An unlikely set of clues helps reconstruct ancient Chinese disasters

Shang Dynasty oracle bones and modern weather models feature in the same study.

See full article...

 

[cothrun]

Some of those dates make me think of the Late Bronze Age collapse, I wonder if there is a connection to be explored there? Some digging in Wikipedia suggests that climate was a factor but not a full driver of those events in the Mediterranean, I wonder if that was the same sort of pressure the Shang Dynasty faced from El Niño conditions.

Yes, paleotempestology is a perfectly cromulent word.

 

[Coriolanus]

Gives you a good idea why the legendary founder of the mythical Xia dynasty was Yu the Engineer, who was credited with massive engineering projects for flood control.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yu_the_Great

The Xia dynasty was supposed to be the predecessor of the Shang.

 

[SolarMane]

Shang Dynasty rulers took their most pressing questions to oracles, who would throw oxen shoulder blades (scapulae) or the bony undersides of turtle shells (plastrons) onto a fire, then interpret the pattern of cracks in the burned bone.

This is technically incorrect. The Shang Dynasty was a theocracy. Its kings were the oracles. They inscribed questions onto bones, burned them, and interpreted the resulting cracks.

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

Some of those dates make me think of the Late Bronze Age collapse, I wonder if there is a connection to be explored there? Some digging in Wikipedia suggests that climate was a factor but not a full driver of those events in the Mediterranean, I wonder if that was the same sort of pressure the Shang Dynasty faced from El Niño conditions.

Yes, paleotempestology is a perfectly cromulent word.

Yeah, those dates do roughly correlate. I recently read 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed and found it pretty interesting, though in the end the thesis that there were multiple contributing factors is less emotionally satisfying than a single smoking gun theory. But the world tends to be a complex place and if I want emotional satisfaction I should read fiction.

ETA: I'm not at all qualified to speculate on weather patterns, but I wonder if anyone has modeled what multi-year effects from the ca. 3600 year-ago eruption of Thera might have been in the western Pacific.

 

[nartreb]

the mountains force eastbound air upward,

Editing mistake here: this sentence is talking about air that is westbound from the ocean.

 

[chantries]

Yeah, those dates do roughly correlate. I recently read 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed and found it pretty interesting, though in the end the thesis that there were multiple contributing factors is less emotionally satisfying than a single smoking gun theory. But the world tends to be a complex place and if I want emotional satisfaction I should read fiction.

ETA: I'm not at all qualified to speculate on weather patterns, but I wonder if anyone has modeled what multi-year effects from the ca. 3600 year-ago eruption of Thera might have been in the western Pacific.

Yes, indeed. A quick search turns up "Worldwide environmental impacts from the eruption of Thera" in Environmental Geology.

 

[A_Very_Tired_Geek]

This is technically incorrect. The Shang Dynasty was a theocracy. Its kings were the oracles. They inscribed questions onto bones, burned them, and interpreted the resulting cracks.

Yes and no. The shaman-chieftains were priests for the most part, but they weren't the only oracles available. Extended families and smaller villages often had a wise person who handled the local wisdom, story lore, and magic/healing at a remove from clan heads and chieftains in the bigger settlements. Those wise people would have been the first (and probably only person) the average subsistence farmers would have consulted for prophetic predictions in love, farming, and the mundane minutiae of life.

The archeological record can't necessarily distinguish between a chieftain doing the oracular ceremony themselves, or merely mimicking the prediction a court magician provided in private in the chieftain's name. That's a matter of interpretation. Interpretation is opinion, not fact. Ultimately it was the chieftain's ass on the line if he or she got it wrong because they had to be seen actually doing the ceremony by witnesses as the high priest of their clan or settlement regardless if the outcome was preordained. The optics had to be observed, or the chieftain would likely have met a violent end.

 

[SomewhereAroundBarstow]

Yes, indeed. A quick search turns up "Worldwide environmental impacts from the eruption of Thera" in Environmental Geology.

Thank you for Googling that for me, but I don't have access to the full paper and the abstract doesn't specifically mention anything about weather in the western Pacific. It does mention crop failures in China but it's safe to assume those would have come with cooling and reduced sunlight from the ash cloud. What I specifically was wondering about was if in a period of recovering from those effects over water, there might be some temperature differentials that could contribute to the weather patterns discussed in the article.

 

[ReadandShare]

Tangential thoughts. Many ancient civilizations passed down great flood stories dating back to awful times 3-4000 years ago. I find it infinitely interesting that:

(1) Mesopotamian peoples - including of course the Hebrews - described awful floods - and derived moral lessons from them. The skies 'opened up' and numerous people drowned - because of their sins. These "lessons" of the floods became a central tenet of their faith!

