Australian politics - Perpetual Thread.

SnoopCatt

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There is speculation that Sussan Ley's leadership might be safe for now, because the two potential challengers (Hastie and Taylor) can't resolve who should replace her. Taylor's supporters are claiming that he has "seniority", which is richly ironic coming from the party that loudly claims to be merit based whenever the question of gender quotas is raised.
 
I think Morrison made a terrible error when he cancelled the sub deal with France, but at the time, it probably seemed like a reasonable deal. I don't think anyone would have anticipated the US abandoning its allies.

Unlike Europe/NATO, I don't think we can do without US security guarantees for another decade or so. Whether those treaties would be honoured is a question that is probably keeping many bureaucrats awake at night.
If Trump is in power when called, you'd only have to backup a truck load of gold to that ugly monstrosity he calls a home.
 

Faceless Man

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,687
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I read up on Colin Boyce, and... the less said about him the better.
I'd be leery of a Queenslander running any party at the moment. (And I have a lot of respect for Kevin Rudd, although he also lost a lot by rolling Julia before the 2013 election.) But it does answer the question of how the Queensland LNP feels about the coalition split at the moment. I think there are probably a few who wish they'd never merged, but at the same time there are probably more that realise that it's the only way they could maintain relevance.
 

rainynight65

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,401
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The problem is not what Tony Abbott thinks. The problem is that the media and some other people keep finding whatever rock he is hiding under and keep sticking a mic into his face/asking for his input. Truly, nobody even in the Liberal Party itself should give half a shit about what the serial failure Tony Abbott thinks.
 

ScruffyNerf

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,667
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Should it be nationalised, or sold to a different owner?
IMO, it was the Liberal's biggest blunder, selling that off.

There is absolutely no good answer to this problem now though. Almost anything will materially annoy Beijing, well over and above the usual level of annoyance they have with us.

Given that China is heavily "investing" in regional ports and infrastructure around the Pacific to strengthen it's fleet and their positioning, they're a) not going to want to lose a port, anywhere, and b) especially not wanting to lose a port in Australia, of all places.
 

Faceless Man

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,687
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Lets start with the Darwin port then.
Absolutely, the ports should not be run for profit, especially not by a corporation owned by a foreign government. By any foreign government.

For that matter, I'd be concerned if the Australian Government bought a controlling interest in a port in China. Shouldn't really be in that business, regardless of the strategic advantages.
 

Klockwerk

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3,760
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Renewable energy and batteries looks to be putting downward pressure on electricity prices in eastern Australia. Looks like NSW and Victoria are solidly on the path to a great future - Prices going down due to renewables

enewables and batteries powered more than 50 per cent of the grid in the December quarter for the first time in history, crunching coal to its lowest-ever seasonal share of the mix, and gas to its lowest since 2000.
Wholesale power prices – what retailers pay generators for electricity before selling it to customers – tumbled to $50 megawatt-hour, a 44 per cent decline from the same time a year earlier
Forward prices in NSW had fallen about 20 per cent to $98 a megawatt-hour

Queensland being Queensland is taking the other path:

Wind farm: No
 

Bardon

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,278
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Renewable energy and batteries looks to be putting downward pressure on electricity prices in eastern Australia. Looks like NSW and Victoria are solidly on the path to a great future - Prices going down due to renewables





Queensland being Queensland is taking the other path:

Wind farm: No
As a non-insane Queenslander, I hate what the LNP are doing to ruin our state.
 

SnoopCatt

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The reported 'community concerns' about impact to native wildlife seem idiotic - a pine plantation is about as far from natural habitat as you can be, short of paving the area in concrete.

On a related note, I rode my bike around Portland the other week, and it was interesting to see the turbines there. A lot were stationary during the morning despite the strong wind, but spinning later in the day, presumably as demand increased.
 

Camacan

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,286
Subscriptor
The reported 'community concerns' about impact to native wildlife seem idiotic - a pine plantation is about as far from natural habitat as you can be, short of paving the area in concrete.

On a related note, I rode my bike around Portland the other week, and it was interesting to see the turbines there. A lot were stationary during the morning despite the strong wind, but spinning later in the day, presumably as demand increased.
When I read Portland, I immediately thought of
1769669859890.png
...rather than Victoria. Looking up Portland up, I was depressed to read that a foreign company, Vestas, set up a factory to manufacture wind turbine blades. Opened in 2005, closed in 2007. We are still ordering masses of turbines from them. Seems too typical an Australian story: insufficient domestic investment means no Australia company in the area and foreign companies are ruthlessly fickle and unconcerned with the countries they operate in.
 

