Australian politics - Perpetual Thread.

Camacan

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Of course, always possible that Labor goes through their own spectacular implosion in the next few years, so never say never.
Speaking of self-harm, Labor has just created a weapon set to criminalize opposition to genocide. The Greens tried to sound the alarm over the new hate speech laws. The Greens justice spokesperson, David Shoebridge said:
“People don’t realise that the Coalition cut a deal with Labor yesterday that didn’t narrow the scope of this legislation to groups that are promoting violence or breaching the law,” he said.

“The deal the Coalition cut with Labor in the last 24 hours massively expanded it.

“It roped in seven different state laws and said conduct that breaches any of those seven state laws, which includes tests like ‘ridicule’ and ‘contempt’, that can lead to the banning of organisations, the criminalisation of being an informal member of those organisations, and people going to jail for five, 10 or 15 years.”
If the relevant pressure groups get organizations protesting ethnic cleansing and genocide in Israel and/or individuals jailed for the same, I'm thinking Labor is toast. As for "social cohesion", how damaging would it be?

Edit to add: And the moron-o-circus is stealing all the oxygen. This isn't being discussed. And if the Nats had a problem with the hate speech bill (and I don't know what their issue was) surely the time to bust up over it was before it was passed. This way it's all cost, no benefit.
 
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Cognac

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What a joke. Both parties are going to lose more votes at the next federal election. And I don't see the fuckery finishing anytime soon.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-22/coalition-splits-for-second-time-since-election/106255898

Mr Littleproud said he sent Ms Ley the resignation letters of his three senators — Bridget McKenzie, Susan McDonald and Ross Cadell — on Wednesday morning, but issued a warning that the whole party would quit if the resignations were accepted.

Ms Ley accepted the resignations on Wednesday afternoon, saying in a statement that cabinet solidarity was "not optional" and that the Nationals' conduct "required action".

In a further statement on Wednesday night, she said she had urged Mr Littleproud "not to walk away from the Coalition" and that it was unnecessary for the other five Nationals frontbenchers to resign.

"I cannot stand by and have three courageous senators who put their jobs on the line for no reason that has any veracity whatsoever," Mr Littleproud said.

"There was an out yesterday [for Ms Ley] to not accept these three resignations. She was aware of the consequences if she did … and she still made that decision."

I believe this is called the "Find Out" phase? He's playing a game of chicken, not realising that the end result is also just not good for anyone.
 

Bardon

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Give it time. It’s still the honeymoon period, they’re still getting used to each other.
Yeah, wait for the first time they both claim to be the voice of the party - Hanson will claim "I'm the founder" and Joyce will claim "I'm the senior parliamentarian" and the fur will fly.
 
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rainynight65

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If the relevant pressure groups get organizations protesting ethnic cleansing and genocide in Israel and/or individuals jailed for the same, I'm thinking Labor is toast. As for "social cohesion", how damaging would it be?
I'd like to think that there will be some organisation that's willing to test these laws in court, all the way to the High Court if needed. It wouldn't be the first time that an overambitious legislation had its wings clipped by a constitutional court. This is not to downplay the gravity of the laws as they were passed, they definitely should not have.

Edit to add: And the moron-o-circus is stealing all the oxygen. This isn't being discussed. And if the Nats had a problem with the hate speech bill (and I don't know what their issue was) surely the time to bust up over it was before it was passed. This way it's all cost, no benefit.
This is the Coalition's making. They've been riding the government hard, yelling "Do something! Do something!" since right after Bondi, and then the government did something and all of a sudden it was "this is too fast, we need more time".

Reading between the lines it was pretty clear what problems the Libs and Nats had with the proposed laws. They wanted more focus on brown people and 'radical Islamism', less focus on other variants of hate speech, and definitely no changes to gun laws. The fact that the Coalition couldn't get consensus among themselves on what they wanted is a problem of their own making. I mean, there are Libs who are grandstanding and claiming the laws as they were passed as their own accomplishment, and then there are Nats who after the fact claim that they were against the laws from the get-go...