(2) The Chinese - who were also religious of course - derived lessons of engineering and human persistence instead. Every child in China to this day is taught early on how Yu the Great spent ten long years overseeing the construction of channels and levees to 'tame' the Yellow River. The emperor at the time then designated Yu as his successor. Yu then founded the Xia Dyansty, which lasted about 400 years before losing out to the Shang Dynasty mentioned in this article. Floods still occurred and people continued to drown, of course, but the issue from then on was always viewed as engineering/maintenance/corruption - not people's infidelity toward their god(s).

I find it telling that all through millenia, historical China has never experienced wholesale religious wars - or wars over ideals. Localized temple quarrels over resources, to be sure, but people were never killed en masse over this or that god / goddess.

Fast forward to the late 1800s and early 1900s (meaning all the way to modern times) - there were incidents of Christian missionaries and converts killed. But even that wasn't over any particular points of theology - but that ruling conservative Chinese were fearful of European encroachment and colonialization - with good reason!

Indeed, I believe the infamous Chinese Cultural Revolution under the Communists was actually the first time ever that the Chinese people got whipped up into a frenzy - tears streaming down their faces - smashing properties and killing people - over an ideology! Thanks, USSR, for nothing.

But these last 40 years? I think pragmatism is holding sway in China again. Deng Xiao Ping reversed the extremes of Communism. And today, Xi is the emperor in all but name. Same as it's always been. "Capitalism with Chinese characteristics" - whatever the Emperor dictates - folks will go about their daily lives - as long as 'dear leader' keeps the economy going. Chinese pragmatism to the core.

 

[ReadandShare]

This is technically incorrect. The Shang Dynasty was a theocracy. Its kings were the oracles. They inscribed questions onto bones, burned them, and interpreted the resulting cracks.

Technically, Chinese emperors were 'sons of Heaven'. Religious Rituals were a critical and integral part of government and society. The emperors led seasonal rituals for bountiful harvests, adequate (but not too much) rain, etc... ditto for governors of their provinces... all the way down to family patriarchs of their families. But no, China was not any kind of a theocracy where religious laws took precedent over civic laws. Taoist monks were not imperial officials. And some (many?) emperors were themselves believers of Buddhism.

Imperial exams (for people aspiring to be scholars and officials) tested knowledge of Confucianism - including codes of personal conduct - but nothing about theology - this or that god / goddess.

 

[Veritas super omens]

Some of those dates make me think of the Late Bronze Age collapse, I wonder if there is a connection to be explored there? Some digging in Wikipedia suggests that climate was a factor but not a full driver of those events in the Mediterranean, I wonder if that was the same sort of pressure the Shang Dynasty faced from El Niño conditions.

Yes, paleotempestology is a perfectly cromulent word.

If by some weird temporospatial anomaly I am given a do-over on career path, instead of the one I took, pharmacy, or my most recent redo choice, material science, I will become a Paleotempestologist. Why? Because it sounds awesome.

 

[SolarMane]

Technically, Chinese emperors were 'sons of Heaven'. But no, China was not any kind of a theocracy. Taoist monks were not imperial officials. And some (many?) emperors were themselves believers of Buddhism or Lamaism. Folks prayed to their ancestors similar to how some Christians prayed to saints. The emperors did the same. And when emperors (sons of Heaven) died, they were not considered gods.

We are talking about the earliest Chinese dynasty for which there is incontrovertible archeological evidence. We do not actually know what this dynasty called itself. The name is not written in the oracle bones, which are the only contemporaneous records from this period.

The Shang dynasty (1600 BCE to 1046 BCE) predates both Daoism (Laozi: 6th century BCE) and Buddhism (Siddhartha Gautama: 6th or 5th century BCE). The shamanic folk traditions that would later give rise to Daoism of course exists, but we are still about 5 centuries before Laozi would pen the Classic of the Dao ("Dao De Jing" or "Tao Te Ching"). Confucius, the sage of Ruism, is a contemporary of Laozi, so the Shang would predate him by around 5 centuries. The idea of an Emperor would not arrive for at least another 8 centuries (Qin dynasty: 221 BCE). The imperial exams would not begin until the Han dynasty more than 8 centuries after Shang. The appellation "Son of Heaven" would not have its earliest roots until Wu of Zhou (Ji Fa) established the eponymous dynasty, which would name its predecessor the Shang.

Shang kings had a religious (or spiritual, since organized religion did not exist in this period) role. The early Shang kings received interpretations of the oracle bone in the presence of a diviner. The later Shang kings were themselves diviners. This is inferred from the oracle bones, which record the diviner who interpreted them.

Most surviving oracle bones were used in divination for the Shang kings. Close associates of the kings (nobles and members of the royal household) represent a very small minority of the divinations.

