2026’s historic snow drought is bad news for the West
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Yes, it's been atrocious out here while the NE has been hammered this winter. At least for the Eastern Rockies, there were hardly any significant low systems that came across the southwest and developed enough that then pulled up moisture from the gulf. Plenty of systems that made their way across the northern US and into the NE.
The WIND has also been unreal. We usually see 4-5 days of 70+ mph gusts but this year has been triple that including our airport setting a new all-time record of 92mph gusts.
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I follow a towtruck guy in Bend Oregon, he does heavy rescue and offroad recovery, typically 90% of his heavy rescue is trucks unable to make it up snowy mountain passes in the winter. He's had zero calls this winter and actually only had one day where there was enough snow for that to be a possibility. The offroad side is mostly driven by folks going down forest service roads that function as snowmobile trails during the winters and which GPS systems don't properly mark as closed to vehicle traffic. He's done 2 of those recoveries this year and one was done in a short sleeve shirt because while the vehicle had slid off an icy road a few days later when he was called to recover the vehicle it was 70 degrees up at elevation.
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Living in the pacific northwest, I noted the bizarre weather this winter. Either it was unseasonably warm, but as wet as normal, or cold as expected for winter, but unusually dry for days at a time during those periods. We did get a lot of rain in the lowlands, but its snowfall in the mountains that matters come summer.
I was vaguely worried back in February, now my vague anxiety is confirmed.
I was vaguely worried back in February, now my vague anxiety is confirmed.
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It’s been a terrible winter in Colorado. We’ve had erratic weather swings (72 F and sunny one day, 28 F and four inches of snow 24 hours later).
Wildfires are going to be awful this year.
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The visual for how the West's water policy will play out come from Dr Strangelove. Slim Pickens riding the bomb. How did that end, again?
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But they said climate change wasn't real!
The problem with reality is that if you keep ignoring it long enough it will hit you like a truck. And then it'll be much more expensive to fix stuff.
The problem with reality is that if you keep ignoring it long enough it will hit you like a truck. And then it'll be much more expensive to fix stuff.
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++. And our first 90+ degree days in March. I think we had maybe two notable snowfalls the entire winter where I am (near Boulder). I've lived here 15 years and been coming to CO for almost 30 and while I've witnessed some mild winters, never anything like this.
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This is gonna be disastrous in the summer here...
The snow pack is so bad here in WA, the ski resorts never fully opened the entire winter and only opened in late December.
There are areas in the north cascades where there's still suppose to be feet of snow, that are bare right now...
Eastern Washington is gonna have a hell of a drought year unless they're next to the Columbia pumping the river water...
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Our own record with greenhouse gases is far from spotless. Come 2029 we might be apologising to the US for electing an idiot. Let's try to keep a good relationship with the people of the US even when their current government is focused on damaging international relations.
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The temperature hasn’t been that out wack in the Pacific Northwest, though where I’m at we didn’t get any snow this year. What’s been really strange is the rain. Long periods of drought followed by repetitive atmospheric rivers overwhelming our systems. That’s not how the rain is supposed to fall here.
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Short answer is yes. I know of at least of research group based out of the University of Calgary that has been studying basically alpine hydrogeology in the eastern Rocky Mountains (which is also having a bit of a snow drought and an unseasonably warm winter).
In a nutshell, snow melt recharges local aquifers in high alpine basins that are primarily made of talus and rock blocks that erode from the nearby mountains. Ice that forms in these aquifers provide a somewhat steady supply to these alpine streams throughout the year until things freeze up. Recharge in these talus aquifers tends to be more rapid than aquifers with finer grained material.
Other research indicates larger flow systems through fractured bedrock such as near faults and bedding planes. These are regional systems that take a bit of water from the smaller and more local aquifers and transports them outside of the original watershed. These alpine and regional aquifers help support headwaters for many of the major river systems that municipalities and residents rely on for water supply.
Of course these water supplies are finite. If all the subsurface ice melts, then you don’t get a water supply throughout the year and is no different than having no snow. At best it buys time for more permanent and sustainable solutions. More fundamentally there needs to be an increased emphasis on water conservation and recycling.
The trouble is that whoever suggests it will face significant political blowback since no one really wants to change their lifestyles to adapt to upcoming climate realities.
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We are in bad shape and should be doing everything we can to switch from dumping carbon into the atmosphere to pulling it out. I’d hold my breath, until October if I could, when wildfire season around here ends. It might be ok, but it might be very, very smoky.