Yeah, wait for the first time they both claim to be the voice of the party - Hanson will claim "I'm the founder" and Joyce will claim "I'm the senior parliamentarian" and the fur will fly.
That'll be interesting, mainly because Barnyard doesn't have a lot of fur left...
 

Faceless Man

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Yeah, wait for the first time they both claim to be the voice of the party - Hanson will claim "I'm the founder" and Joyce will claim "I'm the senior parliamentarian" and the fur will fly.
But he isn't. She was elected to parliament a long time before he was. I mean, he hasn't had any extended absences, or indeed criminal sentences, from the parliament, but she was first elected 10 years or so before he was.
 

rainynight65

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But he isn't. She was elected to parliament a long time before he was. I mean, he hasn't had any extended absences, or indeed criminal sentences, from the parliament, but she was first elected 10 years or so before he was.
Probably a matter of how you define seniority. Hanson was first elected to parliament in 1996 but lost again in 1998. She was then re-elected to the Senate in 2016. That's a total of 13 years as a parliamentarian.

Joyce has served continuously in House and Senate since 2004, with only a brief pause during the 2017-18 constitutional crisis. That's a near 22 year run.

If I do a job for three years, then do something else for eighteen years, then return to the previous job, am I really more senior than someone who started after me but by then has been doing the job continuously for twelve years? I think not.
 
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NavyGothic

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On a completely different and more positive note; I had a doctor's appointment yesterday, and for the first time in years my visit was bulk-billed!

So huzzah, always nice when government gets something unequivocally right. I'm comfortable enough that a $40 gap isn't a huge burden, but there are plenty of people out there who aren't as fortunate. More and earlier GP visits means far better outcomes.
 

Camacan

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On a completely different and more positive note; I had a doctor's appointment yesterday, and for the first time in years my visit was bulk-billed!

So huzzah, always nice when government gets something unequivocally right. I'm comfortable enough that a $40 gap isn't a huge burden, but there are plenty of people out there who aren't as fortunate. More and earlier GP visits means far better outcomes.
Damn straight. Prevention campaigns that get people to avoid bad health drivers are cheaper than treating the results of letting it rip. Like you say, more and earlier GP visits catch things early. In terms of hospital, earlier operations avoid progression and complications (stitch in time saves nine).
 

SpocksBeer

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Well at least that way they can get back to being the party they want to be. Won't make them more electable, but the clubhouse will feel cosier.

I must say, I was disappointed with the fallout yesterday. I wanted a lib on nat cat fight, with Darth Joyce and Emperor Hanson cackling maniacally in the background.

Oh well, maybe next breakup.
 

rainynight65

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It is on. It is absolutely on.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...y-challengers-sussan-ley-leadership/106265762

Liberal leadership aspirants Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor are being urged to "sort out" which of them will challenge Sussan Ley for the party's top job before a spill is called.

There is growing consensus among Liberals that Ms Ley's position is untenable, however multiple sources have told the ABC that the right faction must first settle on either Mr Hastie or Mr Taylor as their challenger.

I wonder if Ley will survive the week.
 

rainynight65

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edit: I can't see Littleproud (Nationals leader) surviving much longer either.

Oh, I wouldn't be so hasty.

I'm not a gambling person at all, but right now I'd be willing to bet a not insignificant amount of money on events playing out roughly like this:

  • Ley gets rolled, Hastie takes over (Taylor is too tainted and they need whatever passes for fresh blood in the Liberals to lead them)
  • Hastie's first act is to reach out to the Nats to re-commit to the Coalition
  • The Nats put up some pretend-hesitation and get one or two token concessions as a result
  • Littleproud and Hastie get credit for saving the Coalition, Littleproud's leadership is strengthened
  • Big happy family

And if it plays out like this, we'll know it was never about the hate speech laws, and it wasn't just the Nats throwing their toys out of the pram - they simply wanted to get rid of a 'moderate' woman as leader and replace her with a hard-right man, and engineered a plausible pretext to do so.
 

Camacan

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Oh, I wouldn't be so hasty.