Since later Shang kings were diviners (and affairs of the state appeared to have depended heavily on oracles if the oracle bones were themselves anything to go by), it is not incorrect to call the dynasty a theocracy, even if it did not begin as one.

Eight centuries after the Shang, Imperial China would become one of the most secular regimes in the world. However, that system was not born fully realized as such. It arguably began from the rejection of religious authority (and abuse) under the Shang.

 

[DH321]

"LLM-based program called Pango-weather", are you sure about that ? There is no program named pango-weather, but there is one name pangu-weather but it uses a deep neural network. Also, LLM are not typically used for tabular data, like weather.

 

[silverboy]

I would give this more credence if it weren't LLM-entangled. Sure, maybe it's accurate anyway — it all sounds plausible enough — but unless I know how the LLM's modeling was vetted with something not prone to hallucinations, I'll have to withhold some benefit of the doubt about their work.

 

[ReadandShare]

We are talking about the earliest Chinese dynasty for which there is incontrovertible archeological evidence. We do not actually know what this dynasty called itself. The name is not written in the oracle bones, which are the only contemporaneous records from this period.

The Shang dynasty (1600 BCE to 1046 BCE) predates both Daoism (Laozi: 6th century BCE) and Buddhism (Siddhartha Gautama: 6th or 5th century BCE)...

Shang kings had a religious (or spiritual, since organized religion did not exist in this period) role. The early Shang kings received interpretations of the oracle bone in the presence of a diviner. The later Shang kings were themselves diviners. This is inferred from the oracle bones, which record the diviner who interpreted them.

Most surviving oracle bones were used in divination for the Shang kings. Close associates of the kings (nobles and members of the royal household) represent a very small minority of the divinations.

Since later Shang kings were diviners (and affairs of the state appeared to have depended heavily on oracles if the oracle bones were themselves anything to go by), it is not incorrect to call the dynasty a theocracy, even if it did not begin as one.

Eight centuries after the Shang, Imperial China would become one of the most secular regimes in the world. However, that system was not born fully realized as such. It arguably began from the rejection of religious authority (and abuse) under the Shang.

The bold is mine. I think our disagreement is in the definition of a "theocracy". To me, the term "theocracy" inherently involves the governance of a state by religious authority, which presupposes the existence of a structured religious system.

The immediate kings preceding Yu the Great were not viewed as divine. Yu himself wasn't either - and neither were his descendants who ruled the Xia Dynasty. The Shang rulers were feudal lords of the Xia until one of their descendants rebelled successfully and became the new king. Shang kings were never viewed as divine either. And all this time, laws and governance were not promulgated in the name of any god(s). Not at all.

The "Mandate of Heaven" that evolved afterwards - especially with the Zhou kings that rebelled against the Shang and succeeded them - styled themselves "sons of Heaven", with numerous religious rituals attached, but were also not theocratic. They were more like imperial France's notion of "Divine Rule" - Dieu est mon droit. But France wasn't ever a theocracy either.

 

[SolarMane]

The bold is mine. I think our disagreement is in the definition of a "theocracy". To me, the term "theocracy" inherently involves the governance of a state by religious authority, which presupposes the existence of a structured religious system.

The immediate kings preceding Yu the Great were not viewed as divine. Yu himself wasn't either - and neither were his descendants who ruled the Xia Dynasty. The Shang rulers were feudal lords of the Xia until one of their descendants rebelled successfully and became the new king. Shang kings were never viewed as divine either. And all this time, laws and governance were not promulgated in the name of any god(s). Not at all.

The "Mandate of Heaven" that evolved afterwards - especially with the Zhou kings that rebelled against the Shang and succeeded them - styled themselves "sons of Heaven", with numerous religious rituals attached, but were also not theocratic. They were more like imperial France's notion of "Divine Rule" - Dieu est mon droit. But France wasn't ever a theocracy either.

You argument seems to rely entirely on definition. A theocracy is a form of government in which the divine are believed to give guidance to human intermediaries who manage the government's daily affairs. The Shang venerated the ancestors and spirits. We know the oracle bones were used to direct questions at and receive answers from the ancestors and spirits. We know affairs of the state were heavily influenced by the answer (the cracks, as interpreted by a diviner) in the oracle bones. We know that, by the late Shang dynasty, the kings were themselves diviners. That seems to fit the definition of a theocracy. I do not call the beliefs of the Shang a religion because we do not know enough about the Shang to even guess at the structure (or lack thereof).