ScruffyNerf

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8,667
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Looks like the SA State election in March will be the tinderbox trial for One Nation. ON are fielding a candidate in every seat, this will be the test of the polling data showing a surge in ON support.

Our iteration of the Liberal party is useless, and has been so for a long time. Whilst polling predicts a comfortable Labor win to retain government, a lot of people are wondering if Liberals might be essentially wiped out, with a potential One Nation opposition.

Considering the number of previously 'die hard' liberals that I know, who have gone silent on their political views in the last 6 months, I do wonder if we're about to see something unprecedented. It's anecdotal, I know, but it does give me pause.

Edit: Whilst looking through the candidate list, I suspect that about a 3rd of them wouldn't pass a police check.

Edit 2: Somewhat laughably, the SA lead for One Nation's an Argentine born immigrant to Australia. Leading the local wing of the anti immigration party.
 
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zenparadox

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,564
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And in the ongoing saga of "Who the fuck cares what he thinks", Tony Abbot has weighed in on what the Libs should do.

Surprising nobody, the man who self-appointed himself as Minister for Women thinks they should sack Ley.

Okay, I'll agree she's not a good leader but really, Abbot?
If he said anything even remotely relevant and non total-fuckwit-angle, I'd be surprised and shocked.
 

Camacan

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,286
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If he said anything even remotely relevant and non total-fuckwit-angle, I'd be surprised and shocked.
Australia is the weirdest. We have some of the best people on earth, people of wit, insight, grace, empathy, deep insight and resource. But we elected Tony Abbot.
 

zenparadox

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,564
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Australia is the weirdest. We have some of the best people on earth, people of wit, insight, grace, empathy, deep insight and resource. But we elected Tony Abbot.
Barnaby Joyce has been a non stop useless fuckwit over decades, and the folk of his electorate have yet to flush him. Theres some very low information voters out there...
 

Bardon

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,278
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Barnaby Joyce has been a non stop useless fuckwit over decades, and the folk of his electorate have yet to flush him. Theres some very low information voters out there...
Just like the One Nation voters who have never looked at Hanson's voting record. She's nothing but a Liberal shill - she always votes in tandem with them, usually at the cost of anyone who's not a rich businessman.
 

ScruffyNerf

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,667
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Yeah she is a special special kind of evil that one.
Speaking of which, Cory Bernardi (former Liberal Senator, former party head Australian Conservative Party) will lead One Nation's Legislative Council ticket in the upcoming state election.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-02/cory-bernardi-to-lead-one-nation-sa-state-election/106297448

And there's strong rumours circulating that current Liberal Senator Alex Antic, of the far, far "Christian" Right (and largely responsible for the SA Liberal's hard right turn) is also in talks of defecting to ON.

Which, tbh, is a pure gift to the SA Liberals.

One thought crosses my mind though... Pauline has been pretty much on her own for a long time, and is used to doing things her way. With some of these people that she's attracting to ON, like Joyce... there's going to be a lot of very loud egos in that party room. Wonder how long before the snake pit will start eating itself.


Edit: Speculation - wonder if Matt Canavan is also in Pauline's sights as a possible.
 

rainynight65

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2,401
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Speaking of which, Cory Bernardi (former Liberal Senator, former party head Australian Conservative Party) will lead One Nation's Legislative Council ticket in the upcoming state election.
If there's something this country needed even less than Barnaby hitching his horse to Pauline's wagon, it is a political comeback under One Nation by Cory fucking Bernardi.

One thought crosses my mind though... Pauline has been pretty much on her own for a long time, and is used to doing things her way. With some of these people that she's attracting to ON, like Joyce... there's going to be a lot of very loud egos in that party room. Wonder how long before the snake pit will start eating itself.
I don't think it will take overly long. Especially with Pauline Hanson having herself written into the party's constitution as lifelong leader who gets to determine her successor. That's not going to play well with the likes of Barnaby and Cory for long. They're not used to following without a chance at leadership for themselves.
 

Faceless Man

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,687
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Speaking of which, Cory Bernardi (former Liberal Senator, former party head Australian Conservative Party) will lead One Nation's Legislative Council ticket in the upcoming state election.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-02/cory-bernardi-to-lead-one-nation-sa-state-election/106297448

And there's strong rumours circulating that current Liberal Senator Alex Antic, of the far, far "Christian" Right (and largely responsible for the SA Liberal's hard right turn) is also in talks of defecting to ON.

Which, tbh, is a pure gift to the SA Liberals.

One thought crosses my mind though... Pauline has been pretty much on her own for a long time, and is used to doing things her way. With some of these people that she's attracting to ON, like Joyce... there's going to be a lot of very loud egos in that party room. Wonder how long before the snake pit will start eating itself.