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Have a look at what's happening in Nebraska. Fire season has come early, and in places that are unaccustomed to it.
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yea that 90 day was one of the most concerning, breaking the record by 15 degrees. Also yea, only 2 snow storms of any slight substance the entire season near Denver. Went from having to use a gas snow blower I got a couple years ago for my old house in a snowier area (bit south) that I used probably 5-10 times last year, to using it all of once at a new place closer to the city.
Definitely have noticed the trend though, been here 20+ years now and when I first moved here we would have consistent snow once a week like clockwork once the pattern settled in. Did that for at least 5 years, then tapered off more and more
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This year is terrible but this has been happening our West for decades with winters getting warmer and dryer.
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Assuming we can fix it by that point, which is by no means likely.
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I'm in New England as well. We actually have a minor drought here but the amount of snow makes it feel like we've had good levels of regular precipitation even though we didn't.
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Not mentioned in this article is that there are negotiations going on right now over the Colorado River water allocations. The seven states (CA, AZ, NV in the lower basin, and NM, UT, WY, CO in the upper basin) were supposed to come to a reckoning last year about how to divvy up the dwindling water supplies in the west.
This winter should make it clear cuts are needed and any framework developed should be flexible to handle wild weather like when you have no snow.
This winter should make it clear cuts are needed and any framework developed should be flexible to handle wild weather like when you have no snow.
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Also very important is that this greatly reduces aquifer replenishment. Not going to be measurable this year, but down the road might hit hard especially if this is not a one-off but a long-term trend. Take the Ogallala for example:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/national-climate-assessment-great-plains’-ogallala-aquifer-drying-out
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/national-climate-assessment-great-plains’-ogallala-aquifer-drying-out
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Well...Temps have been a bit warmer in general here in the Eugene area but yeah the dry stretches have been very odd. Systems have repeatedly come in from the NW and rained little or not at all. Fire year is going to be terrible.
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I guess they only have data for 1991 and later. They are comparing 2025-2026 snow coverage to a median value between 1991 to 2020. Global warming probably started in the 1970s. So a median value between 1991 to 2020 might already be lower than it was 50 years or 100 years.
It's been a warmer winter for my local area too. Unfortunately, we will be saying it is warmer and warmer and warmer for the next 50 years at least.
Trying my best to prepare. Solar+storage, EVs, shading, insulation. It's a whole learning process. Trying to recover water from air conditioning system currently. Over last summer, my AC generated about 50 gallons a week. Future effort will be storing and treating more of it. Then have to figure out how to store it above our living level, couple it to the mains, etc.
With this super El Nino supposedly coming this year, I can see water rationing sometime over the summer. For the past 8 months or so, we would go weeks between rain, which is relatively atypical.
It's been a warmer winter for my local area too. Unfortunately, we will be saying it is warmer and warmer and warmer for the next 50 years at least.
Trying my best to prepare. Solar+storage, EVs, shading, insulation. It's a whole learning process. Trying to recover water from air conditioning system currently. Over last summer, my AC generated about 50 gallons a week. Future effort will be storing and treating more of it. Then have to figure out how to store it above our living level, couple it to the mains, etc.
With this super El Nino supposedly coming this year, I can see water rationing sometime over the summer. For the past 8 months or so, we would go weeks between rain, which is relatively atypical.
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I live in a suburb of Salt Lake City. Not many years ago ( 7 or 8?), the snow in my yard was deep enough that the little rage monster Chihuahua that lived in our home wouldn't go outside unless I cleared a path for him, and once in that path we couldn't see him from the back window because of the depth of the snow around that cleared path.
Now, I haven't even fired up my snow blower in 2 winters, and the one time there was enough snow to consider actually needing to clear the sidewalk, I did it with my leaf blower.
I'm worried.
More than that, I'm deeply frustrated by some of my neighbors and their "climate change isn't real things are always changing it's a scam we don't need to worry about the Great Salt Lake" etc. How do I be a kind and neighborly person and yet be able to point out that we really are hurting for water?
Now, I haven't even fired up my snow blower in 2 winters, and the one time there was enough snow to consider actually needing to clear the sidewalk, I did it with my leaf blower.
I'm worried.
More than that, I'm deeply frustrated by some of my neighbors and their "climate change isn't real things are always changing it's a scam we don't need to worry about the Great Salt Lake" etc. How do I be a kind and neighborly person and yet be able to point out that we really are hurting for water?