I'm not a gambling person at all, but right now I'd be willing to bet a not insignificant amount of money on events playing out roughly like this:

  • Ley gets rolled, Hastie takes over (Taylor is too tainted and they need whatever passes for fresh blood in the Liberals to lead them)
  • Hastie's first act is to reach out to the Nats to re-commit to the Coalition
  • The Nats put up some pretend-hesitation and get one or two token concessions as a result
  • Littleproud and Hastie get credit for saving the Coalition, Littleproud's leadership is strengthened
  • Big happy family

And if it plays out like this, we'll know it was never about the hate speech laws, and it wasn't just the Nats throwing their toys out of the pram - they simply wanted to get rid of a 'moderate' woman as leader and replace her with a hard-right man, and engineered a plausible pretext to do so.
I wouldn't take that bet, I think you are right on the money.

The scheme as outlined looks like effective factional political theatre to me. But destructive to the fortunes of the coalition overall. Australia women aren't stupid, they understand the coalition doesn't afford them proper representation. And it's reflected in the vote:
A majority of women preferred Labor in all age segments (18-34, 35-54 and 55+) and the report noted: “Liberal defectors in ‘Teal seats’ were highly likely to agree with the statement that ‘the treatment or attitude toward women within the Liberal Party had a strong influence on my vote’.”
Screwing Ley over, as I believe was Littleproud and Hastie's aim from the get-go, just adds lighter fuel to that fire, right? First. Female. Party. Leader. That only happens once. And she went all out to cater to the far right from day one, making events only clearer.
 

Faceless Man

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If the Liberal Party wanted a female leader, they could have elected Julie Bishop. But no, they went with Miorrison instead. I'm not a fan of Julie Bishop, but she at least knew what she was doing.

Basically, of the post-Howard Liberal Party, only she and Malcolm Turnbull seemed to have any intelligence at all, and I think it was a mistake by them to ignore her just because she's a woman, but from what I've heard that's exactly why she was never in the running.
 

Bardon

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Oh, I wouldn't be so hasty.

I'm not a gambling person at all, but right now I'd be willing to bet a not insignificant amount of money on events playing out roughly like this:

  • Ley gets rolled, Hastie takes over (Taylor is too tainted and they need whatever passes for fresh blood in the Liberals to lead them)
  • Hastie's first act is to reach out to the Nats to re-commit to the Coalition
  • The Nats put up some pretend-hesitation and get one or two token concessions as a result
  • Littleproud and Hastie get credit for saving the Coalition, Littleproud's leadership is strengthened
  • Big happy family

And if it plays out like this, we'll know it was never about the hate speech laws, and it wasn't just the Nats throwing their toys out of the pram - they simply wanted to get rid of a 'moderate' woman as leader and replace her with a hard-right man, and engineered a plausible pretext to do so.
I do love how you put 'moderate' in quotation marks in describing Ley - I understand it completely, she's moderate compared to Hastie or Taylor but that's an extremely low bar to get over.

Seems they've learned nothing from Dutton's legendary loss.
 

ScruffyNerf

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Seems they've learned nothing from Dutton's legendary loss.
They've probably convinced themselves that it was something about Dutton's personality, and not the policies, not realising that it was both.

Or, there's enough quiet funding for them to give them convenient amnesia.
 

rainynight65

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I do love how you put 'moderate' in quotation marks in describing Ley - I understand it completely, she's moderate compared to Hastie or Taylor but that's an extremely low bar to get over.
A moderate right-winger is still a right-winger, and in the context of the Liberals 'moderate' means effectively nothing when the fringe of the party is basically fascism-adjacent.
 

Gary Patterson

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They've probably convinced themselves that it was something about Dutton's personality, and not the policies, not realising that it was both.

Or, there's enough quiet funding for them to give them convenient amnesia.
You’ve also got a certain quota of pundits who, bereft of their thinking-brain dogs, keep pushing the coalition to move further to the right. Dutton lost, they “think,” because he was too close to the left.

I fully support these people and hope the coalition takes their words to heart. I would love to see a good, long stretch of Labor federal govts now.
 

NavyGothic

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They've probably convinced themselves that it was something about Dutton's personality, and not the policies, not realising that it was both.
I really do think that's it. News Ltd has effectively been a soft propaganda wing of the LNP for nearly 20 years now; the last time they endorsed Labor was Kevin 07. Now we're seeing the result of a generation of politicians who have been so coddled by their media bubble that they've started to genuinely believe their own bullshit.

