people at the tail end of the boomer generation who didn't get on the property ladder, or who fell off.
They (and I) will almost certainly be renting for the rest of their lives.

So yes, most boomers did ok with housing, not all.
It's almost like these generational divides are purely arbitrary, and people are better grouped together by economic class. Grouping people together on the basis of hard date differences denies that there is little difference between the experiences of a person born in, say, 1979 and one born in 1980, or even 1981.
 

Gary Patterson

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I'm straight up mix Gen X myself.
And more through luck than anything, housing is a solved problem. Yes there is a mortgage, but it's NOW after 15 years of re payments (and a 4 year fixed 2.25% rate from COVID) ...reasonable sized.

But having watched for the past decade house pricing go just pure nuts, something has to be done for those who didn't get in earlier.
Increasing the first home buys bonus, just makes housing more expensive.
Anything you do that allows people to borrow more money to buy a house, just means people will borrow more money.
Two ways to make housing more affordable - make the cost lower or make availability higher. The former is where these first home bonuses come from, but as you say, that amount just gets tacked on to the price of a new home and buyers lose again.

The second is more interesting. You can build more, yes (and that's great for the economy) but you can also tackle the ownership of rental properties to make it harder or more expensive. That will lead to people selling their rental properties, pushing the average price down. That's a tough one to sell politically, but I feel it's the right way to go.
 

NavyGothic

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There's really two quite separate issues which go into the housing affordability crisis.

1. Demand has massively outpaced supply for decades. Whether its labour and materials costs, bureaucracy and red tape, corruption and self-interest in both government and construction, NIMBYism and overly restrictive zoning, lack of infrastructure to support dense housing; it all contributes to sky high development costs and supply of housing far below what the market could bear.

2. Our tax, banking and benefits systems disproportionately favour property ownership. Negative gearing gets a lot of attention, but even more severe are things like the home being exempt from capital gains and estate taxes, numerous schemes like the first homebuyers grants, exemption of the home from pension wealth assessments, non-taxation of imputed rent, easy access to liquid wealth via reverse mortgages etc.

And of course they intertwine. If housing was relatively cheap, the discrepancy between owners and renters wouldn't be quite so impactful. Or if ownership didn't have such enormous incentives, developers would build more high density and cheap housing for rental purposes.

It should be perfectly normal to be a lifelong renter and build your wealth by investing in other asset classes (bonds, stocks, hedges, entrepreneurship, etc). But in Australia that's financial suicide; if you can afford to buy, 99% of the time the answer is YES even if you'd probably be happier renting.
 
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rainynight65

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It should be perfectly normal to be a lifelong renter and build your wealth by investing in other asset classes (bonds, stocks, entrepreneurship, etc). But in Australia that's financial suicide; if you can afford to buy, 99% of the time the answer is YES even if you'd probably be happier renting.
It doesn't help that renting is almost intentionally degrading in Australia. When renting back in Germany, I never had to ask permission ton have a regular pet, I was allowed to put nails into the wall, and I sure as shit didn't have a real estate agent accessing my home for an 'inspection' every three months, being able to go in whether I was home or not. Such inspections, by the way, are illegal in Germany, where renting is more normal than here.

I'm renting at the moment due to my separation and waiting for the jointly owned house to be sold, but in all honesty I can't wait to be able to buy again. It doesn't even need to be anything ostentatious, just something that's mine and where I don't run afoul of my contract if I bluetack something to the wall will be just fine.
 

Bardon

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It's almost like these generational divides are purely arbitrary, and people are better grouped together by economic class. Grouping people together on the basis of hard date differences denies that there is little difference between the experiences of a person born in, say, 1979 and one born in 1980, or even 1981.
100% - it's madness trying to group people solely by the year they were born in.

Of course, every person born within an arbitrary timeframe has identical worldviews and attitudes no matter what their racial, social, geographical, political or other influences.
The very concept of generations as an indicator of worldview/attitude/actions is ludicrous.
Let's look at just the first year of the "Boomers", 1946.

Donald Trump, Freddie Mercury, Dolly Parton, Tim Curry, John Waters, Danny Glover, Al Green, Cheech Marin and Stephen Biko were all born in 1946.

So Donald Trump and Stephen Biko, one of the most influential anti-apartheid activists, were born not only in the same "generation" but the same year and therefore have the same attitude, politics, worldview, economic & racial influences. Right?

It's utterly insane.

Edit to remove what might have seemed a "cutesy" name.
 

SnoopCatt

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100% - it's madness trying to group people solely by the year they were born in.
Of course it is. But on the other hand there are definitely common cultural and societal environments that will have shaped peoples' worldviews, so terms like Baby Boomers or Generation X aren't useless either - in the appropriate context.

But on the topic of housing, there is unquestionably a divide opening up between the haves (or the parents have) and the have nots. Australia has long considered itself a classless society (at least compared to Britain), but unless we make changes soon, we risk creating a (wealthy) property-owning class and a (poorer) renting class.
 

zenparadox

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Of course it is. But on the other hand there are definitely common cultural and societal environments that will have shaped peoples' worldviews, so terms like Baby Boomers or Generation X aren't useless either - in the appropriate context.

But on the topic of housing, there is unquestionably a divide opening up between the haves (or the parents have) and the have nots. Australia has long considered itself a classless society (at least compared to Britain), but unless we make changes soon, we risk creating a (wealthy) property-owning class and a (poorer) renting class.
We have already created exactly that. Sadly.
 

NavyGothic

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But on the topic of housing, there is unquestionably a divide opening up between the haves (or the parents have) and the have nots. Australia has long considered itself a classless society (at least compared to Britain), but unless we make changes soon, we risk creating a (wealthy) property-owning class and a (poorer) renting class.
For a pretty staggering comparison, consider income poverty (defined as household disposable income less than 50% of national median) amongst retirees. If you retire as a homeowner with no mortgage, it's about 11%. For private renters, it's about 67%. About two-thirds of retiree renters are living in effective poverty.

It shouldn't be a poverty trap to rent, but that's the result of decades of policy benefiting property owners. And now that we have ~67% of the population who are homeowners; that's a supermajority of the population who will fight tooth & nail to keep property values high.
 

Camacan

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Of course it is. But on the other hand there are definitely common cultural and societal environments that will have shaped peoples' worldviews, so terms like Baby Boomers or Generation X aren't useless either - in the appropriate context.

But on the topic of housing, there is unquestionably a divide opening up between the haves (or the parents have) and the have nots. Australia has long considered itself a classless society (at least compared to Britain), but unless we make changes soon, we risk creating a (wealthy) property-owning class and a (poorer) renting class.

The idea that we're classless is a core part of our identity. But I haven't lived my life in a classless country. I grew up being told there were no classes while constantly bumping in to people who damn well knew which class they were in and would instantly judge which class I was in and react accordingly, all while carrying on a polite pretense. Working class people tended to be much less committed to the facade.

(You are right in asserting wealth inequality is accelerating, this is just a comment on our historical self-image of classlessness.)