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I didn't realize the snow was that bad out west. Here in Northern Ontario Canada... we have haven't had snow fall like this in decades. It's been snowfall after snowfall. Snow banks 8ft high AFTER a round of removal... which was maybe 8ft high again.
Hope it isn't too bad for you guys out west!
Hope it isn't too bad for you guys out west!
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Extra bad timing, with low water levels, hydropower will be reduced so more electricity generation will need to happen by other energy sources especially for the Arizona - California region.
Oil and Gas are extra expensive now because of the Israel-Trump war on Iran.
Wind and Solar energy development is being restricted by Trump.
AI datacenters are increasing electricity demand.
This is just causing this massive electricity supply-demand gap that will push up prices.
Oil and Gas are extra expensive now because of the Israel-Trump war on Iran.
Wind and Solar energy development is being restricted by Trump.
AI datacenters are increasing electricity demand.
This is just causing this massive electricity supply-demand gap that will push up prices.
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The article missed a couple of points that add some context to what we are seeing:
As it noted, the weather in Washington and Oregon has been wet enough, just not cold enough. Those wet conditions travel up the Columbia/snake River valleys to the Yellowstone/Grand Teton area were it is high enough that it will almost always turn into snow. That is why the snow pack is at normal levels for those basins.
The snow pack is important because it functions like a temporary reservoir that keeps the man-made reservoirs full for a few months after the rains stop. That means if you just get wet winter weather, the reservoirs need to release water to keep the lake levels low enough so that they can provide flood control and that means later in the summer, the levels are a lot lower than required.
As it noted, the weather in Washington and Oregon has been wet enough, just not cold enough. Those wet conditions travel up the Columbia/snake River valleys to the Yellowstone/Grand Teton area were it is high enough that it will almost always turn into snow. That is why the snow pack is at normal levels for those basins.
The snow pack is important because it functions like a temporary reservoir that keeps the man-made reservoirs full for a few months after the rains stop. That means if you just get wet winter weather, the reservoirs need to release water to keep the lake levels low enough so that they can provide flood control and that means later in the summer, the levels are a lot lower than required.
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This is Trump's America, we can have our cake and eat it too. Dear Leader will simply declare there is no drought, then sign an EO to dump a bunch of water and declare the not-a-problem solved.
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Repetition.
These folks are continually fed Republican propaganda. The repetition and reinforcement is an incredible echo chamber. I don't think there is any real counter other than continual repetition of facts. One way or another, counter-programming means continuous repetition of facts.
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Those fearing a civil war might be blindsided by the water wars.
The saddest thing is that for the most part this can be preventable with responsible management and planning, but those are diametrically opposed to maximizing profit, so why manage river flows when you can sell aquifer rights to middle eastern companies to grow alfalfa?
The saddest thing is that for the most part this can be preventable with responsible management and planning, but those are diametrically opposed to maximizing profit, so why manage river flows when you can sell aquifer rights to middle eastern companies to grow alfalfa?
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Before I spent 40 years in coastal cities I grew up here in wildfire country and this year has me really stressed out. It doesn't help that between when I left and when I came back they built a huge new sprawl of ugly houses butting right up against the public land we border on the other side. Bunch of happy suburbanites with no fire sense but lots of BBQs, gasoline-powered toys, and kids with fireworks right next to a ponderosa pine forest.
Literally every day I think about how to defend my new house from wildfire. I wish I'd gotten the rainwater harvesting system in last year so I'd have 2500 gallons that don't rely on the pump getting electricity on hand. Schedule and budget meant I was lucky just to have gutters on the house before the crazy rains last fall that left the ground a mud bog for the next six weeks.
Literally every day I think about how to defend my new house from wildfire. I wish I'd gotten the rainwater harvesting system in last year so I'd have 2500 gallons that don't rely on the pump getting electricity on hand. Schedule and budget meant I was lucky just to have gutters on the house before the crazy rains last fall that left the ground a mud bog for the next six weeks.
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Out West, there's a saying: whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting over.
Looks like there's a heck of a fight brewing...
Looks like there's a heck of a fight brewing...
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https://theconversation.com/ca/republishing-guidelines
Because this is a republished article, theconversation.com requires it. Doesnt look like its tracking you, but rather tracking where the article has been republished.
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The Pacific Northwest doesn't end at the Cascades. It goes to the Rockies. And the temperatures we've had where I'm at have been really, really out of wack.
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There's already a fire burning south of here. It's gonna get real around here. Go-bags packed.
I call it the Endless October.
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