I thought the Liberals would be somewhat pragmatic winning back centrist voters in suburban and urban seats... but maybe they are just too far gone.
 

Bardon

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Well, this is proof that the knives are out in full force for Ley.

Moderate Liberals are "rock solid" behind Ley

There is one possibility listed in the article that might give her a bit of a reprieve: Giving her the boot would be essentially saying that Littleproud (who has little to be proud of) was essentially dictating to the Liberals. They don't like being told what to do by the junior (in their view at least) partner .
 

Rudi

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but who could have anticipated that tougher hate-speech laws would trigger a full-scale civil war in the Coalition?

The coalition has a track record of voting against tougher hate speech laws. Remember 18C and Brandis, defending peoples right to be bigots. They wanted words like Insult and offend removed from the legislation.
 

Klockwerk

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Subject to change whenever Angus Taylor makes it back, it looks like Sussan Ley is cementing her control over the Liberal party and over the official opposition by looking to name replacements for the Nationals that have left:

Sussan Ley to announce Liberal-only frontbench as allies increasingly confident she won’t face spill

Basically calling the Nationals bluff and telling them good riddance.

This looks to be very beneficial for the Liberals as they can now ditch any of the National's policies they don't like, as well as start leaning more centrist for the next election. This could also hurt the Nationals as they'll no longer have veto over any Coalition policies, are no longer part of the opposition (as defined by "second largest party in parliament"), and lose all the shadow ministries that they had.

I think there's also a good chance that Ley will see off any challenge from Hastie/Taylor, as I don't think whoever ends up on top will have the numbers in the Liberal party.

All of that said, I'm confident that the Liberal party can find a way to do something stupid that makes all of this invalid quite quickly.
 

SnoopCatt

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Canadian PM Mark Carney's recent speech at Davos was extraordinary. Do you think it is the right time for Albanese to say something similar in public? Malcolm Turnbull certainly does. I'm not so sure. Australia and Canada are similar in many ways, but I doubt Trump thinks nearly as much about Australia as he does about Canada. Is Albanese doing the right thing by playing things low key? Don't poke the bear, and all that?
 

rainynight65

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AdrianS

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Canadian PM Mark Carney's recent speech at Davos was extraordinary. Do you think it is the right time for Albanese to say something similar in public? Malcolm Turnbull certainly does. I'm not so sure. Australia and Canada are similar in many ways, but I doubt Trump thinks nearly as much about Australia as he does about Canada. Is Albanese doing the right thing by playing things low key? Don't poke the bear, and all that?
I'm assuming there are lots of discussions about how Trump's sabre-rattling effects the AUKUS subs.

I think the deal should be cancelled and we write-off the money we've already paid, but if the gov't wants to stay in its a vulnerable point.
 

SnoopCatt

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I'm assuming there are lots of discussions about how Trump's sabre-rattling effects the AUKUS subs.

I think the deal should be cancelled and we write-off the money we've already paid, but if the gov't wants to stay in its a vulnerable point.
I think Morrison made a terrible error when he cancelled the sub deal with France, but at the time, it probably seemed like a reasonable deal. I don't think anyone would have anticipated the US abandoning its allies.

Unlike Europe/NATO, I don't think we can do without US security guarantees for another decade or so. Whether those treaties would be honoured is a question that is probably keeping many bureaucrats awake at night.
 

Faceless Man

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/tamworth-national-party-pivot-to-one-nation/106270810

Reading the voxpops in this ABC article is terrifying. In what parallel universe can the Liberal Party be considered anywhere even close to 'left of the middle'? Has the Overton window really shifted that far to the right, or are these people just terminally ignorant, uneducated, and unashamedly proud of being both those things?
I think there are a number of people who believe that "liberal" means left wing, when it's not really true, even in the US.

I mean, the Labor Party is barely left-wing these days. They still support some progressive social policies, but they do still seem to carry around a neo-liberal economic mindset. I'll believe the Labor Party is moving back to the left when they actively pursue the renationalisation of key infrastructure like our telecoms network.