Edit: Speculation - wonder if Matt Canavan is also in Pauline's sights as a possible.
I thought Cory Bernardi had, quite rightly, ceased to be of any relevance.

I suppose he still isn't particularly relevant, but I'd hoped we wouldn't hear from him again.
 

rainynight65

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,401
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Any time I see these have-beens stage a political comeback, my first thought is that they're trying to get their snouts back in the trough because somehow life isn't so cozy without the taxpayer-funded salary.

I'm probably doing them injustice - they likely also have some grievances they feel the need to launder at taxpayer's expense.
 

ScruffyNerf

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,667
Subscriptor
Any time I see these have-beens stage a political comeback, my first thought is that they're trying to get their snouts back in the trough because somehow life isn't so cozy without the taxpayer-funded salary.

I'm probably doing them injustice - they likely also have some grievances they feel the need to launder at taxpayer's expense.
You forget the sheer audacity and narcissism of these people
 
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Gary Patterson

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,755
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An Italian immigrant who, fifty years ago, would have been in the other side of that racism. We’ve got a rich history of racism against each group of immigrants.

Italians can’t be real Australians!
Greeks can’t be real Australians!
Vietnamese can’t be real Australians!
And so on.

Each group is visibly different from the society that they entered, but they all became real Australians and we (as a society) don’t say stupid stuff like that now. We celebrate what thy bring to our nation, our diversity is our strength. Any immigrant bringing that nonsense back needs to remember they’re on the wrong side of the line they’re drawing.
 

Camacan

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,286
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The Guardian has a sobering article about the rise of One Nation.

“The rise in support for One Nation is not trivial,” Lewis said.

“It reflects shifts occurring elsewhere in the UK , Europe and of course in the US where populist movements are repudiating the mainstream parties’ failures to harness global capitalism.”

It's a mild way to put it, a failure to harness, for the many economic and societal problems undercontrolled capitalism is causing. But the key point is that electorates around the world stressed this way aren't responding to the causes but with racial and cultural grievance instead. Fighting racism is right, obviously, but to my mind the major parties can't beat One Nation by only fighting racism without addressing the fuel.

So as long as the major parties leave the hard stuff in the too hard basket, they will continue to decline, and populism will thrive.

The latest Guardian Essential poll put One Nation’s primary vote at 22%, triple what it achieved at the 2025 election and just three points below the Coalition.

Peter Lewis, a director of Essential Media, said One Nation’s support should be viewed as an expression of dissatisfaction with the major parties – particularly the Liberals and Nationals – rather than a genuine voting intention, given the next federal election isn’t due until 2028.
I think this underplays the threat. Expressions of dissatisfaction have a way of hardening into actions when left unaddressed for too long.
 
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Klockwerk

Ars Praefectus
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New-New-Coalition possible under proposed deal

As of right now, Sussan Ley has given the Nationals a list of non-negotiable conditions under which the Coalition could reform, with a deadline of this weekend (subject to change due to weather, sunspot activity, and how badly the Nationals want back in the Coalition whichever day get together to talk about this).
  • Nationals have to pinky swear that they'll abide by Shadow Cabinet for realsies this time
  • The three shadow ministers who broke the rules have a six month timeout from the opposition front bench, for realsies too.
I've given up trying to work out what the Libs and Nats will do because I just can't grasp the 5 dimensional chess that they're playing.
 
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Bardon

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,278
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New-New-Coalition possible under proposed deal

As of right now, Sussan Ley has given the Nationals a list of non-negotiable conditions under which the Coalition could reform, with a deadline of this weekend (subject to change due to weather, sunspot activity, and how badly the Nationals want back in the Coalition whichever day get together to talk about this).
  • Nationals have to pinky swear that they'll abide by Shadow Cabinet for realsies this time
  • The three shadow ministers who broke the rules have a six month timeout from the opposition front bench, for realsies too.
I've given up trying to work out what the Libs and Nats will do because I just can't grasp the 5 dimensional chess that they're playing.
They're certainly making things easier for Labor, that's for sure!
 

NavyGothic

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,312
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If I was Liberal leadership, path forward would be pretty clear.

Give up on the formal coalition agreement for the next election. Drop the bullshit, focus on actual liberal centre-right policies, and run moderate candidates to win back Teal and Labor seats. You won't win government in 2028, but you need to rebuild the party for 2031 and onward. Let the Nationals fight off One Nation, they'll implode well before 2031 anyway. Probably before 2028. Maybe before March.

Of course, easier said than done. Especially when you're herding feral cats.
 
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