I think invoking the Xia is not helpful. First, there is little archeological evidence for the Xia dynasty or Yu the Great. They are to China as Arthur or Camelot is to the UK. There are no sources about the Xia before establishment of the Zhou, which began more than a millenium after the establishment of the Xia. Most of what is traditionally written about the Xia comes to us through Sima Qian, who is writing nearly 2 millenium after Yu the Great. Many of his source are now lost to us. Imagine if the best records about Augustus were compiled in the year 2000 from oral account of written sources that were lost centuries ago. There would be immense problems with accuracy. You can see this in Sima's Records of the Grand Historian, which begins with a recounting of a pre-history ruled by demigods. In the Records, this pre-history is followed by the Xia. I think it is fair to say that there is a bit of mythology when it comes to the Xia.

What we know of the Shang suffers from many of the same problems as the Xia. Once again, Sima Qian, writing almost a millennium after the end of the Shang, is the best source. The only records we have from the Shang themselves are their oracle bones, which are (1) questions directed to ancestors and spirits, (2) responses as interpreted by a diviner, and (3) verification (or refutation) based on subsequent events.

Zhou and their sucessors were not theocracies. My view is that the secularism that arose during Imperial China began as a reaction under the Zhou to the Shang's theocracy.

 

[Veritas super omens]

off topic: Fuck Oracle, and Ellison...

 

[Aurich]

"LLM-based program called Pango-weather", are you sure about that ? There is no program named pango-weather, but there is one name pangu-weather but it uses a deep neural network. Also, LLM are not typically used for tabular data, like weather.

Yeah that seems wrong, flagging.

 

[Big Wang]

the Shang Dynasty rose to prominence, producing the first Chinese writing and also sacrificing thousands of people in ceremonies at the capital, Yinxu

Just a note, the city's name is Yin, not Yinxu. The character for xu is 墟, which means ruin. So Yinxu means "Yin ruins", which is a modern moniker for the archaeological site.

The name of the city, especially in the context of historical descriptions, should just be Yin.

Also, the name Sanxingdui is misspelled (not Shanxingdui).

 

[zogus]

Just a note, the city's name is Yin, not Yinxu. The character for xu is 墟, which means ruin. So Yinxu means "Yin ruins", which is a modern moniker for the archaeological site.

The name of the city, especially in the context of historical descriptions, should just be Yin.

While you’re 95% correct, I’m going to pick even finer nits by pointing out that the term Yinxu goes way, way back. The 2c BCE history book The Records of a Grand Historian already mentions Yinxu as the place where Zhang Han surrendered to Shang Yu after the battle of Julu in 207 BCE. I don’t know how they knew where Yin’s ruin was, but since Shang’s destruction happened “only” 900 years before 3c BCE, it may be the case that some physical structures were still visible at the time.

 

[nartreb]

The bold is mine. I think our disagreement is in the definition of a "theocracy". To me, the term "theocracy" inherently involves the governance of a state by religious authority, which presupposes the existence of a structured religious system.

The immediate kings preceding Yu the Great were not viewed as divine. Yu himself wasn't either - and neither were his descendants who ruled the Xia Dynasty. The Shang rulers were feudal lords of the Xia until one of their descendants rebelled successfully and became the new king. Shang kings were never viewed as divine either. And all this time, laws and governance were not promulgated in the name of any god(s). Not at all.

The "Mandate of Heaven" that evolved afterwards - especially with the Zhou kings that rebelled against the Shang and succeeded them - styled themselves "sons of Heaven", with numerous religious rituals attached, but were also not theocratic. They were more like imperial France's notion of "Divine Rule" - Dieu est mon droit. But France wasn't ever a theocracy either.

I have no opinion on China, but as for France, you've got the quote quite wrong. "Dieu et mon droit" was the battle cry of Richard I (of England) and became the English royal motto under Henry the V (of England). It was never used by the French.

You've also changed the meaning - it's "god AND my right" , not "God IS my right". The motto has nothing at all to do with the idea of "divine right of kings".

The whole "divine right of kings" concept wasn't really worked out until much, much later (17th C). It was an attempt to prop up a system that was already faltering after the renaissance, the reformation, etc etc.

Off topic: for a while France was largely ruled by ministers who were also priests: Richelieu and Mazarin. Theocracy or no?

 

[Torbjörn Larsson OM]

That seems to fit the definition of a theocracy. I do not call the beliefs of the Shang a religion because we do not know enough about the Shang to even guess at the structure (or lack thereof).

I think invoking the Xia is not helpful. First, there is little archeological evidence for the Xia dynasty or Yu the Great. They are to China as Arthur or Camelot is to the UK.

That was carefully defined. But at its most general, religion is organized superstition and that is what we observe at the root of their power structure. (It was of course routine to mix the power basis with that in prescribing "king lists", as well as with the sacrifices that the article describes, making it impossible to separate these phenomena.)

As a note on history and religion, AFAIK the mythical religious founders that you mentioned have the same status as Yu and Arthur. They are also made less likely to have existed as there seem to have been a shared perceived need for inventing the myths.